Happy Friday, baseball fans! Nick Marro here, providing you with my best bets for today’s (7/15) MLB slate. The weather continues to heat up across the league and there’s already a lot of clear value as the markets are still slow to adjust. I plan to provide these ‘Nick’s Picks’ articles about twice a week for the entirety of the 2022 season. I don’t like playing heavy juice, so all of my picks will be priced at line of (-150) or better. Feel free to reach out to me on Twitter with any questions.
We turned in a 2-1 record last time out, so we improved to a 29-28 record on the season. Considering the brutal 0-6 start, things have been a lot better than they seem. We have a solid Friday late here with a lot of quality spots to consider. Let’s continue to build momentum tonight as we head into the dog days of summer.
Season Record: (29-28)
Kansas City Royals @ Toronto Blue Jays @ 7:07 EST
Nick’s Pick: Toronto Blue Jays, Team Total, Over 5.5 Runs (-105)
Zack Greinke has dramatic Home/Road splits this season, as he’s posted an excellent 1.86 ERA at Home and a terrible 7.46 ERA on the Road. He’s barely missing any bats, carrying an ugly 12.5% K Rate as well as a terrible 7.6% Swinging Strike Rate on the season. I expect that spells trouble for him here against a potent Blue Jays offense that ranks 2nd in the AL in SLG with a .432.
Toronto’s projected starting lineup has a solid .186 ISO against RHP since the start of 2021. They rank 2nd in the MLB in Home OPS with an excellent .799. There’s absolutely no value on the Blue Jays money line in this match-up, as it has inflated to -335. Instead, it makes more sense to take the Over on their team total, which is set at 5.5 Runs and a near even money price of -105.
Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins @ 8:10 EST
Nick’s Pick: Game Total, Over 8.5 Runs (-135)
While there’s no denying the White Sox offense has been disappointing this season, they have continued to find success against left-handed pitching. They have an MLB best .459 SLG against LHP in 2022. They also lead the league with an .804 OPS against lefties as well as a .288 Batting Average. They’ll be taking on lefty Devin Smeltzer in this match-up, who comes into this start with a terrible 5.63 xFIP. He’s allowing a worst than .200 ISO to both RHH and LHH, and he’s allowed a combined 10 ER across his last two starts.
Michael Kopech is a talented young arm, but he’s yet to find his groove in 2022. He comes into this start matching Smeltzer’s 5.63 xFIP, due for major regression as he’s carrying a .208 BABIP. While each of these offenses have been underperforming in terms of season-long production, there is no denying they have excellent upside in this match-up. I’ll happily play the Over on the game total here at 8.5 Runs, at a solid price of -135.
Oakland Athletics @ Houston Astros @ 8:10 EST
Nick’s Pick: Houston Astros Team Total, Over 4.5 Runs (-110)
Cole Irvin has dramatic Home/Road splits this season, as he’s posted an excellent 1.68 ERA at Home and a terrible 5.27 ERA on the Road. He’ll be away from RingCentral Coliseum in this particular match-up, against a potent Astros offense in Houston.
The Astros projected starting lineup has an excellent .201 ISO against LHP in 2022. Irvin has posted an ugly 5.18 combined xFIP, and he’s allowing a spotty .178 ISO to RHH. The Astros offense has the 6th best OPS in baseball with a .746. Their team total is set at 4.5 Runs, I’m loving a play on the Over at a near even money price of just -110.
-Nick Marro
Twitter: @NickMarroDFS