There’s nothing worse in fantasy than looking back at your draft midway through the year and seeing what could have been. It’s impossible to predict every player’s upcoming season, but there are definitely indicators going into your drafts that show signs that certain players won’t live up to their ADP.
This list is here to help you make that difficult choice to pass on a really skilled player to find more upside elsewhere. Everyone on this list will be and deserves to be rostered in most standard leagues – but some players get hyped up too far in the offseason and never come close to producing what you hoped they would.
No one wins their fantasy league on draft day – but you can certainly lose it.
Quarterbacks
Dak Prescott – Dallas Cowboys – QB 10, ADP 77
Prescott is coming off a shaky season where he led the league in interceptions despite playing in just 12 games. Breaking your thumb as a quarterback is never going to result in a stellar season. But despite the injury, it was actually his decision making that was most concerning. Many of those interceptions were just poor throws into double coverage.
This offseason he lost his offensive coordinator in Kellen Moore because Mike McCarthy thinks they scored too quickly and were too focused on the aerial attack. This year’s version of the Cowboys under McCarthy and OC Brian Schotteinheimer look to have a more run-orientated, lower-volume passing attack, which doesn’t bode well for Prescott’s fantasy numbers.
At the beginning of his career, Prescott was a viable threat on the ground as well as through the air. However that’s largely disappeared from his game over the past few seasons since suffering a major ankle injury in 2020. He’s only punched in 2 touchdowns over the past 2 seasons, and hasn’t topped 300 rushing yards in a year since 2018.
To their credit, the Cowboys have given Prescott a better wide receiver room than last season, as Brandin Cooks joins Ceedee Lamb and Michael Gallup (who is now 2 years removed from his ACL tear). Despite the slower paced offense, Prescott should be in line for a bounce back season on the field. He could very well finish inside the top 10 overall at QB for your fantasy team. However, Prescott rarely flashes any elite level games anymore. He has an ok floor, but when your team is matched up against any of the higher tiered quarterbacks, there isn’t much hope that Prescott will be able to match their production, let alone top it. Last season among 31 quarterbacks with 300+ dropbacks, Prescott tied for 12th in yards per attempt. That lack of downfield action isn’t what you want from your fantasy quarterback.
Tua Tagovailoa – Miami Dolphins – QB 11, ADP 86
While pointing out the health concerns surrounding Tua is fairly redundant at this point, that fact still has to be taken into account when it comes to fantasy. Two concussions over the course of one season has a major impact on someone’s well being, and the risk of repeat concussions is so high when it comes to brain injuries.
Adding to the concern is that if we look at Tua’s season as a whole in 2022, the numbers look solid on the surface – 3548 yards, 35 touchdowns in just about 12 and a half games. Tua started off the season great, and when the trio of Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle were all healthy, the offense looked unstoppable.
Unfortunately the consistency wasn’t there. Tagovailoa had 4 monster weeks last season for fantasy owners – and 8 weeks where he scored less than 20 fantasy points. The joys of having some blowout weeks must be weighed against his down weeks. Tua is the 11th QB going in fantasy right now, and is a later round pick. But it still feels like you need to find a QB to pair with Tagovailoa so that you’re not scrambling to fill the spot when he inevitably misses time.
At his current ADP, there are plenty of super high ceiling young wideouts that can truly break out this year that can be game changers on your roster. I would rather be taking a flier on one of them than hitching my quarterback position to the uncertainty of Tagovailoa.
Running Backs
Rhamondre Stevenson – New England Patriots – RB 10, ADP 25
Stevenson was an early riser on draft boards after an impressive sophomore season, finishing with over 1,000 yards rushing and 400 yards receiving. But putting trust in a Bill Belichick running back comes with too much risk for me to justify taking him at the end of the 2nd/early 3rd round.
Belichick notoriously uses a running back committee, so the signing of Ezekiel Elliott to the roster didn’t change my attitude towards Stevenson too much. There was always going to be someone else brought in to take away the goal line opportunities. Belichick had hoped that role would be filled by Damien Harris last season. However after an injury plagued year, he was almost forced to increase Stevenson’s workload. With Stevenson’s 4 fumbles from week 13 on, the fact that Belichick kept him on the field was more a testament to his lack of faith in the rest of the running backs than it was him showing confidence in Stevenson.
