UFC 312: Du Plessis vs Strickland 2 Fight Predictions and Analysis

UFC 312: Du Plessis vs Strickland II – 2.8.2025 – Fight Predictions and Analysis

Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC 312: Du Plessis vs Strickland II. This event is headlined by a rematch at middleweight deciding the world champion here in Sydney, Australia. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick as our records will not reflect confidence in each selection. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few.

Current Record

Anthony: 24-14-0 (Last Year 321-191-0, 63%)
Nick: 22-16-0 (Last Year 316-196-0, 62%)

*Fight odds were last updated from Bet99 on 2-7-2024 at 10pm EST

Early Prelims- Starts 6:30pm EST

Quillan Salkilld -650 vs Ashul Jubli +470

Anthony: Opening this event is a lightweight matchup between Quillan Salkilld and Anshul Jubli. Both fighters here are 7-1 and evenly matched. Salkilld has converted a successful amateur career into an impressive start as a professional fighting in Asia-Pacific. He is one of numerous Australians on this card and I think he is rightfully favored here against Jubli. Salkilld is aggressive with good striking and an above average ground game. He seems likely to test his grappling in this fight against the good wrestling of Jubli. Perhaps there is some bias regarding these odds and Jubli’s last performance. His undefeated record was tarnished at the hands of Mike Breeden when Jubli threw away a fight he had been winning. Breeden’s verbal taunts cause Jubli to totally crumble and quit in round three. He can strike and wrestle with the best of them but Jubli appears to lack that fighting spirit. Salkilld will probably follow a similar blueprint and look to push Jubli to limit early. The Aussie should be able to set a high pace with a decisive cardio advantage here. Jubli has legitimate skills and he is certainly more live than +470 odds would suggest. Quillan Salkilld by Round Two Submission
Nick: Quillan Salkild will be making his UFC debut here, coming off a solid Contender Series win by decision over Gauge Young. Salkild is just 25-years old, and 7-1 professionally, having not lost a fight since his professional debut back in 2021. Salkild is relatively well-rounded with two professional wins coming via KO and three coming via submission. He fights at a torrid pace and he’s shown to have excellent cardio, having won a five-round fight regionally for the Eternal MMA Lightweight Championship in 2023. Anshul Jubli is 7-1, coming off his first career loss facing Mike Breeden back in October 2023. He was finding success early in that fight, but his cardio quickly faded after he couldn’t put his opponent away early. Jubli is relatively well-rounded, but it’s tough to gauge his skill level as he has only been fighting professionally since 2019. He has decent offensive grappling ability, but he lacks the wrestling ability to take most opponents to the ground. Jubli is content to counterstrike and he does possess fight-ending power, but his tentative style does present opportunity for his opponents to score well on him early in fights. The price is somewhat ridiculous here as Salkilld has yet to be tested at the UFC level. Still, he is the rightful favorite. I expect he can dominate this fight on the mat if/when he chooses to take it there. Jubli can be dangerous early, but I’m siding with Salkilld. Quillan Salkilld by Round Two Submission

Kevin Jousset -220 vs Jonathan Micallef +180

Anthony: Next is a matchup at welterweight between Jonathan Micallef and Kevin Jousset. I think this is a bounce back opportunity for Jousset. He lost in his last performance against Bryan Battle and now faces Micallef who I consider a step down in competition. Battle was able to stop Jousset thanks to his killer instinct and overwhelming pressure. Battle stayed aggressive and on his front foot throughout that fight giving Jousset little space to work. He should fair much better here against Micallef who is less of a threat while this fight is on the feet. Jousset’s kickboxing should be much cleaner, picking apart Micallef with the more technical attacks. Micallef does not involve much apart from his hands when he is striking. He will want to take Jousset down to the mat but that is much easier said than done. We have yet to see Jousset cede a takedown since joining the UFC. As a small betting favorite he is one of my more confident picks on this card. Micallef will struggle to close distance on Jousset or do anything to really rattle his confidence. Kevin Jousset by Decision
Nick: Kevin Jousset is a former HEX Welterweight and Middleweight Champion, and a highly regarded prospect training out of City Kickboxing. At 31-years old he’s gotten a late start to his career with the promotion, but he has been impressive in spite of mixed results. Jousset prefers to stand and exchange on his feet. He’s a decent grappler, but most of his success has come through striking at range and then mixing in elbows when closing distance. He has excellent footwork and seems to time counters better than a large percentage of the division. He suffered a loss his last time out, but it came to one of the division’s rising contenders in Bryan Battle. Jonathan Micallef will be making his UFC debut in this match-up, coming off a Contender Series win via submission of Mohamed Ado. Micallef is 7-1 professionally, with two wins coming via KO and three coming via submission. He’s still developing as a prospect at just 25-years old, but he is a dangerous offensive grappler and he seems to be mostly durable. Micallef is somewhat of an unknown, but I still feel confident Jousset can outclass him no matter where this one goes. Kevin Jousset by Decision

