UFC 288 Preview & Analysis

UFC 288: Sterling vs Cejudo – 5.6.2023 – Fight Predictions and Analysis

Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC 288: Sterling vs Cejudo. We have a great card live this evening from the Prudential Center, headlined by the world bantamweight championship. Our analysis includes a pick for every bout from Dynes Sports contributors Anthony Marro and Nicholas Marro.

As coverage continues, we will keep our records up to date below. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick though as records will not reflect confidence. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few.

Current Record

Anthony: 94-73-3 (Last Year 320-187-3, 63%)
Nick: 109-58-3 (Last Year 324-183-3, 64%)

*Fight odds were last updated from Bet99 on 5-6-2023 at 1am EST

Early Prelims- Start 6:30pm EST

Claudio Ribiero -185 vs Joseph Holmes +145

Anthony: The card today opens with a matchup between Claudio Ribiero and Joseph Holmes. Holmes was three pounds heavy at weigh-ins yesterday and now forfeiting a portion of his fight purse as a result. He is a rather interesting prospect given his style and resume. Holmes will be in pursuit of the takedown here against an opponent in Ribiero that hits hard and finds comfort competing on the feet. Ribiero appears stronger and thicker than Holmes, causing me to expect him to be the man controlling this octagon. Sometimes Ribiero will struggle keeping his output consistent, but I do not think Holmes will last a full fifteen minutes in the cage with him today. While neither is all that developed in terms of IQ or physical skill, Holmes appears to be a bit more volatile and reckless in his pursuit of victory. Claudio Ribiero by Round Three KO
Nick: Ribeiro was awarded a UFC contract off of a Contender Series win via KO over Iván Valenzuela, during an exchange that came just 25 seconds into his fight. He showed his exceptional power in that spot, but his defense seemed questionable at best. He’s very athletic and there is no denying his power, but in terms of technical ability it seems he’s still far from developed. His reckless style cost him in his UFC debut, a loss via KO to Abdul Razak Alhassan. He had moments early in that fight, but his lack of defense ultimately resulted in his first loss since 2018. Holmes is fairly well-rounded, but primarily a grappler with six of his eight professional wins coming via submission. He has shown KO power, but he really hasn’t found much success against top level competition. He has decent striking ability at range, but he struggles to string together effective combinations.Holmes is skilled enough to potentially pull off an upset here, but he’ll need to prioritize his grappling. He missed weight for this fight, so it’s tough to know how good of a camp he’s coming out of. This is an extremely low level match-up and thus a low confidence pick, but I’ll back Ribiero to KO Holmes before this fight hits the mat. Claudio Ribiero by Round One KO

Ikram Aliskerov -200 vs Phil Hawes +160

Anthony: Next is a bout at middleweight between Ikram Aliskerov and Phil Hawes. This is the UFC debut for Aliskerov who enters 13-1 as a pro. While Aliskerov is a bit less experienced than Hawes in MMA, he is a talented Sambo practitioner with very high level ground skills. With five wins by submission already accrued, Aliskerov will certainly look to take down Hawes and make his name known. Hawes does have excellent takedown defense and a base that rarely leaves him vulnerable, I just worry about his ability to keep this a boxing match late if he does begin to tire out. He has the much faster hands than Aliskerov and one of the highest accuracy rates in company history. I am not tempted to bet much on Hawes coming off his last loss, but it does appear to be a favorable matchup here today facing the Russian. Phil Hawes by Decision
Nick: Ikram Aliskerov will be making his UFC debut here, coming off an impressive win via first round kimura over Mario Sousa. Aliskerov is 13-1 professionally, with his only loss coming to Khamzat Chimaev back in 2019. He’s primarily a grappler, with five wins coming via submission and four coming via KO. He carries decent power on the feet, but his striking is far from technical as he throws mostly hooks and chases knockouts without much concern for defense. Phil Hawes is mostly known for his KO power, but he’s also an effective wrestler. Hawes does a good job mixing his kicks into his combinations. He’s very athletic with sneaky explosiveness, but his gas tank and durability are both major question marks. Hawes is coming off a brutal KO loss to Roman Dolidze, and he’s lost two of his last three fights. Hawes’ skills and athleticism are undeniable, but he’s wildly inconsistent so it’s tough to know how he’ll look on any given night. This is a tough match-up to call as Aliskerov is making a major step up in level of competition and Hawes is wildly inconsistent. The line does feel wide, but I do see Aliskerov as the rightful favorite. As long as he stays out of danger here early I expect he can take over as this fight wears on. Ikram Aliskerov by Round Two Submission