Stevenson will still have a good season. He’s a superb route runner and pass catcher. Only Christian McCaffrey, Austin Ekeler and Aaron Jones saw more screen passes in 2022 than Stevenson did. But when I’m looking at the draft around pick 25 and I see names like Jaylen Waddle, DeVonta Smith or Mark Andrews, I’m leery about investing such an important pick in a Belichick running back. Perhaps I’ve been scorned too many times in the past, but I just don’t like the risk of Stevenson having all of his red-zone looks poached, not to mention Elliott coming in for blocking on obvious passing down situations.
Travis Etienne – Jacksonville Jaguars – RB 12, ADP 30
Etienne hasn’t had the easiest start to his NFL career. He missed his entire rookie season after getting injured in Week 2 of the preseason in 2021 (although you could argue that missing a season with Urban Meyer as coach is actually beneficial). He entered last season behind James Robinson on the depth chart, but quickly took over as the lead back and had a strong season in Jacksonville, finishing with 1,125 rushing yards. From weeks 7-17 (removing the game against Baltimore where Etienne left with an injury), the Jags new lead back averaged 15 points per game (RB8). He also finished the 2022 fantasy regular season tied for 5th in carries inside the 10 yard line with 23 – but he only managed to reach the end zone on 4 of those high value touches.
For his standout performance last season, the Jags rewarded him by drafting Tank Bigsby. Bigsby was excellent at pass catching in college, something that Etienne was expected to be able to handle in the NFL, but so far hasn’t been able to consistently add it to his repertoire. Etienne had some strange quotes about pass catching prior to his final college season, admitting he gets spooked and nervous when catching passes and when the ball is in the air. Bigsby is also larger than Etienne, so combining that with his pass catching abilities, it would make sense to assume that Bigsby can take some of the red zone work away from Etienne as early as this season.
To me, Etienne is being drafted at his ceiling. RB12 this year would be great – but again in the 2nd/early 3rd we’re looking for players who have more potential to break out. They may be more volatile, but fantasy winning rosters always have two or three breakout players on their roster, and I just don’t see how Etienne has a path to rocket up the rankings this season.
Kenneth Walker III – Seattle Seahawks – RB 16, ADP 38
I think this one is fairly self explanatory. Walker had an excellent rookie season, but came into the league with an injury history and has been dealing with injuries throughout training camp.
Like Etienne, Walker is also a victim to his team drafting a high end running back just as his career is getting started. The Seahawks drafted Zach Charbonnet in the 2nd round, and look to have big plans for the explosive rookie. Walker has also yet to prove he can be relied upon in the passing game. Despite racking up 1,050 yards and 9 touchdowns on the ground last year, his receiving line of 27-165-0 over 15 games is fairly disappointing.
Walker began last season in a timeshare with Rashaad Penny. But after Penny went down with an injury in week 5, Walker truly excelled as a lead back. However, early signs point towards Pete Carroll wanting to get Charbonnet involved in the offense from week 1. While Walker has missed time at camp with injuries, Charbonnet has exclusively been working with the 1st team offense. There are safer picks at 38th overall than a running back battling injuries, isn’t involved in the passing game and is likely going to split work in the backfield.
Wide receivers
Davante Adams – Las Vegas Raiders – WR 8, ADP 17
Adams has proven year after year he’s one of the best wide receivers in the NFL. Despite the fact he will turn 31 near the end of this season, his elite route running and football IQ will allow him to age gracefully. But I don’t have enough faith in the Raiders offense this coming season to draft Adams in the 2nd round, especially with so many elite wide receivers available.
The Raiders now have Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback, who’s only started 31 games over the past three seasons due to a myriad of injuries. Garoppolo’s game was never about the deep ball, the area of the field that Adams excelled at while working with Derek Carr last season. Jimmy G has Carr beat in career completion rate and yards per attempt, but that was largely due to Kyle Shanahan’s QB friendly system. He hasn’t ranked higher than 39th in percentage of throws that travel 20+ yards over the last 4 seasons, which is where the Raiders liked to deploy Adams in their offense last season. Adams has shown in the past that he can certainly be dominant in more of a short yardage passing game role. But with Jakobi Meyers and Hunter Renfrow as the WR2 and WR3, the Raiders already have 2 underneath receivers on the field.
Adams was targeted an insane 180 times last season, and although his efficiency metrics dropped from previous season, he still finished with 100 catches, 1,516 receiving yards and 14 TDs. He’s finished as a top 11 wide receiver in 7 straight seasons, but it feels like those high end numbers aren’t sustainable in Garoppolo’s first year in Josh McDaniels offense.
Deebo Samuel – San Francisco 49ers – WR 16, ADP 40
Everyone wants to get a piece of the 49ers offense, and that’s caused the ADP of players like George Kittle and Deebo Samuel to rise a little too high for me to be comfortable taking.