Kody Steele -300 vs Rongzhu +240

Anthony: This is shaping up to be a fun lightweight tilt between Rongzhu and Kody Steele. These are two high level wrestlers that do not tend to worry when opponents want to keep it on their feet. The brawling style of each gives this match potential of being the Fight of the Night. 22 of 25 wins for Rongzhu have come by way of the finish. He has also been stopped in all but one of his losses. I am certainly expecting we see a finish here one way or another. Rongzhu has a little bit of size on Steele and winning by knockout would not surprise me. However, Steele seems like a great prospect and I think he will take a smart approach against the striker. Steele has exceptional wrestling and by using his level changes he can really control this bout against Rongzhu. Steele should be effective when it comes to converting explosive attempts at Rongzhu’s legs. He does well at maintaining top position when he does get his opponents’ back on the mat. Steele also showcased massive improvements to his striking on Dana White’s Contender Series. If he does want to box against Rongzhu he will find a lot of success ending combinations to the body. Rongzhu’s poor defense will likely be what ultimately ends up costing him this fight. Steele is somebody that seems like a handful to fight with his cardio and aggressive style. I will be betting on him here in his debut. Kody Steele by Round Two KO
Nick: Kody Steele will be making his UFC debut in this matchup, coming off an impressive Dana White’s Contender Series win knocking out Chasen Blair. Steele is a highly-regarded prospect, who enters the promotion with a perfect 7-0 professional record. He fights out of a solid camp via Syndicate MMA, and most of his professional experience has come within a respectable regional promotion in Fury FC. Steele is primarily a grappler, but he carries sneaky power on the feet. He does a good job baiting opponents into lengthy combinations, and he generally does a good job attacking the body as he forces his opponents to fight at a grueling pace. Rongzhu is a highly technical striker with an aggressive style and outstanding countering ability. He’s a competent wrestler, but he’s still learning to transition between his striking and his grappling. He was once an extremely highly regarded prospect, but he was cut from the UFC after mixed results as an underdeveloped raw talent. He worked his way back to the promotion, but he suffered another loss his last time out, falling via TKO to Chris Padilla. Rongzhu certainly seems stronger than his first stint in the promotion, but at just 24-years old he’s still somewhat raw in his abilities. Steele is debuting here, but his grappling experience should far exceed anything Rongzhu has dealt with to this point. I like Steele to get it done here, and his clearest path to victory is certainly on the mat. Kody Steele by Round Two Submission

