UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje II – 7.29.2023 – Fight Predictions and Analysis
Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje II. We have an absolutely stacked card today, loaded with talent on pay-per-view and headlined by a Fight of the Year rematch at lightweight. Our analysis includes a pick for every bout from Dynes Sports contributors Anthony Marro and Nicholas Marro.
As coverage continues, we will keep our records up to date below. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick though as records will not reflect confidence. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few.
Current Record
- Anthony: 169-132-3 (Last Year 320-187-3, 63%)
- Nick: 189-112-3 (Last Year 324-183-3, 64%)
*Fight odds were last updated from Bet99 on 7-28-2023 at 9m EST
Early Prelims- Start 7:00pm EST
Miranda Maverick -300 vs Priscila Cachoeira +230
- Anthony: Our card begins with a flyweight matchup between Miranda Maverick and Priscila Cachoeira. This is a rather interesting test for the prospect Maverick who has been a bit quiet as of late. She is coming off a loss to Jasmine Jasudavicius and I do find Maverick to be a bit overvalued at this line. Cachoeira has won two fights in a row and always poses a threat to her opponents given her power and rather aggressive striking. Maverick should get the better of most exchanges on the feet but she also has the edge grappling with Cachoeira if she elects to utilize her wrestling. It would not surprise me to see Cachoeira land a few knockdowns and win here but all signs point to Maverick passing this test. She has proven to excel in fights against lackluster competition.She should score more often than Cachoeira and stay out of dangerous positions. Miranda Maverick by Decision
- Nick: Maverick is a name that’s been building some hype for a while. She’s mostly known for her extremely high-fight IQ and very well-rounded overall game. She’s big for this division, with very powerful hips and more than enough grappling ability to avoid most compromising positions. Maverick continues to show improvement in her striking, but she’s still clearly developing that aspect of her game. She’s coming off a hard fought loss to Jasmine Jasudavicius via decision in a fight during which she was dominated on the mat. She’s in a more favorable match-up here against a primary striker in Priscila Cachoeira. Cachoeira is very compact in her stance, she throws fairly effective combinations and she does a good job using her volume to keep pressure on opponents. She can take a shot and keep moving forward, and she puts enough volume on her opponents to eventually find openings to land power shots. That being said, she takes a ridiculous amount of damage. She absorbs nearly eight significant strikes per minute and her aggressive style also presents opportunities for her opponents to find takedowns. The clearest path for Maverick here is to lean on her wrestling against a flawed grappler in Cachoeira. Cachoeira will be dangerous in exchanges, but I have trouble expecting she can keep this fight standing for long. The line feels wide, but Maverick should be able to force this fight to the mat where she should have a major advantage. Miranda Maverick by Round Three Submission
Matthew Semelsberger -215 vs Uros Medic +170
- Anthony: Next is a fight at welterweight between Matthew Semelsberger and Uros Medic. This is a very interesting matchup between fighters with varied styles. Medic does very well striking at range, utilizing his kickboxing to score on opponents from a distance. His length was a great tool down at 155 pounds but now that advantage gets negated at welterweight. He may fit into this weight class well but heavy grapplers will likely still control Medic with relative ease. Semelsberger will shoot the occasional takedown but I see him largely winning this bout utilizing his forward pressure and dirty boxing. Semelsberger can certainly wear on the gas tank of Medic and control this fight in the latter rounds when his man begins to tire. Semelsberger has a tendency to go to a decision and I certainly expect him to prepare for a very hard fifteen minutes today. He is the rightful favorite to win. Matthew Semelsberger by Decision
