UFC 277 Analysis & Betting Guide

UFC 277: Pena vs Nunes II – 7.30.2021 – Fight Predictions and Analysis

Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC 277: Pena vs Nunes II. Here we have yet another excellent UFC event after the successful card in London last week. This event is headlined by two bouts with championship gold on the line. Our analysis includes a pick for every bout from Dynes Sports contributors Anthony Marro and Nicholas Marro.

As coverage continues, we will keep our records up to date below. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick though as records will not reflect confidence. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few.

Current Record

Anthony: 194-110-0 (Last Year 299-200-5)
Nick: 194-110-0 (Last Year 305-194-5)

*Fight odds were last updated from Bet99 on 7-30-2022 at 5pm EST

Early Prelims- Start 6:00pm EST

Orion Cosce -200 vs Blood Diamond +160

Anthony: The card today opens with a welterweight matchup between Orion Cosce and Blood Diamond. One of the weight misses yesterday was Cosce who was more than one pound heavy. I do not think that ends up affecting the outcome of this fight, but a tough cut could ultimately sap his cardio in rounds two and three. Both these men lost their UFC debuts, with Blood Diamond getting quickly submitted at UFC 271 this winter. He is a talented kickboxer but lacks experience in mixed martial arts, having only three professional wins. Cosce can wrestle well offensively. He trains out of Team Alpha Male and the plan for this fight will likely be taking Blood Diamond back to the ground. He is the rightful favorite and should win this fight convincingly if successful getting to a position of control. Mathetha is a legitimate threat on the feet given his high accuracy and wide arsenal of kicks. If he were to land big and finish Cosce I would not be surprised. It is one of many compelling stylistic pairings on this card but I think the better grappler ends up getting the win. Orion Cosce by Round Two Submission
Nick: Blood Diamond is coming off an ugly loss to Jerimiah Wells in his UFC debut. He is just 3-1 in professional MMA competition, but he’s had more than 100 professional kickboxing fights, so on the feet he’s extremely advanced. He does an excellent job utilizing kicks to control range. He’s flashy with a lot of power in all of his limbs, and he’s shown a solid chin and durability as well. That being said, he is hardly a competent grappler at the UFC level. As we saw in his debut, he’s very easy to take down and he’s there to be submitted once his fights hit the mat. If Blood Diamond can keep this fight standing, I expect he outclasses Cosce. However, the likelihood of his ability to do so seems very low. Cosce has a very low center of gravity and explosive hips. He does a good job mixing up his striking and his grappling, and while he may have trouble on the feet here against a long opponent in Mathetha, he should be able to use his frame to stay low and score takedowns. Cosce was a state champion high school wrestler. We saw Blood Diamond dominated on the mat against a mediocre grappler in Jeremiah Wells, so I fully expect Cosce to have his way with him here. The most likely outcome seems to be Cose by ground-and-pound knockout. Orion Cosce by Round One KO

Nick Negumereanu -125 vs Ihor Potieria +100

Anthony: Next we have a fight at light heavyweight between Ihor Potierira and Nick Negumereanu. This is the UFC debut for Potieria who won a contract on Dana White’s Contender Series last fall. He has been victorious in seventeen consecutive fights, but the level of competition has only recently started to improve. Negumereanu is by far his toughest test with a clean record and three wins since joining the promotion. He is not as explosive as Potieria on the feet but he does have good forward pressure and volume. Negumereanu also does well controlling opponents against the cage and in occasional exchanges on the mat. This feels like his fight if successful staying out of early danger. Potieria is accustomed to finishing fights quickly and I think he will really fatigue if Negumereanu keeps him on the back foot and defending. I worry about Potieria landing big in every exchange but this feels like a straightforward bet on the more proven commodity in Nicu. I expect him to make this ugly and win like he did recently against Aleksa Camur and Kennedy Nzechukwu. Nick Negumereanu by Decision
Nick: Negumereanu finds most of his success keeping pressure on his opponents. He has an excellent chin, a decent jab, and underrated wrestling ability. He hasn’t relied much on grappling at the UFC level, but he would be wise to lean on that part of his game here against a dangerous striker in Potieria. Ihor Potieria will be making his UFC debut here, coming off an impressive Contender Series win via KO over Łukasz Sudolski. Similar to Negumereanu, he does a good job keeping pressure on his opponents. He’s primarily a brawler with dangerous striking ability. He seems competent as a grappler, but he really hasn’t been tested extensively at this level. He is explosive in open space and striking out of breaks, but he seems far from refined in terms of his footwork and head movement. Potieria is certainly live for an early KO here, but beyond that I expect Negumereanu to outclass him. He should be the sharper striker in this matchup, and if he chooses to lean on his grappling he could very easily dominate. Either way, I prefer the experience and more well-rounded Negumereanu in this spot. Nick Negumereanu by Decision