Parker Porter -175 vs Braxton Smith +140

Anthony: This should be a fun heavyweight matchup between Parker Porter and Braxton Smith. It is the UFC debut for Smith who is still extremely green in terms of total cage experience. The former football player accrued all five of his professional wins in just under one year of action. He is a big man with extreme power, throwing huge overhangs and hurting opponents quickly. Unfortunately, all of this competition for Smith pales in comparison to most other heavyweights. He has beaten complete nobodies and while Porter is certainly not a household name, he has proven to be a capable fighter, winning bouts inside of the UFC. Porter will throw with a higher volume and more consistent pace than Smith. While Smith may be dangerous in the fight’s first five minutes I see Porter taking over as this runs late, grinding on Smith and completely depleting his gas tank. I see Porter securing the victory by either late knockout or a submission. Porter does have a clear edge grappling in this fight that he may elect to utilize as needed. Parker Porter by Round Three Submission
Nick: This is a low-level match-up featuring two plodding heavyweights. There’s really nothing exciting about Porter when you watch him on film, but he does have power in his strikes and a surprisingly decent gas tank given his visible lack of athleticism. Porter has shown solid durability and surprisingly technical boxing ability so far in the UFC. Braxton Smith will be making his UFC debut here, coming off a KO win over Jakori Savage at Peak Fighting 27. Smith has KO power, as most heavyweights do, but his striking is far from technical and he really hasn’t found any success against quality competition. I like Porter to win here as he has the better cardio, durability and grappling ability. That being said, this is a low-level heavyweight match-up where anything can happen. Anyone fighting in this division has a puncher’s chance given their size and strength. I won’t be investing heavily here, but I’ll take Porter to weather the early storm and then work Smith for a finish. Parker Porter by Round Two KO

Preliminary Card- Starts 8:00pm EST

Marina Rodriguez -130 vs Virna Jandiroba +110

Anthony: The preliminary card begins with strawweights Marina Rodriguez and Virna Jandiroba. This is a classic striker versus grappler matchup with Jandiroba looking to ground Rodriguez and find her way into a winning position. She did very well nullifying the offensive firepower of Angela Hill in her last octagon appearance, scoring three takedowns and seven minutes of control time. In a pick’em fight I certainly think Jandiroba has the tools to earn a victory, I just view her a bit submission dependent in terms of the way she could win. Judges will favor the high volume striking of Rodriguez if these are back and forth rounds. Rodriguez can likely keep distance from Jandiroba for some portions of this bout. She also defends 65 percent of opponent takedowns, giving me a bit more confidence in picking her. It is a very tough matchup to call but give me the far cleaner striker. Marina Rodriguez by Decision
Nick: This is a high-level women’s matchup between two of the division’s more interesting contenders. Rodriguez is a powerful Muay Thai striker. She’s found success against elite competition, striking effectively both at range and in the clinch. Jandiroba is most comfortable on the mat as a decorated BJJ black belt, but her entries for takedowns and her general wrestling ability can leave a lot to be desired. Virna Jandiroba is more than willing to eat punches to throw them. She does a good job keeping pressure on her opponents and her cardio has mostly held up at the UFC level. Her striking isn’t very refined, but she throws frequently enough to keep most of her opponents on the defensive. When this fight is standing, Rodriguez is going to have a considerable advantage. She is excellent in the clinch, and she lands more than five significant strikes per minute. If this fight hits the mat, Vandiroba should have the clear advantage as we’ve seen Rodriguez struggle to get back to her feet once she’s grounded. Jandiroba is very live as an underdog here, especially if she can take this fight to the mat. That being said, I expect Rodriguez to mostly keep things standing where she should win the majority of exchanges. Marina Rodriguez by Decision