Samuel was a fantasy disappointment last season – he missed 4 games, saw his efficiency tank, and lost work after the arrival of Christian McCaffrey. Samuel does his best work when he can get the ball in space. Whether on short throws or even handoffs (which are more and more rare since his impressive 8 rushing touchdowns in 2021). But McCaffrey is in line to take over the bulk of that work, likely leaving Samuel with a more limited role. Kittle (when healthy) controls the space in the middle of the field, and Brandon Aiyuk works as a more traditional receiver, leaving Samuel looking for scraps.
Samuel has also missed time over the past 3 seasons, so drafting him comes with the knowledge that you’ll have to find a replacement for him for at least a few matchups. Shanahan will continue to draw up plays for Samuel to keep him involved in the offense, and the talent is certainly there, but he has too low of a floor for to be taken within the first 40 picks.
Christian Kirk – Jacksonville Jaguars – WR 30, ADP 74
Kirk was likely the steal of the year last season for fantasy owners in his first year in Jacksonville. But if early camp news is any indication, he’s in line for a much smaller workload this coming season. In 2022, Kirk was targeted 133 times, and turned that into 84-1108-8. The Jags are a team on the rise, and they want to take advantage of having Trevor Lawrence on his rookie deal, so they went out and added to the offense, with the biggest name being WR Calvin Ridley.
Ridley has question marks himself – he hasn’t played an NFL game since October of 2021 – but by all accounts has been impressive at camp. He’s secured the WR1 spot for the Jags, which comes as no surprise.
While many of us expected Ridley and Kirk to form an impressive duo at wide receiver, it’s actually been Zay Jones taking the majority of snaps in 2 wide receiver sets, with Kirk rotating in as the slot receiver. It makes sense – he certainly has the skill set to excel in the slot – but it will drastically limit the amount of snaps he gets over the course of a season. Add that downgrade in with the amount of targets that Ridley looks like he is ready to absorb, as well as more passing catching out of the backfield this season, and Kirk looks like he’s in for a huge dropoff this season. The fantasy community has taken notice, as the most up to date ADP pages have been tracking Kirk’s downfall, but he’s still going too high as the 30th wide receiver off the board.
Mike Evans – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – WR 32, ADP 79
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are in for a long season, and with Baker Mayfield replacing Tom Brady, Evans fantasy owner’s only hope is for an early trade out of town.
Evans, who is about to turn 30, may well be in line to be under 1,000 yards on the season for the first time in his career. Mayfield doesn’t have the downfield accuracy to sustain Evan’s 15.3 yards per catch, and the team won’t be close to the end zone enough for Evans to make up the fantasy points with touchdowns. He’s coming off a five year low 6 touchdowns last season, and it’ll be a struggle to match that total this year.
Unless the offensive line takes massive steps forward this season, Mayfield figures to be constantly under duress, which means fellow wideout Chris Godwin’s underneath route running abilities will be a bigger boon to this offense than the deep threat ability of Mike Evans.
Tight Ends
David Njoku – Cleveland Browns – TE 10, ADP 93
The tight end position can be like voodoo as fantasy owners are desperate to find someone that they can plug in and play without any worries. But I just don’t see it with David Njoku. The 27 year old is entering his 7th year in the league, and including last year, has only had 3 career top 25 fantasy seasons. He finished last season as the TE11, scoring seven top-12 weekly finishes. Not exactly eye popping numbers.
The Browns offense actually took a step back once Deshaun Watson returned from his suspension, and Njoku was one of many players who’s fantasy value was hurt by that. Banking on Njoku late to be your tight end is banking on Watson, and from what we saw of him last season, that isn’t a safe bet.
The Browns have also been clearly trying to find a way to use Elijah Moore after trading for him this offseason. Moore has been moved all around the field on offense and looks to bring some serious target competition for Njoku. Njoku’s target share last season was only 18.2% (12th amongst tight ends), so losing even a little bit more of the passing offense can easily bump him right out of the TE1 rankings.
Again, he’s a super late pick, but if you’ve gotten this far in your draft, you’ve essentially already punted the position. Might as well snag one of those rookie receivers with upside, let someone else draft Njoku and take a flier on a tight end later in the draft. Njoku has just enough name value that you almost feel obligated to keep him on your roster, but not enough talent for him to be a weekly starter.
-Devon Gallant
Twitter: @DevGallant
Photo: Erik Drost. This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license.