Preliminary Card- Starts 8:00pm EST

Aleksandre Topuria -350 vs Colby Thicknesse +275

Anthony: This is a fight at bantamweight between Colby Thicknesse and Aleksandre Topuria. It is a short notice booking with Thicknesse stepping in for the injured Cody Haddon. Topuria is making his debut here, the older brother of featherweight champion Ilia Topuria. It will be interesting to see how Aleksandre handles his early career, looking to share in the spotlight of Ilia who has all of Spain behind him. There is very little substance behind either of these athletes, both early in their professional careers. Topuria has shown very little on the feet, mostly just marching forward with his right hand cocked. Thicknesse is the more skilled kickboxer with a wider variety of attacks on the feet. The power advantage appears to be with Topuria although all of his finishes have come against incredibly weak competition. He is dangerous in terms of his boxing as well as his ground and pound. With this fight being so tough to predict I find myself favoring Thicknesse as the underdog. Although this appearance comes on short notice for him, Thicknesse is fighting at home here in New South Wales. He is someone I am comfortable betting at this number for value. It is a fight between two guys that both look like amateurs. Colby Thicknesse by Decision
Nick: Aleksandre Topuria will be making his UFC debut here, with a 5-1 professional record at 29-years old. Topuria has a fair amount of hype coming into the promotion as the older brother of Ilia Topuria, the current UFC Featherweight Champion and one of the greatest pound-for-pound fighters in the world. Similarly to his brother, Topuria has potent offensive grappling ability. While he is nowhere near the technician that his brother is on the feet, he does carry KO power and his striking continues to show improvements every time he enters the cage. It’s tough to truly gauge his talent as he is only 5-1 professionally against a questionable level of opposition. Still, there is no denying he has exceptional intangibles in his favor. Colby Thicknesse will be making his UFC debut here, taking this fight on short notice as a late replacement for the injured Cody Haddon. Thicknesse is 25-years old and 7-0 professionally, but similarly to Topuria he has yet to take on anyone on the level of the UFC roster. Thicknesse is relatively well-rounded, but he prefers to grapple. He has solid cardio and fights at a respectable pace, but on the feet he is hittable and he has trouble holding opponents down once he grounds them. The line feels wide here, but I expect Topuiria’s superior strength and overall athleticism to be the difference. He’s going to be difficult to take down, and he’s the much more dangerous striker in this matchup. Aleksandre Topuria by Round Two KO

Wang Cong -400 vs Bruna Brasil +300

Anthony: Next is a bout at women’s flyweight between Wang Cong and Bruna Brasil. Cong saw her undefeated record disappear at the hands of Gabriella Fernandes just two months ago. As the -950 betting favorite Cong was dropped badly and then submitted by rear naked choke. It was not a good performance for such a credentialed kickboxer with a high-ceiling on her way into the promotion. Cong still has the skills to find these rankings but she has to adapt more to competing in mixed martial arts. Brasil does not seem like an opponent that plans on challenging Cong much on the mat. If this is going to be a striking match between the two flyweights I do think Cong will find success. She is a step faster than Brasil and much better at controlling her distance. I am not going to worry much about Cong’s chin here off one single performance. She is much more technically skilled than Brasil. I am confident picking her to win this fight but there is no reason to bet Cong as such a heavy favorite. Wang Cong by Decision
Nick: Wang is 32-years old and 6-1 professionally. She’s getting a late start to her MMA career, but she’s been kickboxing for years and she’s quite athletic compared to the majority of the women’s flyweight division. Wang is fairly well-rounded, but it’s certainly at striking range where she finds most of her success. She puts out a ton of volume on the feet, and while she doesn’t carry much power, her speed and precision give her finishing upside against lower level opponents. As talented as she is, she’s coming off a brutal upset loss in which she was club-and-subbed by Gabriella Fernandes as a massive -900 favorite. She’ll be looking to correct her trajectory in a winnable fight against a well-rounded opponent in Bruna Brasil. Bruna Brasil is 10-4-1 professionally, with three of those wins coming via KO and two via submission. She’s coming off a career best win over Molly McCann via decision at UFC 304, and a lot of her recent improvement can be credited to her training with an excellent camp via Fighting Nerds in Brazil. Brasil is strong with a large frame for the division. She’s shown a well-rounded skill set, but there is no denying she should be looking to grapple in this match-up. The line is egregious here, especially coming off Wang’s disappointing performance her last time out. That being said, I do expect she can mostly keep this fight standing where Brasil will struggle to keep up. Wang Cong by Decision

