UFC Abu Dhabi: Sandhagen vs Nurmagomedov – 8.3.2024 – Fight Predictions and Analysis
Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs Nurmagomedov. Coming off a pay-per-view last weekend we are treated to a great slate of bouts here live on ABC from the Ethiad Arena. Our analysis includes a pick for every bout from Dynes Sports contributors Anthony Marro and Nicholas Marro.
As coverage continues, we will keep our records up to date below. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick though as records will not reflect confidence. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few.
Current Record
- Anthony: 189-117-0 (Last Year 307-199-6, 61%)
- Nick: 186-120-0 (Last Year 324-182-6, 64%)
*Fight odds were last updated from Bet99 on 8-2-2024 at 7pm EST
Preliminary Card- Starts 12:00pm EST
Sedriques Dumas -225 vs Denis Tiuliulin +185
- Anthony: The card today begins with middleweights Sedriques Dumas and Denis Tiulilin. This was a bout scheduled for June in Riyadh but canceled due to visa issues for Dumas. I think Tiuliulin has looked absolutely terrible and it seems unlikely he will fight much further in the promotion. Tiuliulin has been finished in three consecutive appearances while hardly keeping his fights competitive. He has poor defensive awareness on the feet and absolutely no skills when fights hit the mat. Tiuliulin is a sieve in terms of his takedown defense and has four losses by submission on his record. Tiuliulin gets the benefit of facing a striker here, but Dumas is much faster and more technical. We will likely see Dumas’ slight reach advantage exaggerated by Tiuliulin’s reckless style. Dumas throws better straight shots down the middle when compared to Tiuliulin. The Russian will likely be lunging in and looking for big overhands to connect. I think this will be an easy win for Dumas on the road in Abu Dhabi. Sedriques Dumas by Round Two KO
- Nick: Sedriques Dumas is an athletic striker whose long reach allows him to pick his opponents apart at a distance. He does a decent job moving in and out of range, he mixes elbows into his combinations well, and he has shown he can place a timely counter with fight-ending power. He’s decent on the mat with a strong choke series, but his takedown defense is mediocre at best. He is 9-2 professionally, and 2-2 in the UFC. Unlike most Russians on the UFC roster, Tiuliulin.is primarily a striker. Each of his last six professional wins have come via KO. He is 1-4 in the UFC, coming off three straight losses for the first time in his career. There’s a good chance he’s cut from the promotion if he can’t secure a win in this spot. Tiuliulin is dangerous offensively, but he telegraphs many of his strikes which leads him open to be countered in chaotic exchanges. If Tiuliulin can find a few takedowns here he’ll be live for the upset. However, that isn’t generally a part of his gameplan. I expect Dumas’ athleticism and speed will prove too much for Tiululin to handle here. The line is getting a bit wide, but I expect the favorite to secure another win inside the distance here. Sedriques Dumas by Round Two KO
Jai Herbert -130 vs Rolando Bedoya +110
- Anthony: This should be a very exciting bout at lightweight with Rolando Bedoya set to face Jai Herbert. Bedoya has looked solid in both previous appearances despite the fact he is still without his first UFC win. This will be the first fight for Bedoya at 155 pounds after taking both previous bouts at welterweight. He looks to be in excellent shape and I am excited to see a better showing from him today. His high volume boxing could beat out the more technical kickboxing coming from the opposite corner. Bedoya will want to crowd the bigger fighter here and let his hands go in combination. Herbert is a great striker when he is given room to work but less efficient landing clean strikes when the going gets rough. I trust Bedoya’s chin quite a bit and I’d love to see him really swing early against Herbert. Herbert seems more likely to fade in this fight aged nine years older than Bedoya. Each will likely have their moments making this a tough match to handicap. I like the underdog although his odds have worsened significantly during the week. On his way to a decision I predict Bedoya makes this three fights in a row landing more than 100 significant strikes. Rolando Bedoya by Decision
