UFC Vegas 76 Analysis

UFC Vegas 76: Strickland vs Magomedov – 7.1.2023 – Fight Predictions and Analysis

Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC Vegas 76: Strickland vs Magomedov. A loaded month of UFC action begins today in Las Vegas with a solid primetime lineup. Our analysis includes a pick for every bout from Dynes Sports contributors Anthony Marro and Nicholas Marro.

As coverage continues, we will keep our records up to date below. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick though as records will not reflect confidence. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few.

Current Record

Anthony: 139-109-3 (Last Year 320-187-3, 63%)
Nick: 158-90-3 (Last Year 324-183-3, 64%)

*Fight odds were last updated from Bet99 on 6-30-2023 at 11pm EST

Preliminary Card- Starts 4:00pm EST

Alexander Romanov -135 vs Blagoy Ivanov +110

Anthony: Today’s event begins at heavyweight with Blagoy Ivanov set to face Alexander Romanov. While I was high on Romanov in his entrance into the UFC he has severely disappointed with losses in his last two fights. Elite striking has proven to get the better of him as was the case facing Alexander Volkov. Ivanov has the better boxing without a doubt but I largely see this being a fight where these two jockey in the clinch for position. While Romanov would love to takedown and finish Ivanov, we have seen rather solid defense from the Bulgarian in his 25 fight career. Ivanov is also incredibly durable having only been finished one time, by choke. Romanov has poor cardio and energy conservation, making it a fight Ivanov can win by bagging rounds two and three. Romanov is of course the better grappler but I see him struggling to execute his normal sumo holds and trips facing such a savvy veteran. I do not want to bet on him as the favorite in this spot. Blagoy Ivanov by Decision
Nick: The 32-year-old Romonav has shown an ability to lift other heavyweights entirely off the ground and rag-doll them as if they were a whole lot smaller. He has decent striking ability at range, but highly effective ground-and-pound and a decent choke game when can take his opponents to the mat. He’s coming off back-to-back losses, most recently via KO to Alexander Volkov. Romanov’s grappling is certainly his greatest strength, but his cardio has proved to be suspect at best. As a result, if he can’t finish fights early he often fades and allows his opponents to take over as his fights wear on. Blagoy Ivanov is best known for his outstanding durability. He has never been KO’d professionally, carrying a solid 19-5 professional record into this match-up. He’s a decent striker offensively, but he sometimes struggles to put out consistent volume. Ivanov is a capable grappler as a former combat sambo world champion. He has excellent takedown defense and creative entries offensively. There is a decent chance that Romanov can overwhelm Ivanov early here. However, if he can’t his cardio is likely to fail him once again. This is a low-level match-up and a low confidence play, but I’ll side with Ivanov and his durability and hope he can take over as this fight wears on. Blagoy Ivanov by Decision

Ivana Petrovic -220 vs Luana Carolina +175

Anthony: Next is a bout at women’s flyweight with Luana Carolina facing Ivana Petrovic. While not the most exciting matchup on paper I do look forward to getting a glimpse of Petrovic here inside of the UFC. The undefeated professional has had a good run thus far in Ares, showcasing a well rounded skillet and good volume striking at this particular weight. She faces Carolina here who relies a bit too much on the single shot for my liking. Her takedowns defense is not the best and I find Petrovic likely to mix her attacks here and keep Carolina on the defensive. I do not think the ceiling is very high for this Croatian but certainly she seems like a good bet facing one of the worst fighters at 125 pounds. Carolina is just 3-3 inside of the octagon. Ivana Petrovic by Decision
Nick: Ivana Petrovic will be making her UFC debut as the AFC Flyweight Championship. She is 6-0 professionally, with five of those six wins coming via finish. Petrovic is a well-rounded fighter, but she hasn’t been tested extensively against top level competition. Carolina does her best work striking at range. She’s going to have a considerable reach advantage here, but she doesn’t really carry the type of power it may take to keep Petrovic from closing distance. The key to this match-up will likely be Carolina’s ability to keep this fight standing and out of the clinch. She has decent takedown defense, but Petrovic is likely effective enough on the feet that she should be able to set up timely entries if she chooses to. This should be a close match-up and it’s a tough fight to call, but I like the value of Carolina here as an underdog. She’s the more dangerous striker and her height should help her to keep this fight standing. Petrovic has been impressive, but her level of competition is questionable at best. Luana Carolina by Decision

