UFC Vegas 89: Ribas vs Namajunas – 3.23.2024 – Fight Predictions and Analysis
Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC Vegas 89: Ribas vs Namajunas. Tonight we have action live from The Apex in Las Vegas. Our analysis includes a pick for every bout from Dynes Sports contributors Anthony Marro and Nicholas Marro.
As coverage continues, we will keep our records up to date below. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick though as records will not reflect confidence. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few.
Current Record
- Anthony: 72-37-0 (Last Year 307-199-6, 61%)
- Nick: 67-42-0 (Last Year 324-182-6, 64%)
*Fight odds were last updated from Bet99 on 3-22-2024 at 10pm EST
Preliminary Card- Starts 7:00pm EST
Mick Parkin -150 vs Mohammed Usman +125
- Anthony: Action begins today with heavyweights Mick Parkin and Mohammed Usman. While it is great that we have live fights almost every weekend the quality is diminished, with terrible bookings like this. These are two lackluster prospects that fight with frustrating urgency. Neither man is particularly skilled with Parkin being just slightly further developed, grappling and working inside of the clinch. Parkin looked to be the bigger man at weigh-ins and did come in heavier than Usman. I think he is favored in a grappling heavy fight. Usman is an athletic specimen with very serious power. However, I feel Usman’s rudimentary striking is rather easy to defend against. Parkin should be able to stay out of trouble early and test Usman’s reaction when forced to defend on the mat. This is not a fight that I will be betting on. Mick Parkin by Decision
- Nick: This is a low level heavyweight match-up, but both of these guys are more athletic than they look. Parkin is a powerful striker with decent BJJ, but it’s tough to gauge his level as he really hasn’t been tested extensively against top level competition. He’s coming off back-to-back wins under the UFC banner, but each of those fights were relatively uneventful. He is undefeated at 9-0, but he’s sometimes overly tentative. His low volume style could prove troublesome for him as his career continues as a heavyweight. Mohammed Usman is the brother of former welterweight champion Kamaru Usman. He’s nowhere near as talented as his brother, but he is athletically gifted with true KO power on the feet.He’s a competent wrestler, but he certainly prefers to stand and trade as three of his six most recent wins have come via KO. This is a low level match-up and thus a low confidence play. I’ll side with Parkin as the favorite as the more well-rounded of the two. Mick Parkin by Decision
Andre Lima -160 vs Igor Severino +135
- Anthony: Next is a fight at flyweight between undefeated prospects Igor Severino and Andre Lima. Both men make their debut here today after successful showings last year on Dana White’s Contender Series. Severino really showed off in that bout, knocking out Jhonata Silva. He is just 20-years-old but very skilled when striking and good at rolling with punches. Severio trains with the team at Chute Boxe João Emilio and uses a high pressure approach to win fights. He is aggressive getting into the pocket and engaging often. I think he can knock down Lima here if he can find his way to work safely inside. Lima is more technically sound and better at traditional kickboxing range. He is going to land meaningful strikes throughout this fight, attacking Severino high and low. It really is a compelling matchup and I would line it much closer to pick’em than it is. Severino is a live underdog here whether he finds a win by knockout or outworking Lima on his way to a bloody decision win. Igor Severino by Decision
- Nick: This match-up features two debuting and undefeated fighters from Brazil at flyweight. Andre Lima enters this match-up at just 20-years old. He is 7-0 professionally, with five of his seven wins coming via KO. Lima is a dangerous offensive striker with surprising power for his frame. He does an excellent job mixing elbows into his combinations. He’s aggressive and throws a lot of volume in exchanges, and he’s shown he is more than willing to take shots to throw them. Igor Severino is 25-years old, and he enters this match-up with a 8-0 professional record. All of his wins have come via finish; four by submission and four via KO. He secured his roster spot with an impressive KO win over Jhonata Silva in the Contender Series. Severino has dangerous BJJ when his fights hit the mat. He has an excellent choke series, and he’s extremely advanced for his age. Lima does a good job checking kicks. He’s defensively sound for his age and generally remains calm in exchanges despite how aggressive he can be offensively. Lima has a power advantage here, but Sevrino throws more volume. Lima could secure takedowns if he attempted them, but Severino is a dangerous BJJ player off of his back. This is another volatile match-up between two unproven prospects. I slightly prefer Lima here as Severino doesn’t quite seem to be fully developed yet at just 20-years old. Andre Lima by Decision