- Nick: Jai Herbert is a former Cage Warriors Champion with decent BJJ, but his most recent wins have come via strikes on the feet. He’s most comfortable fighting in the clinch with a strong muay-thai base, but he’s fairly competent no matter where a fight takes him. He fights well at range, and he carries power in all of his limbs. He’s been inconsistent since his UFC debut, but when he’s at his best he’s capable of putting together well-rounded and impressive performances. Rolando Bedoya is 14-2 professionally with four wins coming via KO and three coming via submission. He’s an extremely aggressive striker with a creative arsenal of attacks on the feet. He’s coming off back-to-back losses, both under the UFC banner, but when he’s at his best he does a good job striking at range and circling away from the power of his opponents. Bedoya is moving down a weight class here. It’s going to be interesting to see if that’s a positive or negative for him in regards to both his cardio and durability. I expect Bedoya to land more frequently, but Herbert to land the bigger and more damaging shots. Additionally, I expect Herbert can lean on a grappling advantage if he’s not having success at striking range. Jai Herbert by Decision
Victoria Dudakova -175 vs Sam Hughes +145
- Anthony: This is a matchup at strawweight between Sam Hughes and Victoria Dudakova. The undefeated Dudakova should have the edge here over Sam Hughes in most areas. Hughes is an athlete I have faded a lot through eight promotional appearances. She is undersized in this division and lacks much in terms of standout skills. Hughes is tough and a high pressure fighter but not much of a threat in any area. Dudakova places much harder strikes than Hughes and can likely match the high pace if these two are kickboxing. Dudakova is even more well suited to grapple here against an opponent in Hughes that does not defend many takedowns. Dudakova should be significantly stronger than Hughes and I expect that to be visible on the mat. Hughes is always a live underdog but I do not think +145 is a fair number to play. Victoria Dudakova by Decision
- Nick: Victoria Dudakova is 8-0 professionally and only 25-years-old. She’s decent on the feet, but most comfortable in grappling exchanges as four of her eight professional wins have come via submission. She has already secured two UFC wins, over Istela Nunes and Jinh Yu Frey. However, this match-up does represent a step up in terms of competition. Hughes is fairly well rounded, tough and relatively durable. However, offensively she really doesn’t carry any stand out skills. She is 8-6 professionally and while she has shown improvement in all facets of her game, it’s tough to expect she’ll ever climb the ranks of 115 lbs.I expect Hughes can keep this close early, but as the fight wears on Dudakova’s technical advantages should shine through. She is the better striker and she should have a considerable advantage if this fight hits the mat. I do see Dudakova as overrated, but I’m not sure Hughes has enough skill to pull off the upset. Victoria Dudakova by Decision
Guram Kutateladze -225 vs Jordan Vucenic +185
- Anthony: This is a fight at lightweight with Jordan Vucenic set to face Guram Kutateladze. The booking comes on short notice with Guram originally scheduled to face Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady here today. Vucenic takes the opportunity here on short notice and moves up a weight class. He has nine solid wins in Cage Warriors including victories over the likes of Morgan Charriere and Paul Hughes. Vucenic has been staying ready for an opportunity like this but Guram is not an easy draw at all. Vucenic should be a slight favorite while striking given his more fluid kicks and counters compared to Kutateladze. Vucenic is excellent with his muay thai and close ranges where we have seen Kutateladze hurt before. Although I am nervous about the short notice booking, Vucenic should have the cardio advantage the later that this fight goes. He has proven to be very durable just like Kutateladze and not at all afraid of when fights get dirty. I am going to take a shot on him as the sizable underdog. I am a fan of his all-around skillset and the experience Vucenic has in close, grueling fights. Jordan Vucenic by Decision
- Nick: Guram Kutateladze has excellent grappling ability, especially defensively. He’s a dangerous striker, but far from conventional in both his stance and the angles from which he throws. He throws a lot of wild but powerful high kicks. He fights at a torrid pace, he has excellent cardio, and in spite of recent struggles he’s already secured a signature win over a top-10 lightweight in Mateusz Gamrot. Jordan Vucenic will be making his UFC debut here, taking this fight on short notice as a replacement for Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady. Vucenic is 13-2 professionally and 28-years old, and he’s faced a quality level of regional opponent as a former Cage Warriors Featherweight Champion.Vucenic is decent on the feet, but primarily a grappler as six of his thirteen professional wins have come via submission. He fights loosely out of a muay thai stance, and he throws big shots in the clinch and explodes out of breaks. This is a low confidence play, but I do see Kutateladze as the rightful favorite. I expect Vucenic has the higher ceiling in terms of his overall career and upside, but this is a very difficult test here, especially up a weight class. Kutateladze should be able to mostly keep this fight standing where he should have a considerable technical advantage. Guram Kutateladze by Decision
