Ottawa Senators Prospect Roundup: Part II – Forwards
A few years back, the Ottawa Senators prospect pool was headlined by players like Tim Stutzle, Josh Norris, Drake Batherson, Shane Pinto and more. Since those players have graduated fully to the NHL over the past three years, the depth of the club’s prospect pool has taken a noticeable hit.
But that doesn’t mean that there aren’t serviceable future NHLers still within the team’s ranks. The Senators prospect pool has transformed into a “quantity over quality” collection of assets, giving their minor league coaching staff multiple dart throws to see if they can uncover a hidden gem.
Many of the prospects are still very raw and need a few seasons of polishing in the AHL or abroad before they begin to meet their potential. You got the defense and goaltenders last week; now you get the forwards. To recap, here are the prospect tiers:
Blue Chip Prospects: These are your for-sure, elite prospects that will do significant damage in the future. Think Tim Stutzle or Jake Sanderson
Very good: These will be players that play in the top half of the lineup. Think along the lines of Josh Norris and Drake Batherson back in 2020.
Good: These are players that will have long NHL careers, and will be in the lineup every day. A player I’d put in this category: Shane Pinto
Could be great: This is my wildcard tier, where these players will either be very good NHL players or never truly tap into their potential. High ceiling low floor types.
Decent: These are the players that will be third pair defensemen, fourth line players or 3rd string goalies that have some seasons in the NHL. Examples: Mark Kastelic, Mark Borowiecki, Marcus Hogberg.
Fringe: Fringe players might get some NHL action from year to year, but spend most of their time in the AHL at the top of the lineup. They’re the first call if someone gets hurt, but can’t seem to carve out an everyday role.
Everyone else: players that have aged out of the prospect development stage or are never making the NHL full time.
Everyone else: Vitaly Abramov, Jakov Novak, Viktor Lodin, Luke Loheit
Vitaly Abramov:
While the Sens still retain Abramov’s rights, the days of him making the NHL are probably all but over. The 25-year-old seemed like a future NHL player based off his insane QMJHL production from 2016-2018. He had a cup of coffee a couple of years ago with the Sens, but it was clear he wasn’t factoring into their future plans. In 2021 he signed on with CSKA Moscow in the KHL, where his production hasn’t impressed with 33 points in 98 games.
Jakov Novak:
The 24-year-old was drafted in the 7th round in 2018 as a project. He spent 5 years in the NCAA, and it was clear he didn’t have upside as an NHL player. He signed an ATO with the Allen Americans in the ECHL and fared well in that competition with 12 points in 14 games. Turning 25 in October, his developing days are behind him.
Viktor Lodin:
There were glimpses where Lodin looked like an unexpected NHL player with stints in the SHL and AHL. His 2021-22 season was great as a 22-year-old. 27 points in 44 SHL games and 8 points in 10 AHL games. But this past season, 15 points in 28 games was underwhelming considering his skill has always been his best attribute. He signed back over in the SHL, and they own his right until 2027, but he’s a longshot to come back to North America at this point of his development.
Luke Loheit:
Loheit is entering his final season in the NCAA, and will serve as a leader for the University of Minnesota. Out of anyone in this category, he has the most upside. That’s because he just turned 23 a week ago, and has the strongest two-way game. His work ethic is quite solid as well, but he’s going to have to have a stellar year as a 5th year NCAA player if he wants to receive an NHL contract one day.
Fringe: Oliver Johansson, Cameron O’Neill, Nicholas VanTassell, Tyson Dyck, Owen Beckner
Oliver Johansson:
Johansson is one of those prospects it’s hard to get a sense of. He’s still relatively unknown around the Sens fan base, despite being a 2021 3rd round pick. He was a younger player in that draft, so he remains a project just turning 20 a week ago. But if he’s really going to stick out, his offensive production is going to have to improve at the pro level.
He’s gone pointless in 20 SHL games and registered 9 points in 27 AllSvenskan games. He doesn’t have to sign his ELC until 2024, so there remains time. The winger has skill, but probably fares well as a complimentary winger in an NHL lineup. Similar to Lodin, I wouldn’t be surprised if he signs a contract with the Sens at the end of his AllSvenskan/SHL year.
Cameron O’Neill:
I was super intrigued by this player after the 2022 NHL draft. He destroyed the AAA level that year with 133 points in 62 games. He was drafted with the thought of him having some upside. But when he moved onto the USHL level this year, he didn’t put up close to the point totals that many thought he would. 27 points in 56 games with the Tri-City Storm in his draft +1 year wasn’t ideal, as you’d typically expect double that production. He’s moving onto the University of Massachusetts, which is another mountain to climb. Maybe he develops well there, but at the moment he looks like a career AHL player.
