UFC Fight Night St. Louis Analysis

UFC Fight Night St. Louis Analysis

UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs Nascimento – 5.11.2024 – Fight Predictions and Analysis

   Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC St. Louis: Lewis vs Nascimento. This looks like an exceptional night of fights in front of a great crowd at the Enterprise Center. Our analysis includes a pick for every bout from Dynes Sports contributors Anthony Marro and Nicholas Marro.

   As coverage continues, we will keep our records up to date below. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick though as records will not reflect confidence. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few.

Current Record

  • Anthony: 118-68-0 (Last Year 307-199-6, 61%)
  • Nick: 117-69-0 (Last Year 324-182-6, 64%)

*Fight odds were last updated from Bet99 on 5-10-2024 at 10pm EST

Preliminary Card- Starts 4:00pm EST

Veronica Hardy -140 vs JJ Aldrich +115

  • Anthony: The card opens today with women’s flyweights Veronica Hardy and JJ Aldrich. Since returning from a three year hiatus, Hardy has looked great and put together consecutive wins in 2023. Her striking has improved dramatically from her first stint in the UFC. Aldrich is always going to be a tough out but I think Hardy has the tools to control her in this matchup. Hardy averages more than one takedown landed per fight and she has a decisive advantage grappling here against Aldrich. She may be able to hang with Aldrich standing but I would rather not see her try to engage there. Hardy defends 46% of opponent strikes while Aldrich’s defense is at 60%. The latter half of this bout could sway toward Aldrich as she looks to grit out this victory. I prefer Hardy here as a short betting favorite. Veronica Hardy by Decision
  • Nick: Veronica Hardy is fairly well-rounded, but she is most credentialed in taekwondo where she carries a blackbelt. She’s a decent grappler offensively, but she seems to get caught at times if she finds herself on bottom of her opponents. She’s coming off back-to-back wins for the first time since 2016, likely as she’s been refocused in her new marriage. Hardy is the wife of Dan Hardy, one of the sharper minds in the sport. Constantly training under Hardy has certainly boosted her skills, mentality, and general fight IQ. Her striking and general gameplanning have been shown as strengths in each of her most recent wins. Aldrich is 13-6 professionally, coming off back-to-back wins over Na Liang and Montana De La Rosa. She’s big for the division, but it seems she has past her athletic prime. She can be dangerous on the feet, but she’s hittable in exchanges. She can be heavy on top when she manages to ground her opponents, but her entries for takedowns leave a lot to be desired. Aldrich is going to have a considerable size and strength advantage in this match-up, but I do see Hardy as the rightful favorite. I expect her speed will be the difference here as she stays a step ahead in a narrow decision win. Veronica Hardy by Decision

Jake Hadley -130 vs Charles Johnson +110

  • Anthony: Next is a fight at flyweight between Jake Hadley and Charles Johnson. This should be an exciting matchup with high pace striking and grappling scrambles. Both Hadley and Johnson have shown deficiencies in terms of their takedown defense. Hadley is a very talented offensive grappler when it comes to his jiu jitsu and submissions. Hadley does however struggle securing takedowns and finishing his single leg attempts. Johnson may get the better of him here with more strikes landing and better boxing skills. Hadley can hang with him on the feet but I would rather see him look to get his man grounded. I do not plan to bet on this fight but Hadley is going to be my official pick. He is a better play now at -130 odds compared to -170 listed earlier this week. I expect this to be a close decision. Jake Hadley by Decision
  • Nick: Jake Hadley is 2-3 in the UFC, but many feel he still has a high ceiling as a prospect. Hadley had a lot of success on the regional scene, most prominently in Cage Warriors where he captured the flyweight title. He’s a talented grappler with dangerous BJJ but in spite of a recent KO win over Malcolm Gordon, his striking seems to be a work in progress. Hadley’s takedown defense seems flawed as well, but he has solid enough BJJ to work himself into favorable positions against most opponents. Charles Johnson is a former LFA flyweight champion, but he’s been inconsistent since he was promoted to the UFC. He’s a technically skilled boxer, but his defensive wrestling and grappling has proven to be a massive hole in his overall game. He is 3-4 in the UFC, coming off a job saving performance scoring an upset via decision over Azat Maksum. Jake Hadley is the better technical grappler in this match-up, the more athletic fighter and the more dangerous finisher overall. That being said, Johnson has superior cardio and he’s going to be the better technical striker in the pocket. This is a low confidence play, but I’ll take a shot on Johnson to outwork Hadley as the underdog. Charles Johnson by Decision

