UFC Vegas 106: Burns vs Morales Full Card Analysis

UFC Vegas 106: Burns vs Morales – 5.17.2025 – Fight Predictions and Analysis

Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC Vegas 106: Burns vs Morales. This should be a solid event here at The Apex in Las Vegas with a stacked main card. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick as our records will not reflect confidence in each selection. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few.

Current Record

• Anthony: 124-70-1 (Last Year 321-191-0, 63%)
• Nick: 123-71-1 (Last Year 316-196-0, 62%)

*Fight odds were last updated from Bet99 on 5-16-2025 at 10pm EST

Preliminary Card- Starts 4:00pm EST

Tecia Pennington -325 vs Luana Pinheiro +250

• Anthony: The card today begins at women’s strawweight with Luana Pinheiro set to face Tecia Pennington. After starting her UFC tenure 3-0, Pinheiro has dropped her last three fights after facing some higher level opponents. Pennington is another very tough matchup for Pinheiro who struggles with high volume strikers. This is a tough veteran opponent that will not allow her to coast to a very easy win. Pennington has always been one of the smaller strawweights but she is very strong in the clinch and when it comes to defending takedowns. Pennington has very active boxing and we should see her touch up Pinheiro considerably here. He has elapsed 80 significant strikes landed in both previous appearances, consistently pumping her jab and keeping pressure on opponents. Over the course of a three round fight Pennington will constantly be scoring favor with the judge’s thanks to her consistent offensive attacks. Pinheiro may steal a few moments with attempted takedowns or big strikes landing, but most minutes are going to be won convincingly by Pennington as she doubles up the overall volume. I am confident picking her to win here as the first fight of the night. Tecia Pennington by Decision
• Nick: When this fight is standing, Tecia Pennington is going to have a considerable advantage. She is excellent in the clinch, and she lands nearly five significant strikes per minute. She has excellent cardio and generally does a good job keeping pressure on her opponents. She is somewhat small for the division, but she has solid takedown defense and has been difficult to keep down if her opponents do find a way to take her to the mat. She’s coming into this fight off an impressive win over a former champion in Carla Esparza. Luana Pinheiro is 3-3 in the UFC, with wins over Sam Hughes and Michelle Waterson-Gomez. She is relatively well-rounded. She puts out decent volume on the feet and if she can drag her opponents to the mat she has dangerous offensive grappling ability. She’s coming off three consecutive losses for the first time in her career, and there’s a good chance she’ll be cut from the promotion if she can’t secure a win in this match-up. While the line does feel wide, I certainly see Pennington as the rightful favorite here. She’s difficult to takedown, the better technical striker in this matchup, and I expect she’ll have a considerable cardio and durability advantage as well. While I don’t like the price, Pennington is very clearly the side. She should be able to stay a step ahead no matter where this one goes. Tecia Pennington by Decision

Hyun Sung Park -190 vs Carlos Hernandez +155

• Anthony: Next is a matchup at men’s flyweight between Carlos Hernandez and Hyun Sung Park. This should be a competitive fight as Park looks to start facing more experienced competition. Park is undefeated at 9-0 but Hernandez is going to be his toughest test to date. Training with the team at Valle Flow Striking, Hernandez is a very good boxer. He keeps steady pressure throughout his fights and often lands good shots in combination. Hernandez has some deficiencies in terms of his overall grappling but Park is not necessarily an opponent that will shoot against him relentlessly. This will likely be a kickboxing match where Park should have the slight edge. The Korean is very slick with his hands, kicks and muay thai. Hernandez is comfortable at boxing range but Park does well blitzing into tight positions where he can land knees and strikes to the body. He is perhaps a bit more durable than Hernandez who has previously been finished twice before. I do not feel very confident picking this matchup but Park is the rightful betting favorite. Hernandez is 3-3 in the UFC and not a very dangerous opponent. Park should be able to put his striking skills on full display. Hyun Sung Park by Decision
• Nick: Hyun Sung Park enters this match-up off a win in his UFC debut, which came over Shannon Ross via KO. Park is 9-0, 29-years old, but it is notable he has been out of action since that debut win back in December of 2023. Park has surprising power for his frame. He’s unconventional in his approach to striking, but he’s very athletic and has a decent understanding of angles offensively. He does a good job circling away from the strengths of his opponent and when he enters the pocket he does so with conviction. He seems to have solid offensive grappling ability with a decent understanding of BJJ, and he doesn’t settle on his back if his opponents take him down. Carlos Herndandez is primarily a striker. He has excellent footwork, a high guard, and he throws very tight combinations in which he works well behind heavy kicks. His defensive grappling continues to improve, and he’s done fairly well at the UFC level securing a 3-3 record since he made his debut. This should be a competitive fight and I actually see Hernandez as the more technically sound fighter here. That being said, Park is going to have a considerable size and strength advantage. I expect the favorite will land the more impactful strikes here over the course of three rounds. Hyun Sung Park by Decision

