Happy Tuesday, baseball fans! Nick Marro here, providing you with my best bets for today’s (9/20) MLB slate. I plan to provide these ‘Nick’s Picks’ articles about twice a week for the remainder of the 2022 season. I don’t like playing heavy juice, so all of my picks will be priced at line of (-150) or better. Feel free to reach out to me on Twitter with any questions.
We turned in a 2-1 record last time out, so we improved to a 46-44 record on the season. Considering the brutal performance that I put up in April, things have been a lot better than they seem. We have a solid Tuesday slate here with a lot of quality spots to consider. Let’s finish the regular season strong.
Season Record: (46-44)
Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves @ 7:20 EST
Nick’s Pick: Atlanta Braves, Team Total Over 5.5 Runs (EVEN)
Simply put, Patrick Corbin has been one of the worst SPs in baseball this season. He comes into this start with a shaky 4.72 xFIP, allowing a .209 ISO to RHH. He allowed 5 ER the last time he faced these Braves at Home back on 7/15, and his 7.83 Road ERA is more than three full points higher than his 4.69 ERA at Home.
This Braves offense has been one of the best in baseball. They rank 3rd in Runs Scored with 726, second in HRs with 222, and second in SLG with .445. It’s a big number at 5.5, but I like the Over on the Braves team total here at an EVEN money price.
New York Mets @ Milwaukee Brewers @ 7:40 EST
Nick’s Pick: New York Mets, Money Line (-120)
Aaron Ashby is a talented young arm, but this will be his first start back off the IL since he last pitched on 8/19. He was terrible in August, allowing a combined 12 ER across his three starts. This Mets offense ranks 5th in the MLB with 702 Runs Scored this season. They rank 2nd in the MLB with a .332 OBP and they have scored 5+ Runs in four of their last five games played.
Carlos Carrasco has a respectable 3.95 xFIP on the season, and he’s holding both RHH and LHH to a sub .321 wOBA. He’s due for positive regression as he’s carrying a .331 BABIP and he’s generating ground balls at a near 50% Rate. Seeing as we’re getting them at a reasonable price of just -120, I’ll comfortably back the Mets on the Money Line in this match-up.
Seattle Mariners @ Oakland Athletics @ 9:40 EST
Nick’s Pick: Seattle Mariners, Run Line (-1.5) (-120)
JP Sears hasn’t been terrible, but he’s overdue for regression as his 5.47 xFIP is nearly two full points higher than his 3.90 ERA. He has allowed a combined 5 HRs across his last two starts and he has a terrible 9.75 ERA so far in the month of September. This Mariners offense has been solid against LHP all season. Their projected starting lineup has a respectable .174 ISO against LHP so far in 2022.
Luis Castillo comes into this start with an excellent 3.60 xFIP and a 27.4% K Rate. The Athletics projected starting lineup has a worse than 28% K Rate against RHP this season. They have a terrible .272 wOBA against RHP, and they rank 29th in the MLB with just 513 Runs scored in 2022. Given the exceptional -120 price on the 1.5 Run Line here, I’ll comfortably back the Mariners to cover.
-Nick Marro
Twitter: @NickMarroDFS