Trey Waters -165 vs Billy Goff +135

  • Anthony: This is a matchup at welterweight with Billy Goff set to face Trey Waters. These are two exciting prospects in the division that won in their promotional debuts. Goff is an extremely aggressive fighter looking to close the distance and engage with opponents straight away. He is a very skilled offensive striker but leaves himself susceptible to a lot of shots that get returned. Goff’s best asset is his combination striking and high output. However, Goff is not accustomed to fighting much longer than one round or two. Waters will be able to take over and win this fight if he can survive Goff’s early storm. Waters has the better chin than Goff and more of a natural gift striking. He will catch Goff with counters here often, making it a tougher bout for Goff to win. An upset would not surprise me given Goff’s fast hands and great low kicks but my pick in this matchup will be Waters. He is the rightful favorite in a fight likely to be contested primarily on the feet. Trey Waters by Round Two KO
  • Nick: Trey Waters is 8-1 professionally, with three wins coming via KO and three coming via submission. He’s a lengthy striker who can be deceptively dangerous in exchanges. He works well behind his jab and puts out a lot of volume. He’s coming off an impressive win in his UFC debut via decision over Josh Quinlan. At 29 years old he continues to make major improvements everytime we see him fight. Billy Goff is known for his excellent cardio and durability. He has been caught in exchanges before, but he has shown excellent recoverability and a desire to continue fighting even in the most compromising of positions. He has surprising power for his frame and he’s decent at striking in the pocket. This is a low level match-up which makes it a tough fight to call, but I prefer Waters here. He’s going to be the much taller fighter in this match-up and I expect he’ll have success behind his jab. Trey Waters by Decision

Tabatha Ricci -140 vs Tecia Pennington +115

  • Anthony: Next is a fight at women’s strawweight between Tecia Pennington and Tabatha Ricci. Formerly Tecia Torres, we see Pennington return to action here after a two year hiatus. She has gotten back to form this camp after giving birth to a child with bantamweight champion Raquel Pennington. Ricci is coming off a loss in her last appearance but I give her a slight edge over Pennington. Ricci is going to be a much faster fighter. Ricci has also been more active lately and tends to land with a rate of output that matches that of Pennington. I also expect Ricci to find success here landing takedowns in this matchup. Ricci has averaged a takedown landed in each round since joining the UFC. She will certainly win at least one round here, by virtue of out-grappling Pennington. This is a close fight but I find it hard to imagine Pennington winning by volume alone. She has shared the cage with much tougher girls than Ricci but there is no denying Tecia is now on the back nine of her career. Tabatha Ricci by Decision
  • Nick: When fighting on the feet, both of these women are high volume strikers. They both like to throw in the clinch, they’re both durable and they’re both capable of carrying a quality pace for fifteen minutes. Tabatha Ricci has solid cardio and can fight at a very fast pace. She’s well-rounded, but her BJJ ability is her most refined skill. Her wrestling and striking continue to show considerable improvement in each of her fights. As a result of her recent success, it seems the UFC is starting to put their marketing machine behind her. She has won four of her last five fights, most recently falling in a narrow decision to Lupita Godinez. When this fight is standing, Pennington is going to have a considerable advantage. She is excellent in the clinch, and she lands nearly five significant strikes per minute. She has been out of action since April of 2022, following the birth of her daughter in June of 2023. Torres has fought an elite level of opponent and it’s also beneficial that she’s the partner of bantamweight champion, Raquel Pennington. She’s the more well rounded fighter in this matchup in spite of her time away from the sport. Tecia Pennington by Decision