Denise Gomes -700 vs Elise Reed +500

• Anthony: This fight comes at women’s strawweight between Elise Reed and Denise Gomes. Reed is a massive underdog in this fight although it is a position that she has been in before. Gomes is known for her big overhands and great power in this weight class. She has six career wins via knockout and often relies on that power very much to win. Reed is not a great technical striker but she is not afraid to engage opponents in a brawl. Gomes is much better in terms of connecting with her power shots and continuing to move forward. Reed is known for her toughness and durability, making this an interesting clash of styles. Gomes seems likely to finish Reed but knockouts do not materialize very often at 115 pounds. It would not surprise me to see Reed still standing in rounds two and three as Gomes continues throwing haymakers. I would not want to risk my money on Gomes -700 in a fight that she may not finish. She has fought to a decision in all three of her previous fights. She will put her hands on Reed throughout this fight and I expect her to win rather easily. Denise Gomes by Decision 
• Nick: Gomes fights aggressively, primarily as a striker, but she is far from technically refined. While effective on the offensive end, her mediocre footwork and head movement often leaves her in compromising positions defensively. She’s still making major improvements to all facets of her game at just 25-years old, but there’s no denying her skills are rough around the edges. She’s coming off a career best win over Karolina Kowalkiewicz in which she did appear to have made considerable strides in her technical abilities. It seems she’s settling into her frame, having better weight cuts, and it’s safe to expect we see the best version of her to date here as she takes on Elise Reed. Elise Reed is a tough and gritty military vet who is more than willing to take shots in order to throw them. She has decent footwork and her boxing is somewhat refined. She doesn’t carry much power, but she throws compact strikes and does a good job mixing kicks into her combinations. As good as she is on the feet, Reed’s defensive grappling is a major hole in her game. Additionally, she’s small for the division and she doesn’t really pack much of a punch. Even if she’s the better technical fighter here, I expect Gomes to overwhelm her whether on the feet or on the mat. Denise Gomes by Round Two KO

Luana Santos -185 vs Tainara Lisboa +150

• Anthony: This is a fight at women’s bantamweight between Luana Santos and Tainara Lisboa. Santos is moving up to compete at bantamweight here after previously fighting at flyweight. She may be a bit undersized at 135 pounds, but Santos is developing a very good skill set here early on. She is just 25 years old with consistent performances each time out. Santos’ last fight saw her come up short against Casey O’Neill. Lisboa is a more one-dimensional opponent and Santos can probably outwork her here to get back into the win column. A key is the recent activity of Santos compared to Lisboa who has not fought since 2023. I am tempted to pick Lisboa as the underdog in this matchup but I am not really sure what version of her to expect. She will likely have to knock off the rust early in this fight and secure takedowns in order to win. Lisboa is a purple belt in jiu jitsu but she also has quick hands and high volume striking. I think her size will prove to be an issue as she engages Santos on the mat with her submission attempts. She is going to make this a difficult fight to judge if it does go the full three round distance. On a card lacking quality underdog selections I will take my chances betting on Lisboa. Tainara Lisboa by Decision
• Nick: Luana Santos is 8-2 professionally and 3-2 in the UFC. While her skills are still far from refined, she is much more polished as a fighter than one might expect given the lack of depth to her resume. Her strikes are far from powerful, but she continues to show technical improvements in that facet of her game. She’s primarily a grappler with four of her eight professional wins coming via submission. She’s coming off a hard fought decision loss to a tough out in Casey O’Neill, a fight that took place at UFC 305 in August of 2024. Tanera Lisboa is 7-2 professionally and 34-years old. She is coming off back-to-back wins under the UFC banner, but she has been out of action since October of 2023. Lisboa is a Muay Thai style striker, who works well in the clinch. Her BJJ has evolved into a major weapon for her as well, but she does seem to find most of her success striking. Given the long layoff for Lisboa this is a tough fight to call. I slightly prefer the Santos side as she’s been more active and taking on a tougher level of competition. I expect she can work Lisboa to the mat here where her superior BJJ should allow her to control position. Luana Santos by Decision