- Nick: Uros Medic is a skilled striker who is clearly gifted in terms of his technical abilities. He throws meaningful shots and pushes a serious pace but he sometimes over-exerts himself and gets stuck in questionable positions. He has never fought to a decision. His hyper-aggressive style allows him to take out inferior competition, but at the UFC level he’s going to need to learn to pace himself. Matthew Semelsberger is a powerful puncher who wins most of his fights via early KO. He’s 5-3 so far in the UFC, coming off a narrow decision loss to a tough out in Jeremiah Wells. Semelsberger does a good job using an aggressive style to force his opponents to retreat and while there are certainly holes in his game, his impressive power gives him a shot against almost anyone in this division. Semelsberger has continued to show improvements everywhere. I actually expect he might be the better wrestler in this match-up and while both of these fighters like to chase the early finish, we have seen Semelberger’s cardio hold through a three round fight. Medic has enough power to pull off the upset here, but that is likely his only path to victory. I’ll side with Semelsberger as the more experienced and well rounded fighter in this match-up. Matthew Semelsberger by Round Two KO
Preliminary Card- Starts 8:00pm EST
Jake Matthews -275 vs Darrius Flowers +215
- Anthony: The preliminary card begins with Jake Matthews welcoming UFC newcomer Darrius Flowers to welterweight. Matthews’ career to this point has been a bit of a rollercoaster but in general he can handle lower level competition like this. Flowers emerges from the LFA, largely fighting opponents with padded resumes or awful records of their own. He is an explosive athlete with a high finishing rate but I do not see him keeping up with Matthews in a fist fight. Matthews has very good boxing and does well rolling with shots. He really impressed me sparking out Andre Fialho last summer and the activity as of late has been a positive sign. On his best day Matthews is a fringe contender but it is always tough to know what version of the guy will be showing up. Flowers could capitalize early and get Matthews wrestling but I imagine most of this bout is fought at the range Jake wants. I do not feel very confident backing the favorite here but this is a huge step up in class for the debuting Flowers. Jake Matthews by Round Two KO
- Nick: Jake Matthews has more experience at this level than almost any other 28-year-old in the world. He’s a well-rounded fighter who has found most of his success on the mat. He is coming off an ugly decision loss to Matthew Semelsberger, but he has 11 wins under the UFC banner since he debuted back in 2014. Darrius Flowers will be making his UFC debut in this match-up. He is 12-5-1 professionally, coming off a KO slam win over Amiran Gogoladze on Contender Series. Flowers is somewhat undersized for the division, but he has one-shot KO power on the feet and a solid understanding of wrestling fundamentals. Simply, Matthews is the more technically sound fighter no matter where this one goes. I see him as the better grappler and the better overall striker as well. As long as he avoids Flowers’ power early, he should pull away as he secures a convincing win. Jake Matthews by Round One KO
Roman Kopylov -215 vs Claudio Ribeiro +175
- Anthony: This is a matchup at middleweight between Roman Kopylov and Claudio Ribeiro. Ribeiro has produced varied results in his past several fights despite not facing the highest level of competition. He is not the most explosive striker but he does land heavy with solid output over the course of a fifteen minute fight. Ribeiro is rather steady but a bit small for middleweight and certainly undersized here facing Kopylov. Ribeiro should do good work here in the clinch and while utilizing his muay thai, while Koylov’s distance striking will certainly give him the edge in exchanges at range. I think Kopylov is more versatile than Ribeiro and certainly the more likely fighter to win by finish. I am not enthused about betting Kopylov at the current line but nonetheless I see him winning here this evening. A combat sambo background has given Kopylov quick hands and great defensive reaction time. He should stay ahead of Ribeiro here in what is largely a kickboxing bout. Roman Kopylov by Round Three KO
- Nick: Kopylov is a dangerous offensive kickboxer at range. He does a solid job mixing heavy kicks into his combinations, but he is somewhat predictable as he seems to telegraph the majority of his shots. Kopylov looked great his last time out, where he secured a KO win over Punahele Soriano. It’s safe to expect he continues to improve as he’s still only 32-years old, and he is carrying momentum as he’s coming off back-to-back wins for the first time since 2018. Ribeiro was awarded a UFC contract off of a Contender Series win via KO over Iván Valenzuela, during an exchange that came just 25 seconds into his fight. He showed his exceptional power in that spot, but his defense seemed questionable at best. He’s very athletic and there is no denying his power, but in terms of technical ability it seems he’s still far from developed. His reckless style cost him in his UFC debut, a loss via KO to Abdul Razak Alhassan. He had moments early in that fight, but his lack of defense ultimately resulted in his first loss since 2018. He has since secured a submission win over Joseph Holmes, but Kopylov represents a far more skilled and advanced opponent. Ribeiro has enough power to pull off the upset here, but that seems to be his only path to victory. Kopylov is the more defensively sound striker with the better wrestling and cardio. He should outclass Ribeiro after a chaotic first round. Roman Kopylov by Round Two KO
