UFC Vegas 95: Tybura vs Spivac II – 8.10.2024 – Fight Predictions and Analysis
Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC Vegas 95: Tybura vs Spivac II. We’re back for a slate of fights this weekend in Las Vegas headlined by a rematch at heavyweight. Our analysis includes a pick for every bout from Dynes Sports contributors Anthony Marro and Nicholas Marro.
As coverage continues, we will keep our records up to date below. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick though as records will not reflect confidence. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few.
Current Record
- Anthony: 199-120-0 (Last Year 307-199-6, 61%)
- Nick: 196-123-0 (Last Year 324-182-6, 64%)
*Fight odds were last updated from Bet99 on 8-9-2024 at 9pm EST
Preliminary Card- Starts 5:00pm EST
Stephanie Luciano -150 vs Talita Alencar +125
- Anthony: The event today starts with strawweights Stephanie Luciano and Talita Alencar. This is a rematch of a 2023 booking on Dana White’s Contender Series. That fight was ruled a unanimous draw. I have not been impressed with the unbeaten Alencar who still appears to be very one dimensional. She is a black belt and a six time jiu jitsu world champion. While Alencar’s early career saw her winning fights via choke, most opponents as of late have been keeping Alencar standing. The previous two fights for Alencar saw her fail on 28 of 33 attempted takedowns. Luciano is bigger than Alencar and I do not expect her to struggle defending against shots. Alencar has very rudimentary striking and presents little threat to Luciano on the feet. This should be a rather clear win here for the Brazilian. Luciano is confident in her judo and defensive grappling. This young prospect has a bright future that starts with a win here today. Luciano did very well keeping her distance from Alencar in their first meeting. Stephanie Luciano by Decision
- Nick: This fight is a rematch of a Contender Series match-up that resulted in a Draw back in September of 2023. In many ways this is a striker vs. grappler matchup. Alencar did well to get her grappling going early in that first meeting, but she gassed herself out to the point that Luciano managed to secure a 10-8 round against her in the third on her way to a Draw. Talita Alencar is coming off a narrow decision win over Rayanne Amanda in her UFC debut. Alencar is a credentialed grappler who has scored a submission in three of her five professional victories. She’s very dangerous if she can take her opponent to the mat, but she’s small for the division and her striking is far from refined. Additionally, she has had cardio issues on several occasions since she began fighting professionally. Stephanie Luciano will be making her UFC debut here, having not fought since her Draw with Alencar. Luciano is 24-years old and 5-1-1 professionally. She’s a high volume striker who fights at a torrid pace and does a good job keeping pressure on her opponents. She landed 5.80 significant strikes per minute in her first bout with Alencar, and it’s no secret that she’ll once again look to keep the fight standing in this match-up. This is a linear match-up, and I expect it will be competitive once again. That being said, I do slightly prefer Luciano as the favorite. I expect she’ll do a better job stopping early takedowns and she should once again dominate when this fight is at striking range. Stephanie Luciano by Decision
Youssef Zalal -480 vs Jarno Errens +360
- Anthony: This is a matchup at featherweight between Youssef Zalal and Jarno Errens. Zalal is coming off a great win over Billy Quarantillo in his return to the promotion this past March. He enters tonight on a four fight winning streak. His losses have also aged very well, coming up short in decisions against Ilia Topuria and Sean Woodson. While Zalal is of course confident in his kickboxing abilities, he will be levels above Errens if this fight does hit the mat. Errens’ upright, Dutch style leaves him susceptible to opponent’s attempts at his legs. I think Errens would fair well in a boxing match against Zalal but as these two begin to mix it up we will see some clear separation. Errens has allowed at least one takedown to each of his UFC opponents. Zalal should be confident in controlling Errens on the mat and completely neutralizing his offense. As these odds would indicate I am expecting a one-sided bout here. Youssef Zalal by Decision