Yadier del Valle -550 vs Connor Matthews +400

• Anthony: This is a fight at featherweight between Connor Matthews and Yadier del Valle. It is the promotional debut for del Valle who earned his contract last fall on Dana White’s Contender Series. He is undefeated, 8-0 with a very polished skillset. I am a fan of his offensive striking with big power for this weight class. While his best work is often done boxing, del Valle is also comfortable on the mat. He rolls with a great group of athletes training at Gracie Barra Houston. Matthews made his way into the UFC last year but he has come up short in both showings thus far. With losses against Jose Delgado and Dennis Buzukja by knockout, I worry about Matthews overall chin and durability. In his last fight del Valle won a convincing decision against a tough opponent in Antonio Monteiro. Matthews is not going to handle the power that del Valle will be throwing at him here. The punches come in long combinations for del Valle and I really like his dirty boxing against opponents in close range. I expect the Cuban to win this fight by knockout. I won’t be laying -550 to bet del Valle straight up, but I really love the price on his KO prop at +200 or better. Yadier Del Valle by Round Two KO
• Nick: Yadier Del Valle will be making his UFC debut here, coming off a solid decision win over Antonio Montero on the Contender Series. He is 8-0 professionally, and 28-years old. He’s an explosive athlete who can finish a fight on the mat or at striking range, but he’s somewhat unconventional in his approach. He throws from strange angles and he often stays in the pocket too long which leads to him eating counter shots. Still, he does seem to be making improvements from fight to fight, and he is entering his athletic prime. Connor Matthews is 7-3 professionally and 32-years old. He fights out of a solid camp via New England Cartel under Tyson Chartier. He’s well-rounded offensively, but finds most of his success on the mat as five of his seven professional wins have come via submission. Matthews is coming off back-to-back losses under the UFC banner and there’s a good chance he’ll be cut from the roster with a loss in this match-up. Matthews is tough and he’s willing to engage in a firefight, but his durability is questionable at best, and he likely won’t have the speed to keep up with del Valle here. While the line is wide, I expect the debutant to overwhelm his opponent in this one. This should be fun for however long it lasts, but I don’t expect it lasts for long. Yadier Del Valle by Round One KO