Darya Zheleznyakova -220 vs Montserrat Rendon +180
- Anthony: This is a women’s bantamweight fight between Darya Zheleznyakova and Montserrat Rendon. It is the UFC debut for Zheleznyakova who enters 8-1 as a professional. The Russian has very good standup skills, boasting advantages over Rendon in terms of her kickboxing. She has fought several quality opponents and demonstrated her abilities striking in each of those fights. Rendon pulled off the upset in her last appearance thanks to three successful takedown attempts. It seems likely Rendon will defer to that strategy yet again against a younger and much more dangerous striker. It seems like this fight is lined appropriately with Zheleznyakova favored, although it is worth noting these odds have closed. It’s hard to expect Rendon to perform as well in this fight as she has the previous few. Darya Zheleznyakova by Decision
- Nick: Darya Zheleznyakova will be making her UFC debut in this match-up, having been out of action since April of 2023. She is 28 years-old and 8-1 professionally, most recently fighting for a well-regarded French promotion via Ares FC. Five of Zheleznyakova’s wins have come via KO. She’s a powerful striker with a decent understanding of footwork. She does her best work striking at distance and she’s capable of working her way back to her feet if she’s grounded. Monsterrat Rendon is coming off a win in her UFC debut over Timares Vidal.She has a 6-0 professional record at 35-years-old. She’s getting a late start to her career, but she’s been impressive on the regional scene. Rendon was recently awarded her brown belt in BJJ, but it’s rare we see her lean on that part of her game. She’s an aggressive striker who is more than willing to take a shot to land one. This is a low level match-up which makes it a tough fight to call ,but Zheleznyakova is the rightful favorite. She should considerably outclass her opponent in exchanges on the feet here. She has a decent sprawl which should allow her to keep this fight standing, and I expect she’ll have a speed advantage over Rendon no matter where this fight goes. Darya Zheleznyakova by Decision
Steven Nguyen -160 vs Jarno Errens +135
- Anthony: This is a fight at featherweight between Jarno Errens and Steven Nguyen. Errens is winless in the UFC with two appearances in the rearview. He is a solid fighter with heavy hands but not one to throw consistent volume. That will be a big problem for Errens if he does not pick up the pace in this fight against Nguyen. Not only did Nguyen score the knockout in his last fight but he also connected on more than 100 significant strikes. Nguyen is consistent with his output and seems like the much better fundamental striker when compared here to Errens. Neither fighter has the best killer instinct but Nguyen is much faster to his targets and more deliberate in his attacks. Errens does not seem to have the cardio or striking prowess to keep pace here for fifteen minutes. If he cannot last to a decision I expect Errens to get stopped in this bout. This line has closed drastically and at -160 I will bet on Steven Nguyen. Steven Nguyen by Decision
- Nick: Steven Nguyen will be making his UFC debut in this spot, coming off a Contender Series win via KO of AJ Cunningham. He is 9-0 professionally, with four of those wins coming via KO and three coming via submission. Nguyen is a lengthy striker who does a decent job striking behind his jab. He can generate power off his back foot, and his cardio and durability have been strengths to this point in his career. Jarno Errens seems relatively well-rounded when you watch him on film, but he really hasn’t been tested extensively against top level competition. He has a decent Judo base, but his defensive grappling ability seems to leave a lot to be desired. He has serious power for a featherweight, but he telegraphs many of his bigger shots which often leaves himself open to be countered. Errens is coming off back-to-back losses for the first time in his career. The line feels too wide here as Nguyen is still somewhat untested, but he should have a speed advantage here and it seems he’ll be able to mostly pick Errens apart at range. Nguyen fights out of a solid camp via Fortis MMA, and I expect he’ll be well prepared for his debut. Steven Nguyen by Decision
Miles Johns -140 vs Cody Gibson +115