Guram Kutateladze -700 vs Elves Brenner +475

Anthony: This should be a good scrap at lightweight with Guram Kutateladze facing Elves Brenner. Originally Kutateladze had been slated to face Jamie Mullarkey last month but now he faces Brenner having been left without an opponent once again. Brenner had gotten a winnable matchup with Jordan Leavitt for the card today before seeing it fall through. He is a durable Brazilian who will surely show up to fight hard despite being at a significant disadvantage. Money has poured in on Kutateladze given his edge in size and offensive striking. He should have the edge landing offense here as these two largely clash in kickboxing range. I trust the defensive jiu jitsu from Kutateladze, defending from any strange submission attempts that Brenner may elect to throw. I expect to see Kutateladze cruise in this matchup and possibly finish Brenner if his offensive attack is rushed. Guram Kutateladze by Decision
Nick: Kutateladze has excellent grappling ability, especially defensively. He’s a dangerous striker, but far from conventional in both his stance and the angles from which he throws. He throws a lot of wild but powerful high kicks. He fights at a torrid pace, he has excellent cardio, and he’s already secured a signature win over a top-10 lightweight in Mateusz Gamrot. Elves Brenner is coming off a controversial decision win over Zubaira Tukhugov in his UFC debut. It was somewhat baffling to see he was awarded a win in that fight, as he was both outstruck and outgrappled for the majority of those three rounds. This match-up represents a dramatic step up in competition for him here, and while the line has gotten wide I fully expect Kutateladze to outclass him no matter where this fight goes. Guram Kutateladze by Round Two KO

Karol Rosa -170 vs Yana Santos +140

Anthony: Next is a women’s featherweight fight between Karol Rosa and Yana Santos. This is one of the card’s toughest bouts to call with each woman yielding poor results as of late. Santos has now dropped two fights in a row albeit against quality opponents and former title contenders. I think she is a bit more skilled than Rosa while less accustomed to competing at 145 pounds. Rosa has the much better frame for this division and the striking offense to stop Santos from moving forward with aggression. Rosa lands 5.58 significant strikes per minute and tends to show much tighter boxing than her opponent. I think we are treated to a back and forth affair here, but Rosa does seem to have a small edge on paper. Her recent losses have only come to bigger and physically stronger foes. Karol Rosa by Decision
Nick: Karol Rosa has landed nearly six strikes per minute in the UFC, and she also averages just under 1.5 takedowns per fifteen minutes. She is a well-rounded fighter, coming off a hard fought decision loss to Norma Dumont. Rosa has solid footwork and she does a good job forcing her opponents to fight moving backwards. Santos is well-rounded. She has crisp boxing and fights at an effective pace. She was dominated her last time out by a top contender in Holly Holm, but she tends to do well against anyone that isn’t ranked at the top of the division. This is a tough fight to call because at her best, Santos should have a massive grappling advantage. I do feel she’s a bit past her prime, but the advantage should still be enough to mostly keep this one grounded. Yana Santos by Decision

Joanderson Brito -1400 vs Westin Wilson +750

Anthony: Joanderson Brito will face UFC newcomer Westin Wilson at featherweight. Rarely will we see such wide odds at this level but Wilson is clearly up against it today as he takes this bout on short notice. The 16-7 professional has competed frequently over the past several years while seeing mixed results against below average competition. He really does not seem to belong here with rudimentary boxing and an offensive grappling attack that most UFC level opponents will easily nullify. Brito should do exactly that today, putting his hands on Wilson early and showing quite clearly that his BJJ is superior. Brito is intimidating for a 145 pounder and I see him forcing Wilson to quit rather early here. I do not see an upset of this size materializing. Joanderson Brito by Round One KO
Nick: Brito is known to be extremely aggressive early in fights. He throws explosive strikes, he has powerful takedown entries, and dangerous BJJ as well. His hyper-aggressive style allows him to overwhelm many of his opponents and I fully expect he can lean on that style and game plan to secure another win here. Westin Wilson is taking this fight on short notice and it’s somewhat surprising to see he’s getting a chance in the UFC. He is 16-7 professionally, and most of his wins have come against an extremely low level of opponent. I fully expect Brito to come out aggressive here and steamroll Wilson early in the first round. Joanderson Brito by Round One Submission