Jared Gordon -130 vs Thiago Moises +110

• Anthony: Next is a good bout at lightweight between Thiago Moises and Jared Gordon. It marks the 28th professional fight for both experienced veterans. A typical fight for Moises involves hunting takedowns and submission attempts against opponents on the mat. However, Moises has surprisingly not scored a takedown over his last six rounds in the cage. He was able to win his last bout with striking and intelligent control of Trey Ogden along the fence. I think this adaptation to his style could be good news as he faces Gordon here tonight. Jarden Gordon 62 percent takedown defense and throughout his career he has been tough to submit. While he should do well defending some early shots here, I find it hard to expect Gordon to really hold his own against such a high level black belt. Moises has only lost against upper echelon competition and I do not think Gordon will do much to challenge him here tonight. Moises is the more dangerous striker in this matchup too, likely throwing a lot of body kicks when these two are standing. His kickboxing has vastly improved and Moises now uses it to his benefit as opponents are often giving his takedowns too much respect. Gordon is durable and likely to fight to a decision here, I just find it very difficult seeing a path to win clearly as the betting favorite. Gordon has solid boxing skills but at this age he has begun slowing down. I do not like how hittable he is, giving Moises a chance to level the playing field when these two are standing and striking. Thiago Moises by Decision
• Nick: Jared Gordon is extremely well-rounded. He’s a gritty veteran, and he’s built a name on fighting competitively against a high level of competition.  Gordon works well behind his jab, he does a decent job closing distance to throw power, and he also does a good job timing takedown entries against a variety of his opponents. At 36-years old he’s one of the older fighters in the division, but he’s still a tough out for any lightweight outside of the top-15. Thaigo Moises is a jiu jitsu specialist. He has a black belt under Paulo Streckert and boasts eight professional victories by submission. He was formally ranked as a lightweight, with notable wins over Bobby Green, Michael Johnson, and Alexander Hernandez. His striking is fairly predictable, but he’s a talented grappler who can be dangerous on the mat against anyone. Moises is dangerous offensively, both at striking range and on the mat. That being said, he can be hittable in exchanges and his general wrestling ability seems questionable at best. Gordon has a solid submission defense. He also has the better cardio and durability in this match-up. This is a low confidence play, but I do expect Gordon can extend this fight and then take over late. He should be able to keep things standing and win the majority of the striking exchanges. Jared Gordon by Decision

Matheus Camilo -220 vs Gabe Green +180

• Anthony: This is a matchup at featherweight between Gabe Green and Matheus Camilo. We should be in for a striking battle here as Green welcomes Camilo to the UFC. Perhaps Green will take a more measured approach to this fight after being stopped by Bryan Battle his last time out. That previous appearance for Green lasted just fourteen seconds. Camilo is only 24 years old with a bright future ahead of him. He is a native of Rio de Janeiro but competing here stateside for the past few years. The level of competition has not been excellent but Green seems like an opponent that he can handle boxing against. Camilo has great kickboxing skills and more potent power than Green. He will likely be a step quicker in this matchup and more accurate when it comes to landing shots that matter. Green likes to move forward and challenge opponents with his pressure although skilled athletes can often catch him moving in. On average, Green is absorbing 6.95 significant strikes per minute. Porous defense has cost Green in the past and I think he will end up getting clipped again in this fight. His chin is often held high and exposed as Green switches from southpaw stance to the orthodox. It seems fair that Camilo is a short betting favorite here in his promotional debut. Matheus Camilo by Round Two KO
• Nick: Matheus Camilo will be making his UFC debut here, coming off a decision win over Dorobshokh Nabotov at ZFN 2. Camilo has fought for a variety of regional promotions taking on a decent level of competition, but nothing really near UFC level. He’s relatively well-rounded with four of his nine wins coming by KO and two coming by submission. At this point in his career it seems he prefers to fight at striking range, but he’s somewhat untested as a prospect so he’s a tough fighter to get a read on. Gabe Green has excellent cardio, he’s fairly well-rounded and he usually does a good job rolling with punches in exchanges. He is usually defensively sound and while he can be slow and plodding at times, he does do a good job throwing combinations once he can find proper openings. He was brutally KO’d his last time out, against a tough opponent in Bryan Battle. Green has been out of action since that fight which took place in May of 2023, and he’ll be moving down a weight class here after he had been outsized against most of his opponents at welterweight. This is a very tough fight to call as Green is moving down a weight class and he’s been out of action for more than two years. It’s also difficult to truly gauge Camilo as he’s making his promotional debut here. Given the general volatility here, Green feels like the value side. Gabe Green by Decision