Viacheslav Borshchev -120 vs Tom Nolan +100

Anthony: This should be a great match at lightweight between Tom Nolan and Viacheslav Borshchev. Nolan is an exciting 24-year-old and Queensland native that should have this crowd behind him. With a huge frame for lightweight, Nolan is an offensive dynamo with very good finishing instincts. He often fights with a very aggressive style, moving forward and attacking quickly with his hands. While I consider Nolan’s grappling to be a work in progress, he does have a decisive advantage against Borschev if he does elect to wrestle here. Nolan is accustomed to firing early and I think he will instead try to dance with Borshchev on the feet. Borshchev may not match him in terms of power but I expect him to get the better of these exchanges. I have to favor the better technical striker in this fight. Borshchev cannot be taken lightly with his wealth of kickboxing experience. Years of training has rewarded him with impeccable timing and a great variety of attacks. I like how Borshchev strings together his combinations and attacks all levels when his foes are hurt. He will need to survive an onslaught from Nolan in round one but after that this should be Borshchev’s fight to lose. I expect him to put his striking on display and find a knockout against Nolan. Viacheslav Borshchev by Round Two KO
Nick: Viacheslav Borschev is primarily a kickboxer. He throws extremely powerful shots with all of his limbs and he seems to have excellent head movement and footwork. As talented as he is on the feet, his grappling leaves a lot to be desired. He trains at a grappling focused camp via Team Alpha Male where he serves as a striking coach. It can be expected his wrestling will continue to improve, but he’s going to have trouble against the stronger grapplers in this division. Additionally, at 33-years old it seems he could be surpassing his athletic prime. Tom Nolan 24-years old, fighting out of Queensland, Australia. He’s an aggressive striker with solid BJJ, but he certainly seems to favor fighting on the feet. Five of his eight professional wins have come via KO. He is 2-1 in the UFC, most recently securing a decision win over Alex Reyes at UFC 305. Nolan is quick and athletic, and he has finishing ability on the mat or at striking range. However, as dangerous as he is offensively his durability and cardio have not been strengths for him so far in his young career. This is a volatile match-up between two inconsistent fighters, but I expect Borschev to outclass Nolan on the feet here as he manages to keep this fight standing. Viacheslav Borshchev by Round Two KO

Gabriel Santos -220 vs Jack Jenkins +180

Anthony: The prelims close with featherweights Jack Jenkins and Gabriel Santos. This is a compelling stylistic matchup and likely a back and forth affair. Jenkins has been starting to make a name for himself but there are some clear holes in his game. His striking is exceptional, working his boxing out of both stances and switching sides seamlessly. His striking defense has been rather tight and here against Mosquitinho he should have the advantage standing. Santos is a talented grappler boasting a brown belt in jiu jitsu. He averages more than one takedown landed per round and if he is going to wrestle here I like his chances of beating Jenkins. We have seen Jenkins taken down in all four of his previous UFC appearances. Santos will probably secure at least one takedown early in round one or two. He should win a good chunk of the minutes here while Jenkins will have to work more, fighting back to his feet while trying to land meaningful offense. Perhaps Jenkins can score enough with his hands to sway the judges but I think he could have trouble finding his rhythm. Santos will force Jenkins into grappling exchanges and likely build an early lead. The odds on Santos seem a bit too high for what is a very volatile matchup. Jenkins will need to have some massive moments in order to win as the underdog. Gabriel Santos by Decision
Nick: Gabriel Santos is a former LFA Featherweight Tournament Champion. Prior to his promotion to the UFC, he had notable wins over José Delano, Elvis Brener, and Márcio Barbosa. At just 28-years old he’s already put together a decent regional resume and he is now coming off his first UFC win, a decision over Yizha. Santos is aggressive on the feet. He does a good job setting traps for his opponents and he’s shown an advanced ability to string together effective combinations. He’s a solid grappler both offensively and defensively, and his speed and overall agility should continue to prove advantageous for him as he attempts to climb the rankings at 145 lbs. Jenkins is well-rounded and athletic with decent striking fundamentals, explosive power, and solid overall wrestling ability. He’s capable of weaponizing his cardio and taking fights over late, but we really haven’t seen him tested extensively against top level competition. He’s coming off a win over Herbert Burns via KO, but Burns has since been cut from the promotion as he was widely regarded as one of the lower level fighters on the roster. He’s still making improvements in all facets of his game, but it’s tough to gauge his upside until we see him fighting more frequently. Jenkins’ greatest attack is his leg kick, which I fully expect he’ll try to rely on here. That being said, if Santos ends up hurt on the feel he will have his grappling to fall back on. This should be a competitive match-up, but I do prefer the Santos side here as the superior grappler in this matchup. Gabriel Santos by Decision