- Nick: Youssef Zalal fights out of an excellent camp via Factory X. His coaches usually do a great job setting their fighters up for success, leaning heavily on gameplans that focus on the weaknesses of their respective opponents. Zalal was cut from the UFC back in 2022, but he has since returned to the promotion after securing three wins via finish fighting for Sparta Combat League and most recently finishing Billy Quarantillo via submission in his first bout back under the UFC banner. Zalal is well-rounded and dangerous everywhere. He’s made dramatic improvements since his first stint with the promotion, Jarno Errens seems relatively well-rounded when you watch him on film, but he really hasn’t been tested extensively against top level competition. He has a decent Judo base, but his defensive grappling ability seems to leave a lot to be desired. He has serious power for a featherweight, but he telegraphs many of his bigger shots which often leaves himself open to be countered. Errens is coming off his first UFC win, which came via decision over Steven Nguyen. The line does feel wide here, but Zalal is the more well-rounded fighter and I expect he’ll lean on his grappling here if and when he needs to. Errens will keep things interesting early, but I’m not confident in his ability to dictate the pace against a fighter like Zalal for fifteen minutes. Youssef Zalal by Round Three Submission
Karl Williams -210 vs Jhonata Diniz +170
- Anthony: This is a matchup at heavyweight between Jhonata Diniz and Karl Williams. We should be in for a fun clash of styles here as both men put their stellar records on the line. Williams has won three fights since joining the UFC, wrestling his opponents and finding himself in control of most bouts. He is averaging 1.58 takedowns landed per round. While he is not much bigger than Diniz, I think that Williams holds a decisive advantage over him. Diniz is a very talented kickboxer who has yet to prove capable of defending takedowns. As Williams applies pressure in this fight, we will see Diniz forced to move backwards and give up space. I expect to see the Brazilian’s offense here stymied as Williams again implements a game plan that will work. Diniz is an athlete that only transitioned to mixed martial arts two years ago. I think he gets smothered here by Williams, the much more complete fighter. A few big strikes may land for Diniz but Williams will not stand and bang with him for very long. Karl Williams by Decision
- Nick: Karl Williams is 10-1 professionally, coming off three consecutive wins under the UFC banner. He carries decent power on the feet, but he telegraphs many of his strikes and he certainly seems raw in most of his abilities when you watch him on film. He has found most of his success leaning on a grappling heavy game plan, and he’s one of the better young wrestlers in the division. Jhonata Diniz is 7-0 professionally, with all of his wins coming via KO. At 33-years old Diaz is getting a relatively late start to his MMA career, but he already has an extensive professional kickboxing background fighting for the likes of Glory and WGP Kickboxing. He’s coming off a win in his UFC debut over Austen Lane, a fight in which he was mostly out-grappled until he found a window for a timely KO. Diniz will certainly have a technical striking advantage in this match-up, but he’ll be considerably outclassed if this fight hits the mat. Given the low-level nature of this match-up, Diniz could be worth a bet as the underdog. Regardless, Williams has a very clear path to victory via his wrestling and off that alone he deserves to be favored. Karl Williams by Decision
Karol Rosa -180 vs Pannie Kianzad +150
- Anthony: The featured prelim is a women’s bantamweight matchup between Karol Rosa and Pannie Kianzad. This is an easy fight to handicap but I am not at all interested in betting on these women. Rosa is my slight preference here expecting these two to engage largely on the feet. If nothing else I can rely on Rosa for the more consistent offense and better optics for the judge’s to score. Kianzad is going to do okay in a standup bout but at range Rosa will be landing the better strikes. The Brazilian tends to throw leg kicks often and I think Kianzad will purely work with her hands and upper half. The reason I will not be betting on this matchup is due to the likelihood of a decision. Neither athlete has won by stoppage since joining the UFC. Rosa should do enough to convincingly win this bout but I worry about her leaving it in the hands of Las Vegas judge’s. I do not expect any decisive moments from either corner. Karol Rosa by Decision
- Nick: Karol Rosa has landed more than six strikes per minute in the UFC, and she also averages just under 1.4 takedowns per fifteen minutes. She is a well-rounded fighter, and she’s fought against a lot of top level opponents over the years.Rosa has solid footwork and she does a good job forcing her opponents to fight moving backwards. She’s not very powerful on the feet, but she works well behind her jab and she generally does a decent job on the feet in spite of the fact she is relatively short for the division. She’s a serviceable offensive grappler who tends to exploit her opponents weaknesses if they aren’t as well-rounded. Rosa is coming off a hard fought decision loss to Irene Aldana. Pannie Kianzad is a dangerous muay-thai style striker who does her best work in the clinch. She’s coming off back-to-back losses to Macy Chiasson and Ketlen Vieira. She is 16-8 professionally, with three of those wins coming via knockout. Kianzad has shown improvements in her grappling, but there’s no denying she prefers to fight on the feet. Rosa is inconsistent, but if she’s at her best I expect she can outclass Kianzad everywhere here. She’s a much better grappler and she’s consistently fought against a higher level of opponent. Karol Rosa by Decision