Main Card – Starts 7:00pm EST

Melquizael Costa -175 vs Julian Erosa +140

• Anthony: The main card begins with featherweights Julian Erosa and Melquizael Costa. I was impressed by Costa’s performance in his last fight against Christian Rodriguez. The Brazilian was able to defend 9 of 15 total takedown attempts and landed double his opponent’s strikes. This is his third appearance already this year after winning bouts in February and March. Erosa is an interesting stylistic test for Costa given his reckless style and great finishing skills. I hope that Costa can stay out of trouble engaging with Erosa on the mat here. Costa has adequate jiu jitsu skills and I do not expect him to fall into Erosa’s neck attacks. Erosa has a very tight guillotine choke. Costa should be able to punish Erosa here with his striking, discouraging reckless attempts to close the distance and land his shots. Erosa has had five straight appearances end inside of round one. I expect Costa to be much more defensively responsible than Erosa in this fight. He should stick to a game plan, using his length to beat Erosa striking while eating minimal shots in return. I think he will be able to take over here after surviving an early scare from the underdog. Melquizael Costa by Round Two KO
• Nick: Melquizael Costa is an aggressive striker that fights at a very fast pace, but he does leave a lot of openings to be countered. His takedown defense is suspect at best, but he can be dangerous in scrambles and he generally does a decent job working his way back to his feet once he’s grounded. He is 23-7 professionally, coming off three impressive wins and carrying a lot of momentum into this match-up. It seems all facets of his game are improving at a rapid pace, and he’s currently one of the most active fighters on the entire roster with this already being his third fight of 2025. Julian Erosa is a well rounded veteran, with fourteen professional wins by submission and twelve by knockout. He is 31-11 overall, and his greatest quality as a fighter may be his willingness to eat shots in exchanges and keep pressing forward. He’s very game and gritty, but his durability has been in question at times as eight of his eleven professional losses have come via KO. These are two extremely aggressive fighters that are capable of finishing a fight everywhere. This is another volatile match-up, but I see Costa as the rightful favorite here. He’s the more potent striker in this match-up and it seems he’s closer to his athletic prime. Erosa is live for the upset if he can extend this one, but I expect he’ll be overwhelmed early here. Melquizael Costa by Round One KO

Nursulton Ruziboev -250 vs Dustin Stoltzfus +200

• Anthony: Next is a fight at middleweight between Dustin Stoltzfus and Nursulton Ruziboev. Stoltzfus has looked like an improved fighter as of late, winning his last appearance against Marc-Andre Barriault by knockout. He has alternated wins and losses throughout his previous six fights. I always considered Stoltzfus mediocre overall but his kickboxing has developed nicely and we are seeing more exciting brawls out of him now in general. Ruziboev has been a handful here at middleweight with his power and massive frame. Although Stoltzfus can likely hold his own against Ruziboev standing, he is going to get knocked out here if forced to engage in a striking battle for fifteen minutes. Ruziboev has won via finish in 33 of 35 professional victories. Stoltzfus will look to score takedowns here, forcing Ruziboev to defend on the mat. Ruziboev is confident in his own offensive grappling but we have seen him struggle in previous fights when put onto his back. If Stoltzfus is going to win here, he has to accrue a few minutes of control time early to wear on the gas tank of Ruziboev. The most likely outcome here is Ruziboev connecting with his hands and winning by early finish. He has 22 career wins in round one. I suggest betting on Ruziboev now that odds have closed to a more reasonable price of -250. Nursulton Ruziboev by Round One KO
• Nick: Nursulton Ruziboev is 34-9-2 professionally and only 31-years old. He has a long frame for the division and he’s dangerous everywhere offensively. He’s primarily a grappler with twenty professional wins coming via submission, but his three wins in the UFC have come via KO. Dustn Stoltzfus is primarily a grappler. He has a strong wrestling base and while his BJJ is still very much developing, he’s already shown an ability to find creative submissions with wins via both kneebar and twister. As impressive as this may seem, he’s only really been dominating on the ground against low-level competition. He’s hittable on the feet and tentative in exchanges. He has some power but it’s rare we see him in the pocket long enough to land it. He did secure an impressive KO win his last time out against Marc-André Barriault, but that fight was a complete firefight and he was nearly finished himself. The line feels wide here, but I do see Ruziboev as the rightful favorite. He is the more potent finisher, with more high level experience and he should have a considerable reach advantage. This is a low confidence play, but I’m siding with the favorite. Stoltzfus will be live for the upset if he can extend this one, but I expect he’ll have trouble closing the distance here. Nursulton Ruziboev by Round One KO