Main Card- Starts 10:00pm EST

Jake Matthews -240 vs Francisco Prado +190

Anthony: The main card starts with this welterweight bout between Jake Matthews and Francisco Prado. This should be a good scrap as most Matthews fights normally quickly see action. Prado is a decent athlete but still very young in terms of his development. This is his first fight moving up to welterweight and he continues to really fill up his staunch frame. Prado packs a serious punch and wants to engage Matthews here in the octagon center. He may struggle to land as often as Matthews, dealing with a four-inch advantage in reach. A key factor in this fight will be Matthews durability compared to a lot of guys that Prado has more easily disposed of. His boxing has drastically improved and in terms of strikes landing in the pocket we will see Matthews converting as often, or more than Prado. It may be a difficult fight for these judge’s to score but I expect Matthews to do the better work over fifteen minutes. He can also win against Prado along the fence or perhaps even convert one or two takedowns. We have not seen Prado really ever succeed when tested against upper echelon grapplers. Matthews has that wrestling in his skillset and perhaps that is the easier path to victory for him today. Jake Matthews by Decision
Nick: Jake Matthews has more experience at this level than almost any other 30-year-old in the world. He’s a well-rounded fighter who has found most of his success on the mat. He has 13 wins under the UFC banner since he debuted back in 2014, but most of them have come against fighters that are no longer on the roster/with the promotion. His striking continues to improve, but he can be hittable in exchanges. Francisco Prado fights aggressively, especially early in fights. He’s more than content to exchange in a ‘fire fight’, but his defense can be compromised as a result. He has decent BJJ offensively, but his takedown entries are fairly predictable and it’s become increasingly rare we see him lean on his grappling. All of Prado’s wins have come via finish. He is 12-2 professionally, coming off a hard fought decision loss to a tough out in Daniel Zellhuber. Prado is dangerous on the feel, but he’s going to struggle if Matthews chooses to mix in his grappling here. Additionally, Prado will be significantly outsized here as he is moving up a weight class. Matthews has been inconsistent, but this does feel like a match-up in which he should be able to find success. Jake Matthews by Decision

Rodolfo Bellato -155 vs Jimmy Crute +130

Anthony: Next is a light heavyweight matchup between Jimmy Crute and Rodolfo Bellato. This fight has huge implications as Crute enters having not won in four straight appearances. In Australia and with his job on the line, this is a fight that Crute absolutely must win. My issue with Crute is his grappling heavy approach with a lack of well roundedness. He is very much reliant on the takedown and utilizing his offensive jiu jitsu. Crute not only struggles to keep opponents under control on the mat but he also lacks much in terms of his striking offense. It is difficult for Crute to find easy takedowns due to the fact he cannot set them up with his hands. Belatto is a strong Brazilian that can perhaps stuff these takedown attempts from Crute. He has good hips and honestly would not be out of this fight even if he does get grounded. Bellato has been very gritty in the past and tends to turn up his pressure in rounds two and three. I think his striking will ultimately prove to be too much for Jimmy Crute. This is a great test of whether or not Crute belongs in the UFC. His most recent wins are against abysmal competition such as Sam Alvey, Modestas Bukauskas and Michal Oleksiejczuk. Rodolfo Bellato by Round Two KO
Nick: Rodolfo Bellato is 12-2 professionally, with seven of those wins coming via KO and four coming via submission. He is entering his athletic prime at 29-years old and he fights out of a solid camp via Team Nogueira in Brazil. Bellato is a kill-or-be-killed style fighter who tends to succeed in chaos. He nearly lost his promotional debut to Ihor Potieria his last time out, but after weathering an early storm, he managed to take the fight over and then as he scored a ground-and-pound finish in the second round. Bellato’s only professional losses came to a rising prospect in Vitor Petrino, but it is also notable that he’s been out of action since December of 2023. In spite of his mixed results and general inactivity, Crute was once an exciting prospect at Light Heavyweight. He’s a powerful striker, but many of his wins have come via his outstanding submission ability. Crute is dangerous everywhere, but he is often so aggressive that he sometimes gasses out if he can’t put his opponents away early. Additionally, his durability has been on the decline. Notably, he’s been finished in all four of his professional losses. While I do see Crute as the more skilled fighter in this match-up, I have trouble backing him given his inactivity and recent struggles with mental health. He’s still young, but it’s a major red flag that he was considering retiring after his last fight. I really don’t rate Bellato in terms of his trajectory in the division, but his physical advantages here are enough to secure a finish. Rodolfo Bellato by Round Two KO