Joselyne Edwards -125 vs Ji Yeon Kim +100

Anthony: This is a women’s bantamweight matchup with Joselyne Edwards taking on Ji Yeon Kim. Yesterday, Edwards was more than a pound heavy at weigh-ins. She fought and won at featherweight last month but now makes the more strenuous cut. I’m skeptical what effect, if any, that will have on the outcome of a matchup like this. These are two fighters that usually look to fight at kickboxing range. Kim has porous takedown defense and has lost three in a row as a result of her grappling deficiency. If Edwards does not elect to shoot, this will be a very competitive back and forth between high volume strikers. Kim lands just shy of six significant strikes per minute. Moving up I think Kim can put it on Edwards and set a pace that she does not meet. It Is one of my least confident picks, but Kim is my lean to take this one. Ji Yeon Kim by Decision
Nick: Ji Yeon Kim is well-rounded with an extensive background in multiple disciplines. She’s solid pretty much everywhere, but she has found most of her success on the feet. Joselyne Edwards is a Muay Thai style striker who finds most of her success striking both at range and in the clinch. This is a relatively even matchup and a tough fight to predict. Edwards is taking this fight on short notice and she missed weight after what appeared to be a difficult weight cut. Each of these fighters average more than five significant strikes landed per minute, but Kim also absorbs more than five per minute compared to 3.27 for Edwards. I have little confidence in either fighter here, but I’ll side with the more defensively sound striker in Edwards here. Kim will have her moments, but I expect she takes the more significant damage in exchanges. Joselyne Edwards by Decision

Michael Morales -650 vs Adam Fugitt +435

Anthony: The early prelims close with this welterweight fight between Michael Morales and Adam Fugitt. This will be the UFC debut for Fugitt who steps in on short notice to replace an injured Ramiz Brahimaj. It feels a bit like a mismatch given the recent performances of both men. Fugitt knocked out Solomon Renfro earlier this year but that was his most recent bout since a 2019 appearance. Morales has accrued seven wins since then and his stoppage of Trevin Giles was the best one yet. This kid proved to be a real striking threat with that knockout, finishing a legitimate welterweight just six months ago. Drawing into Brahimaj highlights just how high Morales’ ceiling is. He should roll through Fugitt here, a fighter ten years older than him with five fewer wins. Fugitt is not some grappling ace that can stymie or slow Morales’ pressure. He will get stuck striking for longer than needed in this bout, and ultimately I see a finish materializing fast. There is a good reason Morales is the biggest favorite on this card. Michael Morales by Round One KO
Nick: Morales is only 23 years old, but he already fights with patience and poise. He has a decent wrestling base, but he certainly prefers to stand and trade. He does an excellent job mixing kicks into his combinations, he has excellent footwork especially defensively, and his offensive strikes are both explosive and accurate. He is an underrated grappler with decent BJJ, which could present a clear path to victory for him in this spot. Adam Fuggitt will be making his UFC debut here, coming off an impressive comeback win over a highly regarded prospect in Solomon Renfro. Fugitt was in trouble early in that fight, but he managed to weather the early Renfro barrage and catch him with a counter putting him out in this first round. Fuggitt has decent striking ability, highlighted by a powerful left high kick. He’s shown mediocre takedown defense regionally and while he could have a future with the UFC, he’s running into a very tough opponent in the more athletic and dangerous Morales here. Morales is going to have an advantage on the feet here, and an even more dramatic advantage if this fight hits the mat. Simply put, this feels like too much too soon for Fugitt. Morales is the side here, I expect he can get it done inside the distance. Michael Morales by Round Two KO

