UFC Vegas 107: Blanchfield vs Barber Full Card Analysis

UFC Vegas 107: Blanchfield vs Barber – 5.31.2025 – Fight Predictions and Analysis

Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC Vegas 107: Blanchfield vs Barber. Live fights are back at The Apex in Las Vegas after no action for the UFC last weekend. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick as our records will not reflect confidence in each selection. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few.

Current Record

• Anthony: 131-74-1 (Last Year 321-191-0, 63%)
• Nick: 133-72-1 (Last Year 316-196-0, 62%)

*Fight odds were last updated from Bet99 on 5-30-2025 at 10pm EST

Preliminary Card- Starts 6:00pm EST

Rayanne dos Santos -220 vs Alice Ardelean +180

• Anthony: The card tonight begins at women’s strawweight between Alice Ardelean and Rayanne dos Santos. We have not seen dos Santos win since joining the UFC but she is the moderate betting favorite for her matchup today. Dos Santos should have the advantage here striking against an opponent like Ardelean. She’s a much more fluid athlete, moving into range and landing her shots with more sting. I like the consistent output from dos Santos and I expect to see a solid showing from her here on the feet. Ardelean offers little power coming the other way, often relying on her offensive grappling to get the job done. She is also on an 0-2 skid since signing with the promotion. Ardelean’s resume is littered with wins against women who are just 2-0 or 0-3. All of the upper-level opponents she has faced handled her rather easily. I do not think she is skilled enough to be fighting at this level while dos Santos at least shows some signs of having a bright future ahead of her. This is not a fight that I am confident betting on. Rayanne dos Santos by Decision
• Nick: Rayanne dos Santos is a Former Invicta FC Atomweight Champion. She is 14-8 professionally, and relatively well-rounded as a 29-year old up-and-comer. She’s 0-2 in the UFC, but each of those losses came in competitive split decisions. She has excellent cardio and fights at a consistent pace, generally keeping pressure on her opponents. Her striking is solid, but as a former atomweight she doesn’t always cause much damage when she lands. She’s a competent grappler with decent BJJ offensively, but lately it seems she prefers to fight at striking range. Alice Ardelean is 9-7 professionally, and 0-2 under the UFC banner. She’s coming off back-to-back decision losses, and there’s a good chance she’ll be cut from the promotion if she can’t secure a win in this spot. Ardelean has faced a mostly mediocre level of regional competition before she made it to the UFC, with the one exception being a loss to Weili Zhang in which she was submitted with relative ease. Ardelean is relatively well-rounded, but she’s somewhat unathletic for a strawweight. She has decent fundamentals, but she’s slow and predictable in her movements. This is a low level match-up, but I find myself siding with the favorite. Rayanne dos Santos should have a considerable grappling advantage here, and unlike Ardelean, it seems she’s still making considerable improvements from fight to fight. Rayanne dos Santos by Decision

Bolaji Oki -375 vs Michael Aswell +285

• Anthony: Next is a fight at lightweight between Michael Aswell and Bolaji Oki. This is a short notice booking with Aswell stepping in here for MarQuel Mederos. Oki is a big and explosive athlete. He took a loss in his most recent matchup falling into a submission from Chris Duncan, but while fights are standing Oki is tough to oppose. Aswell has his hands full with just a few days to prepare for this one. Formerly competing on Dana White’s Contender Series, Aswell is still a young boxer with more skills starting to come along. He trains with the team at 4oz Fight Club in Houston, Texas. I think he lacks the size and strength to really challenge Oki in many positions. At distance, Oki will be landing more often with his jab and powerful kicks. He has a four-inch reach advantage over Aswell and a slightly higher rate of attack. Aswell will feel his size here, eating big kicks at distance and powerful knees while these two are in the clinch. I expect Oki to thoroughly control this fight and win rather convincingly. Bolaji Oki by Decision
• Nick: Bolaji Oki is 9-2 professionally with five of those wins coming via KO. He’s coming off a decision loss to Chris Duncan, his first loss since his professional debut back in 2018. He’s extremely athletic, with explosive power and strength. He prefers to stand and strike and he’s shown a high-level understanding of mixing body shots into his combinations. His cardio and durability seemed to have improved considerably since he made his professional debut, but he’s still very raw in his abilities. Michael Aswell will be making his UFC debut here, taking this fight as a short notice replacement for an injured MarQuel Mederos. Aswell is 10-2 professionally and just 24 years old. He is primarily a striker, with five of his ten professional wins coming via KO. He has primarily fought for a quality regional promotion in Fury FC, and his losses have come to a relatively high level of competition. The line feels too wide here, but with Aswell taking this fight on short notice I have trouble seeing a clear path to him to win. Oki is raw in his abilities, but he’s going to be the much bigger and more athletic fighter in this matchup. The price is wildly inflated, but I still see Oki as the rightful favorite. Bolaji Oki by Decision

