UFC 318: Holloway vs Poirier III Full Card Analysis

UFC 318: Holloway vs Poirier III – 7.19.2025 – Fight Predictions and Analysis

Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC 318: Holloway vs Poirier III. This card in New Orleans, Louisiana is treated to a great trilogy in Dustin Poirier’s final fight. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick as our records will not reflect confidence in each selection. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few.

Current Record

• Anthony: 173-101-1 (Last Year 321-191-0, 63%)
• Nick: 177- 97-1 (Last Year 316-196-0, 62%)

*Fight odds were last updated from Bet99 on 7-18-2025 at 6pm EST

Early Prelims- Start 6:00pm EST

Carli Judice -400 vs Nicolle Caliari +300

• Anthony: The card begins at women’s flyweight with Nicolle Caliari versus Carli Judice. For Judice, this is a favorable matchup here fighting in Louisiana. Her high output and ability to mix up her attacks give her a distinct advantage on the feet. She’ll be looking to keep this fight standing, controlling the distance and unleashing potent striking combinations. The added motivation of fighting in front of her home-state crowd in New Orleans could also further elevate her performance. At 26 years old, Judice still has significant potential for growth and improvement in the future. Caliari is more well-rounded at this juncture but I do not think her advantage is too clear. While Caliari can certainly attempt to grapple against Judice, I am not sure takedowns will come very easily against the skilled boxer opposite her today. Caliari really struggled in her last fight attempting to takedown Ernesta Kareckaite, converting only three of fourteen attempts. Judice will use her footwork to stay at distance and out of Caliari’s grasp. The odds are too inflated for this matchup, as many fights ahead of this pay-per-view card have moneylines that have been steamed very wide. Carli Judice by Decision
• Nick: Carli Judice is 4-2 professionally and 26 years-old. She is 1-2 in the UFC, coming off a head kick KO win over Yuneisy Duben back in March. Judice is primarily a striker, and she’s surprisingly sound technically with someone with her limited level of experience. She has a good understanding of footwork and she throws out a lot of volume in exchanges. Her defensive grappling ability is mediocre at best, and it is likely going to be tested here against Caliari.  Nicolle Caliari is well-rounded with an 8-3 professional record. Five of those wins have come via KO and four via submission. Caliari has faced a solid level of regional competition; having fought in LFA, Invicta, and Pancrase. She’s coming off a hard fought loss in her UFC debut in which she fell to Ernesta Kareckaite. Judice is the better striker here by a wide margin. Caliari can be dangerous if this fight hits the mat, but her wrestling ability isn’t likely to be advanced enough to take it there. I expect Judice can mostly keep this fight standing as she builds momentum with each passing round. Carli Judice by Round Three KO

Brunno Ferreira -600 vs Jackson McVey +450

• Anthony: Next is a matchup at middleweight between Brunno Ferreira and Jackson McVey. This is a short notice appearance for McVey after Ikram Aliskerov pulled out of his matchup with Ferreira. The Hulk is a massive betting favorite here facing a man making his promotional debut. McVey is still undefeated but this is a massive step up in competition for him. He was scheduled for a debut fight last month against Christopher Ewert. McVey is much taller than Ferreira with the longer reach, but he lacks the striking skills and pure boxing power that Ferreira possesses. The Brazilian also proved in his last bout that he is a capable wrestler and threat with his offensive jiu jitsu. He is going to be a lot to handle early and I expect McVey to be overwhelmed. While McVey has previously been known for his great jiu jitsu, I do not expect him to have any success grappling in this matchup. Ferreira is too strong to compete with on such short notice. He is likely going to finish McVey rather easily in round one. Bruno Ferreira by Round One KO
• Nick: Brunno Ferreira is a powerful and aggressive striker and explosive in terms of his overall athletic ability. He is 4-2 in the UFC, coming off a submission win over Armen Petrosyan.  While he does have decent grappling ability, there is certainly no denying the fact that Ferreira prefers to stand and trade on the feet. He doesn’t throw much volume, but he does a good job countering and finding openings to land his bigger shots. He’s somewhat short in stature compared to the rest of the division, but he more than makes up for it with strength and advanced athleticism. Jackson McVey is 6-0 professionally and 26 years old. He’s going to be making his UFC debut here, coming off a KO win over Mataeo Gamer at LFA 210 back in June. All six of his wins have come via first round finish, but he’s tough to gauge in terms of ability as he’s been taking on a questionable level of opponent. He’s an opportunistic finisher on the mat, but it is notable he’s taking this fight on short notice after he made weight for a fight that was cancelled back at UFC 317. McVey is an interesting prospect and he could be live for an early submission here. That being said, this match-up feels like a bit too much too soon. Bruno Ferreira by Round One KO