Esteban Ribovics -165 vs Terrance McKinney +135

  • Anthony: This will be an exciting lightweight scrap between Terrance McKinney and Esteban Ribovics. McKinney is the underdog in this matchup despite winning both of his previous fights. He fights with an extremely aggressive style, always in search of the first round finish. While powerful strikes from McKinney could end up stopping Ribovics I think it will be his grappling that secures a win today. McKinney was a former college wrestling star. Through two octagon appearances, Ribovics has been taken down 14 times on 35 attempts. Ribovics is capable of working his way back to the feet but clearly the best strategy to beat him comes by mixing in offensive grappling. McKinney’s wrestling and explosive takedowns could secure him a good early position on Ribovics, ultimately deciding this fight. Ribovics should end up picking apart McKinney if this does get to the latter half of round two. Ribovics is the much more technically skilled striker and more defensively responsible when compared to McKinney. I think T-Wrecks is the more complete athlete and a better fighter on the ground. Terrance McKinney by Round One Submission
  • Nick: Esteban Ribovics is 12-1 professionally, with all but one of those wins coming via finish. He’s fairly well-rounded with surprising power for his frame. He has dangerous BJJ and a decent wrestling base, but it seems he’s most content to stand and trade on the feet. He’s a rising prospect at 28 years old, but it is notable he’s been out of action since July of 2023. He outworked Kamuela Kirk to secure a decision win his last time out, which was great to see as there were questions surrounding his cardio going into that fight. Terrance McKinney is known as a knockout artist, but he has underrated wrestling ability as well. He is 15-6 professionally and all of those wins have come inside the distance. He is 4-3 in the UFC, most recently coming off a first round KO of Brendon Marotte. In most of McKinney’s fights he pushes a ridiculous pace. He overwhelms most of his opponents early, but if he can’t find a quick finish he’s usually dominated late as his cardio/gas tank fails. McKinney has a great chance to end this one early. He has massive power on the feet and he’s the better grappler in this match-up. That being said, I expect Ribovics can survive early here and then take over as McKineey starts to fade. This is a volatile fight, but I prefer the favorite. Esteban Ribovics by Round Two KO

Viacheslav Borshchev -140 vs Chase Hooper +115

  • Anthony: The featured prelim should be a fun battle at lightweight between Chase Hooper and Viacheslav Borshchev. This is a battle between striker and grappler in one of the purest forms. While Hooper is continuing to evolve as a fighter he cannot compete with Borshchev on the feet. Borshchev is a world class kickboxer with some of the best striking in the division. He is going to piece up Hooper in any striking exchanges that we see. Hooper uses his kicks well but his striking is largely a means to dragging fights to the mat. Hooper may not be a plus athlete or the best offensive wrestler but as long as he doesn’t get knocked out on the feet he should be able to win this fight. Hooper will showcase his jiu jitsu here if successful, getting Borschev down to the mat at some point. The Russian has just 36 percent takedown defense. I think we will see Hooper wrap up Borshchev quickly if he does manage to get him floored. I will bet on Hooper here hoping to see him get a submission. No matter who wins I expect this fight to look lopsided in their favor. Chase Hooper by Round One Submission
  • Nick: Viacheslav Borschev is primarily a kickboxer. He throws extremely powerful shots with all of his limbs and he seems to have excellent head movement and footwork. As talented as he is on the feet, his grappling leaves a lot to be desired. He trains at a grappling focused camp via Team Alpha Male where it can be expected his wrestling will continue to improve, but he’s going to have trouble against the stronger grapplers in this division. Chase Hooper has extremely advanced grappling ability for a 24-year old. If he can take this fight to the mat, he’s most likely going to look for Borschev’s back to score a submission. Six of Hooper’s thirteen professional wins have come via submission. In many of Hooper’s past fights he was dramatically outclassed on the feet, but he does seem to be improving in that area. The key to this match-up will be Hooper’s ability to ground and keep Borschev down. If he can, he’ll win via submission. That being said, if this fight takes place on the feet Borschev should absolutely dominate. This match-up is as volatile as it is binary, but I slightly prefer the striker here. Viacheslav Borshchev by Round One KO