Mairon Santos -150 vs Sodiq Yusuff +125

• Anthony: This is a fight at lightweight between Mairon Santos and Sodiq Yusuff. Santos won in his last appearance but it was a controversial split decision against Francis Marshall. I was high on Santos going into that fight but his striking output did not shine in that matchup as I had hoped going in. Marshall was effective, scoring takedowns against Santos and limiting his offensive efficiency. I do not think Yusuff will wrestle much here after dealing with a lower back injury this fight camp. He is generally content with engaging his opponents on the feet with his superb striking. Yusuff is explosive with the power to score knockdowns and offensive boxing that is very tight. Santos is the more cerebral and technically skilled striker but Yusuff has survived many brawls and continues to hurt opponents with his hands. This seems like a big step up in competition for Santos who is still rather young. Yusuff is perhaps reeling a bit here off the back of two consecutive losses. He lost by knockout in his most recent appearance at UFC 300 and I am afraid he may be fighting outside of the top ten for quite a while. I think his health issues are the reason these two featherweights are fighting up at 155 pounds. Santos is the younger and more explosive fighter with better technical boxing skills. I am confident picking him here as the very slight betting favorite. Mairon Santos by Decision
• Nick: Mairon Santos secured a UFC contract when he defeated Kaan Ofli to win The Ultimate Fighter Season 32 tournament final at featherweight. He has since edged out a controversial decision over a tough out in Frances Marshall, a fight many felt he lost back at UFC 313 in March. He’ll be moving up a weight class here after struggling to consistently make weight at 145 lbs. He is a 24 year old Brazilian fighter that enters this match-up with a 15-1 professional record. Santos is primarily a striker who throws a lot of kicks to start his combinations. His footwork is sound defensively, but he has a habit of keeping his hands down which can lead to him taking a lot of damage from counter shots. He throws an explosive and effective leg kick, and he has already shown that he has true KO power in both of his hands. While there is no denying the fact he’s dangerous on the feet, his willingness to engage creates openings for his opponents to take him down. His defensive grappling is rapidly improving, but against powerful wrestlers he could have issues keeping his fights standing. Sodiq Yusuff has outstanding Muay-Thai striking ability. He’s well rounded, but he’s absolutely most comfortable fighting on the feet as six of his thirteen professional wins have come via KO. He has outstanding power, he is excellent in the clinch as he’s highly developed in his striking abilities. That being said, his durability has been on a bit of a decline. Similarly to Santos, he’ll be moving up a weight class for this fight. This is another volatile match-up in which I’m seeing value on the underdog. I’m concerned about Yusuff’s durability, but it could move with him moving up a weight class. Santos is talented, but still raw in his abilities. Yusuff has been tested against a much higher level of opponent. Sodiq Yusuff by Decision