Ryan Spann -250 vs Lukasz Brzeski +200

• Anthony: This is a fight at heavyweight between Ryan Spann and Lukasz Brzeski. It is a very low-level matchup and a volatile fight to predict. Spann is a measly 8-6 in the UFC but Brzeski is worse with a 1-5 record. Brzeski has now lost by KO in back to back fights and three of his previous four appearances. He is not a fundamentally sound striker, often putting himself in position to be countered and badly hurt. His footwork is awful and Brzeski will not be able to engage his grappling here against Spann. Normally Spann is very quick to clinch with his opponents and on occasion he is successful bringing fights to the mat. He is most dangerous in round number one when chucking big overhands and exploding into attacks on the neck. Spann has a nasty guillotine choke and I expect him to wrap up Brzeski’s neck here at some point. Brzeski does not respond well when eating damage and Spann should be able to get him to shell up. I am expecting an early finish to materialize here with Spann getting the better of Brzeski. This will be a slow paced and much tighter matchup if Brzeski can survive to the end of round number one. I will be betting on under props here instead of trusting Spann with my money as a favorite. Ryan Spann by Round One Submission
• Nick: Ryan Spann carries a lot of power and sneaky submission ability, but he’s been extremely inconsistent since he debuted with the UFC. His cardio has proven to be an issue in many of his recent fights, and his Fight IQ is questionable at best. His kill-or-be-killed style makes him dangerous against anyone, but it also means he’s a risky fighter to back as a favorite. Brzeski is 9-5-1 professionally, and just 1-5 in the UFC. He’s surprisingly athletic for his frame, but his technical ability in both his striking and grappling are far from refined. He has decent power on the feet, but he telegraphs most of his strikes. This creates openings for his opponents to either take him down or counter him. This is a low level match-up and thus a low confidence play. Still, Spann has to be the favorite as he’s been more proven against a higher level of opponent..I expect his speed and aggression early here will be enough for him to get back in the win column. Ryan Spann by Round One Submission

Jimmy Crute -340 vs Marcin Prachnio +270

• Anthony: Next is a fight at light heavyweight between Jimmy Crute and Marcin Prachnio. Crute enters this matchup as a large betting favorite despite having not won a fight since 2020. He is on a 0-3-2 skid with another draw in his most recent fight versus Rodolfo Bellato. Crute often will dominate with his grappling in round one before hitting a wall and slowing down his offensive approach. He manages his cardio poorly and certainly could get hurt facing an elite striker like Prachnio. It will be crucial for Prachnio to keep distance here and prevent Crute from securing top position. He is an elusive striker that does well keeping space and landing at a higher rate than what he absorbs. I’d gamble with Prachnio here if this were to be a pure striking match but very early we will see Crute secure one takedown. Prachnio had just 53 percent takedown defense. He was outgrappled and submitted in his most recent performance fighting Modestas Bukauskas last July. The betting favorite should hold in this matchup and likely find an early win via stoppage. Prachnio is an intriguing live bet if this fight does go over the 1.5 round total. He can land better offense than Crute, connecting early with his jabs and low kicks. Jimmy Crute by Round One Submission
• Nick: Jimmy Crute was once an exciting prospect at Light Heavyweight. He’s a powerful striker, but many of his wins have come via his outstanding submission ability. Crute is dangerous everywhere, but he is often so aggressive that he sometimes gasses out if he can’t put his opponents away early. Additionally, his durability has been on the decline. Notably, he has been finished in all four of his professional losses and he hasn’t won a fight since October of 2020. Marcin Prachnio is a decent striker at range, but he leaves himself open to counter shots. He is often there to be hit in lengthy exchanges, but at his best he does a good job fighting on the outside of the cage while circling away from the power of his opponents. Crute is inconsistent, but he’s the much better grappler in this match-up and I also expect that he’ll set the pace. Prachnio’s tentative style should play right into the younger fighter’s strengths. Jimmy Crute by Round One Submission