Main Card- Starts 7:00pm EST

Robelis Despaigne -260 vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta +200

  • Anthony: The main card opens with heavyweights Robelis Despaigne and Waldo Cortes-Acosta. Despaigne is a massive heavyweight standing 6’7 with an 87-inch reach. The Big Boy won his UFC debut this spring, knocking out Josh Parisian in a mere 18 seconds. It has taken Despaigne a total of just 37 seconds to dispose of his last four opponents. This is an ominous presence in the division that can make serious noise with a few consecutive wins. At heavyweight it only takes one shot to land and Despaigne gets to his target quickly with such long reach. He is confident in his taekwondo and engages opponents with his hands down. Cortes-Acosta will be the toughest test Despaigne has faced in his young career. I am a fan of Cortes-Acosta’s style, landing volume from range and staying light on his feet. His boxing is going to give Despaigne problems if this fight does get extended outside of round one. Despaigne will likely be aggressive again here and look to end tonight’s bout quickly. Cortes-Acosta is going to be a very live dog but I am betting on Despaigne to get the win. It is best to bet the Cuban via knockout as any other outcome seems very unlikely. Robelis Despaigne by Round One KO
  • Nick: Robelis Despaigne is coming off a KO win over Josh Parisian in his UFC debut, with a 5-0 professional record coming into this fight. Each of his wins have come via first round KO. At 35-years old he’s getting a late start to his MMA career, but he’s a black belt in taekwondo and even won a bronze medal in the 2012 London Olympics. Despaigne is extremely athletic for a heavyweight. He has a ridiculous 87” reach, he throws massive strikes from intelligent angles and he generally does a good job frustrating his opponents behind his range. Waldo Cortes-Acosta is 11-1 professionally, coming off a solid decision win over Andrei Arlovski. Cortes-Acosta is 4-1 in the UFC, and continues to show improvements in all facets of his game. He’s athletic for a heavyweight and he has shown decent cardio and durability, but he often sacrifices defense as a means to close distance on his opponents. This is a low level match-up and the line does feel wide given the questions surrounding Despaigne’s cardio and durability. Still, I see him as the rightful favorite against another primary striker. Robelis Despaigne by Round One KO

Sean Woodson -220 vs Alex Caceres +180

  • Anthony: Next is a matchup at featherweight between Alex Caceres and Sean Woodson. This fight will be Caceres’ 30th in the promotion, a career defined by competitive bouts and a fan friendly style. He fights out of a karate stance and often looks to prod at opponents using his long range weapons. Woodson presents a very tough stylistic matchup given his own massive reach. We will likely see Woodson thrive here with his boxing, connecting with a high rate of accuracy on Caceres. While Caceres does have the better kicking attacks than Woodson I imagine he struggles to match his output here standing. Caceres will need to find a few takedowns here to wear on Woodson’s cardio and challenge his submission defense. I expect Woodson to clear Caceres easily and keep this fight upright for a full three rounds. He is much faster than Caceres is at this stage in his career. It is also a favorable draw for Woodson fighting in his home of Saint Louis. Sean Woodson by Decision
  • Nick: Sean Woodson is an extremely talented kickboxer as a former Golden Gloves champion. He continues to show improvements in other facets of his game, but he’s still mostly one dimensional. He has a 79-inch reach which is ridiculous for this division, and most of the time he uses it to pick his opponents apart at a distance. He is coming off an impressive win over Charles Jourdain, and he’s on the verge of being ranked at 145 as he sits at 11-1-1 professionally. Alex Caceres is a highly technical striker that does an excellent job managing distance. He doesn’t carry much power, but he does a good job landing from unconventional angles. Caceres pushes a serious pace and generally does a good job keeping his opponents on their heels. His grappling continues to improve, and he’s a threat to finish via submission if he can find his opponents’ back. Woodson is going to be the better technical striker in the pocket in this match-up, but Caceres has the instincts to keep things close. I don’t like the price, but I do expect Woodson to edge this one out on volume in front of his home crowd. Sean Woodson by Decision