Khaos Williams -335 vs Ronaldo Bedoya +260

Anthony: This is an exciting welterweight matchup between Khaos Williams and Ronaldo Bedoya. It is the UFC debut for Bedoya who steps into the cage today at the age of 36. The striker trains at Chute Box with the likes of Charles Oliveira and often fights with a similar, aggressive style. Bedoya has displayed good kickboxing and rather solid muay thai skills, but the victories upon reflection are not against very steep competition at all. Williams has faced very high caliber UFC fighters before and he is without a doubt the more trustworthy side of this explosive matchup. The defense for Khaos is far better than that of Bedoya who often absorbs strikes well despite getting hit a lot. Given the immense power we have seen Williams display, it seems likely a hard shot will eventually put down Bedoya as these two begin to exchange. I do not see this fight going more than two rounds and feel rather confident backing the large favorite Williams to score himself a finish. Khaos Williams by Round Two KO
Nick: Ronaldo Bedoya will be making his UFC debut here, coming off a submission win over Pablo Dhorta at FFC 49. He is 14-1 professionally with four wins coming via KO and three coming via submission. He’s an extremely aggressive striker with a creative arsenal of attacks. Unfortunately, he’s been given an extremely tough match-up in his promotional debut. Williams is growing a reputation as a knockout artist, but he has a decent wrestling base which is evident by his success on the regional scene. He’s coming off a hard fought decision loss to Randy Brown, but he is 13-3 professionally and 4-2 in the UFC. Williams has true KO power, he’s a technical striker both offensively and defensively and he’s going to be the much bigger fighter in this match-up. As long as he’s defensively sound early, he should catch Bedoya on a counter and put him away with style. Khaos Williams by Round One KO

Kennedy Nzechukwu -190 vs Devin Clark +150

Anthony: Next is a light heavyweight contest between Kennedy Nzechukwu and Devin Clark. This is a tough fight to call between two guys I view as rather volatile. Nzechukwu has looked far improved as of late, improving in terms of his output and aggression while still doing very well focusing on the defensive early. An opponent like Clark will test Nzechukwu in the more gritty areas of a fight than he is accustomed to, addressing takedowns and fighting closer inside the pocket. While Clark is an explosive athlete with very good wrestling, I see a lack of technical skill when comparing his striking to that of Nzechukwu. Clark is going to try and engage early with Nzechukwu but rarely will the first round be his best. With such a long frame Nzechukwu should effectively stuff most of Clarks takedown attempts. I do think Nzechukwu gets his hand raised by pairing a consistent workrate with the good defense we are accustomed to seeing. Kennedy Nzechukwu by Decision
Nick: The biggest knock on Nzechukwu is his low output and tendency to stay excessively conservative. He often spends too much time just waiting for fights to come to him. He’s a dangerous striker and technically sound offensively, but his extreme tentativeness prevents him from dominating inferior opponents. He is coming off an impressive win via KO over Ion Cutelaba, a fight in which he did show another level of aggression. Devin Clark has some power in his strikes but his hands move slowly. As a result, his chance at a KO is generally slim against high-level competition. He does a good job slowing fights down and grinding his opponents up against the cage, but his grappling in the center of the cage (both offensively and defensively) are mediocre at best. Clark recently shifted camps to Elevation Fight Team in Colorado. Given his extensive training at high altitudes, I expect his endurance should continue to be a weapon for him moving forward. Both of these fighters are generally inconsistent, which makes this a tough fight to call. Another low confidence play here, but I will side with the value on Clark. I expect he’ll be able to grind Nzechukwu up against the cage and control position for the majority of this fight. Devin Clark by Decision