Islam Dulatov -600 vs Adam Fugitt +450

• Anthony: This is a fight at welterweight between Adam Fugitt and Islam Dulatov. It is the UFC debut for Dulatov who enters the promotion as a 11-1 professional. The Ripper is an interesting German prospect, blending strong striking attacks with good grappling fundamentals. He has shown good defensive grappling skills, making him difficult to take down. When in a dominant position Dulatov also has a great series of chokes attacking the neck. He will likely engage early here with Fugitt and look to finish the fight early with his strikes. Dulatov does have the advantage of power here but Fugitt has proven tough and durable. Dulatov’s pure kickboxing should overwhelm Fugitt here early but I’m not sure how this fight looks if we do get more than one round of action. Dulatov appears to be in good physical shape but he has not yet been tested against a gritty opponent like this. He is comfortable with his boxing, while Fugitt prefers to make things ugly and fight into the clinch. This is a tough pressure opponent for Dulatov to face in his promotional debut. I expect him to hold serve as the betting favorite but I do not plan on trusting him with my money here today. Islam Dulatov by Round Two KO
• Nick: Islam Dulatov will be making his UFC debut here, entering this fight with an 11-1 professional record at 26 years old. He’s coming off an impressive win via elbow KO on Contender Series over Vanilto Antunes back in October of 2024. Dulatov is fairly well-rounded, entering this match-up with six wins via KO and five via submission. While he’s dangerous offensively everywhere, his power on the feet is what has lead him to the majority of his success to this point in his career. Adam Fuggitt has decent striking ability, highlighted by a powerful left high kick. He’s shown solid wrestling ability as well, but most of his success has come against a questionable level of opponent. He is 10-4 professionally and 2-2 in the UFC, but at 36 years old he’s already well past his athletic prime. He can be dangerous offensively against almost anyone, but he’s hittable in exchanges and it seems he struggles against grapplers with any sort of quality credentials. Fuggitt has an experience advantage here, but Dulatov’s speed and athleticism present a difficult puzzle for him to solve stylistically. Simply, it seems these are two fighters whose careers are headed in opposite directions. Islam Dulatov by Round Two KO

Preliminary Card- Starts 8:00pm EST

Ateba Gautier -500 vs Robert Valentin +380

• Anthony: This is a fight at middleweight between Robert Valentin and Ateba Gautier. It seems this booking serves to further propel the young prospect Gautier. The 23-year-old is still a bit green but he appears to have an incredibly high ceiling moving forward. Gautier is 6’4 with a massive 81 inch reach. He is a thunderous power puncher with incredible athleticism and speed. Those longer arms allow Gautier to connect with his power shots from both stances effectively. Valentin will be desperate to clinch Gautier early and survive into this bout’s latter half. I really think he is a mediocre fighter and not someone that belongs on the UFC roster. He has lost both of his prior appearances in the promotion. Gautier is a physical specimen but he can definitely fade if this fight does see the start of round number two. I think his aggressive nature will ultimately lead to an early finish here against Valentin. He should connect early with big overhands and powerful strikes in the clinch. Rather than betting Gautier on this pricey moneyline, I will instead have my action on his knockout prop. Ateba Gautier by Round One KO
• Nick: Ateba Gautier is just 23 years old, and 7-1 professionally. Primarily a striker, all but one of his professional wins has come by KO. He’s coming off an impressive win over Jose Medina via KO in his UFC debut back in March, but he’s still far from developed in terms of his overall technical ability. He’s an explosive athlete and he’s dangerous no matter where his fights go, but he can be hittable in exchanges and he can be tentative at times as he waits for fights to come to him. Additionally, there is a chance his hyper-aggressive style could cost him if his fights are extended. Robert Valentin was the runner up in The Ultimate Fighter Season 32 tournament at middleweight. He is relatively well-rounded, but most of his success comes on the feet. He’s a cerebral muay thai striker, who does a good job landing damaging shots both at range and in the clinch. He’s aggressive in his approach, throwing jumping and spinning attacks both frequently and aggressively. He carries power in all of his limbs, but his hyper aggressive style often sacrifices defense for offense. He takes a lot of damage in exchanges, but he’s generally durable. His takedown defense is somewhat questionable, but he has excellent Judo and dangerous offensive BJJ. Valentin is getting disrespected on the money line here, but Gautier’s explosive athleticism and superior durability should allow him to win out in what is expected to be a fire fight. Valentin is live for the upset if this fight is extended, but that seems increasingly unlikely. Ateba Gautier by Round One KO