Preliminary Card- Starts 8:00pm EST

Drakkar Klose -225 vs Rafa Garcia +180

Anthony: This should be a competitive matchup at lightweight between Drakkar Klose and Rafa Garcia. Despite joining the roster in 2021, Garcia has already accrued four UFC fights and nearly an hour of cage time. He is a wrestler with very good top control. His efficient grappling and ability to chain takedowns makes him a serious threat in this division rich with strikers. Klose is good everywhere but certainly best on his feet. His strikes land at a 55 percent clip and Klose also mixes crippling power shots into his combinations. Drawing into Garcia makes sense as Klose looks to get active and back climbing up the lightweight ranks. I was weary of him at -600 against Brandon Jenkins given that long layoff and nagging injuries but I like the opportunity to bet on him here. He looked amazing returning to action. This is a price I feel more comfortable backing him in a matchup I expect him to win. Klose can defend some takedowns here and scramble with Garcia as needed. He should find a finish or win this fight convincingly with his offense on the feet. Drakkar Klose by Decision
Nick: Klose has a solid wrestling base, but he is known as a powerful and athletic striker that pushes a serious pace. He’s found success against a quality level of competition, with notable Wins over Bobby Green, Lando Vannata, and Mark Diakiese. Klose is well rounded with decent defensive grappling ability in scrambles. He’s shown quality technique no matter where his fights go, but he is overaggressive at times which can make him vulnerable against less-skilled opponents. Klose has an excellent calf kick and he does a good job grinding his opponents up against the cage. His boxing continues to show considerable improvements, and his power and durability have both shown to be strengths in his overall game. Rafa Garcia has decent offensive grappling ability, but like Klose he prefers to stand and trade. He usually comes out aggressive and he’s very dangerous early in fights, but he tends to fade in the later rounds. I expect his cardio to continue to improve as he recently shifted camps to Elevation Fight Team. Elevation is known for their excellent cardio as they train in the thin Colorado air, and I’m very impressed by Garcia’s decision to correct such a glaring hole in his game. This is a closer matchup than the line suggests, but I’m comfortable backing Klose here. He should have technical advantages no matter where this fight goes, so I expect he’ll be able to win over the judges. Drakkar Klose by Decision

Don’Tale Mayes -200 vs Hamdy Abdelwahab +160

Anthony: Next is a clash between heavyweights Don’Tale Mayes and Hamdy Abdelwahab. Out of all the freakshow fights on today’s card, this has to be the strangest. Abdelwahab is just 3-0 as a pro martial artist. He is stepping in on short notice here in place of Justin Tafa. I am honestly shocked there is room for a fighter like this on the UFC roster. The former Olympic wrestler really has shown nothing in terms of technical skill. He can hit hard but will not land on higher caliber opponents. I do not think he takes down many UFC heavyweights either. Mayes should have no problem styling on Abdelwahab while this fight is at kickboxing range. He boasts an eight-inch reach advantage and has far more experience inside the cage. Mayes is also winner of two straight fights. I honestly think he should be an even bigger favorite here, given the discrepancy in skill and the recent success he has realized. I think he wins quickly and convincingly. He is my most confident pick on this card. Don’Tale Mayes by Round One KO
Nick: Don’Tale Mayes is a powerful striker, but he’s sometimes slow and plodding and he often seems to wait for the fight to come to him. He can be explosive once he gets going, but he’s the type of fighter that needs to eat a few shots to wake up and get aggressive. He’s continued to show improvements both in his striking and grappling ability, and he’s going to have dramatic experience and athleticism advantage in this matchup. Hamdy Abdelwahab was an Olympic-level wrestler for Egypt, but Egypt is anything but a wrestling powerhouse. He throws powerful hooks, but they are entirely telegraphed. He’s going to be very small for this division, but he’s also going to be at a disadvantage as his skills are far from refined. His cardio is a major question mark and outside of a lucky punch I expect he’s outclassed everywhere in this matchup. Mayes will be the much taller fighter here which will likely make it difficult for Abdelwahab to close distance and score takedowns. Mayes will have a dramatic reach and technical advantage on the feet, and he’s competent enough on the mat that I expect he can keep this fight standing. There is always some volatility in heavyweight MMA, but Mayes certainly feels like the side here. Don’Tale Mayes by Round One KO