Nicholas VanTassell:
There’s obviously a scenario where VanTassell could become an NHL player one day. But as an overager and a 7th round pick, the odds are stacked up against him. The stats didn’t pop out in his second year at the USHL level with 37 points in 62 games, but the Sens think there’s some untapped potential if he’s developed properly. His offensive game has the ability to reach another level, but his defensive game has been known to have some flaws. Going to the University of Massachusetts will force him to be more responsible with the puck. If he picks up the defensive game quickly, then his offensive game could come back and maybe we’re talking about a steal of a pick. But for now, he looks like a mid-AHL player going forward.
Tyson Dyck:
Dyck started off his year at UMass well as a Freshman with 9 points across his first 14 games. But then his next 14? 0 points. Now he’s transferred to the University of Wisconsin, where he’ll look to resurface and up his point totals. Despite a season of two very different halves, I have still had good expectations for Dyck. He’s always put-up solid totals whichever league he’s played in, and there’s been no real knock on his defensive game.
Playing BCHL in your draft year will do that to you though. He’s an average build at 6 foot as well, so there’s nothing crazy that stands out physically to scouts. If he put up a couple more points this season, I think he’d be in the “decent” tier. But he’s going to have to have a good year at Wisconsin if he wants to look like a player that will play in future NHL games.
Owen Beckner:
Like Dyck, Beckner is also a victim of the BCHL. While his draft year total wasn’t crazy, 50 points in 53 games isn’t bad. He’s going back to his team, the Salmon Arm Silverbacks, for one more season where he’ll look to be one of the top players in the league. The best-case scenario for Beckner is to increase his offensive game, then parlay that confidence into the 2024-25 where he committed to Colorado College. He’s the youngest player in this category, so there’s still time left in his development.
Depth: Angus Crookshank, Cole Reinhardt, Tyler Boucher, Philippe Daoust
Angus Crookshank:
Crookshank will be 24 in October, so the development years are quickly passing by us. But you have to factor in his 2021-22 season, where he didn’t play a single game. Crookshank plays a style that fits perfectly into the Sens bottom six. His playing style emulates Ridly Greig, which can be described as gritty skill.
His 47 points in 71 games was 4th in team scoring this year for Belleville. He plays big for 5 foot 10, and has the drive to be an NHL player one day. He’ll need to clean up a few things defensively, but that improved as the AHL year went on. He could absolutely be a player that pushes for an NHL spot this year, but it will be hard in a season where the Sens forward core looks deep.
Cole Reinhardt:
Speed and hard work can get you NHL jobs, and those are the two traits Reinhardt possesses the most. Yes, his 34 points in 66 AHL games as a 23-year-old isn’t fantastic. But Reinhardt may be one of those players that produces better at the NHL level than some might expect. Speed and playing hard until the whistle can get players like this a few extra points, which will make coaches want to play them more. Reinhardt may not go on to have a super long career, but I could see him being a key depth player on an NHL team one day, whether that’s Ottawa or not.
Tyler Boucher:
All I want is for Tyler to be healthy and play a full season. It’s true that his OHL production is a little concerning. His 31 points in 45 career games isn’t great, especially years after being drafted in 2021. However, I believe he would have been a point per game player if he was fully healthy.
His game is more suited to the professional ranks than that of Major Junior. He was easily the most physical player on the ice every night, and that sometimes led to some questionable calls against him. What would have been a routine hit in the AHL/NHL wound up causing line brawls or at a minimum scrums in the OHL.
Every time I see him play; he demonstrates the tools of a power forward. He’s a good skater and has an NHL ready shot, but will need to get more reps if he wants to be an NHL player. I hope he can play the full season in Belleville and focus on his game there. The single most important thing for Boucher’s development at this point is reps, plain and simple.
Philippe Daoust:
I have Daoust in this group solely because of his natural skill. He won’t be a Stutzle type carrying a line, but a perfect complimentary player in your middle six. Much like Crookshank, a bad injury made him lose valuable development time. He started off the year in the AHL very strong with 7 points in 9 games, many forget that. A full year of top six duty in Belleville will bring him back in the mix and he could push for an NHL job the following season.