C.J. Vergara -160 vs Vinicius Salvador +130
- Anthony: This is a bout at flyweight between C.J. Vergara and Vinicius Salvador. On Friday Salvador was more than two pounds heavy, a very significant weight miss for this division. He is a powerful and aggressive striker that certainly has great size for a flyweight, I just worry about his longevity fighting with this style and drastic weight cut. Certainly Salvador should have the edge over Vergara when it comes to kickboxing. He may not land with as great volume but the bigger shots should come from Salvador. Vergara will be the more active fighter in clinch positions but Salvador is not afraid to stand his ground and trade. I can see Vergara making this a dog fight and taking over late but Vinicius Salvador seems like a good underdog play. He is at a distinct power advantage and if this one is to end early, he will be finishing Vergara. It is not at all a confident pick but Salvador is an underdog I’ll take. Vinicius Salvador by Round Two KO
- Nick: C.J. Vegara is an interesting prospect as a former Flyweight Champion with FFC. He is 2-2 so far under the UFC banner, coming off an impressive comeback win via KO in a war with Daniel Lacerda. Vergara has developed a reputation as a slow starter. He’s decent everywhere, but he’s gotten by on exceptional durability and cardio more than any standout offensive skill. Salvador is primarily a striker, with thirteen of his fourteen professional wins having come via KO. He trains with UFC vet Amanda Ribas, under the tutelage of her father Marcelo Ribas. While he’s had a lot of success regionally, there is really no denying most of his wins have come against a questionable level of competition. He’s decent on the mat, but it’s tough to gauge his level as he favors striking in most of his recent match-ups. He looked decent in his UFC debut, a loss to Victor Altamarino. He was competitive on the feet and the mat in that loss, but it was clear he was facing by far the toughest test of his career. This is a relatively low level match-up and a fight I could see going either way. I’ll back Salvador as the underdog here as I expect his aggressive style could make it difficult for Vergara to get settled and find his timing. Vinicius Salvador by Round Two KO
Gabriel Bonfim -325 vs Trevin Giles +250
- Anthony: The featured prelim is a welterweight bout between Gabriel Bonfim and Trevin Giles. Bonfim is a highly regarded prospect, currently boasting an undefeated record at 14-0. He has very good striking but perhaps his best skill is in his offensive jiu jitsu. Compared to his brother Ismael, Bonfim is far better equipped for grappling heavy fights. He is averaging a takedown per round in the UFC and now has scored submission wins in three straight fights. While Giles defends 73 percent of opponent takedowns, he has not shown much in terms of his ability to get up from bottom position. I expect to see Bonfim shooting early and often here today. The UFC is attempting to build up Bonfim with a rather modest step up in competition. GIles will bring a tough fight but he is not very intimidating on the feet. I see the faster and most skilled Bonfim winning quite handily here. I recommend betting Bonfim by submission at near even money. Gabriel Bonfim by Round Two Submission
- Nick: Gabriel Bonfim is 14-0 professionally, coming off an impressive win via submission in his UFC debut over a tough out in the athletic Mounir Lazzez. Bonfim is an aggressive fighter and a potent finisher no matter where his fights go. Eleven of his fourteen professional wins have come via submission and the other three have come via KO. He’s an explosive striker who sometimes leaves himself there to be countered, but his speed and ability to roll with powerful strikes have him a class ahead on the feet of a majority of this division. His wrestling is decent, but he has outstanding BJJ. He’s a submission over position grappler and it’s very rare he doesn’t aggressively pursue finishes if he can drag his opponent to the mat. Trevin Giles is primarily a boxer. He has a powerful jab and does a good job using it to set up his power shots. As effective as he is offensively, he sometimes gets overconfident and leaves his hands down. He’s a competent grappler both offensively and defensively, but there is no denying he’s most comfortable fighting on the feet. He has notable wins over Roman Dolidze, James Krause, and Ryan Spann. However, he is wildly inconsistent and it seems he’s lost some of the speed and athleticism he had early in his career. Giles can be dangerous on the feet here, but I expect Bonfim can hang with him in exchanges. From there, he should be able to get this fight to the mat where his strength and advanced BJJ ability should shine through. Gabriel Bonfim by Round One Submission