Drew Dober -180 vs Rafael Alves +145

Anthony: This is a fight at lightweight with Rafael Alves taking on Drew Dober. I am excited to see these two-clash given their finishing ability and comfort exchanging in close. Dober earned a massive win against Terrance McKinney this March, surviving an early blitz and finding his own finishing sequence shortly after. He is a legit top fifteen lightweight that really only struggles against other top tier competition. Alves is more of an unknown with just one win and one loss in the UFC. His power and quick neck attacks make him a dangerous foe to gameplan for but on the feet Dober should land the better strikes. His boxing is superior to that of Alves and Dober has also shown the ability to really land big. He will be the more crisp in the pocket and I see him finding a shot to put Alves out. The Brazilian really lacks takedown entries or the wrestling to put his jiu jistu to work. Dober is stronger and will have no problem keeping the feet or reversing sloppy entries. At these odds I like him quite a bit compared to other preliminary betting options. Drew Dober by Round Two KO
Nick: This is a Fight of the Night candidate and easily one of the more intriguing fights we have on this card. Drew Dober has improved dramatically over his last few fights. He throws extremely powerful and precise strikes, his timing seems better than ever and the power in his counters make him a threat against almost anyone on the feet. Alves is a former Titan FC Lightweight Champ. He throws extremely powerful strikes, but he tends to telegraph them and he throws mostly singular shots or basic 1-2 type combinations. On the regional scene, Alves has shown an ability to score takedowns off his brute strength from a variety of positions. He has solid BJJ, and there’s a good chance he tries to take this fight to the mat. Dober’s greatest weakness is his defensive grappling ability. He continues to show improvements on the mat, but Alves would be wise to try to ground him in this spot. If he chooses to stand and trade, I expect he’ll be outclassed here. Dober is becoming known for his excellent chin and durability, and I expect that to be the difference in this matchup. Alves is going to be dangerous early, but I don’t see him matching Dober in terms of speed or accuracy on the feet. He could catch Dober with something in a barrage, but it’s very rare we see Dober fail to defend against powerful strikers. This is a close fight to call, but I’m siding with Dober. His takedown defense should be enough to mostly keep this fight on the feet, where I expect his more refined striking to shine through. I am a bit concerned about Alves’ potential to score a submission here, but Dober is the rightful favorite. Drew Dober by Round Two KO

Matthew Semelsberger -165 vs Alex Morono +130

Anthony: The preliminary card ends with this welterweight scrap featuring Alex Morono and Matthew Semelsberger. These are two very well-rounded guys that have been winning more than losing in the UFC. Semelsberger has very crisp boxing paired with offensive wrestling that has been paying dividends. His size and frame allow him to really flatten guys when connecting clean. Morono also has great power for this division while being a bit more diverse on the feet. Surviving the early blitzes from Semelsberger is important but afterwards I expect Morono to have the upper hand striking. He can keep Semelsberger guessing and likely on the back foot depending on what connects. Morono is winner of three in a row and has fought the better overall competition. I think he is fluent enough in jiu jitsu to not only stay out of danger grappling but also threaten his less experienced opponent there. This is a very tough fight to call but as the underdog Morono is the side I will be taking. Alex Morono by Decision
Nick: Morono is a well-rounded fighter, but his greatest strengths are likely his sheer grit and toughness. He always moves forward, even when he’s taking damage. He has solid cardio, underrated power, and he’s well-versed on the mat as a BJJ black belt. Matthew Semelsberger is a powerful puncher who wins most of his fights by early knockout. He’s 4-1 so far in the UFC, with his one loss coming in a hard-fought decision to a highly regarded prospect in Khaos WIlliams. He throws quick and powerful combinations with true flash KO power. He does a good job using an aggressive style to force his opponents to retreat and while there are certainly holes in his game, his impressive power gives him a shot against almost anyone in this division. Semelsberger is the more athletic and potent finisher in this matchup. However, Morono is far more experienced and been tested more extensively against top level competition. I expect Morono to come out strong here, but he’ll need to be careful not to get clipped when engaging with the dangerous Semelsberger. This should be a very fun fight and one I can see going either way, but I find myself siding with Semelsberger. I consider Morono to be one of the more live underdogs on this card, but Semelsberger’s size and athleticism could be a bit too much for him here. Matt Semelsberger by Decision