Jordan Leavitt -240 vs Kurt Holobaugh +190

• Anthony: This is another fight at lightweight next between Kurt Holobaugh and Jordan Leavitt. Some of the fights on today’s card don’t warrant much excitement and this bout would certainly be one of them. I like the style that Holobaugh tends to fight but he is starting to really slow down now at age 38. He has fought to tough decisions in each of his last three bouts while enduring quite a lot of grappling pressure. Leavitt will certainly elect to utilize his offensive grappling here to control Holobaugh. Leavitt is confident that his wrestling will be enough to get by Kurt but I am expecting a more grueling fight overall. Holobaugh has exceptional jiu jitsu and from the bottom position he is very dangerous. Sometimes I believe that Holobaugh commits too much to attempting submissions from the bottom. Holobaugh also has the advantage striking in this fight. Leavitt throws a good 1-2 and solid kicks, but none of his strikes really come with much power. Holobaugh has more finishing equity and I do not think he will get controlled for a full three rounds. I will take one more shot betting him as the underdog here today. Leavitt has been the much less active fighter, having not competed since 2023. This is already Holobaugh’s fourth fight since winning The Ultimate Fighter. Kurt Holobaugh by Round Two Submission
• Nick: Jordan Leavitt is primarily a grappler. He has a strong wrestling base and does an excellent job keeping pressure on his opponents. He has excellent cardio, and while his strikes don’t do much damage his unorthodox style does seem to be enough to keep him out of serious trouble. He’s been out of action since November of 2023 after he was dominated on the mat by Chase Hooper. He’ll be looking to bounce back here in a more favorable stylistic match-up against a dangerous but inconsistent opponent in Holobaugh. Kurt Holobaugh is primarily a striker. He has a solid chin and moves well at range, but he is most comfortable fighting in the pocket. He strings together effective combinations, he uses all of his limbs well, and seven of his twenty-one professional wins have come via KO. He’s also competent on the mat, especially offensively, with ten professional wins coming by submission. These are two inconsistent fighters, but I do expect Leavitt to secure a win here. Holobaugh is the better striker in this match-up, but Leavitt should be durable enough to secure the takedowns he needs to win rounds. Jordan Leavitt by Decision

Allan Nascimento -130 vs Jafel Filho +110

• Anthony: The next fight comes at men’s flyweight with Jafel Filho taking on Allan Nascimento. It is worth noting that Nascimento was more than a pound heavy at Friday’s weigh-ins. He had previously withdrawn from a fight against Filho back in August of last year. I think perhaps Nascimento knows he is in for a tough fight here against his fellow Brazilian. Chute Boxe Diego Lima and Nova Unao have been camps that have gone head to head for many years. Filho has looked great recently representing his team well. Both of his most recent fights resulted in Filho winning via round one submission. He is not quite as credentialed a grappler as Nascimento but Filho is confident competing with his ground game. Filho was even able to put Muhammad Mokaev in compromising positions on the mat. He seems to be the more motivated athlete and apart from all that, he is a much better striker than Nascimento. While Nascimento connects with some reckless power, Filho is technically much better and lands more shots in combination. There is less value on Filho now with odds closing but I do pick him with confidence here as the betting underdog. His ability to pair his hands with that jiu jitsu makes him much more dangerous than Nascimento. Jafel Filho by Round Two KO
• Nick: Allan Nascimento has outstanding BJJ, he’s excellent in scrambles and he isn’t afraid to pull guard. He’s extremely aggressive on the mat offensively, as fifteen of his twenty professional wins have come via submission. Nascimento most recently secured a submission win over Carlos Hernandez, but he’s been out of action since that fight back in January of 2023. His striking is mostly predictable and he can be hittable in exchanges, but he pursues takedowns aggressively in most of his fights. Filho gained a lot of attention off a loss in his UFC debut, where Filho took on Muhammad Mokaev and nearly finished him in a very close fight as a massive underdog. Filho showed effective striking, and excellent wrestling and BJJ in that match-up. He nearly finished Mokaev via kneebar, before he was eventually reversed and submitted late in the third round. He has since secured back-to-back wins via first round submission, which has improved his record to 2-1 in the UFC. Filho’s striking isn’t the weakness it was earlier in his career, but he’s certainly looking to grapple more often than not. These are two similar fighters which makes this a tough fight to call. I’m seeing value in Filho as the more active fighter in this match-up and the better striker if this fight takes place on the feet. Jafel Filho by Decision