Main Card- Starts 10:00pm EST
Kevin Holland -150 vs Michael Chiesa +125
- Anthony: The main card opens with this welterweight fight between Kevin Holland and Michael Chiesa. It has been more than 18-months since Chiesa last fought, losing a decision to the then undefeated Sean Brady. At 35, he is losing speed fast. Chiesa is very slow to react on the feet and not very athletically skilled. I think a hiatus from competition will result in Chiesa looking even more meek than usual standing. Surely Chiesa has the edge if successful getting Holland to the mat but I find that a rather tough task in this atmosphere. He does have a very strong body lock that could prove effective today. Holland’s snappy jab and creative striking should keep Chiesa extremely reactive. I see him shooting quite often in desperation and eating a healthy dose of strikes in the process. We should see one way traffic in this fight regardless of who is to win. I feel confident taking Holland given his decisive edge striking and better decision making as of late. Hopefully he fights intelligently and stays out of Chiesa’s grasp. Kevin Holland by Decision
- Nick: Holland has developed a reputation as one of the more exciting fighters in the UFC. He talks constantly, both insulting and congratulating his opponents for the entire time he’s in the cage. He’s a rangy and creative striker with surprising power for his frame, but he has a clear hole in his game via his takedown defense. While he struggles at times against wrestlers, he has dangerous BJJ as a black belt under Travis Lutter. He’s in a difficult match-up here against a talented wrestler in Michael Chiesa. Chiesa is one of the more underrated grapplers in the UFC. He is coming off back-to-back losses to Sean Brady and Vicente Luque, but he is still 16-6 professionally with notable wins over Rafael dos Anjos, Beniel Dariush, and Neil Magny. Chiesa has an outstanding wrestling base that relies on highly technical body-lock style takedowns and his submission game is extremely creative. Chiesa’s stand-up continues to improve, but his powerful wrestling base and technical abilities on the mat are certainly his greatest strength. Chiesa averages nearly four takedowns per fifteen minutes and his BJJ is outstanding once he gets to the mat. Holland is going to have a considerable advantage on the feet here, but I don’t expect it’s enough to keep Chiesa from consistently taking him down. Michael Chiesa by Decision
Bobby Green -375 vs Tony Ferguson +280
- Anthony: Next is a fight at 155 pounds between Bobby Green and Tony Ferguson. This is a fun matchup for the fans between two veteran lightweights on tough losing streaks. El Cucuy has now lost five fights in a row after being submitted by Nate Diaz in August last year. He has looked very slow, moving much less explosively as had been the case in his storied career. Ferguson is still a highly skilled athlete, just much less dangerous or volatile as he once was. I liked his work early when fighting Diaz and do not think he is quite as washed as this betting line implies. Green is also on a losing skid with a no contest in his most recent showing. I am a bit surprised that Green can be so active since last December, seeing as how both recent losses saw him succumb to a knockout or head clash finish. He has taken just as much punishment as Feguson with both competing in more than twenty promotional bouts. I think Green has the better boxing and defensive skill of these two, but it will likely be a close decision nonetheless. Green has a tendency to taunt and showboat making fights a bit closer than they need to be. It is crazy to say that Tony has an edge over Green today but I also find these odds to be way wider than they need to be. There are ways Tony can win this bout against such a volatile foe. Tony Ferguson by Decision