Shamil Gaziev -290 vs Don’Tale Mayes +235
- Anthony: This is a bout at heavyweight with Don’Tale Mayes facing Shamil Gaziev. We saw Gaziev lose his undefeated record in a fight just four months ago against Jairzinho Rozenstruik. Gaziev looked good in the early going there but clearly he may have some deficiencies in terms of his overall cardio. Gaziev is a fighter that can smother and drown his lower level competition in this weight class. He brings steady forward pressure in the octagon with very good strikes inside of the clinch. Gaziev’s grappling is not anything special but I do expect him to quite easily throw Mayes around this cage. While standing upright Mayes presents a real danger to Gaziev but I do not think we see much of this bout contested at distance. Gaziev should limit Mayes’ space in this fight giving him no room at all to breath. I expect him to bounce back off of a loss here with a much more spirited performance. Shamil Gaziev by Decision
- Nick: Shamil Gaziev is 12-1 professionally, with eleven of those wins have come via finish. He’s relatively well-rounded with one shot KO power, a solid wrestling base and decent BJJ. That being said he sometimes leaves himself there to be countered on the feet, he’s far from athletic, and his cardio seems to be a major weakness if his fights are extended. He’s a prospect on the rise in a shallow heavyweight division, but he’s coming off an ugly loss against Jairzinho Rozenstruik in which he was completely outclassed. Don’Tale Mayes is a powerful striker, but he’s sometimes slow and plodding and he often seems to wait for the fight to come to him. He can be explosive once he gets going, but he’s the type of fighter that needs to eat a few shots to wake up and get aggressive. He’s continued to show improvements both in his striking and grappling ability, but there is no denying the fact he’s been dramatically inconsistent at the UFC level. Gaziev is tough to trust at such a wide price, but I expect he can finish Mayes before his cardio becomes a factor. Shamil Gaziev by Round One KO
Kaue Fernandes -400 vs Mohammad Yahya +300
- Anthony: This is a pretty low-level scrap between lightweights Mohammad Yahya and Kaue Fernandes. Yahya earns his placement on this card as a fighter representing the United Arab Emirates. He is a 12-4 professional with very little of note on his resume at 30 years old. Yahya is a scrappy fighter with good pop in his hands but very little in terms of technical skills. Fernandes is the slightly more polished striker with better pure boxing than Yahya. The Brazilian has performed much better regionally than Yahya and trains with a great team at Nova União. My one fear for Fernandes in this fight would be burning too hot early and ceding the late rounds to Yahya. The large underdog does benefit from fighting on home soil where he is rested and cheered on by fans. Still, Fernandes certainly has the skills to knock out Yahya in the early going. I also believe that Yahya could again find himself taken down and controlled easily. Fernandes has shown the ability to get takedowns while Yahya struggles to defend them. Kaue Fernandes by Round Two KO
- Nick: Kaue Fernandes is primarily a striker, fighting out of a solid Brazilian camp in Nova Uniao. He seems competent everywhere, but his wrestling defense is certainly more of a weakness than a strength. He’s coming off an ugly loss in his UFC debut in which he was controlled on the ground by Marc Diakiese. He can be dangerous on the feet, with massive power in his kicks at range, but he’s been inconsistent against even mid-level competition. Mohammad Yahya is the first fighter from the United Arab Emirates to make it in the UFC. He has been fighting regionally for a respectable promotion in UAE Warriors. He is 12-4 professionally, coming off a loss in his UFC debut to Trevor Peek.. Mohammad Yahya prefers to stand and swing on his feet. He’s more technically refined than his opponent in this match-up, but Fernandes’ grappling advantage will likely be too much for him to overcome. I hate the price on him, but Fernandes should be able to win this one on the mat. Kaue Fernandes by Round Two Submission
Azamat Murzakanov -225 vs Alonzo Menifield +185
