Mets Running Out of Time to Avoid Becoming Sellers at Trade Deadline
Things appear very bleak for the struggling New York Mets as the August 1st trade deadline fast approaches, putting the franchise in a tight spot over the next few weeks.
Following another disappointing loss to the San Francisco Giants Friday, the Mets fell to 36-46 at the midway mark of the 2023 season, dropping them to ten games out of a playoff spot in the tightly-packed National League.
Amidst a disastrous first half, New York has lost 18 of its last 24 games and failed to secure a series victory in June, with the club’s most recent one coming against the Philadelphia Phillies at the end of May. As a result, they are currently on pace to miss the postseason with a 71-91 record.
The Mets have endured poor starts before, of course, as they went a franchise-worst 23-58 run in the first half during their inaugural campaign in 1962. But, unlike in 2023, their payroll didn’t lead the majors by a wide margin that season.
Expectations were set incredibly high for baseball’s highest-paid roster, which entered this season with a Collective Balance Tax payroll (before luxury tax penalties) of nearly $378 million. That hasn’t translated into the type of success owner Steve Cohen hoped it would, though.
New York, 18.5 games out of first place in the NL East, has little-to-no chance of overthrowing the Atlanta Braves for top spot in the division. And it could be even tougher to make up ground in the wild-card race, as they’d need to leapfrog six teams to claim the final playoff seed.
That would require not only improved results on the Mets front, but also significant assistance from around the league throughout the second half. Thus, FanGraphs currently has the organization’s postseason odds at just 7.1 percent, the fourth-lowest in the NL.
It could be make-or-break time for the Mets across these next three series versus the San Francisco Giants, Arizona Diamondbacks and San Diego Padres – three clubs they’re chasing in the wild-card field – heading into the All-Star break. But is it already too late?
If the losses continue piling up, general manager Billy Eppler will undoubtedly be forced into selling off valuable assets leading up to Aug. 1st – an unthinkable outcome just a few months ago.
Money, as it turns out, isn’t always the solution to crafting a top-tier roster. That has been a harsh reality for Cohen, who will likely be looking to recoup some of his first-half losses unless his team starts stringing together wins, as the Mets owner stated on Wednesday.
The Mets will be in a unique position if they’re sellers at the trade deadline. They could swing big with premier items like Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander and potentially Pete Alonso – a free agent after 2024 – to help set the pitcher and position player markets.
Or New York’s front office could operate a little more conservatively, fielding offers on a number of their complementary pieces – including impending free agents Carlos Carrasco, David Robertson and Tommy Pham.
In regards to Verlander and Scherzer, Cohen has already confirmed he doesn’t “want to broach that topic” with either superstar hurler. Not at the moment, at least, as their respective contracts would allow them to return next season.
Scherzer, however, has an opt-out clause after this season and would reportedly be willing to waive his no-trade condition if the Mets sold at the deadline, as per MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo.
At 38, the eight-time All-Star isn’t the same dominating pitcher who won consecutive NL Cy Young Awards with the Washington Nationals from 2016-17, though he’d still be a game-changer via trade. And he hasn’t pitched horribly with the Mets, either.
The 6-foot-3 righty owns a 3.87 ERA and 3.46 xERA over 14 starts this season, and has excelled over his previous three outings, allowing two runs or fewer while posting 25 combined strikeouts across 20.0 innings. He has also limited opponents to just four walks in this span.
Scherzer has struggled with the long ball, posting a 13.5 percent home-run-to-fly-ball ratio, the second-highest of his 16-year career. Eight of his 13 home runs surrendered, though, have been solo shots, allowing him to limit the damage.
There would surely be plenty of interest in Scherzer across the majors, especially if the Mets were willing to retain part of his $43.34 million salary. They would likely have to do the same with Verlander, inked through 2024 at an identical figure.
Verlander’s market, however, probably wouldn’t be as lucrative as Scherzer’s, given he is a few years older and has logged just 57.0 innings over 10 starts in 2023 due to a season-opening IL stint.
It also doesn’t help that the nine-time All-Star has been a far cry from his 2022 Cy Young-winning performance thus far, which has seen an increase in walks (6.3%) and home runs (11.8% HR/FB ratio) paired with fewer strikeouts (20.6%), ballooning his ERA to 4.11.
Last season, meanwhile, the former Houston Astro led all qualified big-league starters in ERA (1.75) and finished third in fWAR (6.1), fourth in FIP (2.49) and eighth in strikeout-to-walk rate difference (23.4%) en route to his third career Cy Young Award victory.
Even if the Mets don’t move Scherzer or Verlander, they could still strengthen their middle-of-the-pack farm system with a few other notable trades, subtracting from their pitching and position player groups. They would likely save money in the process as well.
Robertson, who filled in admirably in place of the injured Edwin Díaz (ACL tear), would likely be next in line as the most coveted trade target on New York’s roster. And rightly so, as he has dominated the competition in the primary closer’s role.
The 38-year-old has made 31 appearances in 2023, registering 11 saves with a 1.54 ERA – 10th lowest in the majors – over 35.0 innings with the Mets. Not to mention, his chase (32.0%), strikeout (30.6%) and whiff rates (34.3%) all rank in the 82nd percentile or higher.
Despite his impending free agency, Robertson – signed to a one-year deal worth $10 million last off-season – would leave the Mets bullpen in a further state of flux but would certainly net them a decent return.
Brooks Raley, whose contract includes a $4.5 million salary this season and a 2024 $6.5 million club option, is another arm most contenders would surely covet leading up to the deadline. He doesn’t possess the name recognition others do but has been effective versus righties and lefties.
The 35-year-old lefty features impressive reverse splits, with right-handers slashing just .176/.300/.255 against him. He has generated far more swing-and-miss against left-handers, though, resulting in a 21.7 percent K-BB rate difference.
Adding to his value, Raley also features prior closing experience, converting 10 saves during his time with the Mets, Astros and Rays since returning to North America in 2020.
From a position player perspective, Pham would likely garner interest as a fourth outfielder that crushes left-handed pitching, for which he owns a .257/.337/.514 slash line, six home runs and a 130 wRC+ against this season.
The 35-year-old, making $6 million in 2023, has also surprisingly been successful in right-on-right matchups, hitting .286/.349/.469 with a pair of round-trippers and a 127 wRC+. Thus, the veteran’s overall production sits 29 percent above league average, worth 1.0 fWAR over 60 games.
New York would also likely be open to moving outfielder Mark Canha – who’s signed for $11.5 million in 2023 and has a 2024 club option for the same amount in ‘24. But his 107 wRC+ and 0.4 fWAR rating in 68 contests could make teams hesitant about pursuing the 34-year-old.
Still, Canha is only one season removed from posting a .266/.367/.403 slash line with 13 home runs, a .343 wOBA and a 128 wRC+ over 140 games during his inaugural campaign with the Mets, worth 2.8 fWAR.
The Mets, of course, could avoid this unfavourable outcome by playing their best brand of baseball across these next two weeks. And, in doing so, may tempt the front office’s hand to send a few subtle reinforcements their way.
If not, the opposite will inevitably transpire for a franchise staring at missing the playoffs for a sixth time in seven seasons.
-Thomas Hall
Twitter: @ThomasHall85
Photo: All-Pro Reels. This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic license.