Rodolfo Bellato -500 vs Paul Craig +350

• Anthony: The co-main event is a fight at light heavyweight between Paul Craig and Rodolfo Bellato. I am not surprised to see Craig moving back up in weight to take on Bellato here tonight. Craig is on a 0-3 skid competing down at middleweight. He matches up well with Bellato and at 205 pounds Craig’s cardio should be much improved. Bellato has not done enough to warrant such a steep price tag but the Brazilian is very technically skilled with good power and composure. Bellato normally fights with a rather steady pace, allowing opponents to walk themselves into his striking range. He does well throwing punches in combination and landing his more focused power shots. Craig has five career losses by knockout and a reputation of being easy to hit. Bellato should be able to put his hands on Craig and hurt him while this fight is upright. Craig may find some success grounding Bellato here but I seriously doubt he will find his way into sustained top position. Jimmy Crute did well grappling Bellato in his last fight but his wrestling is far superior to that of Paul Craig. It seems unlikely that Bellato falls into a submission that Craig throws up off of his back here. He should do well keeping composed throughout this matchup landing a lot of unanswered strikes. Rodolfo Bellato by Round One KO
• Nick: Rodolfo Bellato is 12-2-1 professionally, with seven of those wins coming via KO and four coming via submission. He is entering his athletic prime at 29-years old and he fights out of a solid camp via Team Nogueira in Brazil. Bellato is a kill-or-be-killed style fighter who tends to succeed in chaos. He nearly lost his promotional debut to Ihor Potieria, but after weathering an early storm, he managed to take the fight over and then as he scored a ground-and-pound finish in the second round. Bellato’s only professional losses came to a rising prospect in Vitor Petrino, but he mostly recently fought to a Draw in a somewhat sloppy fight against Jimmy Crute. Paul Craig has outstanding BJJ, with thirteen of his seventeen professional wins coming via submission. He attempted to fight at middleweight, but that venture resulted in three consecutive losses. He’ll be returning to light heavyweight here, which many feel is his natural and proper weight class. As talented as he is, there is no denying the fact that the 37-year old Craig is in the twilight of his career. His striking defense represents a major hole in his game, and while he does carry some power, his strikes are slow and predictable. He’s always live for an upset via submission, but Bellato is well-rounded enough that he should be able to stay safe if this fight hits the ground. I really don’t rate Bellato in terms of his trajectory in the division, but his physical advantages here should be enough to secure a finish. Rodolfo Bellato by Round One KO

Michael Morales -625 vs Gilbert Burns +450

• Anthony: The main event is a welterweight fight between Gilbert Burns and Michael Morales. The undefeated Morales enters here at 17-0. This is the fourth straight appearance for Morales fighting in The Apex. So far he has been looking the part, fighting well against opponents from differing skill sets and levels of experience. His last win against Neil Magny was very good, but otherwise Morales has not fought any high level foes. Burns is by far the most credentialed athlete he has opposed to date. Morales will want to hold his ground here anf fight Burns at kickboxing range. Morales attacks from the orthodox stance and averages 5.42 significant strikes landed per minute. Burns is capable of getting into brawls but against such a dangerous striker, he would be wise to take this fight to the mat. Thus far Morales has defended 95 percent of opponent takedowns. We have not seen him put into compromising positions on the ground at all during his career. Over the course of a five round fight, Burns should be able to convert a few takedowns and force Morales to defend his submission attempts. An intense matchup that involves much wrestling would likely cause Morales to fatigue. Burns is also a third-degree jiu jitsu black belt while Morales is a brown belt. Burns will struggle to find a submission against Morales in top position but throughout the fight I expect him to work his way to taking the back. I am willing to take a gamble on Burns here with betting odds so incredibly wide. He appears to be entering the fight in much improved shape and hungry to win after three straight defeats. Gilbert Burns by Round Four Submission
• Nick: Morales is only 25 years old, but he already fights with patience and poise. He is undefeated professionally with a 17-0 record, and he is 5-0 in the UFC. He has a decent wrestling base, but he certainly prefers to stand and trade. He does an excellent job mixing kicks into his combinations, he has excellent footwork especially defensively. While his volume on the feet can be low at times, his offensive strikes are both explosive and accurate. He is an underrated grappler with decent BJJ. He continues to show massive improvements fight to fight, but there’s no denying he’s taking a major step up in competition here against a tough vet in Gilbert Burns. Gilbert Burns is an extremely talented grappler with outstanding BJJ ability. His striking has come a long way over the course of his career, but he is looking to ground his opponents in most of his match-ups. He has nine professional wins via submission and seven via KO. He’s been competing against the class of the division, but there is no denying he’s in the twilight of his career. He has lost each of his last three fights, and he’s been out of action since September of 2024. Burns is the far more experienced fighter here and he’ll be live for a submission upset if he can secure a takedown early here. That being said, I expect Morales is simply too big and fast for him to close the distance against. The price here feels ridiculous given the discrepancy in experience, but Morales is the side. He should be able to wear Burns down as this fight enters the later rounds. Michael Morales by Round Four KO

-Anthony Marro

Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_

-Nick Marro

Twitter: @NickMarroDFS

Photo: UFC.com