- Anthony: The featured prelim is a bout between Alonzo Menifield and Azamat Murzakanov. Menifield is currently holding the #15 ranking while Murzakanov is #14 at light heavyweight. I have been impressed by Murzakanov after winning three fights since joining the UFC. The undefeated professional holds the rank Master of Sports in hand to hand combat. He is a very talented southpaw striker with big power on both sides. His muay thai is excellent and Murzakanov weaponizes his knees and elbows very well in any clinch. Often he does not fight with particularly high volume but neither does Alonzo Menifield. Murzakanov should be landing the cleaner shots and sniping Menifield when they compete at range. While Menifield can often find a way to win it will be very tough here to outmuscle his opponent. Menifield generally thrives by grinding on the fence and killing the clock, but that is not a safe hiding place for him against Murzakanov. I think Menifield can hold his own on the feet but he is not going to fair well in a prolonged kickboxing match. Menifield has a puncher’s chance in my eyes but that is it. Murzakanov should see a finish materialize as he begins to touch up Menifield. In his last fight, Menifield was knocked out in just twelve seconds. Azamat Murzakanov by Round Two KO
- Nick: Azamat Murzakanov is well-rounded with surprising speed and power for his frame. He’s certainly capable of winning fights on the feet, but his most dominant performances seem to come when he’s able to mix in his wrestling. Murzakanov enters this match-up undefeated, with an excellent 13-0 record and three wins under the UFC banner. His cardio did seem to fade a bit in his most recent win over Dustin Jacoby, but it’s safe to expect he’s been working to improve on that part of his game. Alonzo Menifield has a massive frame for the division and thirteen of his fifteen professional wins have come via finish within two rounds. He has not seen much in terms of quality competition, but he’s shown tremendous power and you can see he’s improving in pretty much every other aspect of his game. He’s coming off an ugly KO loss to Carlos Ulberg back in May, but prior to that he had won four of his last five fights. Menifield is a dangerous finisher no matter who he’s up against, but Murzakanov is the better technical fighter no matter where this one goes. As long as he stays safe early, I expect he’ll find the finish on a counter. Azamat Murzakanov by Round One KO
Main Card- Starts 3:00pm EST
Joel Alvarez -160 vs Elves Brenner +130
- Anthony: The main card opens with a great scrap at lightweight between Joel Alvarez and Elves Brenner. We should be in for an exciting fight as these two claw for position in such a talent rich division. Alvarez is 6’3” and looked on point when he weighed in Friday. He will have a huge size advantage here facing Brenner who needs to overcome a five-inch reach deficit. Alvarez is a difficult opponent to land strikes on given his frame. We will likely see the Spanish fighter take an early lead here landing the more powerful and consistent strikes from range. Brenner is a talented boxer but I do not think his striking will be enough to convincingly win against Alvarez. I am a fan of Brenner’s pressure and durability but Alvarez is much more technically strong while these two are standing. Brenner should look to grapple here and wear on Alvarez’ gas tank. Opponents have successfully taken down Alvarez on nine of their previous ten total attempts. He poses a real submission threat while on bottom but Alvarez will not be able to win this fight from his back. I expect to see some improved get ups from Alvarez and more of a measured striking pace here. I really like his chances of beating up Brenner if he’s able to establish his range early on. Joel Alvarez by Round Two KO
- Nick: Joel Alvarez is extremely tall for a lightweight. He is decent on the feet, but his offensive grappling is his greatest weapon as a BJJ black-belt with most of his wins coming via submission. He’s been out of action since his win over Marc Diakiese back in July of 2023, mostly due to Visa issues as he’s had trouble fighting in the United States. Alvarez is generally inconsistent, but when he’s at his best he’s a tough fight for any fighter not ranked at 155 lbs. At 31-years old we should continue to see him make improvements, but his lack of activity is certainly somewhat a cause for concern. Elves Brenner is an aggressive striker who does well backing his opponents up against the cage. He has solid durability and cardio, but he sometimes leaves himself open to be countered as he seems to lack defense in exchanges. Brenner’s style makes him a volatile fighter to back, but he’s also a potent finisher. He’s coming off a narrow decision loss to a tough out in Myktybek Orolbai, but at just 26 years old he’s still one of the more impressive young prospects in the division. Alvarez is going to be dangerous early here, but I expect Brenner can pull away as this fight wears on. As good as Alvarez is, I have questions about his cardio and durability. Elves Brenner by Decision