Rinat Fakhretdinov -210 vs Kevin Lee +165

Anthony: The featured prelim is a welterweight contest between RInat Fakhretdinov and Kevin Lee. This is a good piece of matchmaking, testing if Lee has any fight left in him after a very swift fall from grace. While the narrative surrounding Lee has not been pleasant, I still believe the 30 year old is a serviceable fighter in this division. A year removed from a contest with Diego Sanchez where Lee did not look good, this feels like an opportunity to buy low in him rebounding. He is a phenomenal offensive wrestler and likely good enough to defend Fakhretdinov from landing shots of his own. Lee would be wise to counter wrestle in the early going of this fight before implementing his own grappling attacks. His reach gives him a slight edge over Fakhretdinov standing and I expect Lee to continue scoring late even as these two begin to tire. I cannot support Fakhretdinov lined up at -210 today. I do not see him keeping control of Lee or scoring many takedowns after round one. Kevin Lee by Round Three KO
Nick: Primarily a grappler, it’s a bit surprising to see eleven of Fakhretdinov’s twenty-one professional wins have come via KO. He has an impressive record at 21-2, but outside of his recent win over Bryan Battle he really hasn’t been tested extensively against top level competition. Fakhretdinov is a gifted wrestler who does exceptional work against the cage. He throws powerful strikes but mostly as a means to set up his grappling. Kevin Lee makes his return to the UFC here, after he was cut from the promotion back in 2021. He’s undersized for the division, but at 30-years old there is a chance we continue to see him make considerable improvements. Lee usually looks excellent early in most of his fights, but then starts to fade due to his questionable gas tank. Lee should have a considerable striking advantage here, but if he can’t put Fakhretdinov early it seems likely he’ll fade as this fight wears on. The line feels wide, but Fakhretdinov should be able to secure a win here after falling behind early. Rinat Fakhretdinov by Decision

Main Card- Starts 7:00pm EST

Brunno Ferreira -215 vs Nursulton Ruziboev +170

Anthony: I am very excited for the main card opener between Brunno Ferreira and the debuting Nursulton Ruziboev. These are two high action middleweights with very clear intentions as soon as each fight begins. Ferreira had a shocking debut of his own in the UFC, stopping Gregory Rodrigues and climbing to a perfect 10-0. All ten of those wins for Ferreira came by stoppage, landing heavy counters and battering opponents with his heavy hands. I could see Ferreira struggling to get inside on a longer and taller opponent such as this, but only a few shots need to connect before Ruziboev hits the canvas. While Ruziboev is the much more experienced professional, he has not faced the highest echelon of competition. Ruziboev will look to grapple and chase early submission attempts here and I doubt he ends up successful. I imagine a quick armbar or kimura is Ruziboev’s one shot at victory today but I otherwise see him having his lights turned out in the early going. Ferreira seems to have solid counter wrestling and the much better stand up of these two. I will bet Ferreira by knockout here but more of my action will be on the under. I do not see this fight going more than five or six minutes. Brunno Ferreira by Round One KO
Nick: Brunno Ferreira is a powerful and aggressive striker and explosive in terms of his overall athletic ability. He’s coming off an extremely impressive win in his UFC debut, where he KO’d Gregory Rodrigues in the first round as a +250 underdog. Ferreira is 10-0 professionally, and carries massive power for a Middleweight. His cardio and durability are somewhat of a question as he has finished all of his fights quickly, but he does seem to have a high ceiling at just 30-years old. Nursulton Ruziboev will be making his UFC debut here, coming off of seven consecutive wins via finish. He is 34-8-2 professionally and only 29-years old, but he has yet to take on anyone on the skill level of Ferreira. This is a low confidence play as Ruziboev is relatively unproven. However, I do see Ferreira as the rightful favorite. I expect he can keep this fight standing enough to find a timely KO. Brunno Ferreira by Round Two KO