Drew Dober -225 vs Matt Frevola +180

Anthony: The featured prelim is a great lightweight matchup between Matt Frevola and Drew Dober. Both of these brawlers are accustomed to high action performances, often resulting in the Fight of the Night. Frevola has been a man possessed in his recent few bouts, quickly finishing both Ottman Azaitar and Genaro Valdez. I think he has the advantage in this fight if he would elect to wrestle, I just do not imagine that is the game plan as he competes in front of the hometown crowd. In what is likely a back and forth scrap, Dober’s chin and punching power should ultimately earn him a victory. He has earned three straight wins by knockout and I think rather quickly he will be able to drop Frevola here today. Frevola’s best work is done moving forward, a tough task against an opponent who sits down on his shots like this. Drew Dober by Round One KO
Nick: This is a Fight of the Night candidate and easily one of the more intriguing fights we have on this card. Drew Dober has improved dramatically over his last few fights. He throws extremely powerful and precise strikes, his timing seems better than ever and the power in his counters make him a threat against almost anyone on the feet. He’s coming off three straight wins via KO over relatively tough competition, and he’ll be looking to build on that momentum here against another fighter in Frevola with a fan friendly style. Frevola is fairly well-rounded, but his durability can be considered a weakness as he was KO’d in two of his three professional losses. He’s coming off back to back wins via KO, but in this particular match-up he would be wise to lean on a grappling heavy gameplan. Frevola is going to be dangerous early, but I don’t see him matching Dober in terms of speed or accuracy on the feet. He could catch Dober with something in a barrage, but it’s very rare we see Dober fail to defend against powerful strikers. This is a close fight to call, but I’m siding with Dober. His takedown defense should be enough to mostly keep this fight on the feet, where I expect his more refined striking and superior durability to shine through. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Frevola win a grappling heavy decision, but it seems more likely Dober can keep this fight standing long enough to find his chin. Drew Dober by Round Two KO

Main Card- Starts 10:00pm EST

Charles Jourdain -175 vs Kron Gracie +140

Anthony: The main card opens with a fight between featherweights Charles Jourdain and Kron Gracie. It has been nearly four years since Gracie was last in action, losing a decision to Cub Swanson. Gracie is of course a credentialed jiu jitsu practitioner, upholding the family lineage and embracing the mentality needed to fight at this level. He will however be fighting an uphill battle today against a very active and athletic Jourdain. This classic matchup between striker and grappler will play out as such. If Gracie is able to get sustained control of Jourdain for any point of this bout he is likely going to win by submission. My prediction is that Jourdain instead defends against Gracie’s unorthodox takedown attempts and really picks him apart on the feet. Gracie is not afraid to move forward and throw his own strikes but the technique is really abysmal. I do not expect to see major corrections in his stand up skill despite the extended hiatus he had taken. Jourdain should be smart enough to keep this fight standing and avoid the positions he could end up getting caught. Charles Jourdain by Round Two KO
Nick: Jourdain has flashed knockout power, which was fully on display in his UFC debut against Doo Ho Choi. He throws a wide range of flashy strikes, pushing an excellent pace and controlling the cage against lower-level opponents. He’s coming off a hard fought loss to Nathaniel Wood and he’s coming off back-to-back losses for the first time in his career. Kron Gracie has been out of action since October of 2019. He is 5-1 professionally with all five of those wins coming via submission. As the son of Rickson Gracie and the grandson of Helio Gracie, it should come as no surprise that he has truly elite BJJ ability. His game is fairly one dimensional, but whenever he can ground his opponent he is very live for a quick submission finish. On the feet, his durability is his greatest strength. Jourdain should outclass him significantly in exchanges, but I expect Gracie can weather his heavier strikes as he closes distance and looks for takedowns. This is a tough fight to call and one I could certainly see going either way. If Gracie relies on a grappling heavy gameplan I’m fairly confident he could pull off an upset. Jourdain has just a 48% takedown defense in the UFC. Kron Gracie by Round One Submission

Movsar Evloev –900 vs Diego Lopes +550

Anthony: Next is a matchup at featherweight between Movsar Evloev and Diego Lopes. It is the UFC debut for Lopes who steps in on short notice for the injured Bryce Mitchell. This is a young man with a rather solid resume, winning fights in impressive fashion and sharing the cage with some promotional veterans before. He is a bit of a brawler, usually doing his best work in the first round of fights. Lopes is a good wrestler with quite solid jiu jitsu, but I see that ground game being completely nullified by the elite top pressure of Evloev. We have seen Evloev win plenty of fights before by out wrestling and controlling his opponents. The undefeated prospect has become much scarier as his striking has improved, and I see him having little trouble here beating Lopes. The one knock on Evloev is his tendency to fight to a decision, taking very few risks over the course of each fight. Certainly a -900 should fight with an intelligent gameplan, I just warn you not to be surprised if this does go a full fifteen minutes. Movsar Evloev by Decision
Nick: Mosvar Evloev is an extremely talented featherweight prospect. He comes into this match-up at an undefeated 16-0 with notable wins over Dan Ige, Hakeem Dawodu, Seung Woo Choi, and Nick Lentz. Evloev was originally scheduled to take on another highly-regarded prospect in Bryce Mitchell here, but with Mitchell forced to pull out due to injury Diego Lopes will be taking this fight on less than one week’s notice. Lopes is 21-5 professionally with eight wins coming via KO and eleven coming via submission. He’s primarily a grappler with slick BJJ, but he really hasn’t been tested against anyone near the level of Evloev. The line is wide, but it really should be. Lopes’ only chance is an early submission, but Evloev is too skilled to allow that to happen. He should dominate here and remain undefeated. Movsar Evloev by Round Two KO