Mackenzie Dern -120 vs Lupita Godinez +100
- Anthony: This should be a compelling matchup at women’s strawweight with Lupita Godinez fighting Mackenzie Dern. Both come off losses in their most recent appearance and look to get into the win column today. Godinez averages one takedown landed per round but her wrestling pedigree could be nullified here by the elite grappling of Dern. Mackenzie Dern is an ADCC and no-gi blackbelt world champion. She has seven professional wins by submission and does very well controlling opponents on the mat. Both women may be tiny but Dern does seem to have a significant advantage over Godinez in terms of her size. I think Dern’s physical strength and superb grappling talent end up proving too much for Godinez. There are limited paths to victory here for the Mexican who oftentimes relies on her takedowns to get the job done. Dern has excellent sweeps and I could see her putting Godinez into several deep submission attempts here. While standing I would prefer Godinez slightly, she poses little to no threat in terms of her power. Dern’s boxing has come a long way but I think Godinez will get the better of her in most exchanges on the feet. Dern certainly will find a way to drag this fight to the mat so I feel very confident betting on her at near even money. Mackenzie Dern by Decision
- Nick: Mackenzie Dern is one of the more decorated BJJ black belts in all of MMA. She has a nearly flawless ground game as a former world No. 1 ranked IBJJF competitor. She is an ADCC and no-gi BJJ World Champion, and a brutal match-up for any opponent when her fights hit the mat. Dern has shown dramatic improvements in her striking over the years. She’s no longer the one-dimensional fighter she was when entering the UFC. Still, she’s coming off back-to-back losses for the first time in her career and it’s going to be important for her to secure a win here to get back on track. Lupita Godinez is a well-rounded fighter, but most of her recent success has certainly come via her grappling. Since entering the UFC, Godinez has averaged more than 3 takedowns per fifteen minutes. Her striking continues to improve, but she absorbs nearly as many strikes as she lands. She doesn’t carry much power, but she throws compact strikes and does a good job mixing kicks into her combinations. Godinez is the better striker in this match-up, but I’m not sure the skill gap on the feet is going to be wide enough to keep Dern from closing distance against her here. This should be competitive, but I expect Dern can do enough to win this on the scorecards if not by submission. Mackenzie Dern by Decision
Michael Chiesa -600 vs Tony Ferguson +450
- Anthony: This is a matchup at welterweight between Tony Ferguson and Michael Chiesa. Ferguson has gone 0-7 in UFC since his last win against Cowboy Cerrone way back in 2019. It is quite a drastic fall from grace as El Cucuy previously held a record at lightweight with 12 straight promotional wins. Now at the age of 40, Ferguson is moving much slower and not responding to adversity well. He no longer can walk through the shots he took as a contender on the rise. Ferguson has also been put into positions on the mat that he can no longer escape reliably. His jiu jitsu seemed to be at a much higher level just a few years ago. The good news for Ferguson is that this matchup with Chiesa presents little to no knockout threat. Chiesa has pillows for hands and very rudimentary striking. Ferguson will be much more technical when kickboxing and even has a chance to hurt Chiesa standing. However, most of this fight will likely be spent on the mat where Chiesa is at his suffocating best. He averages more than one takedown landed per round and generally Mike does very well keeping opponents controlled underneath him. Ferguson will likely fall victim to the body lock and spend most of this fight mounted or with Chiesa in his guard. He will need to let his hands go here in order to have any chance. It seems silly to bet on El Cucuy here but it is also very hard to justify Chiesa at -600 against anyone. I cannot blame anyone for taking a shot on Ferguson at +450. Michael Chiesa by Round Two Submission