- Anthony: This is a fight at bantamweight between Cody Gibson and Miles Johns. Since his debut in 2020, I have been betting on Johns and generally end up pleased with his performances. He is a handful at this weight class thanks to his strong wrestling base and consistent output. I like how active Johns is and a matchup with Gibson could see him really excel. Gibson is a solid wrestler but less effective in scoring takedowns with his longer frame. Johns will be in more trouble fighting Gibson at range than when they are in close. Johns should be able to outmuscle Gibson and win a large portion of these grappling exchanges. He will keep the feet in this fight for as long as he decides to. Gibson is just 1-4 in the UFC and while many may suggest taking him at plus money I do not think he has a clear path to winning in this fight. Miles Johns by Decision
- Nick: Miles Johns is primarily a grappler. He’s shown high level wrestling ability with creative entries for takedowns and his striking seems to improve everytime we see him in the cage. Johns often leaves himself open to counterpunches and he doesn’t always finish his combinations offensively. Still, he’s extremely athletic and his well-rounded game makes him a high upside fighter as he continues to improve. Cody Gibson is 19-9 professionally, coming off a hard fought decision loss to Brad Katona. He’s well-rounded, with seven of his professional wins coming via KO and four coming via submission. He’s getting up there in age, but he’s extremely durable with a very high fight IQ. Gibson is going to have a considerable reach advantage here, but Johns will be the more powerful striker of the two.Gibson will land more volume on the feet, but Johns can pull away if he’s landing the more damaging shots. This should be a fun match-up for however long it lasts. I’ll take a shot on Gibson as the underdog hoping he can weather an early storm from Johns and take over late. Cody Gibson by Decision
Ricardo Ramos -165 vs Julian Erosa +140
- Anthony: This will be a fun featherweight scrap between Julian Erosa and Ricardo Ramos. I think Ramos is rightfully favored here in what will be a back and forth affair on the feet. Erosa is a high pressure fighter that will move forward a lot in this matchup, throwing a lot of punches without much intent. Ramos is the far more skilled striker here and more proficient landing quality combinations. His strikes land with more impact than Erosa and that is a key to a lot of Ramos’ success. I also consider Ramos the smarter fighter, more effectively executing his game plan depending on the fight. He may score some easy takedowns here today with Erosa marching forward. Erosa could steal this fight late if he is still there but I think Ramos ends up getting the better of him early. It is difficult backing Erosa coming off consecutive round one losses. Ricardo Ramos by Round Two KO
- Nick: Ramos is a dynamic striker who throws a wide-range of attacks. He has underrated power, but he doesn’t throw extended combinations and he has trouble putting volume on opponents. As a result, we often see him fall behind on the scorecards even when he’s causing a lot of damage. He throws wild kicks, which are mostly effective, but they sometimes leave him vulnerable to dangerous countershots. He’s a decent grappler, but mostly prefers to stand and strike at range. Julian Erosa is well rounded, with twelve professional wins by submission as well as eleven by knockout. His greatest quality as a fighter may be his willingness to eat shots to throw them. He’s very game and gritty, but his durability has been in question at times as eight of his eleven professional losses have come via KO. This should be a competitive and a violent match-up, and a volatile one at that. This is a low confidence play, but I do see Ramos as the rightful favorite. Erosa is dangerous, but his durability will likely spell his downfall here against a dynamic striker in Ramos. Ricardo Ramos by Round Two KO
Trey Ogden -150 vs Kurt Holobaugh +125
- Anthony: The featured prelim is a good fight at lightweight between Trey Ogden and Kurt Holobaugh. Holobaugh earned the title of The Ultimate Fighter in his last appearance at UFC 292. I think this should be a great back and forth between two gritty and high-action fighters. Holobaugh will look to set an early pace in this fight with his striking offense. He is the more technical striker than Ogden with much better boxing and attacks from range. Holobaugh fights orthodox but throws a very powerful left hand. Ogden will not want to stand and exchange for prolonged periods of this fight. Ogden will want to implement his wrestling offense to control Holobaugh and keep himself out of harm’s way. While I do think Ogden can find success here grappling, it is a scary proposition to roll on the mat with a guy like Holobaugh who has exceptional jiu jitsu. There is some value on Holobaugh here at plus money. He beat Austin Hubbard in his last fight as the +150 underdog. Kurt Holobaugh by Decision
