Well, Pierre Dorion just did that. Two-time 40 goal scorer Alex Debrincat is coming to the nation’s capital, at the ripe age of 24. The left winger has played 5 seasons and has hit 40 goals twice. Over his first 368 games, he amassed 160 goals, averaging out to a 36-goal pace over an 82-game schedule for his young career.
One would expect an elite player like Debrincat to fetch a king’s ransom, especially when he puts up those types of numbers. Before the trade was made, this was what I would have expected Chicago’s ask in any potential deal with Ottawa to be:
- 2022 1st round pick (7th overall)
- 2023 1st round pick (top 3 protected)
- Ridly Greig/Shane Pinto
- One of the 2022 2nd round picks (39th overall or 64th overall)
- 1 B level prospect (Egor Sokolov, Roby Jarventie, Tyler Kleven etc)
However, the trade for Alex Debrincat was as followed (courtesy of CapFriendly):
The fact that Pierre Dorion didn’t have to give up any organizational players is, frankly, some of his best work yet. The impact DeBrincat will have on this young Senators team will be immediate, but also likely played a large role in enticing Claude Giroux to sign on the dotted line a few days later as well.
Benefits:
- He is a confirmed regular season performer
The Ottawa Senators have missed the playoffs for the past 5 years, but this is the type of player that will get you into a top 8 spot. As we saw this year, the Florida Panthers climbed to the top of the standings due in large part to their goal scoring abilities. Even if he isn’t a 40-goal scorer right away, a safe “floor” for the former Blackhawk is 30 goals in year one.
- He will bring fans to the building
Other than perhaps the ill fated Matt Duchene deal, this is the highest profile player the Ottawa Senators have brought in since Bobby Ryan in 2013. He’s a skilled, offensively gifted forward who is going to create a better fan experience for casual fans. The buzz in the city at the moment is real. Expect to see a lot of Stutzle backdoor passes to Debrincat this season, not unlike what Chicago fans became accustomed to with Patrick Kane setting up the former Erie Otter.
- Offensive pressure
The Senators were 21st in shots for this year, with an average of 30 shots a game. They were also 27th in shots against, with 33.4 against on average. Since 2017-18, Debrincat is 24th in shots for in the league. More offensive zone pressure, and a more balanced lineup will result in Ottawa having one of the most talented top six groups in the league.
- The powerplay
This year, the Senators had the 20th ranked powerplay. On most nights the first powerplay unit consisted of: Josh Norris, Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stutzle, Drake Batherson and Thomas Chabot. They recorded 36 powerplay goals as a group in 2021-22. The rest of the team had 11. Adding Debrincat will kick one of the 4 forwards off the first powerplay unit, but it also will allow DJ Smith to roll out two competent powerplay units. Something he hasn’t the luxury of doing during his tenure with the Sens thus far.
- Health
An underrated part of Debrincats’ game is his durability, especially considering his size. Despite putting up amazing OHL stats, he still slipped to the 2nd round because of his small stature at 5’7”. Although he only tips the scales at 165 pounds, DeBrincat has only missed 4 games in his first 5 years. Sometimes the best ability is availability when it comes to the rigors of an NHL schedule.
The potential downside:
- Chemistry
As everyone knows, Alex Debrincat and Patrick Kane formed one of the better duos in the NHL. They played a style that few defensemen could handle. Debrincat and Kane both play their off wings, which makes it very hard for defensemen to read their plays. Most of the time, Kane will hold on to the puck on the right side with his left shot. This allows him to see all of the ice, including Debrincat sneaking down the far side most nights. Since Kane is a dual threat to shoot or pass, it’s extremely hard to defend a superstar like that. This left Debrincat with plenty of great opportunities on the left side.
Now, I’m not saying Debrincat’s production will suddenly fall off a cliff because of his separation from Kane. But it could take some time for him to gel with new linemates Tim Stutzle and Claude Giroux.
- Next Contract
Right now, Debrincat has a $6.4M cap hit for the upcoming 2022-23 season. If he signs a 1-year deal for 2023-24, then that will take him straight to the unrestricted free agent market where anyone can pay for his services. In a worst-case scenario, Debrincat will likely be an Ottawa Senator for 2 seasons. Unless of course the Sens ink him to an extension before that. General Manager Pierre Dorion will have to plan this out though, because Josh Norris will need to be extended this summer and Tim Stutzle’s ELC comes to an end following the upcoming season as well.
All that being said, these are first world problems to have without a doubt. Whether Debrincat stays short or long term, one could make the argument he’s the best goal scorer this team has acquired since Dany Heatley.
And if he clicks immediately with Stutzle and Giroux, then perhaps Sens fans could be in store for the Pizza Line 2.0 this fall.
-Damian Smith
Twitter: @Damian__Smith