Main Card- Starts 7:00pm EST
Charalampos Grigoriou -260 vs Toshiomi Kazama +200
- Anthony: The main card opens with bantamweights Charlampos Grigoriou and Toshiomi Kazama. Both men are winless in the UFC with Kazama getting stopped twice since joining the promotion. I have concerns regarding Kazama’s ability to take a punch with three bad KOs already derailing his career. While Kazama is a skilled grappler with great intuition scrambling, his striking does not garner any respect. Opponents have been able to dictate the pace of fights with Kazama and prevent him from finding sustained success on the mat. Grigoriou is not a very high level athlete but I do think he is rightfully favored here. Compared to Kazama we have seen much better striking defense from Grigoriou. He has the better footwork and holds a speed advantage here striking against Kazama. I really like Grigoriou’s boxing fundamentals and trust him to put his hands on Kazama throughout this fight. Grigoriou has grown accustomed to stuffing takedowns and competing with opponents along the fence. He should eventually find space to work here and pull away from Kazama. This fight will become easier to win with every takedown that Grigoriou stuffs. Charalampos Grigoriou by Round Two KO
- Nick: Charalampos Grigoriou is 8-4 professionally, training at a quality gym in Longo and Weidman MMA. He is 32-years old and he was on a four fight win-streak, all via KO, prior to falling in his UFC debut against Chad Anheliger. Grigoriou’s best weapon is his powerful leg kick, but he mixes in his wrestling frequently, averaging 3.75 takedowns per fifteen minutes across his last two fights. Toshiomi Kazama is fairly well-rounded but he’s most comfortable grappling and chasing submissions. He seems decent on the feet, but his durability is questionable at best as he has lost via KO in back-to-back fights. This is a very low level match-up, which makes it a difficult fight to predict. I do expect Grigoriou can work behind his jab until he eventually breaks Kazama down for a finish. He should be the better technical fighter no matter where this one goes, I expect he’ll score a finish here as long as he survives early. Charalampos Grigoriou by Round Two KO
Yana Santos -150 vs Chelsea Chandler +125
- Anthony: Next is a matchup at bantamweight between Chelsea Chandler and Yana Santos. Chandler was a whopping five pounds over the limit at Friday’s weigh-ins and yet this fight will commence nonetheless. It is unprofessional for Chandler to be missing weight and I expect to see her cut without a victory here today. Chandler has only made the contracted limit once since joining the UFC. Santos is the much more skilled fighter in this matchup. She has far better striking than Chandler who competes with wayward boxing and very poor defenses. Chandler’s best work comes when grappling, an area she tends to excel given her size here at bantamweight. Santos will struggle to get up from underneath Chandler but every striking exchange should go the Russian’s way. I’d consider Chandler more seriously in this matchup if I knew she had the gas tank to go a hard three rounds. I did not like seeing her fade in the latter half of her last bout against Joisane Nunes. Chandler is a very live underdog here but Santos is the best bet at -140. The bad weight limit miss for Chandler again makes me worry about her cardio late. Yana Santos by Decision
- Nick: Yana Santos is well-rounded. She has crisp boxing and fights at an effective pace. She is coming off three consecutive losses for the first time in her career, but she tends to do well against anyone that isn’t ranked at the top of the division. At her best she strikes well at range and in the clinch. She’s a dangerous offensive grappler if her fights hit the mat, but she does make questionable decisions at times and she recently seems to be more hittable in lengthy exchanges. Santos does seem to be in excellent shape coming into this fight, which is understandable as she’s likely to be cut from the roster with another loss. Chelsea Chandler is just 6-2 professionally 6. Her record suggests she’s inexperienced, but she shows a well rounded game when you watch her on film. She has powerful boxing, dangerous BJJ, and her cardio seems solid as well. She is coming off a solid decision win over a tough out in Josiane Nunes. Chandler missed weight badly for this fight, so it’s tough to know where she’s at both physically and mentally coming into this matchup. I see Santos as the rightful favorite here in spite of her losing streak. She’s been inconsistent, but against a much tougher level of opponent than Chandler. Yana Santos by Decision
Chris Gutierrez -600 vs Quang Le +425