Talisson Teixeira -155 vs Justin Tafa +130

Anthony: The featured fight is a heavyweight matchup between Justin Tafa and Talisson Teixeira. I do not think anybody tonight will get as much love from the crowd as Tafa fighting out of Brisbane. The heavyweight slugger is a fan favorite for his brawling style and the knockouts that litter his highlight reel. His last fight was a loss against Karl Wiliams in a fight in which Tafa was dominated in the grappling department. Teixeira will oblige Tafa here on the feet so this is shaping up as a good one. The undefeated Brazilian is huge, listed seven-inches taller than the Aussie. His long range weapons will be a big problem for Tafa as he looks to close in and land bombs. Tafa could perhaps hold Teixeira along the cage here and bully him with shots in very close range. However, at distance Teixeira fights smart and will likely use his speed to pick apart the slower man. Tafa can explode into his shots at any moment but it may be tough for him to connect with Teixeira and overcome such a reach deficit. Teixeira also figures to be the more sound fighter as this bout gets into a second or third round. He is worth the bet at -155 although this is certainly a very volatile matchup. One way or another I expect a big knockout here on pay-per-view. Talisson Teixeira by Round One KO
Nick: Talisson Teixeira will be making his UFC debut here, coming off a Contender Series win via KO of Arthur Lopes. Teixeira is 7-0 professionally, with six of those wins coming by knockout. Teixeira is still developing as a prospect at just 25-years old, but he’s already an extremely dangerous striker. Additionally, he is more athletic and explosive than the majority of the heavyweight division. Justin Tafa had a lot of hype coming into the promotion, but he has been mostly a disappointment so far. He has knockout power, but his cardio is suspect and he hasn’t really shown technical boxing ability on the level of other up-and-comers in this division. He’s likely to have a technical striking advantage in this match-up, but it is expected he’ll be at a considerable disadvantage in terms of overall speed. This is a low level and volatile match-up between two aggressive heavyweights. I’ll take a shot on Tafa as the underdog as the more experienced fighter. I expect he can keep this fight standing, and find a counter for a finish if Teixeira crashes the pocket. Justin Tafa by Round One KO

Tatiana Suarez -120 vs Zhang Weili +100

Anthony: The co-main event is for the women’s strawweight belt as Tatiana Suarez will challenge Zhang Weili. Here we have the undefeated Suarez looking to claim championship gold for the first time ever. The question is whether elite wrestling will be enough to take this title off the champion. Suarez is the best grappler perhaps ever seen at this weight, dominating her opponents with great technique and immense strength. Suarez ranks four for most top position time in the strawweight division with more than 35 total minutes spent in control. She also blends this great wrestling with a black belt in jiu jitsu. Weili will be challenged here if she does end up in bottom position but the champion should probably still be favored against this star on the rise. Weili is confident in her own wrestling and often she is the stronger athlete in the cage. She does well offensively grappling and she has also defended numerous shots throughout her reign. I do not expect her to cede takedowns very easily against the shooting Suarez. Her time spent training in Las Vegas will certainly pay dividends in this particular fight. When this matchup is taking place on the feet, Weili has the clear advantage. She is a much better boxer than Suarez and her power shots land with more effect. Weili will need to be cautious throwing kicks here but at boxing range she should have a field day. These odds will have me betting Weili rather confidently today. It is only the second time she has ever been the underdog, not since originally winning the belt against Jessica Andrade. She is one of the most dominant champions in women’s combat history. And Still. Zhang Weili by Decision
Nick: Tatiana Suarez is best known for her olympic level wrestling ability. She averages more than six successful takedowns per fifteen minutes, and she does an excellent job controlling her opponents and dominating them on the ground. Suarez’s striking is far from refined, but it is effective enough to allow her to close range and then drag most opponents to the mat. She has notable wins over Alexa Grasso, Carla Esparza, and most recently Jessica Andrade. Her career has been plagued by injuries, but she remains undefeated at 10-0 and many have expected her to compete for a title since she debuted on The Ultimate Fighter Season 23. Zhang Weili, the current UFC Strawweight Champion, is coming off wins over Joanna Jerdzejcyk, Carla Esparza, Amanda Lemos, and most recently Yan Xiaonan. She’s 25-3 professionally, but at 35-years old she is still very much within her athletic prime. She is a gifted athlete and extremely strong for the division. She is primarily a striker, but she can finish a fight no matter where it goes. Weili has been training under the Hickman Brothers, some of the better regarded coaches in the world in terms of wrestling in MMA. She’s been showing considerable improvements in her grappling ability, her Fight IQ, and it’s certainly encouraging to know she’s been training with a higher level of athlete than she was in her home gym in China. This is another tough fight to call given Suarez’s history of injuries. Still, I do see her as the rightful favorite here. She’s going to be the bigger fighter in this match-up, and her wrestling and grappling ability is on a level that Zhang really hasn’t had to deal with to this point in her career. Suarez averages more than six takedowns per fifteen minutes, and Zhang has just a 50 percent takedown defense in the UFC. And New. Tatiana Suarez by Round Three Submission