- Nick: Michael Chiesa was once one of the more underrated grapplers in the UFC. He is now far past his prime, coming off three consecutive losses to Kevin Holland, Sean Brady and Vicente Luque. In spite of his recent struggles, he is still 16-7 professionally with notable wins over Rafael dos Anjos, Beniel Dariush, and Neil Magny. At his best, Chiesa has an outstanding wrestling base that relies on highly technical body-lock style takedowns and his submission game is extremely creative. Chiesa’s stand-up is serviceable, but his powerful wrestling base and technical abilities on the mat are certainly his greatest strengths. Chiesa averages more than three takedowns per fifteen minutes and his BJJ is outstanding if he can hold top position. That being said, he does have a propensity to make poor decisions in scrambles. He has been submitted in two of his last three fights. Tony Ferguson used to be one of the more dangerous pound-for-pound fighters on the entire roster. He became known for his devastating striking ability, vicious elbows, and excellent BJJ. He is now on a seven fight losing streak and he could be on his way out of the UFC with another loss here. Ferguson seems far gone from who he was when he was in his prime. He’s still a decent wrestler with creative striking ability, but he’s much slower and his reaction time has grown delayed from what it was earlier in his prime. The line feels far too wide here, even with Ferguson on a dramatic decline, but I expect Chiesa’s size and strength to allow him to secure the decision. Michael Chiesa by Decision
Deiveson Figueiredo -145 vs Marlon Vera +120
- Anthony: The featured bout is a matchup at bantamweight between Marlon Vera and Deiveson Figueiredo. The former flyweight champion has looked great up at 135 pounds, beating both Rob Font and Cody Garbrandt. This matchup with Vera is interesting as Chito has always been known for his chin and ability to take a punch. Figueiredo is known for his knockout power but I do not foresee him hitting Vera with any strikes that he cannot handle. Figueiredo will have the early edge striking but this will devolve into a very close match if we see these two trade blows for fifteen minutes. Vera is a live underdog that can win if this does go to the judge’s decision. I think Figueiredo has a clear edge over Vera if he elects to grapple. Not only is Figgy a black belt in jiu jitsu, but he is using his grappling much more in recent fights. He has landed five total takedowns in both of his previous bouts. It is worth noting Vera’s deficiencies on the mat as well. While Vera boasts 70 percent takedown defense, he really struggles to get back up once he has been grounded. I find it hard to predict Figueiredo winning via submission but he can certainly utilize his grappling to make this a fight that he convincingly wins. Deiveson Figueiredo by Decision
- Nick: When he’s at his best, Deiveson Figueiredo is aggressive to the point that his opponents struggle to get into a rhythm against him. He pushes a ridiculous pace and does a good job circling away from danger in striking exchanges. He’s a competent grappler with dangerous BJJ, but he’s certainly most content to stand and trade on the feet. Figueiredo is coming off back-to-back wins at bantamweight as a former UFC Flyweight Champion. He seems extremely comfortable in his new weight class, and he carries a lot of momentum into this match-up. Marlon Vera is one of the tougher guys in this division, borderline impossible to put away and he’s shown a serious ability to up his pressure and pace as the fight gets into the later rounds. He’s excellent at striking in the clinch. He works well up against the cage and he’s shown a willingness to mix devastating elbows into his combinations. Vera is considered a slow starter, but he almost always gains momentum as his fights build into the later rounds. He’s coming off an ugly loss to Sean O’Mailley in which he challenged for the title, and he’ll be looking to bounce back here in this three round match-up. This is easily one of the more exciting fights on the card, and if Vera can keep it standing he’ll be live for the upset. That being said, I expect Figueiredo will mix in his grappling on his way to a narrow decision. Simply, Vera has not yet shored up his grappling defense and that will likely cost him the win here. Deiveson Figueiredo by Decision
Sharabutdin Magomedov -260 vs Michael Oleksiejczuk +210
- Anthony: The co-main event is a fight at middleweight between Sharabutdin Magomedov and Michael Oleksiejczuk. Bullet Magomedov seems to be getting favorable draws here in Saudi Arabia as the UFC looks to build his stock. His first two octagon appearances have drawn some criticism but I really like what I have seen so far from Magomedov. He is an elite striker able to touch and dismantle opponents with his precision punches and kicks. Magomedov has a great leg that he uses to constantly poke at opponents and measure his distance. I think Magomedov has excellent Fight IQ and only shows gaps in terms of his grappling and takedown defense. This matchup with Oleksiejczuk will not be one where Magomedov has his wrestling tested. These two are both going to clash at kickboxing range and Shara Bullet is the much better kickboxer. Oleksiejczuk has been stopped in two straight fights and all three of his previous losses. His skills seem to be declining quickly and I do not expect Oleksiejczuk to respond well to Magomedov’s various attacks. This is one of my most confident picks today, expecting a finish by Magomedov. Sharabutdin Magomedov by Round One KO