- Nick: Kurt Holobaugh is primarily a striker. He has a solid chin and moves well at range, but he is most comfortable fighting in the pocket. He strings together effective combinations, he uses all of his limbs well, and seven of his twenty professional wins have come via KO. He’s also competent on the mat, especially offensively, with ten of his twenty professional wins coming via submission. He most recently secured a submission win over Austin Hubbard to win a roster spot as The Ultimate FIghter tournament champion. At 34-years old it seems unlikely Trey Ogden will have an extensive UFC career, but he’s well rounded and a good test for the prospects in a loaded 155 lb division. Ogden is decent on the feet, but he absorbs more strikes than he lands in exchanges. He’s fairly durable as he’s never been KO’d professionally, but most of his success has come on the mat as he fights mostly to maintain position. Ogden will have a strength advantage here, but if he takes Holobaugh he’ll be in danger of being submitted. I like the value of the underdog. Kurt Holobaugh by Round Three Submission
Main Card- Starts 10:00pm EST
Fernando Padilla -165 vs Luis Pajuelo +140
- Anthony: Opening the main card is a featherweight matchup between Luis Pajuelo and Fernando Padilla. This matchup will be telling for Padilla who is thus far 1-1 since joining the UFC. He is a tricky fighter to deal with given his height and 76” reach. It seems tough to close the distance on Padilla thanks to his very technical hands. He can fight moving backwards and effectively land counters on opponents that do crash in. Pajuelo is aggressive and not afraid to let his hands go. He generally pushes a fast pace in his fights but has confidence in his cardio enough to go a hard fifteen minutes. Pajuelo can find success not only boxing with Padilla here. The Peruvian is also strong in the clinch and more effective than Padilla when it comes to offensive grappling. I won’t be betting Padilla at this number and instead prefer the underdog. Padilla was too hesitant for my liking in his last octagon appearance. He will struggle in this matchup if he is pressured early and stuck fighting off the back foot. Luis Pajuelo by Round Two KO
- Nick: Fernando Padillia is a decent striker, but he telegraphs most of his strikes and he doesn’t tend to throw or land extended combinations. He has decent power, but he seemingly has trouble closing defense safely. He did show massive improvements in his KO win over Julian Erosa, but he was a disappointment last time out where he fell as a considerable favorite to Kyle Nelson. Luis Pajuelo will be making his UFC debut here, coming off a Contender Series via KO of Robbie Ring. He is 8-1 professionally, with seven of those wins coming via KO. Four of his last five wins have come via KO and he’s spent most of his career fighting for Fusion Fighting Championship. He has a kill-or-be-killed style, and he tends to overwhelm his opponents if they can’t match his pressure or pace. This is a volatile match-up as both of these guys like to stand and swing. I slightly prefer Padilla here hoping he shows major improvements coming off a loss. Fernando Padilla by Decision
Billy Quarantillo -110 vs Youssef Zalal -110
- Anthony: This is a featherweight matchup between Billy Quarantillo and Youssef Zalal. We saw Zalal cut from the UFC after a skid of 0-3-1 but now he returns here as a short notice replacement for the injured Gabriel Miranda. The past two years have seen Zalal accruing wins in boxing, kickboxing and fighting for Sparta Combat League in Colorado. He is not competing against high-level competition and as a result he is now finding success. While Zalal is a dynamic striker with good skills everywhere, he has yet to produce any real quality wins in MMA. Quarantillo is the more proven commodity in this fight and a safer bet to earn a victory. Quarantillo is very active in the promotion and quick to attack opponents when his fights begin. The high volume of strikes thrown by Quarantillo may overwhelm Zalal here and shut down his offense. He lands on average 7.71 significant strikes per minute. Quarantillo can sometimes fight a bit recklessly but I like his chances in this matchup to convincingly outwork Zalal. Now at pick em odds I will certainly have money on him. Billy Quarantillo by Decision