Mateusz Rebecki -550 vs Carlos Diego Ferreira +400

  • Anthony: This should be a fun fight at lightweight between Mateusz Rebecki and Carlos Diego Ferreira. The last time we saw Ferreira compete was in May of 2023 when he earned Performance of the Night after knocking out Michael Johnson. Ferreira has lost a small step now at 39 but he continues to be a legitimate staple of this division’s upper half. Ferreira is always dangerous throwing powerful overhands with his head tucked. Rebecki should be wary of engaging in the pocket with Ferreira when grappling presents a path with much less resistance. Ferreira is easy to takedown but he scrambles well and often threatens opponents with his own submission attempts. Rebecki seems like the stronger and faster athlete but I do not feel confident taking him here. Ferreira can make fights very physically taxing and Rebecki will need to be at his best to keep his man under control. Mateusz Rebecki by Decision
  • Nick: Mateusz Rebecki is 10-1 professionally, and the former FEN Lightweight Champion. He is coming off three straight wins under the UFC banner, including a dominant showing against Roosevelt Roberts when he most recently fought in November of 2023. Rebecki is a gifted grappler with solid striking ability and a seemingly very high Fight IQ. He makes effective decisions in the heat of battle, he does a good job capitalizing on the weaknesses of his opponents and he’s very strong for the division. Diego Ferreira is one of the more decorated BJJ black belts in the UFC. He’s more than competent on the feet, but his offensive grappling ability is definitely his greatest strength. Seven of his eighteen professional victories have come by way of submission. He’s most recently coming off an impressive KO win over Michael Johnson, but he’s been out of action since that fight back in May of 2023. The line feels wide here, but Rebecki is the rightful favorite. Ferreira is skilled enough to be competitive early here, but at his advanced age I expect Rebecki to overpower him no matter where this one goes. Mateusz Rebecki by Round Two KO

Carlos Ulberg -270 vs Alonzo Menifield +210

  • Anthony: The featured bout comes at light heavyweight with Carlos Ulberg set to take on Alonzo Menifield. I have been very high on Ulberg and he has thus far delivered, earning victories in his past five UFC fights. His kickboxing is at an elite level and facing Menifield I expect Ulberg to be a much more technically sound fighter. He is very accurate and not afraid to unload a high volume of strikes. Menifield has been on a tidy streak of his own, last losing in 2021 when facing William Knight. Normally Menifield can excel in fights by winning the moments between exchanges, clinching with opponents and winning minutes along the fence. It will be crucial for Menifield to win the clinch battle in this fight. At range Ulberg will be the more effective fighter and landing strikes at a high rate of accuracy. I think his left hook will be key in getting another knockout win today. Menifield will feel Ulberg’s power very early. Carlos Ulberg by Round One KO
  • Nick: Carlos Ulberg does a good job mixing in feints to trap his opponents. He’s a decorated kickboxer with knockout power in all of his limbs, but he sometimes leaves himself open to take damage in exchanges. He trains with City Kickboxing along with former middleweight champion, Israel Adesanya under Head Coach Eugene Bareman. He’s coming off five consecutive wins under the UFC banner, with each of the last four coming via KO. Alonzo Menifield has a massive frame for the division and thirteen of his fifteen professional wins have come via finish within two rounds. He has not seen much in terms of quality competition, but he’s shown tremendous power and you can see he’s improving in pretty much every other aspect of his game. Menifield recently left one of the best gyms in the game in Fortis MMA. He’s coming off a career-best win over Dustin Jacoby via narrow decision. The line feels too wide here as Menifield will have a grappling and experience advantage here. That being said, Ulberg has a solid 75 percent takedown defense in the UFC and he’s the much quicker and more dangerous striker on the feet. I expect he can keep this one standing, where he should manage to stay a step ahead. Carlos Ulberg by Decision