Main Card- Starts 9:00pm EST

Zach Reese -240 vs Dusko Todorovic +190

• Anthony: This is a fight at middleweight between Zach Reese and Dusko Todorovic. These are two fighters that possess offensive firepower at the sacrifice of defensive awareness. Todorovic has been finished in the first round of three of his previous four appearances. His only victory since 2021 came in a brawl against Jordan Wright. I think Todorovic is incredibly chinny and also up against it here fighter the bigger and longer Reese. We have seen Reese use his length with great efficiency and all but one of his professional fights have ended in round one. I think he will be quick to attack Todorovic aggressively with his jab and power shots. He should feel confident landing his attacks at range and even while Todorovic moving forward. Reese uses his kicks well as a weapon and attacks opponents to the body and the head. He also has the grappling advantage in this fight if things weren’t to go well against Todorovic standing. I am expecting a quick finish by Reese likely by a flurry of striking. He is one of my most confident picks on this fight card today. Zach Reese by Round One KO
• Nick: Zach Reese is 8-2 professionally, coming off a brutal KO loss to Azamat Bekoev. At his best he thrives on aggression. Seven of Reese’s eight professional victories had come via first round stoppage. As impressive as Reese has been on the surface, most of his wins have come against a questionable level of competition. Reese is long for the division with dangerous BJJ, but his defense both at striking range and on the mat is questionable at best. He’s athletic with a solid frame, but it’s tough to know what to expect of him at the UFC level as he has been generally inconsistent to this point of his career. Dusko Todorovic is an extremely powerful striker with crisp boxing and a solid ground game. He’s well rounded with a solid grappling base, but he seems most comfortable on his feet. He throws powerful combos and uses the fence well to put his opponents in difficult positions. That being said, he also fights with his hands down at times and he leaves himself open to counter shots. As a result, each of Todorovic’s last three losses have come via KO. There are two inconsistent fighters and they each have terrible durability. While I don’t like the price here, Reese is the much longer fighter here and I expect he can use his length to find a knockout in a chaotic exchange. It is a bad price but Reese should be able to get it done early in this one. Zach Reese by Round One KO

Macy Chiasson -135 vs Ketlen Vieira +115

• Anthony: Next is a women’s featherweight fight between Ketlen Vieira and Macy Chiasson. It is unfortunate that Vieira could not get under the 146 pound limit for this fight. Her most recent loss came against Kayla Harrison and I think her chances of success moving forward are slim. There are not many opponents for Vieira if she cannot make bantamweight and the few fighters that do compete this heavy are more skilled and strong. Chiasson has a decisive striking advantage here in this fight against Vieira. She has excellent muay thai and much more power than Vieira. She has averaged 70 percent takedown defense and with her size I think Vieira will struggle to get her grounded. Vieira does not command much respect on the feet and she does not throw enough offense. Not only does Vieira have a negative striking differential but she has been outlanded by her opponent in ten consecutive fights. Chiasson should be able to touch her up here. I am not making a confident selection for this fight but due to the weight miss I am fading Vieira. Chiasson has been performing well on her recent win streak. Macy Chiasson by Decision
• Nick: Ketlen Vieira is a blackbelt in both BJJ and Judo. She has strong takedown and submission ability, but she seems entirely content to fight at striking range or up against the cage. Most of her success in the UFC has come against inferior grapplers, and having lost two of her last three fights, there is no denying the fact she’s entering the back half of her career. Macy Chiasson is most effective striking in the clinch. She carries a powerful muay-thai base from which she mixes in dangerous elbows. She uses her reach well, but she is most effective when she closes distance and pulls her opponents into her strikes. She’s big for the division, and she’s able to outmuscle the majority of her opponents at bantamweight. Chiasson will have the technical advantage on the feet here, but it’s likely by a very small margin. Chiasson could be in trouble if she finds herself on her back, but I expect she is strong enough to mostly keep this fight standing. Macy Chiasson by Decision