Ismael Bonfim -335 vs Benoit Saint-Denis +250

Anthony: Next is a great matchup with Ismael Bonfin facing Benoit Saint-Denis at lightweight. Many were introduced to the Bonfim brothers during UFC 283 in Brazil. That event saw Ismael Bonfim cimb to 19-3, putting on a striking masterclass against Terrance McKinney. Bonfim is a very fast striker with great kickboxing and muay thai. He is going to have the edge exchanging with most of this division thanks to his quickness and a sharp defensive response. Saint-Denis is a very durable fighter, mixing great grappling with a solid offense on the feet. I think he is live to pull off the upset today despite all of the hype now surrounding this prospect. Bonfim should pay off this price tag quite convincingly and yet I worry backing him with my own money. I consider Gabriel Bonfim a much more potent finisher than Ismael. Ismael Bonfim by Decision
Nick: Ismael Bonfim is 19-3 professionally, coming off an impressive KO win over Terrance McKinney in his UFC debut. He’s strong for the division. He’s a dangerous and explosive striker that does a good job feinting to lead his opponents into power shots. He has solid BJJ, and it seems in spite of his hyper-aggressive style his cardio is solid as well. His last loss came to Renato Moicano, all the way back in 2014. Saint-Denis is a BJJ specialist with a solid wrestling base and an impressive arsenal of submissions at his disposal. He’s coming off back-to-back wins under the UFC banner, and he enters this fight with an impressive 10-1 record professionally. Saint-Denis will be the better wrestler here, but I don’t expect he can keep Bonfim grounded consistently. I really don’t like the price, but I see the young Brazilian as the rightful favorite. Ismael Bonfim by Decision

Melissa Gatto -235 vs Ariane Lipski +185

Anthony: This is a bout at women’s flyweight between Melissa Gatto and Ariane Lipski. Gatto suffered her first professional loss in May of last year with Tracy Cortez beating her by decision. This extended hiatus could yield an improved version of Gatto and yet I find previous iterations still good enough to beat the likes of Ariane Lipski. While the striking of Lipski is rather crisp and dangerous in close range, Gatto will keep this bout competitive standing and likely force numerous exchanges rolling with Lipski on the mat. We have seen much more in terms of effective jiu jitsu from Gatto compared to the grappling of Lipski. It would not surprise me to see Lipski once again fighting out of positions while grounded and perhaps even getting caught in a choke. Thus far in the UFC, Lipski is a mere 4-5. Melissa Gatto by Round Three Submission
Nick: Melissa Gatto lands more than four significant strikes per minute, but she’s primarily a grappler. She struggles at times to get her opponents to the mat, but she has advanced BJJ ability and she can be very dangerous off her back. She is 8-1-2 professionally, coming off the only loss of her career to a tough out in Tracy Cortez. Lipski is a decent muay thai striker, but defensively she leaves a lot to be desired. She is coming off an impressive KO win over JJ Aldrich, but she has been mostly inconsistent for the extent of her UFC tenure. Lipski is athletic and occasionally she looks excellent in the cage. She’s decent everywhere, but she doesn’t really merge her grappling and striking well. She telegraphs many of her strikes, and she can only find success on the mat if she lucks into a favorable position. This is another tough one to call, but I expect Gatto can get her grappling going early here. Melissa Gatto by Round Two Submission

Michael Morales -250 vs Max Griffin +200

Anthony: This welterweight contest features Michael Morales as he faces Max Griffin. Morales is an undefeated prospect, getting the rub here from an opponent in Griffin who has fought fifteen bouts in the UFC. Pain is a rather steady force in the octagon, landing 4.23 significant strikes per minute while absorbing a mere 43 percent of his opponent’s offense thrown. He is good at hitting while not getting hit and making fights competitive thanks to his range management skills. Morales is longer and much quicker than Griffin, making this a tough stylistic draw for him. While I think Griffin can mix things up and keep this bout very competitive, I find it hard to imagine him outclassing Morales over the course of three rounds. This kid appears to be very durable and his kickboxing will be much more polished than that of his 37-year-old foe. Morales has a great chance to extend his winning streak today, and I view him as one of this card’s best bets. Michael Morales by Decision
Nick: Morales is only 24 years old, but he already fights with patience and poise. He has a decent wrestling base, but he certainly prefers to stand and trade. He does an excellent job mixing kicks into his combinations, he has excellent footwork especially defensively. While his volume on the feet can be low at times, his offensive strikes are both explosive and accurate. He is an underrated grappler with decent BJJ, which could present a clear path to victory for him in this particular match-up. Griffin is a well-rounded fighter, but his greatest strength is his athleticism. He has a very large frame for a welterweight and he’s shown solid strength against a variety of high level competition. Griffin is coming off back-to-back split decisions and he tends to fight to the level of his opponent. To me this fight feels closer than the line indicates. However, Morales is going to have an advantage on the feet here and an even more dramatic advantage if this fight hits the mat. I don’t like the price, but I do see Morales as the rightful favorite. Michael Morales by Round Three KO