- Nick: Green is a well-rounded fighter, but his shoulder-roll boxing style is what stands out when you watch him on film. He usually wins fights outstriking his opponents at boxing range. He throws a lot of volume with decent power on his shots, and he does a good job stringing together effective combinations. Green is certainly a quality boxer offensively, but he tends to keep his hands down more often than he should. He likes to talk to and taunt his opponents as he fights, which occasionally leaves him on the wrong end of dangerous exchanges. Tony Ferguson used to be one of the more dangerous pound-for-pound fighters on the entire roster. He became known for his devastating striking ability, vicious elbows, and excellent BJJ. He is now on a five fight losing streak for the first time in his career and he could be on his way out of the UFC with another loss here. Ferguson seems far gone from who he was when he was in his prime. He’s still a decent wrestler with creative striking ability, but he’s much slower and his reaction time has grown delayed from what it was earlier in his career. The line feels far too wide here, even with Ferguson on a dramatic decline. He should be the better wrestler here and as dangerous as Green is he isn’t known as a power puncher. If Ferguson can stay active and pressure Green with leg kicks he could steal a win from the boxer. However, I have to back Green as he’s been a far more active and consistent fighter of late. I really don’t like the price, but Green is the rightful favorite. Bobby Green by Decision
Marcos Rogerio de Lima -235 vs Derrick Lewis +180
- Anthony: Next is a matchup at heavyweight between Derrick Lewis and Marcos Rogerio de Lima. It has been a rough stretch for Lewis who has lost three consecutive fights by knockout. I am not very interested in backing him at this stage of his career, clearly looking slow and unwilling to take punishment. Lewis has always dealt with an injury to his back which is now intensified getting beat up on time and time again. De Lima is not a real top fifteen heavyweight but he does have the speed and power to hurt Derrick Lewis. He has won four of his last five fights, doing good work with low leg kicks and efficient overhangs. I imagine Rogerio de Lima secures this win quite easily by quickly pressuring Lewis and unloading. I imagine he will be the fresher fighter if this fight doesn’t end early. He warrants a moderate price tag like this against an opponent that is clearly fading out of his prime. Lewis still has the power to finish anyone in the world at heavyweight but I do not believe he is worth playing as the dog here today. Marcos Rogerio de Lima by Round One KO
- Nick: We have a fun heavyweight match-up here that is very likely to end inside the distance. Marcos Rogerio de Lima throws powerful strikes with fourteen of his twenty-one professional wins coming via KO. He always seems to come out strong, but as his fights wear on it’s very rare that his cardio holds up for the better part of fifteen minutes. He’s a decent grappler as well in terms of his BJJ,, but his gas tank usually prevents him from leaning on that part of his game consistently. de Lima is coming off back-to-back wins over Andrei Arlovski and Waldo Cortes-Acosta. His grappling advantage here is likely the reason he’s a favorite, but he’ll need to be very careful against an extremely dangerous opponent in Derrick Lewis. Derrick Lewis doesn’t throw much volume, but he is an extremely skilled counter-striker who has shown, on several occasions, that he has enough power to end any fight with a single punch. He’s a true knockout artist with twenty-one of his twenty-six professional wins coming via KO. He’s coming off three consecutive losses for the first time in his career, and there’s a decent chance he’s fighting for his roster spot in this match-up. The key for de Lima in this match-up will be to ground Derrick Lewis without getting caught with a strike. This is an extremely volatile match-up and one that could certainly go either way, but I actually like Lewis as the underdog. In spite of his recent skid, he’s been facing a considerably higher level of competition than de Lima has. This is a volatile fight, but he should have enough of a technical advantage here to land a timely counter early. Derrick Lewis by Round One KO
Jan Blachowicz -110 vs Alex Pereira -110
- Anthony: The co-main event is a light heavyweight matchup between former champions Jan Blachowicz and Alex Pereira. This is the first fight at 205 pounds for Poatan, a transition he should make without issue after towering over most competition at middleweight. Blachowicz has turned away newcomers to the division before and here he has a prime opportunity to impose his size and do so again. I think this will quite clearly be a fight won by Pereira if it is contested in the realm of kickboxing. Blachowicz has very good hooks and low kicks that can certainly hurt Pereira, but I fear his defense and speed will get him caught if he elects to stand and trade. Pereira may be a bit vulnerable coming off a knockout loss but I do not think Blachowicz has the striking ability to capitalize on that. He will want to instead wear on Pereira when possible and execute takedowns, bringing this fight to the mat. Blahowicz has already shared the cage with Pereira’s primary training partner Glover Teixiera. I think we see him struggle to get respect inside of boxing range, ultimately eating too many clean shots on his entries. Blachowicz is an unorthodox fighter and I find him a bit overvalued here at the current line. It may be a difficult fight to call but I would be betting on Pereira even at a wider line than this if I had to. Alex Pereira by Round Two KO