- Anthony: This is a matchup at bantamweight between Quang Le and Chris Gutierrez. The booking came together on short notice this week after Gutierrez was originally scheduled to face Javid Basharat. Le will be an easier draw compared to Basharat but he is still a skilled, undefeated opponent. Le has performed well in the LFA and seemed likely to join the UFC’s roster soon anyways. He is a very aggressive fighter who likes to engage with opponents right away on the feet. It would not surprise me to see Le have early success here against Gutierrez but the going will get tough for him as this fight goes late. Gutierrez has proven to be much more durable than the competition Le has thus far faced. I worry about the power that Le possesses, but he cannot compare to Gutierrez in terms of technical skill. The much better kicks will be landed by Gutierrez as he chops away at Le’s lower half. We will also see the much higher output from Gutierrez as each minute passes tonight. Chris has averaged higher than six significant strikes landed per minute over his previous three fights. I do not think it takes him more than ten minutes to find a finish in this one. Chris Gutierrez by Round Two KO
- Nick: Quan Le will be making his UFC debut here, taking this fight on less than a weeks’ notice as replacement for Javid Basharat. Le is 8-0 professionally, with his two most recent victories coming via KO. Le has primarily fought for a highly regarded regional promotion in LFA. He’s 32 years-old, fighting out of Vietnam. He’s primarily a striker with excellent power for the division, but he’s hittable in exchanges and often sacrifices defense to close distance and swing for the fences. Chris Gutierrez’s greatest strength is certainly his ability to throw devastating leg kicks. More than 50% of the strikes he’s thrown in the UFC are leg kicks and he’s shown he can utilize this attack effectively against a wide range of opponents. He is 8-2-1 across his last eleven fights, most recently falling to an elite opponent in Song Yadong via decision. Guiterrez’s leg kicks make him dangerous against anyone. Le will certainly be dangerous early here, but I expect Gutierrez to chop him down at distance until he eventually scores a knockout. Chris Gutierrez by Round One KO
Danny Barlow -400 vs Nikolay Veretennikov +300
- Anthony: This will be a welterweight contest between Danny Barlow and Nikolay Veretennikov. Due to a rib injury, Uros Medic was forced to withdraw from this matchup with Barlow. Now in steps Nikolay Veretennikov who will be making his promotional debut here on short notice. The Kazakhstani fighter has put together a tidy streak of wins, but his resume lacks much substance. Barlow was very impressive in his UFC debut. Not only was he able to stop Josh Quinlan by knockout but Barlow did so after injuring his arm in the fight’s first round. Barlow has thunderous power in his left hand and opponents cannot afford to be there when his strikes begin to land. Veretennikov may be confident in his technical striking but he is not nearly as dynamic or accurate as Barlow. Veretennikov also lacks the wrestling skills to smother Barlow on the mat. He may look to mix things up but this will largely be a fight contested at kickboxing range. Barlow will take an early lead in this matchup and touch up Veretennikov as the fight plays out. Look for Barlow to find an early home for his jab, opening up more prolonged offensive combos. I like his chances a lot here given the short notice booking. He will have a five-inch edge over Nikolay in terms of his reach. Danny Barlow by Round Two KO
- Nick: Nikolay Veretennikov will be making his UFC debut here, filling in as a replacement for the injured Uros Medic. He is 34-years old and 12-4 professionally, coming off three straight wins via finish for United Fight League. Veretennikov is primarily a striker, but he’s capable of finishing a fight from anywhere. He’s been impressive so far regionally, but he’s really only fought against a low level of opposition outside of his Contender Series loss to top prospect Michael Morales. Barlow is 8-0 professionally, with five of those wins coming by knockout one via submission. Five of Barlow’s last seven wins have come by round one KO. Barlow is one of the more highly regarded prospects in the division, coming off an impressive win over Josh Quinlan in his UFC debut. The 29-year old striker generally does a good job using his 79” reach to frustrate opponents. He does a good job setting up his power shots and the power in his left hand is heavy. He has excellent footwork, and his speed and athleticism make him a difficult fighter to take and keep down. Both of these fighters have KO power, but Barlow is the quicker and more explosive of the two. The line feels wide as Veretennikov has been relatively impressive on the regional scene, but this matchup feels like a bit too much too soon for him to be taking on short notice. I expect this fight mostly takes place at range, where Barlow should show a considerable advantage. Danny Barlow by Round Two KO