Main Card- Starts 10:00pm EST

Magomed Ankalaev -575 vs Anthony Smith +400

Anthony: Opening the main card is a light heavyweight bout between Magomed Ankalaev and Anthony Smith. The winner of this fight has a great chance at earning the next title shot in this division. Smith has won three fights in a row by first round stoppage. He seems reinvigorated in his quest for gold and even still improving at this stage of his career. Very rarely will you have a 34-year-old like Smith with so much experience already accrued. He is a monster in terms of offensive jiu jistu and even submissions off his back, something very few occupy at 205 pounds. Lionheart also works behind a very effective jab and throws good strikes in combination. He is live in this spot but Ankalaev has few if any weaknesses. He is a dangerous striker with a great left hand and kick heavy offensive arsenal. He also has the ability to drive for takedowns and hold position on top. The past two wins for Ankalaev have been a bit lackluster but nonetheless he has been victorious in eight straight. I am reluctant to fade him as I truly believe he will one day hold the belt, but Smith is getting disrespected. I have had a great read on Lionheart fights and will trust my gut here expecting him to win this matchup more often than the odds imply. Smith is tough to rely on against elite grapplers but in a three round fight that is less a concern than usual. The crowd will fire him up and I think a dogfight is to be expected here. Anthony Smith by Decision
Nick: Magomed Ankalaev has ridiculously powerful head kicks as an extremely diverse striker with intelligent footwork. He’s well versed in terms of grappling, but his powerful and precise striking is what has many touting him as a future top contender at light heavyweight. He throws meaningful strikes and does a good job staying out of range against a variety of opponents. He’s coming off eight consecutive wins under the UFC banner, and he’ll look to build on that momentum here against a dangerous opponent in Anthony Smith. Smith has shown outstanding cardio, and even in his most recent losses he has shown excellent durability. Even when he’s getting crushed, he is difficult or impossible to put away. He is now coming off three consecutive wins over Devin Clark, Jimmy Crute, and Ryan Spann. Smith has excellent BJJ, technically sound striking ability and he does a good job weaponizing his cardio and taking over fights in the later rounds. He’s been utilizing his jab much more effectively of late. He’s shown improvements in his footwork as well, but more often than not he finds most of his success when he’s able to mix in his grappling. I expect Ankalaev to mostly dominate on the feet, but he should also have a grappling advantage here. Smith has a dangerous BJJ, but he struggles to get back to his feet once he’s grounded. The line has gotten completely out of hand, but I see Ankalaev as the clear favorite. He should land the more damaging shots in exchanges, and his advantages in terms of wrestling should completely neutralize Smith’s BJJ. Magomed Ankalaev by Decision

Alexandre Pantoja -190 vs Alex Perez +155

Anthony: Next is a fun flyweight matchup between Alexandre Pantoja and Alex Perez. Originally, Perez was booked to face Askar Askarov two weeks ago. He took this short notice opponent change to finally get into the ring after a long period of activity. Both of these guys are incredibly fun to watch and I predict we see a bonus awarded to at least one of these two. Pantoja has incredibly fast hands even for a flyweight. I love his boxing and power at distance. Pantoja also has excellent grappling and submission attacks. Perez is a fighter that likes to shoot for takedowns but in a matchup like this he would be playing with fire in doing so. It is hard to identify his clearest path to victory given the skills possessed by The Cannibal. Perez has good boxing but probably falls behind trading blows on the feet. I see him ending up on the wrong end of grappling scrambles as he tries to avoid prolonged striking here. When I think of legitimate contenders for the belt Pantoja is far closer to that title than Perez in my opinion. Alexandre Pantoja by Round Two Submission
Nick: This is an excellent matchup between two of the best flyweights in the world. Pantoja is elite pretty much everywhere. He’s outstanding on the ground and his striking is crisp and explosive. He’s coming off a solid win over Brandon Royval, but we haven’t seen him in action since August of 2021. Perez has excellent footwork, throws a lot of volume and keeps an excellent pace. Additionally, his leg/calf-kicking ability is as impressive as anyone’s in this division. He’s also a competent grappler that isn’t afraid to shoot for takedowns. This should be an even fight when it takes place at striking range, but I see Pantoja getting the better of grappling exchanges. I expect Perez to willingly engage in grappling exchanges here, which will likely backfire as Pantoja’s superior BJJ shines through. Four of Perez’s six professional losses have come via submission. Ten of Pantoja’s twenty-six professional wins have come via submission. Perez is talented enough to potentially pull off an upset here, but I expect Pantoja to capitalize on a very clear path to victory. Alexandre Pantoja by Round Two Submission