Dricus Du Plessis -220 vs Sean Strickland +180

Anthony: The middleweight title is up for grabs here in a rematch between Sean Strickland and Dricus Du Plessis. These two are running back a fight from one year ago that saw Du Plessis win the title by narrow split decision. I thought that the champion did enough to win that matchup but Strickland certainly had the case for winning numerous rounds. Strickland trusts in his boxing, content to exchange with Du Plessis in the pocket and relying on his defensive shell and elite head movement. The champion enters this bout on a ten-fight winning streak with a lot of solid victories to his credit. Nothing was more impressive than Du Plessis last year in his win over the former champion Israel Adesanya. His aggressive style of kickboxing and consistently crowding opponents makes him a nightmare for most to deal with. Du Plessis is also strong, having scary power for a middleweight and the strength to explode in and out of clinch positions. This is a fighter with 20 of his 22 professional wins coming by way of finish. He will likely be even more aggressive in this rematch with Strickland. There is very little that the challenger can do to hurt the champion or slow his forward momentum. Strickland has made his career of his pace and excellent cardio, but Du Plessis quite clearly has a second gear in terms of his own gas tank. Rather than leave this one to the judge’s I expect him to find a knockout of Strickland. These odds seem fair with Du Plessis favored in a fight we have already seen. He can always rely on his grappling if things are not going to plan on the feet. And Still. Dricus Du Plessis by Round Three KO
Nick: This main event represents a rematch of a fight that took place back in January of 2024. Du Plessis captured the title off of Strickland in that fight, but it came via an extremely narrow decision. Additionally, many felt the fight could have gone either way on the scorecards. Since that fight, Du Plessis defended his title against Israel Adesanya and Strickland secured a convincing decision win over Paulo Costa. The UFC Middleweight Champion, Dricus Du Plessis, throws a lot of volume on the feet. He has a lot of power in all of his limbs, but he’s also competent on the mat with eleven professional wins coming via submission. As dangerous as Du Plessis is, he’s very awkward in his movements and his footwork sometimes leaves him in positions to be countered. His fight IQ is questionable at best and while his cardio does seem decent, he often slows down and looks labored at random times throughout his fights. In spite of his flaws, Du Plessis’ physical gifts have allowed him to go on a dominant run as champion. He’s a powerful athlete with ridiculous strength for a middleweight. What he lacks in finesse, he more than makes up for with brute strength, toughness, and an extraordinary desire to win at any cost. Sean Strickland, a former Middleweight Champion, has only lost to an elite level of competition. He’s an extremely talented kickboxer with excellent takedown defense and underrated BJJ. He does an excellent job countering a wide-range of strikers. He has excellent footwork and head movement. He pushes a serious pace and he does an excellent job weaponizing his cardio, especially in five round fights. The line feels wide here given the close nature of the first match-up between these two. However, I do see Du Plessis as the rightful favorite. Strickland is a fighter who relies on his cardio, and it seems he’s nursing a serious staph infection leading into this fight. Historically, the antibiotic treatment for staph tends to compromise cardio and durability in a big way. This should be competitive, but I expect Du Plessis to retain his title assuming Strickland is unable to weaponize his cardio. And Still. Dricus Du Plessis by Decision

-Nick Marro

Twitter: @NickMarroDFS

-Anthony Marro

Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_

Photo: UFC.com