Francisco Prado -150 vs Nikolay Veretennikov +125

• Anthony: This should be a fun bout at welterweight between Francsicso Prado and Nikolay Veretennikov. I do not consider Veretennikov to be very good and Prado should clear him easily if he does belong here fighting at this level. The 23 year old has already done a lot in the promotion, fighting some tough competition but going 1-3 overall. He should continue to develop his skills further training at American Top Team, sharing rounds this camp with Poirier the card headliner. He should be on point boxing both offensively and defensively. Prado packs a serious punch and wants to engage Veretennikov here in the octagon center. He does cede a five-inch reach advantage, making it tough for Prado to land as often as Veretennikov does. It may be a difficult fight for these judges to score but I expect Prado to do the better work over fifteen minutes. He can step in and land harder shots against an opponent like Veretennikov fighting from a wushu base. Prado will land hard and accurately here with his 1-2 combination. If he does not take this fight by decision he is also a serious threat to win via knockout. Francisco Prado by Decision
• Nick: Francisco Prado fights aggressively, especially early in fights. He’s more than content to exchange in a fire fight, but his defense can be compromised as a result. He has decent BJJ offensively, but his takedown entries are fairly predictable and it’s become increasingly rare we see him lean on his grappling. All of Prado’s wins have come via finish. He is 12-2 professionally, coming off of back-to-back losses for the first time in his career. Nikolay Veretennikov is coming off of back-to-back losses under the UFC banner, but prior to that he strung together three straight wins via finish for United Fight League. Veretennikov is primarily a striker, but he’s capable of finishing a fight from anywhere. He was outgrappled by a wide margin his last time out against Austin Vanderford, but he is in a much more favorable match-up this time around against another striker in Francisco Prado. At his best, Veretennikov does a good job fighting at range and he carries surprising power even when he’s backing away from his opponents. These are two similar fighters, but I see Prado forcing the pace and putting out more volume over the course of three rounds. Francisco Prado by Decision

Brendan Allen -190 vs Marvin Vettori +155

• Anthony: Next is a matchup between ranked middleweights Brendan Allen and Marvin Vettori. This is a big tilt for both men jockeying to stay relevant inside of the division top ten. Vettori is quickly back in the octagon after suffering a loss to Roman Dolidze in March. He also lost his late brother Patrick in a tragic house fire just months ago. He is going to be more motivated than ever to win in this performance, perhaps more aggressively pursuing a finish. Vettori should have the edge in terms of his striking volume in this matchup but otherwise I fear he is going to be up against it. Allen is the better technical striker and he can rely on his power to stand and win minutes against an opponent like Vettori on the feet. Allen is an excellent offensive grappler, but he will probably not elect to exert energy wrestling Vettori who has a strong base and great takedown defense. Allen is taller and a bit stronger physically, but this is going to be a very competitive matchup between two athletes at the same stage of their careers. Allen has better Fight IQ than Vettori and I think he will control him in most positions here. He represents Covington, Louisiana and I expect him to perform well here with the home crowd in support. Brendan Allen by Decision
• Nick: Fourteen of Brendan Allen’s twenty-four professional wins have come via submission. He has excellent BJJ, with a solid wrestling base, but he makes questionable decisions in many of his fights. He often plays into the strengths of his opponents and he seems overly emotional at times as he engages in brawls. His striking continues to show improvements, which isn’t surprising as he has made major strides in that area ever since he shifted to an excellent camp in Kill Cliff FC and more recently Valley Flow Striking. Marvin Vettori is a southpaw who throws a strong knee and kicks behind his punches from the left side. He has yet to really show knockout power, but he does throw a high-volume of damaging strikes. While he is decent on the feet, he is also a talented grappler with a strong wrestling base and effective ground and pound ability. He’s been inconsistent and inactive of late, but at his best he can be a tough out for anyone outside of the top-10 in the division. The price feels wide here as Allen is generally inconsistent. Still, he’s been the more active fighter of the two in this match-up and he’s been making more noticeable improvements from fight to fight. Brendan Allen by Decision