Joaquin Buckley -140 vs Nursulton Ruziboev +115

  • Anthony: The co-main event should be a great welterweight fight between Joaquin Buckley and Nursulton Ruziboev. This is an interesting booking coming on less than a full month notice. Buckley was eager to compete on this card in Saint Louis but now he draws into a red hot contender that has won ten consecutive fights. I was shocked to see this matchup made at 170 pounds but both men seemed to make the mark without issue. Ruziboev’s eight losses all came at welterweight but he is rounding into his best form now in his 45th professional fight. Ruziboev has the advantage of size over Buckley and skills to outwork Buckley if he elects to grapple. I think while Buckley poses a threat to Ruziboev standing, he will be less effective here facing a rangier foe. Buckley will struggle to land high kicks and shots from range that normally open his combinations. Ruziboev will be more comfortable here early and hopefully build on a lead. I think this fight sways into Buckley’s favor the later that it goes. Ruziboev is more reliant on a finish than Buckley who has proven capable of taking a judge’s decision. At these odds the better side may be Buckley, but I will take my chances on Ruziboev. Nursulton Ruziboev by Round Two Submission
  • Nick: In spite of his recent inconsistencies, it seems the UFC is still behind the marketing and promotion of Joaquin Buckley. He’s far from a developed talent, but his knockout ability makes him an easy sell. His spinning wheel-kick KO of Impa Kasanganay was the knockout of the year in 2020. He’s still developing the majority of his skills, but at just 29-years old he should continue to improve. Buckley has tremendous power and he can truly end a fight in any moment. That being said, he seems overly hesitant at times, he is fairly predictable as a striker as he telegraphs most of his shots. Buckley is coming off a career best win over an extremely tough out in Vicente Luque. It seems he’s entering his athletic prime and he’s finally fighting in the proper weight class at 170 lbs. Nursulton Ruziboev is 36-8-2 professionally and only 30-years old. He has a long frame for the division and he’s a dangerous striker offensively. He’s primarily a grappler with twenty professional wins coming via submission, but he’s coming off back-to-back KO wins under the UFC banner. Ruziboev has looked outstanding, but he’s moving down a weight class here for the first time in the UFC and, like Buckley, he’s taking this fight on relatively short notice. This is another low confidence play, but I have to side with Buckley. As good as Ruziboev has looked, he’s yet to face anyone near Buckley’s level. Joaquin Buckley by Round Two KO

Derrick Lewis -165 vs Rodrigo Nascimento +135

  • Anthony: The main event comes at heavyweight between Derrick Lewis and Rodrigo Nascimento. This is a very volatile matchup and not one of the card’s best betting spots. Lewis is favored in this fight despite winning in just one of his previous five appearances. Generally Lewis fairs well against lower class opponents but Nascimento has the tools to give him problems. Nascimento is a potent threat grappling and I expect him to at least attempt takedowns on Lewis here. Nascimento can use his hands to work into the pocket and engage Lewis in the clinch. Lewis should not hesitate throwing with Nascimento given a decisive power advantage he has. He is the promotion’s all-time leading KO artist with fourteen wins by knockout. I won’t bet him as the favorite but I do expect Lewis to win this fight tonight. His hands will be too much for Ze Colmeia. Derrick Lewis by Round One KO
  • Nick: Rodrigo Nascimento enters this match-up with six of his eleven wins coming via submission. He’s a decorated BJJ Black Belt, who in most of his fights tries to drag things to the mat as early as possible. He’s on a three-fight win streak, and at 30-years old he’s actually on the younger side for the division. Derrick Lewis doesn’t throw much volume, but he is an extremely skilled counter-striker who has shown, on several occasions, that he has enough power to end any fight with a single punch. He’s a true knockout artist with twenty-two of his twenty-seven professional wins coming via KO. As is always the case with heavyweights, this is a very volatile match-up. Lewis is the better striker with the more potent power, but Nascimento will be live for an upset if he can get his grappling going and extend this fight. I do see Lewis as the rightful favorite, I expect he can find a KO here before he starts to fade. Derrick Lewis by Round One KO

-Nick Marro

Twitter: @NickMarroDFS

-Anthony Marro

Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_

Photo: UFC.com