Could be great: Egor Sokolov, Stephen Halliday, Roby Jarventie
Egor Sokolov:
This year won’t be a make or break year for Sokolov with regards to his NHL career, but it may be for his time with the Senators. His game doesn’t suit a fourth line role, he needs to touch the puck to feel good. And with the additions of Tarasenko and Kubalik, those are just two more offensive forwards that will have the inside track on Egor.
His game is that of a big, skilled forward. He has great offensive awareness, an elite shot, and passing that’s becoming better every year. His skating has always been his knock, but it’s not his straight-line speed. It’s edges and skating mechanics that make players like Tim Stutzle and Jake Sanderson so good. And that’s where Sokolov is still a step behind. How this year’s training camp plays out could largely dictate Egor’s future in the nation’s capital.
Stephen Halliday:
What an interesting prospect. Halliday is an elite playmaker; he had 32 assists in 40 games with Ohio State in his Freshman NCAA year. Now he was entering the NCAA as a 20 year old rather than an 18-year-old, but those are still impressive totals. Halliday has found ways to put up points at every level with his extremely solid offensive skill set. He’s hard to knock off the puck as a 6-foot 3 center, has a strong shot and elite passing metrics. But there’s one thing he needs to work on if he wants to get over the hump: pace. Because he’s a player that exudes constant offense, he’ll be a top six player in any level he plays in. But if he works on his pace and brings it up to a notch, then he could certainly be a top six center one day. But if he stagnates in this area, then he’ll likely max out as a high end AHL scorer. He should produce even more this year, and potentially sign an ELC with Ottawa at the end of the season.
Roby Jarventie:
Much like in 2020, Jarventie still feels like a boom or bust prospect. But we knew that the Finnish forward might take an extra year or two to develop due to his age and playing style. Despite being a 6-foot-3 winger, he plays a shoot first style of offense. Watch out for him on the powerplay, as 12/16 of his goals were on the man advantage this season. Jarventie’s weaknesses are still the same as they were in 2020, but he’s improved on them since then. What still gives me confidence in him as a prospect? He turns 21 this week. He still has some leeway in terms of development, and I could see him being close to a point per game this year in the AHL. With Vladimir Tarasenko signing a one-year deal for the 2023-24 season, I would expect Jarventie to push for a full-time spot in 2024-25 to replace that goal scoring.
Good: Zack Ostapchuk
Zack Ostapchuk:
Ostapchuk should be an NHL player based off of his playstyle. He’s a physical, defensive winger/center that has a good offensive game that will keep him in an NHL spot everyday. His defensive upside is high, and he will be at least a fourth line player based off of his penalty kill ability alone. But because he’s so coachable, coaches will want to play him higher up in the lineup so there may be some years where he could flirt with some respectable point totals.
Very good: Ridly Greig, Oskar Pettersson
Ridly Greig:
I thought Ridly Greig might take a couple years to get used to pro hockey, but I was pleasantly surprised by his impact early on in the AHL and NHL. Greig is the perfect mix of skill and grit that will move up and down the lineup while playing every forward position. He was called up a little earlier than expected, but with the Josh Norris injury he got a 20-game stint with the big club. Greig notched 9 points in that span, showing some solid production out of the gates.
Like many young players, he came out flying and maybe some question if he was a legit NHL player. But as he kept playing, the consistency was challenging for him. Not to say he wasn’t trying, but he was still trying to figure out how to survive and thrive in the NHL. His 29 points in 39 AHL were impressive as well, especially as a player who turns 21 this week. It’s possible he starts the year in the AHL; but a great performance to start the season may signal that he’ll be a full timer sooner than we thought. This is a player who won’t be a point per game producer, but maybe have a couple seasons in his career where he sits in the 50-60 point range.
Oskar Pettersson:
While still early, Pettersson’s trajectory has vastly improved since being drafted. He was seen as somewhat of a reach in the 3rd round back in 2022, but backed that up with nearly a goal per game season in the J-20 league. 23 goals in 24 games is insane in any league, no matter what your age is. He spent the rest of the year in the SHL, where he was used very little. That being said though, I’m still extremely high on this player. His two-way game went up a level this past year, and he was a top penalty killer for team Sweden at the World Junior Championship. He’ll be back this year, and can be expected to be one of the best players in the tournament. He’s a natural goal scorer with drive and a strong two-way ability. He’ll hunt down pucks, but also be able to score goals from outside of the crease. I don’t think he’ll ever be a line driver, but his game compliments someone like Tim Stutzle immensely.
-Damian Smith
Twitter: @Damian__Smith
Photo: The AHL. This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license.