Vinicius Oliveira -150 vs Kyler Phillips +125

• Anthony: The featured bout is a fight at bantamweight between Kyler Phillips and Vinicius Oliveira. This is a pivotal fight in the division with both athletes currently ranked inside the top fifteen. The Brazilian is a moderate betting favorite as he enters on a tidy winning streak. Oliveira has demonstrated great poise through his past several cage appearances. He is a crafty striker who fights patiently and manages distance well. This style allows Oliveira to react and counter his opponents. He is the quicker and more dangerous striker but I expect this to be a competitive fight on the feet. The path of least resistance for Phillips will come by the takedown here. Oliveira is a mediocre grappler who has been grounded in each UFC fight so far. Phillips has strong offensive jiu jitsu but if he fails to submit Oliveira early, I do not think he has the cardio to win this fight late. Oliveira does very well maintaining strong posture and keeping his distance to land countershots. While Phillips can exceed expectations as the underdog, I do expect him to walk into some big shots in this matchup. He seems likely to extend this winning streak to six in a row. Vinicius Oliveira by Round Two KO
• Nick: Vinicius Oliveira is 29 years-old, 22-3 professionally, with sixteen of those wins coming via KO. Oliveira is an extremely powerful striker who seems to do his best work in the pocket. He’s a physical specimen for a bantamweight. His kill-or-be-killed style makes him dangerous against anyone, but it also means he can be open to be countered in exchanges. He is 3-0 in the UFC, and he carries a lot of momentum into this match-up. Kyler Phillips throws diverse strikes and does a good job using feints to bait his opponents into powerful shots. Additionally, he is very athletic with solid footwork and scrambling ability. He throws exciting and versatile spinning attacks, but he is also dangerous on the mat as a Carlson Gracie BJJ Brown belt . No matter where his fights go, he seems talented enough to find success against a wide range of opponents. That being said, he does his best work in the first round and he often seems to fade as his fights wear on. Phillips has the skill to bounce back in a big way here, but Oliveira should be a step ahead of him no matter where this one goes. I expect he’ll look like the rightful favorite in this matchup, especially if Phillips once again starts to fade as this fight wears on. Vinicius Oliveira by Round Three KO

Main Card- Starts 10:00pm EST

Daniel Zellhuber -600 vs Michael Johnson +450

• Anthony: This is a fight at lightweight between Michael Johnson and Daniel Zellhuber. We should see a very exciting battle here on the feet as these two strikers go head to head. Zellhuber is looking to bounce back from a loss in his last appearance, losing a split decision to Esteban Ribovics. The ceiling for Zellhuber is undoubtedly still high and at this stage Johnson is an opponent he should be beating. Johnson is a serious power threat but he will likely struggle to best Zellhuber in a kickboxing match. I expect Zellhuber to slow the pace here and pick apart Johnson from distance. He benefits from a four-inch reach advantage in this fight. It should not be hard finding a home for his jab and straight shots against Johnson. Zellhuber does not often chase the finish but I could see one materializing for him late. Zellhuber is the much more technically skilled striker and I feel confident predicting that he wins this matchup. Johnson will start to feel outclassed if this bout gets into round two. It is very hard to match up against an opponent that is thirteen years younger and now entering their prime. Daniel Zellhuber by Round Three KO
• Nick: At his best, Daniel Zellhuber is a creative striker that uses his range well. He fights well behind his jab, he’s extremely quick getting in and out of exchanges, and his overall grappling ability seems to be quite advanced for a new-comer. He’s a highly regarded prospect, but he’s coming off a loss to Esteban Ribovics and he’s been out of action since that fight took place back in September of 2024. Michael Johnson was once considered a future title contender at 155. He has notable wins over Tony Ferguson, Dustin Poirier, and Edson Barboza. That being said, there’s really no denying he’s a shell of the fighter he was in his prime. Johnson is a highly technical southpaw striker but his fight IQ and durability have deteriorated over the years. That being said, he does still occasionally show flashes of brilliance on the feet. The age gap is dramatic here, with Zellhuber nearly 13 years younger than Johnson. I expect the speed and the athleticism of Zellhuber to prove too much for this version of Johnson. Daniel Zellhuber by Round Two KO