- Nick: This is one of the more exciting fights on the card, and certainly a contender for Fight of the Night. Quarantillo pushes an outstanding pace. Fourteen of his eighteen professional victories have come via finish, and while he’s been known as a slow starter, he is also known for his knack for finishing fights in the later rounds. He throws a lot of volume in exchanges, he’s proven to be extremely durable, and he’s coming off a solid win over a tough out in Damon Jackson. Youssef Zalal fights out of an excellent camp via Factory X. His coaches usually do a great job setting their fighters up for success, leaning heavily on gameplans that focus on the weaknesses of their respective opponents. Zalal was cut from the UFC back in 2022, but he has since secured three wins via finish fighting for Sparta Combat League and regained his roster spot. Quarantillo has made a career of taking over fights late, and I expect that he can do it again here. Quarantillo is the better striker with much better durability and cardio. His advantages in those areas are likely too much for Zalal to overcome with just his grappling. Billy Quarantillo by Decision
Payton Talbott -150 vs Cameron Saaiman +125
- Anthony: Next up is a matchup at men’s bantamweight between Cameron Saaiman and Payton Talbott. I am very high on the undefeated Talbott who enters as the small favorite in the matchup today. These odds have swayed into Talbott’s favor after this line initially opened at pick em. Talbott is a very talented striker coming from Reno Academy of Combat. He is very fluid in his attacks, moving well in both stances while overwhelming opponents with feints and differing looks. Talbott does very well utilizing his kicks and closing the distance on opponents rather seamlessly. He is faster than Cameron Saaiman and has far superior footwork. Saaiman is a fighter that I do like but this will be a matchup that he will need to win by grappling. Saaiman is tough but not durable or skilled enough to stand and trade with Talbott. He will need to implement some wrestling in this fight to win minutes when he cannot do so on the feet. Talbott should build as this fight goes later and takedowns from Saaiman become sloppier and easy to defend. He is one of my favorite bets this weekend. Payton Talbott by Decision
- Nick: Payton Talbott is a gifted striker with surprising power for his frame. He has excellent cardio and does a good job circling away from the power of his opponents in exchanges. We haven’t seen him tested extensively on the mat, but he is coming off an impressive submission win in his UFC debut over Nick Aguirre. He is 7-0 and 25-years-old, and certainly a prospect worth keeping an eye on. Cameron Saaiman is a highly regarded prospect, with a 3-1 record in the UFC. He’s only 23-years old, but he’s gifted athletically and surprisingly well-rounded for his age. He does a good job moving in and out of his opponents striking range. He wears damage well, has decent power, and it’s expected he’ll continue to show considerable improvement every time we see him fight. He’s an effective wrestler who controls his weight well. It seems he mostly favors grappling for position, but it can be expected as his BJJ develops he’ll become more of a submission threat. These are two talented prospects and this fight could go either way. I slightly prefer Talbott as the more dynamic and aggressive striker of the two. Saaiman could score takedowns here, but I don’t think he can keep Talbott down. Payton Talbott by Decision
Edmen Shahbazyan -200 vs AJ Dobson +160
- Anthony: The featured bout comes at middleweight with AJ Dobson set to face Edmen Shahbazyan. This is yet another key fight in the young career of Shahbazyan who is coming off a loss. The past year has produced some more mature showings from Shahbazyan but he still does struggle when fights are not going his way. Dobson is an interesting draw in this fight given his ability to grapple offensively. On the feet, Shahbazyan is far and away the better technical striker. He will work hard to stay at range in this fight, blasting Dobson with kicks and precise combinations. Dobson is serviceable on the feet but he will not keep up with Shahbazyan if they are kickboxing. Although Shahbazyan has shown some improved takedown defense I will not be betting him here as the sizable favorite. I expect Shahbazyan to get the win but it would not surprise me to see Dobson score takedowns and make this fight boring. On average he lands nearly two successful takedowns each fight. Edmen Shahbazyan by Round Three KO
- Nick: Edmen Shahbazyan is one of the more intriguing up-and-comers at middleweight. He’s only 26, but he’s already shown flashes of elite level striking and a serious ability to finish fights early. While his striking seems to be his greatest strength, Shabazyan also has a Brown Belt in BJJ under Renzo Gracie. He was once considered a future top contender at 185, but he has only won one of his last five fights. Dobson is somewhat of a traditional boxer in that he stands fairly straight up in exchanges. He has true KO power, but he’s fairly predictable in his approach as he telegraphs most of his strikes. He is 1-2 in the UFC, and 7-2 professionally. As good as he is on the feet, I expect he’ll look like a grappler here. That being said, I expect we’ll see an improved version of Shabazyan as he’s been out of action since May of 2023. The line certainly feels wide, but I see Shabazyan as the rightful favorite. He’ll be in trouble if Dobson can ground him here, but I expect he can win this fight standing. Edmen Shahbazyan by Round Two KO