Dustin Jacoby -200 vs Bruno Lopes +160

• Anthony: Here is a good matchup at light heavyweight between Dustin Jacoby and Bruno Lopes. In his last fight Lopes was a +210 underdog but beat Magomed Gadzhiyasulov in a rather lopsided decision. The Brazilian is a solid athlete with good size and power for this weight, we have just yet to see him really tested against upper echelon competition. It is not surprising to see him beating low-level challengers as a former LFA light heavyweight champion. Jacoby is a much more credentialed kickboxer with 15 total fights in the UFC. He is much more experienced when it comes to fighting patiently and winning decisions at 205 pounds. Jacoby lands nasty counters and normally keeps a steady pace over the course of a full fifteen minutes. I expect Lopes to struggle dealing with Jacoby’s consistent offensive volume. Jacoby has 62 percent takedown defense and likely can keep Lopes standing and trading for the early portion of this bout. I think he is the much better technical striker and Jacoby is very likely going to win. Betting him at -200 seems fair but I would not bet as much if the price was worse. Jacoby is a tough opponent to stop and I think Lopes’ only path to victory is landing that lucky knockout. Dustin Jacoby by Round Two KO
• Nick: Bruno Lopes is 32-years old and 14-1 professionally. He’s relatively well-rounded, with six wins coming via KO and five coming via submission. He’s fought a decent level of regional competition, but he’s tough to get a read on as his kill-or-be-killed style makes him as vulnerable as he is dangerous. He secured a win in his UFC debut over Magomed Gadzhiyasulov via decision, but there is no denying this match-up represents a dramatic step up in terms of level of competition. Dustin Jacoby has excellent striking ability. A former Glory Kickboxer, he presents a diverse arsenal of kicks and he generally does a good job using them to keep his opponents at range. Jacoby has a nice jab, a strong left hook, and he has continuously shown an ability to eat punches in order to throw them. He’s been inconsistent over his last few fights, but he’s still a tough out for the majority of the division. Jacoby’s durability is a bit of a concern here, but he’s been taking on a much higher level of competition compared to Lopes. I expect this fight will take place on the feet, where Jacoby’s technical advantages should shine through. Dustin Jacoby by Round Two KO

Billy Ray Goff -400 vs Ramiz Brahimaj +300

• Anthony: Next is a fight at welterweight between Ramiz Brahimaj and Billy Ray Goff. This is a short notice appearance for Brahimaj who steps in to replace Seokhyeon Ko. It should be an easier stylistic matchup for Goff who can handle the boxing presence of a guy like Brahimaj. Over his previous eleven fights, Brahimaj has alternated wins and losses. He beat Mickey Gall by knockout in his last appearance at UFC 309. I was happy to cash an underdog ticket betting on Brahimaj in that bout but I knew exactly what we were going to get out of him. All of his wins are against extremely low-level competition while better opponents easily clear him. Goff has much more power than Brahimaj and the more complete skillset overall. We have seen heavy handed opponents at welterweight give Brahimaj a lot of problems in the past. On short notice I do not expect him to respond well as Goff’s big power shots land. He will likely struggle to keep pace with Goff who is the better overall athlete. Although Goff lost in his last matchup it was a Fight of the Night performance against Trey Waters. I expect Goff to get back into the win column and earn this victory via stoppage. Billy Ray Goff by Round Three KO
• Nick: Ramiz Brahimaj is primarily a grappler with ten of his eleven professional wins coming via submission. He usually starts fights aggressive, but if he can’t find the early finish his cardio has been somewhat of a weakness. On the feet, he has sneaky power and he pushes at a good pace. However, he often overexerts while throwing combinations and he seems very willing to take damage in exchanges. Billy Goff is known for his excellent cardio and durability. He has been caught in exchanges before, but he has shown excellent recoverability and a desire to continue fighting even in the most compromising of positions. He has surprising power for his frame and he’s decent at striking in the pocket. This is a low level match-up which makes it a tough fight to call. I slightly prefer the Goff side as I expect his durability will allow him to take over this fight in the later rounds. Another mispriced favorite, but a rightful favorite nonetheless. Billy Ray Goff by Decision