Dan Ige -220 vs Patricio Pitbull +180

• Anthony: Next is a fight at featherweight between Dan Ige and Patricio Pitbull. This will be a bit of a mirror matchup with both men fighting in similar orthodox stances. They both last competed at UFC 314 this past April with Ige winning his fight while Pitbull lost his. The UFC debut for Pitbull was underwhelming, dropping every round to Yair Rodriguez and getting outstruck by a margin of 53 significant strikes. Pitbull is going to need a much more aggressive approach in this matchup facing an opponent like Ige. While Ige is not known for throwing with high volume, he is likely going to be the busier fighter in this matchup. Ige has great boxing skills at close range and more power than Pitbull in his hands. I do not think it is likely we see a knockout from either side in this one but instead a fun fifteen minutes of back and forth action. Ige is the rightful favorite here with better offensive striking and a proven iron chin. He should be able to fight through tough positions against Pitbull, landing more strikes with impact in comparison. He should keep this fight standing against Pitbull, defending any attempted takedowns that we may see. Dan Ige by Decision
• Nick: A former Bellator Champion at both featherweight and lightweight, Pitbull already has notable wins over Michael Chandler and AJ McKee Jr. He’s a well-rounded fighter, and he generally does an excellent job exploiting the flaws of his opponents. He’s coming off an ugly decision loss in his UFC debut to Yair Rodriguez, and there’s no denying his career is on a bit of a downturn at 38 years old. While I do see Pitbull as the more skilled fighter in this match-up, he is past his prime and his durability does seem to be on a bit of a decline. Dan Ige has an extremely high FIght IQ. He works well behind his jab on the feet, but he’s also comfortable grappling and wrestling as he has a very powerful base and excellent control of his weight/hips. He has surprising KO power for his frame, and it seems he only loses fights to the absolute best featherweights in the world. The best version of Pitbull would have no issues with Ige. That being said, he is far past his prime. I expect this fight to play out closely, but Ige to set the pace and ultimately win on volume. Dan Ige by Decision

Kevin Holland -600 vs Daniel Rodriguez +450

• Anthony: The featured fight is a matchup at welterweight between Kevin Holland and Daniel Rodriguez. This fight was scheduled to take place at UFC 279 before Khamzat Chimaez missed weight and altered the main card bout order. Since then Holland has fought ten times and gone 5-5. Four of those victories came down here at 170 pounds where Holland has really thrived. He is a strong grappler in this weight class and very dynamic with his offensive striking. Although Holland is aggressive and generally strong when kickboxing, Rodriguez will be the more skilled striker in this matchup. Holland is going to need to connect with D-Rod here in the early firefight. He has a seven-inch striking advantage that Rodriguez will need to overcome. I think his strong jiu jistu skills could shine through in this matchup. As big moments unfold, Holland can always jump onto Rodriguez’ neck and threaten with submissions from there. Rodriguez has just 63 percent takedown defense against opponents. Holland can take advantage of the single leg takedown too here facing a southpaw striker. I think his speed and quality finishing ability make him the rightful betting favorite. Holland is the much younger fighter and is winning more convincingly against strong competition. I am betting him to win via finish in this fight rather than laying heavy odds on his moneyline. Kevin Holland by Round Two Submission
• Nick: Kevin Holland has developed a reputation as one of the more exciting fighters in the UFC. He talks constantly, both insulting and congratulating his opponents for the entire time he’s in the cage. He’s a rangy and creative striker with surprising power for his frame, but he has a clear hole in his game via his takedown defense. While he struggles at times against wrestlers, he has dangerous BJJ as a black belt under Travis Lutter. His grappling has looked a lot better overall since he made the move down to welterweight, but he’s been wildly inconsistent as he fights as often as anyone on the roster. Daniel Rodriguez has very sharp boxing, which isn’t surprising as he is currently coached by Joe Schilling. He hasn’t really used his grappling much at the UFC level, but he holds a Brown Belt in BJJ via 10th Planet. He’s certainly a well-rounded fighter on paper, but he’s just 2-3 in his last five fights. Rodriguez can be competitive on the feet here, but Holland is much quicker than any of his other recent opponents. Additionally, the gap in skill on the mat is significant with Holland once again fighting at 170 pounds. Kevin Holland by Round Two Submission