Damir Ismagulov -110 vs Grant Dawson -110

Anthony: The co-main event is a lightweight matchup between Damir Ismagulov and Grant Dawson. The odds have stayed near pick’em all week for this contest as both men look to establish themselves as threats in the division’s top fifteen. Ismagulov is a very polished fighter entering this bout at 24-2. While he did suffer a loss against Arman Tsarukyan his last time out, I see many opponents struggling to ground Ismagulov as was the case that day. The Russian has rather good sambo and takedowns of his own, simply succumbing to the unrelenting pressure of Tsarukyan in that bout. Dawson is similar in terms of his forward pressure but not nearly as talented a wrestler. He will be at a significant disadvantage striking here if Ismagulov is able to defend his attempts at scoring takedowns. I do not find Dawson tempting at all here as the punching power is also not great. It will be an uphill battle proving that he is the superior fighter in what I view as a fifteen minute kickboxing affair. We are very likely to need the judge’s scorecards for this one. Damir Ismagulov by Decision
Nick: Ismagulov is a skilled striker with excellent footwork and wrestling ability. He’s extremely well-rounded and technically advanced. He throws tight combinations, works well-behind his jab, and his gas tank is seemingly endless. He’s coming off the first loss of his professional career, to a future title contender in Arman Tsarukyan. He is 19-1-1 professionally, and after entertaining the idea of retiring it seems he’s once again fully focused on climbing the rankings at 155 lbs. Dawson’s striking continues to improve, but there’s really no denying that most of his success has come on the mat. He is 19-1-1 professionally, coming off back-to-back wins via submission. He hasn’t lost a fight since 2016 and many expect he will continue to climb the rankings in a stacked lightweight division. These are two solid grapplers, but I see Ismagulov as the much more effective striker. In a fight that should primarily take place on the feet, he certainly feels like the side. Damir Ismagulov by Decision

Sean Strickland -155 vs Abus Magomedov +125

Anthony: Tonight’s main event is a fight between Abus Magomedov and middleweight contender Sean Strickland. It is an interesting piece of matchmaking with Magomedov a clearly talented prospect, simply lacking notoriety and UFC experience. Magomedov has certainly competed with top flight competition before and I see him fairing well with Strickland standing opposite. His kickboxing is very crisp and fluid, largely focused on forward pressure and landing timely combinations. Magomedov is quick on his feet but also quick to make decisions inside of the cage. He may be able to overwhelm Strickland with activity in this fight but I see a more steady approach proving to be what is fruitful. Strickland is quite accustomed to a five round main event and not at all quick to push the action when a fight clock is ticking. I see him working behind a jab with success early here today, and using his defensive shell to keep the body and head protected. Strickland should accumulate damage on Abus as he snaps out jabs and counters with timing just a bit better than his. Strickland will be in position to get hit quite a lot here but I do not view Magomedov as the knockout threat he appeared to be making his debut. Strickland seems like the better pick as a small favorite. These odds continue to get closer as we approach the fight. Sean Strickland by Decision
Nick: Strickland has only lost to an elite level of competition. He’s an extremely talented kickboxer with excellent takedown defense and underrated BJJ. He does an excellent job countering a wide-range of strikers. He has excellent footwork and head movement. He pushes a serious pace and he does an excellent job weaponizing his cardio, especially in five round fights. Strickland is coming off a dominant decision win over Nassourdine Imavov in a fight he took on short notice. Magomedov is a rangy striker with a decent wrestling base and dangerous BJJ. He’s coming off an impressive KO win in his UFC debut, but it’s tough to know exactly which version we see of him here as he only has 19 seconds of cage time since 2020. Prior to his quick finish of Dustin Stoltzfus, he already has notable wins over Sadibou Sy, Cezary Kesik, and Jessin Ayari with PFL and KSW. Magomedov is certainly experienced within the sport, but he really hasn’t faced anyone on the level of a Sean Strickland. I expect Strickland to work well behind his jab here, strike out of both stances as he keep Magomedov mostly on his back foot. As long as he doesn’t get caught early, he should stay a step ahead of Magomedov no matter where this once goes. Sean Strickland by Round Four KO

-Anthony Marro

Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_

-Nick Marro

Twitter: @NickMarroDFS

Photo: UFC.com