Chepe Mariscal -210 vs Damon Jackson +170
- Anthony: The co-main event is a fight at featherweight between Damon Jackson and Chepe Mariscal. Unfortunately Mariscal was more than three pounds heavy at weigh-ins yesterday. It is a shame for Chepe who has really looked good since joining the UFC. Through three wins we have seen not only Mariscal’s thudding power but also some skill displayed on the mat. Jackson will certainly look to test Mariscal’s takedown defense as he creates chaos in this fight’s first round. Jackson is known for always closing the distance and applying early pressure to opponents. He would much rather fight Mariscal while controlling the octagon rather than on the retreat. Jackson could implement this game plan effectively but it will not be easy to walk into Chepe’s power. Jackson is not known for being very durable while Mariscal is terribly hard to stop. I think big shots will connect early here for Marisal, changing the complexion of this fight. Jackson should be targeted here as a live bet only if he can survive round one. Chepe Mariscal by Round One KO
- Nick: Damon Jackson finds most of his success on the ground, with eight of his last thirteen wins coming via submission. Jackson is a dangerous fighter offensively. He does a good job targeting the weaknesses of his opponents, but his striking defense and general durability have proven to be more of a weakness than a strength. He’s coming off an impressive win via decision over Alexander Hernandez, having now won five of his last seven fights under the UFC banner.Chepe Mariscal is 16-6 professionally, coming off three consecutive wins under the UFC banner. He is well-rounded, but he mostly prefers to stand and trade on the feet. He has a solid chin and fights at an impressive pace, and his professional wins have almost exclusively come to UFC level opponents. He continues to improve at 31-years old and fights out of an excellent camp via Elevation Fight Team. This should be an excellent and competitive fight for however long it lasts, so I’m comfortable taking a shot on the underdog here. Mariscal missed weight for this fight and looked terrible on the scales. If he’s not at his best I expect Jackson could potentially catch him off guard. Damon Jackson by Round Two Submission
Serghei Spivac -155 vs Marcin Tybura +130
- Anthony: The main event is a heavyweight fight between Marcin Tybura and Serghei Spivac. This is a rematch of a 2020 bout that saw Tybura win by unanimous decision. Tybura accrued more than eight minutes of control time in that fight despite landing only two of eight attempted takedowns. His best work came raining heavy blows on Spivac from a mounted position. Tybura used that win to springboard a streak of five in a row that landed him in the rankings. Both men have appeared in main events since but neither is the most reliable or skilled. Spivac seems to be the more improved athlete since these two first met but I find it hard to imagine him winning this bout comfortably today. It will be very difficult for Spivac to gain dominant positions grappling against Tybura. I do not trust his wrestling to hold up for a few rounds against an opponent that is significantly heavier. Spivac will need to rely on his striking to win this fight and that has never been his calling card. It is a poor stylistic matchup and I am surprised to see Spivac favored as these two run it back. I am picking Tybura as the underdog and predicting this fight to end inside the distance. Marcin Tybura by Round Three KO
- Nick: We have a fun heavyweight match-up that is a rematch of a fight that took place back in February of 2020. Tybura won via decision in that instance, but there is no denying both of these fighters have greatly improved since then. Sergey Spivak has an excellent ground game for a heavyweight. Most of his wins have come via submission or ground and pound. He’s decent at striking in the clinch, but seems overly hesitant at times which can allow inferior opponents to stay in fights he should be dominating. Spivak averages more than three takedowns per fifteen minutes. Marcin Tybura is decent on the feet, but most of his success has come via his wrestling. Tybura is a BJJ black belt and one of the better offensive grapplers in the division. His career does seem to be on a bit of a decline, but he’s really only fallen to the best fighters in the division. He is coming off an impressive submission win over Tai Tuivasa, and he’s going to be the much bigger fighter in this match-up. For some unknown reason, Spivac slimmed down for this fight. Tybura is going to be difficult for him to take down and I expect he’ll be a step behind on his feet. Additionally, Tybura has shown to have better cardio. It feels like we’re getting solid value on the underdog here. Marcin Tybura by Round Three KO
-Nick Marro
Twitter: @NickMarroDFS
-Anthony Marro
Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_
Photo: UFC.com