Happy Wednesday, baseball fans! Nick Marro here, providing you with my best bets for today’s (9/21) MLB slate. I plan to provide these ‘Nick’s Picks’ articles about twice a week for the remainder of the 2022 season. I don’t like playing heavy juice, so all of my picks will be priced at line of (-150) or better. Feel free to reach out to me on Twitter with any questions.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Yankees @ 7:05 EST
Nick’s Pick: New York Yankees, Team Total Over 4.5 Runs (-125)
Roansy Contreras has been pitching well lately, but he’s due for dramatic regression as his 5.14 xFIP sits nearly two full points higher than his 3.24 ERA. His 4.06 ERA in Night games sits more than two full points higher than his 1.95 ERA in Day games. He’ll be pitching in a packed Yankees Stadium tonight, and I’m not convinced he’ll continue to have the same success he has so far in September.
This Yankees offense ranks 1st in HRs this season with 233. They rank 2nd in OPS with a healthy .749, and they have scored 5+ Runs in seven of their last eight games played. I like the Over on their 4.5 Run Team Total here at a reasonable price of just -125.
Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers @ 8:05 EST
Nick’s Pick: Game Total Over 8.5 Runs (-115)
Tucker Davidson has allowed a combined 11 ERs over his past two outings. He comes into this start with a terrible 6.81 xFIP, a 1.78 WHIP, and a brutal 11.88 ERA so far in the month of September. This Rangers offense has been solid against LHP. Their projected starting lineup enters this match-up with an excellent .201 ISO against LHP this season.
Dane Dunning started the year strong, but he’s been struggling lately. He has seen his xFIP climb over 4.5 Runs. He has allowed at least 3 ERs in five of his last seven starts and he’s coming off back-to-back Home starts in which he allowed a combined 7 ER. This Angels offense has been seeing the ball better lately. I like the Over on the 8.5 Run Game Total here at a reasonable price of just -115.
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks @ 9:40 EST
Nick’s Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers, Team Total Over 5.5 Runs (+110)
Madison Bumgarner comes into this start with a terrible 5.57 xFIP. He’s allowing a .228 ISO to RHH and a near 46% Hard Contact Rate. He has allowed at least 4 ER in eight of his last nine appearances. He’s been considerably worse pitching on the Road this season and tonight he’s in a brutal spot against the Dodgers.
This Dodgers offense has been one of the best in baseball this season. They lead the MLB in OPS with a .788, OBP with a .337, and their projected starting lineup has a near .190 ISO against LHP since the start of 2021. It’s a big number at 5.5 Runs, but I like the Over on the Dodgers team total here at a plus money price of +110.
-Nick Marro
Twitter: @NickMarroDFS