Karl Williams -220 vs Justin Tafa +180
- Anthony: The co-main event is a heavyweight fight between Justin Tafa and Karl Williams. This is a short notice booking of sorts. Junior Tafa stepped in for injured Justin Tafa last month, so now we see that favor repaid with a switch of their opponents. Williams should be unaffected by the swap as his gameplan fight to fight is largely the same. Williams on average lands four takedowns per fight and masterfully controls his opponents on the mat. The wrestler will be eager here to takedown Tafa for what would be the first time in his UFC career. When Williams is able to secure his shots he does a great job staying on top of his opponents and wearing on their gas tank. Tafa is a live underdog in this spot but he quite clearly needs a knockout to pull off the upset. Williams will be the much better fighter if this gets into a round two or three. The wet blanket approach may not be the most fan friendly but Williams should be able to stick to the script and win this bout convincingly. Karl Williams by Decision
- Nick: Karl Williams is 9-1 professionally, coming off back to back wins under the UFC banner. He carries decent power on the feet, but he telegraphs many of his strikes and he certainly seems raw in most of his abilities when you watch him on film. He has found most of his success leaning on a grappling heavy game plan, and he’s one of the better young wrestlers in the division. Justin Tafa had a lot of hype coming into the promotion, but he has been mostly a disappointment so far. He has knockout power, but his cardio is suspect and he hasn’t really shown technical boxing ability on the level of other up-and-comers in this division. He’s likely to have a technical striking advantage in this match-up, but he’ll be considerably outclassed if this fight hits the mat. Given the low-level nature of this match-up, Tafa could be worth a bet as the underdog. Regardless, Williams has a very clear path to victory via his wrestling and off that alone he deserves to be favored. Karl Williams by Decision
Rose Namajunas -175 vs Amanda Ribas +145
- Anthony: The main event is a women’s flyweight bout with Rose Namajunas facing Amanda Ribas. Both women have experience previously fighting at strawweight with Namajunas holding the division title not once but twice. The move up to 125 pounds seems to be good for Rose although she was outsized in her last bout facing Manon Fiorot. Namajunas seems like a better fit for the weight than Ribas in my opinion. Ribas is a phenomenal jiu jitsu practitioner but rudimentary when striking and not very effective when it comes to securing takedowns. Her chances of successfully converting on takedown attempts are low as is, she only makes it harder on herself here at flyweight. Namajunas had a significant striking advantage in this fight that I expect to see on full display. She is going to hit much harder than Ribas and find more moments of success here compared to the Brazilian. Namajunas is very accustomed to fighting five rounds and dispersing her energy for a full twenty five minutes. Ribas is more of a frontrunner who will begin to collapse if this fight does not go her way. I think Ribas is dependent on a quick submission here to earn the upset victory. Namajunas will begin to take over as this fight goes late. Rose Namajunas by Round Three KO
- Nick: Rose Namajunas is extremely quick when throwing combinations, carries surprising power for her frame and does an excellent job baiting her opponents into strikes. She has dangerous BJJ offensively and her wrestling continues to improve. As talented as she is, she’s been building a reputation as an inconsistent fighter. She is coming off back-to-back losses for the first time in her career, Amanda Ribas is a fan-favorite as an aggressive fighter with outstanding offensive grappling ability. She is a black belt in BJJ, with four of her twelve professional victories coming by way of submission. Her striking continues to improve, but she’s very hittable in exchanges and the strength of her chin is questionable at best. The line feels wide here as Ribas is going to be very dangerous if this fight hits the mat. That being said, I’m not confident her wrestling is quality enough to take it there. Another low confidence play given the price, but Namajunas is the rightful favorite. She should be able to pick Ribas apart at range until she eventually finds her chin here. Rose Namajunas by Round Three KO
-Nick Marro
Twitter: @NickMarroDFS
-Anthony Marro
Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_
Photo: UFC.com