Mateusz Gamrot -155 vs Ludovit Klein +130

• Anthony: The co-main event is a great bout at lightweight between Ludovit Klein and Mateusz Gamrot. This fight acts as a great test for Klein as he looks to ascend into the top ranks at 155 pounds. He is now on a six fight winning streak boasting some of the best striking in the division. Klein lands shots with impact and does well following up as he gets opponents hurt. He excels when it comes to competing as a kickboxer and diversifying his shots to the body and the legs. While Klein has a decisive edge striking in this matchup, Gamrot is the much better wrestler. Gamrot is an elite grappler but a lot of his takedowns come from shooting on low single-leg attempts. As he faces a southpaw today it is crucial that Gamrot uses different entries and chains together his takedowns. I expect him to get Klein to the mat on quite a few occasions here tonight. Gamrot can also score takedowns by timing his entries as Klein lands his kicks. He will make it a point to expose Klein’s grappling after nobody has taken him down thus far in the UFC. Gamrot will have to work very hard for his takedowns but once on the mat I expect him to get the job done. Gamrot is strong in top position and he only has to control Klein for three rounds here tonight. That grappling pressure will neutralize Klein’s great striking and make this one of his less exciting appearances. Mateusz Gamrot by Decision 
• Nick: Ludovit Klein is well-rounded and continues to show improvements in all facets of his game. He has a solid grappling base, and the precision and power behind his strikes is something to behold. He does a good job using feints to court his opponent’s into powerful shots, and his left high kick is as dangerous as any singular strike in the division. He continues to show improvement in his grappling ability, but there is no denying he’s most content to stand and exchange on the feet. Klein is on a four fight win-streak coming into this match-up, and he hasn’t lost a fight since 2021. Mateusz Gamrot is an excellent chain grappler with a wide range of effective takedown entries. He does an excellent job getting low in pursuit of single legs. He has ridiculous cardio, a solid chin, and excellent instincts both scrambling and in striking exchanges. While he doesn’t really have true one-punch knockout power, he lands meaningful strikes that force his opponents to respect him no matter where the fight goes. Klein is the more dangerous striker in this match-up, but Gamrot’s pressure style of wrestling is likely going to be too much for him to manage. Nothing would surprise me in this one, but Gamrot is the side. Mateusz Gamrot by Decision

Erin Blanchfield -240 vs Maycee Barber +190

• Anthony: The main event is a women’s flyweight contest between Maycee Barber and Erin Blanchfield. While this fight should be touted as a title eliminator it appears that Barber is not yet ready for that consideration after missing weight. She was a half-pound over the limit on Friday and already up against it here as the betting underdog. While Barber has looked improved with each of her recent performances I still do not view her as a legitimate threat to the flyweight top five. The recent winning streak has seen Barber take steps in the right direction but I think a lot of the elite fighters at this weight can still beat her. Barber likes boxing and getting into brawls with her hands, warranted given her power and high striking output. An opponent like Blanchfield has the grappling skillset to really nullify a lot of what Barber can do best. It is the close matchups standing that Barber can sway by moving forward and asserting herself. In this five round fight against Blanchfield, Barber will likely be struck against the fence or taken down to the mat each round. Blanchfield has great wrestling and a better knowledge of position compared to Barber. Blanchfield has also already proven herself capable of executing a gameplan like this before. She has had quality performances recently against Manon Fiorot, Taila Santos and Rose Namajunas. The five round experience is a huge edge for her and Barber will struggle to keep pace. Blanchfield has also been slightly more active as she builds towards this title shot. I think she is certainly the rightful favorite in this matchup. Erin Blanchfield by Decision
• Nick: Maycee Barber has always been a highly regarded prospect, but she hit a bit of a wall back in 2020. She tore her ACL, falling as a massive favorite to Roxanne Modafferi and then dropped another decision to Alexa Grasso when she made her return in 2021. She has since regained some of her hype and momentum as she’s strung together six consecutive wins. She’s been out of action since March of 2024, but many feel she’ll be in line for a title shot if she can secure a win in this match-up. In spite of a recent loss to a top contender in Manon Fiorot, Erin Blanchfield has secured impressive wins over Rose Namajunas, Tailia Santos, Jessica Andrade, and Miranda Maverick. She’s primarily a grappler with a solid wrestling base, decent technical ability on the feet and an extremely high Fight IQ. She’s fairly slow and plodding when she strikes, but she puts out a lot of volume. She does an excellent job using her strikes to set up her takedown attempts ,and once she’s on top she does a good job using her weight to hold position. She continues to make considerable improvements as she’s only 26-years old, and many have her pegged as a future champion at 125 pounds. Barber is the more dangerous striker here, but Blanchfield is the far better grappler and she also has five round experience. Additionally, it’s a bad sign for Barber that she missed weight coming off an extended layoff. Erin Blanchfield by Decision

-Nick Marro

Twitter: @NickMarroDFS

-Anthony Marro

Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_

Photo: UFC.com