Jessica Andrade -185 vs Yan Xiaonan +145

Anthony: The featured bout is a women’s strawweight contest between Yan Xiaonan and Jessica Andrade. I really like Andrade staying active, fighting twice already in 2023. She lost in her most recent appearance to Erin Blanchfield but it is quite apparent that Blanchfield is a real contender at 125 pounds. Moving back to strawweight is great news for Andrade given the edge in power she has over nearly every opponent she faces. Xiaonan will look to use her length here to keep Andrade at the end of her punches and out of range from brawling. Inside of the pocket Andrade figures to have a lot of success, working the exposed body of Xiaonan and getting the more solid punches through her guard. I see it being a very competitive kickboxing matchup, but Andrade will have the edge if this fight hits the mat. Her jiu jitsu is much better than that of Xiaonan and while Andrade may not be in pursuit of many takedowns, I still see her controlling things whenever these two get into scrambles. She is a reasonable bet at -185 bouncing back from a loss and having quite a few paths to victory. A majority of Andrade’s losses have come to title challengers or eventual champions. Jessica Andrade by Decision
Nick: Xiaonan is a gifted striker who can fight at a fast and effective pace. She’s coming off an impressive win over a dangerous grappler in Mackenzie Dern, but prior to that she lost back-to-back fights for the first time in her career. Andrade fights out of a compact stance and she’s easily one of the most powerful punchers in WMMA. She lands nearly 7 significant strikes per minute in the UFC. Outside of her recent loss to Erin Blanchfield, which came on very short notice, her only professional losses had come against championship level opponents. Both of these fighters prefer to stand and trade and find most of their success overpowering and overwhelming their opponents. That being said, Andrade has executed this gameplan at a much higher level of competition. I see Xiaonan as the more technical striker in this match-up, but I expect Andrade can close the technical skill gap with her pure power and aggression. Andrade has another advantage in her overall grappling ability. Neither are great defensively, but we’ve seen Andrade score huge slam takedowns against a wide range of opponents. A tricky fight to call given Andrade’s recent inconsistencies, but I do see her as the rightful favorite. Jessica Andrade by Decision

Gilbert Burns -130 vs Belal Muhammad +110

Anthony: The co-main event will be a five round bout between welterweights Gilbert Burns and Belal Muhammad. Very rarely do we get such a high level fight on short notice but both men decided to step up and compete today for a chance at gold in their next appearance. Betting against Muhammad has cost me quite a bit on this nine fight unbeaten streak. He is a fighter with great pressure, cardio and volume that often grinds his way to a win by any means necessary. We usually see Muhammad focus largely on clinching or wrestling in order to secure minutes and rounds. He also is very good at outlanding his opponents standing, even though the punching power is a minimal threat. It is not an aesthetically pleasing style yet it works to great effect. I do believe Muhammad has his grappling nullified in this matchup with a world class BJJ practitioner such as Burns. Durinho secured a huge win just five weeks ago beating up Jorge Masvidal. Burns is willing to take more risks than Muhammad given his power when striking and ability to finish fights on the mat. I expect him to start quickly here, keeping the fight in positions he can win and hurting Muhammad with a few big hooks. I do think Muhammad will be the sharper fighter in rounds four and five, but Burns can likely bank early rounds or put meaningful damage on his man at some point prior. It should be a very competitive matchup but I do slightly favor the more active and proven Burns. Gilbert Burns by Decision
Nick: Burns is an extremely talented grappler with outstanding BJJ ability. His striking continues to improve every time we see him fight, but he is looking to ground his opponents in most of his match-ups. He has nine professional wins via submission and seven via KO. He is most recently coming off a dominant win via decision over Jorge Masvidal, and prior to that an impressive win over Neil Magny via first round arm triangle. Muhammad has a solid wrestling base and excellent weight distribution when he finds himself on top of his opponents. He’s not really a submission threat, but he’s very tough to stand up against once an opponent is grounded. His stand-up continues to improve, but his greatest strength as a fighter is his pressure and cardio. He never really seems to fade and he does a good job breaking his opponents down with continuous offense. He’s coming off an uncharacteristic win over Sean Brady via KO. It was a major development to see Muhammad win on the feet against a solid opponent, which certainly helps his outlook as a top contender moving forward. This is a very difficult fight to call and one that could certainly go either way. If this was a three rounder I’d back Burns with confidence, but since this is a five round fight I find myself favoring Muhammad. He should be able to hang with Burns early here and then pull away as this fight enters the later rounds. My confidence is low, but I’ll take a stab on the underdog. Belal Muhammad by Decision