Sergei Pavlovich -150 vs Derrick Lewis +120

Anthony: The featured bout has heavyweight Segei Pavlovich taking on The Black Beast Derrick Lewis. This is an intense matchup as both men are knockout artists eager to stand and trade. It is a massive step up in competition for Pavlovich who has just broken into the rankings with a win over Shamil Abdurakhimov in March. Lewis is a much tougher test given his chin, style and thunderous power. He lost his last bout in Texas as he brawled Tai Tuivasa, but a prospect like Pavlovich seems less likely to get one by the veteran contender. He offers very little aside from the explosive forward striking that has gotten him to this point. Against a fighter like Lewis he will likely take a more measured approach than usual to fade that early power. I think he still lacks the entries and timing necessary to stay out of danger while technically striking. Lewis is the all-time knockout leader and I think he adds to that tally here. It is a close fight and perhaps Lewis gets shocked once again, but at plus money this is a very easy pick for me. It is not uncommon for bettors to fade Lewis and he has won as underdog plenty of times before. Derrick Lewis by Round One KO
Nick: We have a fun heavyweight match up here that is very likely to end inside the distance. Sergei Pavlovich is a highly regarded heavyweight prospect, but we have only seen him in competition once since 2019. That appearance came in his recent win over Shamil Abdurakhimov, an impressive KO victory which came late in the first round. Pavlovich has an extremely powerful left hand. He does a good job setting it up behind his jab and while he isn’t very fast he is deceptively explosive for a heavyweight. Lewis doesn’t throw much volume, but he is an extremely skilled counter-striker who has shown, on several occasions, that he has enough power to end any fight with a single punch. He’s a true knockout artist with twenty-one of his twenty-six professional wins coming by knockout. Pavlovich is likely to throw more volume here and I also expect he has a slight advantage in terms of his durability. That all being said, Lewis is the more potent finisher and he’s found success against a much higher level of competition. His power is truly ridiculous, and he’s shown time and time again that he can carry that power into the later rounds if he needs to. A Pavlovich win here certainly wouldn’t surprise me, but I’m loving the value on Lewis given he has much more experience and the far better resume in this matchup. Pavlovich will have youth on his side here, but he really isn’t known for his speed or athleticism. This is a volatile fight in nature, but I’ll back Lewis adding to his KO total. Derrick Lewis by Round One KO

