Happy Saturday, baseball fans! Nick Marro here, providing you with my best bets for today’s (7/30) MLB slate. We’re approaching the trade deadline, the weather is still heating up, and there’s a lot of clear value across the board as the markets are slow to adjust. I plan to provide these ‘Nick’s Picks’ articles about twice a week for the entirety of the 2022 season. I don’t like playing heavy juice, so all of my picks will be priced at line of (-150) or better. Feel free to reach out to me on Twitter with any questions.
We turned in a 2-1 record last time out, so we improved to a 34-32 record on the season. Considering the brutal performance that I put up in April, things have been a lot better than they seem. We have a solid Saturday slate here with a lot of quality spots to consider. Let’s continue to build momentum tonight as we work through these dog days of summer.
Season Record: (34-32)
Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros @ 7:10 EST
Nick’s Pick: Houston Astros, Team Total, Over 4.5 Runs (EVEN)
Chris Flexen comes into this start carrying an ugly 5.75 xFIP on the season. He’s allowing a .204 ISO to RHH and he’s due for considerable regression as his xFIP sits two full points higher than his 3.75 ERA. He usually does a decent job keeping the ball down in the zone, but he’s in a very tough spot here against an Astros offense that ranks 3rd in the MLB in HRs.
Houston’s projected starting lineup boasts a .200 ISO against RHP in 2022. They’re coming off an eleven run performance in which they taxed this Seattle bullpen. They’ve scored the 3rd most runs in baseball in July with 132, so I really like the value of their team total Over 4.5 Runs at a price of EVEN money.
St. Louis Cardinals @ Washington Nationals @ 7:15 EST
Nick’s Pick: St. Louis Cardinals, Team Total, Over 4.5 Runs (-145)
Erick Fedde has been struggling of late, carrying a 5.35 xFIP on the season, having allowed 13 combined ER over his last three outings. He’s barely missing any bats, as is evident by his terrible 7% Swinging Strike Rate in 2022. Moreover, he’s boasting a terrible 7.11 ERA across four starts in July.
The Cardinals have scored 6 Runs in back to back games and 141 Runs in the month of July. They continue to boast one of the more dangerous lineups in baseball, and with the return of Tyler O’Neill they should continue to improve on their already solid numbers as a team. We’re getting a reasonable -145 price on the team total Over 4.5 Runs here. I’ll happily back this offense on that number against Fedde and a spotty Nationals bullpen.
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies @ 8:10 EST
Nick’s Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers, -1.5 Run Line (-150)
Clayton Kershaw comes into this match-up boasting an excellent 3.49 xFIP and a 27.4% K Rate on the season. He’s holding both RHH and LHH to a sub .290 wOBA and he’s been solid on the Road as is evident by his 2.20 Road ERA. This Rockies offense can be dangerous against LHP, but they have only scored an average of 2.75 Runs across their last four games in Coors.
Kyle Freeland comes into this start with a 5.10 xFIP, allowing a .224 ISO to LHH. The Dodgers projected starting lineup has an excellent .200 ISO against LHP since the start of 2021. They have scored the 2nd most Runs in baseball in July with 137 and they have an MLB-best .778 OPS on the season. While it wouldn’t shock me to see Kershaw allow a few runs here, I fully expect the Dodgers’ offense to outpace the Rockies. At a reasonable price of -150, I’ll take the Dodgers to cover their -1.5 Run line.
-Nick Marro
Twitter: @NickMarroDFS