Henry Cejudo -120 vs Aljamain Sterling +100

Anthony: This card concludes with a fight for gold between bantamweights Henry Cejudo and Aljamain Sterling. The current champion fights out of Cortland, New York with the team at Serra Longo BJJ. Sterling put on stellar performances in both previous title defenses, beating former champions Petr Yan and T.J. Dillashaw. He is the best grappler in the division pairing elite jiu jitsu with one of the bigger frames at 135 pounds. However, Cejudo is one of the sport’s best wrestlers and I see his ability to scramble and defend takedowns being a huge factor deciding this fight. Sterling will be working to get to the back of Cejudo at any juncture he can, but doing so is a far greater challenge than Aljo had when facing previous foes. Cejudo is extremely quick and far more technically skilled striking in comparison to Sterling. Sure Cejudo may start sloppy after such an extended hiatus but I do believe he takes over the later this fight gets. Early leg kicks should limit Sterling’s mobility and ability to complete takedown attempts. Cejudo will gain momentum with every punch landed and shot stuffed, taxing Sterling both mentally and physically. I am a bit concerned regarding Sterling’s cardiovascular strength after what appeared to be a very intense weight cut. A fast submission seems to be his clearest path to victory but I seriously doubt Sterling’s ability to wallop an Olympic gold medalist on the mat. It will not be a one-sided affair either way and for that reason Cejudo is the safe bet. We have seen Henry rise to the occasion many times before and his Fight IQ is on another level. He is simply a winner, and I anticipate he wins again tonight. And New. Henry Cejudo by Round Three KO
Nick: Sterling usually comes out extremely aggressively. His strikes don’t pack a ton of power, but he’s extremely accurate and does a good job frustrating his opponents at range with his unconventional style. He is primarily a wrestler with excellent takedown ability and BJJ. His best position is on his opponents’ back(s), which was evident in his first title defense, a decision win over Petr Yan. He is most recently coming off a dominant win via KO over TJ Dillashaw, but it came out after the fight that Dillashaw’s shoulder was already injured badly. Henry Cejudo will be returning from retirement here, having been out of action since May of 2009. He’s technically on a six-fight win-streak, with the last four wins coming in five round championship bouts. Cejudo is primarily a wrestler, known for winning a Gold medal at the 2008 Summer Olympics. He’s also a highly technical boxer with underrated ability on the feet. He does a good job closing distance and stringing together combinations. Sterling is going to have a considerable reach advantage here, but Cejudo should be able to find ways into the pocket where his superior boxing should shine through. Cejudo is by far the most talented wrestler Sterling has ever faced, so I don’t expect he’ll be able to execute a grappling heavy gameplan here either. Given the long layoff it’s tough to get overly confident in backing Cejudo, but I expect he’ll have Sterling covered no matter where this one goes. I expect this fight to mostly take place on the feet where he’ll win the majority of exchanges. He should also have a cardio advantage in this match-up. And New. Henry Cejudo by Decision

-Anthony Marro

Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_

-Nick Marro

Twitter: @NickMarroDFS

Photo: UFC.com