Roman Kopylov -250 vs Paulo Costa +200

• Anthony: The co-main event is a middleweight matchup between Paulo Costa and Roman Kopylov. This matchup was scheduled to take place in June but Costa withdrew due to injury. Kopylov is coming off a great win in his last fight beating Chris Curtis via headkick. He has realized much more recent success than Costa. The inactivity is a huge issue for Costa who relies too much on landing single shots. He cannot recklessly enter to land hooks when competing against ranked opponents. Facing a skilled kickboxer like Kopylov will likely result in Costa primarily fighting from behind. While both of these men compete with opponents at striking range, Kopylov has a much wider arsenal of weapons and the more sophisticated attacks. His kicks and early pressure will likely cause Costa to move backwards more than he would like to. Costa throws naked kicks to the body that hurt, but Kopylov plans his attacks and chops away at opponents methodically. In the past we have seen Costa come alive as fights start to get late, but Kopylov tends to manage his cardio well. These two can deliver a really fun scrap but if this is going to be more of a chess match, I’ll pick Kopylov to win. He has now won his previous three fights when closing as the betting favorite. Roman Kopylov by Decision
• Nick: Roman Kopylov is a dangerous offensive kickboxer at range. He does a good job mixing heavy kicks into his combinations, but he is somewhat predictable as he seems to telegraph many of his bigger shots. He has won six of his last seven fights, including a KO win over Chris Curtis his last time out which came with just seconds left in Round Three via headkick. Paulo Costa is a volume striker with plenty of power for a middleweight. He’s extremely aggressive and can eat shots to throw them, as we see in most of his wins. He’s coming off a hard fought loss via decision to a tough out in Sean Strickland. He has been out of action since that fight took place back in June of 2024. These are two inconsistent fighters, which makes this a tough match-up to call. Costa would certainly be live for the upset if he chose to lean on his grappling, but I’m not at all confident he will. I expect Kopylov can work at range here on his way to a narrow decision win. Roman Kopylov by Decision

Max Holloway -135 vs Dustin Poirier +115

• Anthony: The card ends with this fight at lightweight between Max Holloway and Dustin Poirier. This is a thrilling trilogy bout between two of the all-time best in the sport. Both men have resumes that command respect given the elite competition that has opposed them. Each is coming off a loss as title challenger in their last appearance. Poirier now has the opportunity to take the B.M.F belt and retire from the sport on his terms. The card here in New Orleans pays tribute to Poirier as he fights one final time. It should be an iconic moment when he arrives at the octagon with Lil Wayne performing. Both of the previous meetings went to Poirier. He won via unanimous decision in 2019 when the two competed for the interim lightweight title. Poirier took most rounds landing the more impactful strikes on Holloway and really flowing with his offensive combinations. Holloway landed more volume than Poirier and I expect a similar outcome here tonight. These two are going to slug it out and give the fans an exciting matchup on the feet. Holloway is a step quicker than Poirier and better at finding his marks. He has the higher defensive striking average but normally Holloway absorbs more strikes per minute. I think Poirier could finish Holloway again but this will very likely be a fight that goes to the scorecards. He is not going to allow Holloway to outstrike him by double-digits in multiple rounds. I do not want to bet on Holloway as I figure his volume will not be enough to win every round here tonight. Poirier will have big moments yet again, and again I think Holloway will still struggle to knock him down. Dustin Poirier by Decision
• Nick: This fight is the third instance of a trilogy between Max Holloway and Dustin Poirier. Poirier won each of the first two meetings, but he’s certainly further past his prime than Holloway seems to be. Poirier will be fighting in front of his home crowd here, but he’s announced this will be his retirement fight and his last in the promotion after a storied and successful career. Dustin Poirier is a crisp boxer with an excellent understanding of angles. He throws fast combinations and he does a good job keeping pressure on his opponents. We have seen Poirier time and time again start to come alive as a fight wears into the middle and later rounds. Max Holloway has outstanding head movement, near flawless footwork, and against inferior strikers he’s known to put on unforgettable performances. He showed a willingness to grapple in his 2021 match-up with Yair Rodriguez, but I fully expect him to mostly stand and trade here as he looks to build on an already outstanding legacy. Holloway lands more than seven significant strikes per minute and he absorbs less than five. He has secured wins in five of his last seven fights. Poirier will have the crowd behind him, but with one foot out the door it’s tough to expect he’ll be at his absolute best. Holloway finally seems to have filled out the frame of a 155 lb’er. He’s going to land more volume than Poirier in this one, and his durability should once again allow him to pull away from his opponent in the later rounds. This fight could certainly go either way, but I’m siding with the favorite. Max Holloway by Decision

-Nick Marro

Twitter: @NickMarroDFS

-Anthony Marro

Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_

Photo: UFC.com