- Nick: Jan Blachowicz, is a well-rounded fighter with serious knockout power. The former light heavyweight champion has a solid grappling base, but on the ground he relies on brute strength more than advanced technical ability. Blachowicz’ chin has held up well of late and it seems he’s as good as he’s ever been. He has a powerful high kick which he used to brutalize Dominick Reyes when capturing the title and he can end a fight with any of his limbs. He can sometimes be a slow starter, which could prove troublesome here against a technical powerhouse in Pereira. Alex Pereira carries KO power in all of his limbs. He moves fluidly on the feet. He has outstanding footwork and head movement and in terms of overall technical ability there’s no denying he’s one of the best strikers on the roster. There is a major hole in his game as he has very little grappling ability, but he’s been training under Glover Teixiera so there’s a good chance he’ll continue to show improvements on the mat. Pereira is coming off a KO loss to Israel Adesanya that cost him the middleweight title. He’ll be moving up to light heavyweight and debuting in the division in this match-up, but many feel this is where he should have been fighting all along. I’ve gone back and forth on this pick and this is certainly a fight I could see going either way. However, this feels like a fight Blachowicz should win. As long as he avoids Pereira’s bigger shots, he should be able to mix in his grappling on his way to a decision. Jan Blachowicz by Decision
Dustin Poirier -150 vs Justin Gaethje +125
- Anthony: The main event is a fight for the BMF Title as Justin Gathje and Dustin Poirier run back their classic brawl from 2018. The first encounter saw Poirier emerge victorious in round number four after clipping Gathje and swarming for the finish. Poirier’s boxing proved to be much more crisp but Gathje still did well trading with him and landing extremely heavy kicks on Dustin’s legs. While both men have evolved in terms of striking over these past few years we are likely to see a similar clash in the center today. Gathje will be pressuring Poirer and looking to attack the lead leg while Poirier can fight his usual style, rolling with punches and landing the better counter shots. Gaethje got the better of most exchanges as these two began to settle in, and I think that could be the case again today. He is looking faster and stronger than ever before, beating Rafael Fiziev convincingly just four months ago. He should beat Poirier in most clinch exchanges with his elbows and uppercuts. While Poirier has the better defense, Gaethje seemingly has the better chin and I trust him to continue throwing out offense as this gets sloppy late. I really consider this fight a coin flip so getting plus money on Gaethje is how I’ll play it. He should invest in attacking Dustin’s legs early, giving him a head start here. I like that he is fighting in Salt Lake City given his training comes in Denver at elevation. Fight of the Night wars are exactly where Gaethje does his best work. Justin Gaethje by Round Three KO
- Nick: Poirier is a crisp boxer with an excellent understanding of angles. He throws fast combinations and he does a good job keeping pressure on his opponents. We have seen Poirier time and time again start to come alive as a fight wears into the middle and later rounds. Justin Gaethje is a brawler. His kill-or-be-killed style has landed him Fight of the Night or Performance of the Night bonuses in nine of his eleven bouts in the UFC. He’s continued to improve in terms of his technical ability, but there’s no denying his will to engage in a dangerous firefight. Gaethje is coming off an impressive win over a rising prospect in Rafael Fiziev. He’s in a similar match-up this time around against a technically advanced and dangerous striker in Dustin Poirier. However, this time he’ll be fighting a five round fight. Gaethje lands 7.38 significant strikes per minute, but he also absorbs 7.66. Dustin lands 5.51 per minute, but he only absorbs 4.25. Gaethje is going to be aggressive here, but Poirier should have a considerable technical advantage defensively. Both of these fighters have exceptional cardio and durability, so landing cleaning strikes and taking less damage over five rounds should be enough for Porier to eventually pull away. This is a low confidence play, but I do see Poirier as the rightful favorite. Dustin Poirier by Round Four KO
-Anthony Marro
Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_
-Nick Marro
Twitter: @NickMarroDFS
Photo: UFC.com