Brandon Moreno -220 vs Kai Kara-France +175

Anthony: In the co-main event, Brandon Moreno and Kai Kara-France will fight for the Interim Flyweight belt. This is a rematch of a fight from 2019. You know every Kara-France fight is going to be fun and I am happy to see him finally awarded a title shot. The City Kickboxing fighter has elite striking and power unlike many others in this division. I think he does hold the advantage over Moreno in terms of firepower, but the technical striking chess match could go either way. Moreno lost his trilogy fight against Deiveson Figueiredo but looked great in all three of those bouts. He draws a very different test today, but Kara-France is honestly a bit more one dimensional. Moreno took over in rounds two and three of their first meeting and won by decision. In a five round fight I again imagine Moreno will be the fresher fighter late but I do not think that is the end all be all. Kai Kara-France can win the early rounds here and even has the potential to finish The Assassin Baby. I think he comes out aggressive and wins more minutes and exchanges on the feet. Kara-France’s 86 percent takedown defense makes me confident that Moreno will not be blanketing him for much time at all here. It is a very close matchup but with a big plus money number once again next to his name, my pick will be KKF. Moreno is a much better draw for the Kiwi compared to the current champion. Kai Kara-France by Decision
Nick: With Figueredo currently sidelined, Brandon Moreno and Kai Kara-France will be fighting for the Interim Flyweight title in this matchup. This is a rematch of a fight Moreno won by decision back in 2019. Moreno is one of the better wrestlers at flyweight and he has an excellent gas tank to support his style. He’s somewhat awkward on the feet, but he is technically sound, striking both offensively and defensively. He lands meaningful shots and does a great job stringing together lengthy combinations. Kai Kara-France, out of City Kickboxing, is a talented and dangerous striker. He has a powerful overhand right and does a good job making sure that the strikes he throws are meaningful. The one real knock on him is that he tends to find himself in tough positions as he takes his foot off the gas at inopportune times. He seemingly corrected these errors in his recent wins over Cody Garbrandt and Askar Askarov, but it’ll be interesting to see if they re-emerge as he continues to face top level competition. Kara-France is extremely dangerous offensively, but he seems to have trouble fighting off his back foot. Moreno does an excellent job pushing forward so this feels like it could be an exceptionally tough matchup for Kara-France stylistically. Another major advantage for Moreno here is that this is a five-round fight. Two of Moreno’s last three fights went five rounds and we’ve never seen Kara-France in a five rounder. I also like that Moreno recently changed camps to Fight Ready, under the tutelage of an excellent coach in James Krause. Krause is known to implement extremely intelligent game plans, so I fully expect he’ll have Moreno in a position to succeed here. Kara-France will be live for a KO upset here, but I see Moreno as having the clearer paths to victory. After a dog fight early, I see him implementing his grappling as this fight wears on and ultimately finding a finish. Brandon Moreno by Round Four Submission

Amanda Nunes -275 vs Julianna Pena +215

Anthony: The night closes with a rematch for the women’s bantamweight strap as Julianna Pena fights Amanda Nunes. It was a historic night at UFC 269 in December when Pena pulled of the upset of the double champion. Her willingness to absorb damage and fight through positions of adversity proved to be the deciding factor in that bout. Nunes found success early on but was completely thrown off her game after getting caught by Pena in the second round. The jab became enough thereafter to get Nunes retreating and looking for a way out. I think things are very different this time. Nunes seems reinvigorated and ready to reclaim what is hers. She still has the advantage over Pena in terms of power, striking awareness and overall volume. In the first fight her strength allowed her to also win grappling positions throughout all of round one. Nunes seems like the value side at these odds despite the fact Pena holds the belt. After winning thirteen fights in a row I doubt we see her drop two consecutively. Pena may look like an attractive dog but I am not ready to fade the greatest female fighter of all time. Neither woman will want to grapple early and I see Nunes hurting Pena the longer they stand on the feet. And New. Amanda Nunes by Round One KO
Nick: This main event is a rematch of a fight that took place back in December of 2021. Nunes was upset by Pena in that spot as a -1100 favorite. Nunes looked good early, but her cardio completely faded and Pena was able to work behind her jab to frustrate Pena and ultimately ground her for a submission in round two. Nunes is extremely well rounded. She has a powerful wrestling base, advanced BJJ, and her power on the feet can’t be matched by anyone in this division. Pena isn’t as technically advanced as Nunes, but she seems to have the better overall cardio and durability. In their first matchup she did an excellent job pushing forward and consistently tagging Nunes with her jab. She’s content to eat shots to throw them. She has excellent BJJ and there is no denying that her will and determination can be weaponized in certain matchups. Past results aside, I’m confident Nunes is going to be the more dangerous fighter early here. She has technical advantages everywhere and there is no denying she is the more potent finisher. That being said, she’s going to need to manage her gas tank this time around. I fully expect she’ll do a better job conserving energy this time around, so I completely support her being the favorite here. The first time these two fought, Nunes was recovering from a knee injury as well as Covid. It seemed she overlooked Pena, so given her lengthy track record of title defenses I’m comfortable giving her the benefit of the doubt the second time around. Nunes should pick Pena apart on the feet here, and I expect she’ll do a much better job defending against Pena’s jab. She’s going to be the stronger grappler and given how blatant it was that her gas tank failed her last time out, I expect dramatic improvements in her pacing and cardio this time around. If Pena can drag this out, she’ll be live for another upset. However, it feels far more likely that Nunes can overwhelm her early here. And New. Amanda Nunes by Round Two KO

-Nick Marro

Twitter: @NickMarroDFS

-Anthony Marro

Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_