- Nick: Sharaputdin Magomedov is an explosive striker, extremely dangerous both at range and in the clinch. He’s a competent wrestler who can dominate in top position, but there is no denying the fact he is most content to stand-and-trade on the feet. Magomedov is very light on his feet. He’s constantly bouncing in the cage and while his strikes can be somewhat untraditional he fights out of a muay-thai stance. He is 13-0 professionally, with eleven of those wins coming via KO. Michael Oleksiejczuk has serious KO power and he does a good job putting consistent pressure on his opponents. Additionally, he has developed a reputation as a fast starter with a lot of quick finishes. Oleksiejczkuk has shown a propensity to fade late in fights, but he’s always dangerous early. His striking is far from refined technically, but he carries a lot of power and works well when he’s countering. Oleksiejczuk will be dangerous early here, but it feels like the UFC is trying to build Magomedov’s stock against an opponent who was recently finished. The price is a bit inflated, but I do expect Magomedov can weather and early storm and stay undefeated. Sharaputdin Magomedov by Round Two KO
Umar Nurmagomedov -350 vs Cory Sandhagen +265
- Anthony: The main event is a high level matchup between the undefeated Umar Nurmagomedov and Cory Sandhagen. Nurmagomedov currently holds the #10 ranking while Sandhagen is #2 at bantamweight. The winner of this fight is very likely next in line to challenge Sean O’Malley. I think most striking exchanges will see Sandhagen finding his way in and out without eating many shots from Nurmagomedov. While I think Umar is an exceptional striker it will be difficult for him to keep up with Sandhagen’s footwork and extremely diverse arsenal of attacks. Nurmagomedov has very good kicks and could look to chop Sandhagen low, limiting his movements and setting up attacks to the head. I am interested to see what sort of reads Nurmagomedov can develop over the course of a five round fight. That being said, Sandhagen is a great bet at these odds if we do see a battle largely on the feet. The fight is favored to go to the judge’s scorecards and in that world Sandhagen is likely to notch at least a few convincing rounds. Nurmagomedov would be best served to look to takedowns here where he can much more comfortably dominate Cory. Nurmagomedov averages 1.50 takedowns landed per round and punishes his opponents when he does get to the mat. He will be much physically stronger than Sandhagen when it comes to grappling and wrestling. I expect him to follow a strict gameplan and while -350 seems like a bad price to pay for Umar, I do expect him to remain undefeated. Umar Nurmagomedov by Round Two Submission
- Nick: We have an excellent bantamweight match-up here between two of the division’s top contenders. Umar Nurmagomedov carries a lot of hype into this matchup, as a former M1 Global Bantamweight Champion and a protege of Khabib Numagomedov. He’s undefeated at 17-0, and a creative striker with excellent footwork and a diverse arsenal of kicks. He’s an excellent wrestler as well, but he has found a lot of success on the feet where he usually overwhelms his opponents with speed and power. Sandhagen has outstanding cardio, which comes as no surprise as he trains in the thin Colorado air at Elevation Fight Team. Sandhagen generally does a good job keeping distance and using his length to pepper his opponents while staying out of danger. He’s coming off impressive wins over Rob Font, Song Yadong, and Marlon Vera. However, he has been out of action since August of 2023 as he had to recover from surgery on his hand and triceps. Sandhagen is an extremely diverse striker that uses not only his hands well, but also his elbows, knees, and feet. Sanhagen’s constant stance switching, endless movement on the feet, and ability to land from varying angles should allow him to make things difficult for Nurmagomedov here. While I do believe Nurmagomedov has what it takes to be a future champion, this feels like a bit much in terms of a step up in level of competition. A low confidence play, but I see value in the underdog. Cory Sandhagen by Decision
-Nick Marro
Twitter: @NickMarroDFS
-Anthony Marro
Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_
Photo: UFC.com