UFC Vegas 70 Preview & Predictions

UFC Vegas 70: Krylov vs Spann – 2.25.2023 – Fight Predictions and Analysis

Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC Vegas 70: Krylov vs Spann. This card concludes the promotion’s February calendar as we head into a stacked schedule of bouts in March. Our analysis includes a pick for every bout from Dynes Sports contributors Anthony Marro and Nicholas Marro.

As coverage continues, we will keep our records up to date below. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick though as records will not reflect confidence. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few.

Current Record

Anthony: 34-25-2 (Last Year 320-187-3, 63%)
Nick: 42-17-2 (Last Year 324-183-3, 64%)

*Fight odds were last updated from Bet99 on 2-24-2023 at 10pm EST

Preliminary Card- Starts 4:30pm EST

Nurullo Aliev -190 vs Rafael Alves +155

Anthony: Opening the card is this bout at lightweight between Nurullo Aliev and Rafael Alves. This is the UFC debut for Aliev who enters undefeated at 8-0. He is a high pressure grappler from Tajikistan with a style focused on suffocating his opponents. On Dana White’s Contender Series this September, Aliev accrued four minutes of control time before finding the first round finish of Josh Wick. Excellent combat sambo is paired with high level wrestling, making Aliev a threat to run through a lot of this division’s strikers. Alves is an explosive and seasoned opponent that should provide a tough test for the oncoming prospect, but I do think Aliev ends up with this victory. While Alves is more technically sound on the feet, Aliev has fast hands and a gameplan to avoid prolonged exchanges standing. He is going to test the 60 percent takedown defense of Alves and I see a large portion of this bout being fought on the mat. The one clear path for Alves is guillotine choke, a submission he has completed in both previous UFC victories. But as long as he keeps his neck out of trouble, Aliev should wrestle his way to a convincing win here. Nurullo Aliev by Decision
Nick: Nurulio Aliev will be making his UFC debut here, coming off a dominant Contender Series win by knockout over Josh Wick. Aliev is 8-0 professionally, with quality regional wins for AMC and Eagle FC. He’s primarily a wrestler, with solid submission ability and excellent cardio. He’s fighting out of Tajikistan, but he seems to have a similar high-pressure chain wrestling style that we see in fighters coming out of Dagestan and Chechnya. Alves is a former Titan FC Lightweight Champ. He throws extremely powerful strikes, but he tends to telegraph them at times and he throws mostly singular shots or basic 1-2 type combinations. He has a 1-2 record in the UFC, but he’s faced an elite level of competition scoring a win over Marc Diakiese and falling to two ranked opponents in Drew Dober and Damir Ismagulov. He can be easy to takedown, but he has solid BJJ offensively. He has a very tight guillotine and even against top competition, he has shown to be excellent in most scrambles. As talented as he is, his cardio seems to fail him at times if he can’t finish his opponents quickly. This is a very tough fight to call as Aliev has not yet been tested against competition on the level of Alves. That being said, I do see him as the rightful favorite. Alves will be dangerous early, but he’s fairly easy to take down. As long as Aliev’s defense is sound, he should be able to weather that early storm and then lean on his grappling as he grinds Alves out for a decision. Nurullo Aliev by Decision

Joe Solecki -600 vs Carl Deaton +400

Anthony: Next is another lightweight bout with Joe Solecki fighting Carl Deaton. This was a matchup made on short notice as Solecki had originally been booked to face Benoit Saint-Denis last weekend. Now he will face Carl Deaton III, a veteran who has fought professionally for twelve years. While not always in the cage with upper echelon competition, Deaton has faced a few decent names and competed once in the PFL. He is a product of American Top Team and while the fundamentals seem to be there, I am not a huge fan of his striking technique. Deaton often puts himself in positions to be hit. He will want to brawl with Solecki on the feet today but I think we see him outclassed quite easily when this fight does hit the mat. Solecki has excellent jiu jitsu and a top pressure not dissimilar to Aliev who fights in the bout prior. He should be able to find the back of Deaton with relative ease, especially when comparing this opponent to some of the previous Solecki has already backpacked or mounted. With far more impressive victories already in the rearview for Solecki, I think he proves tonight he is on a far higher level than Deaton. Joe Solecki by Round Two Submission
Nick: Solecki is an extremely well-rounded prospect who finds most of his success in grappling exchanges. He’s a long and strong wrestler whose striking continues to show improvement, but in most of his fights he looks to either grind his opponents up against the cage or win by controlling them on the mat. Solecki is 4-1 under the UFC banner and he has shown he has the skills both offensively and defensively to make some noise in a loaded 155 pound division. Carl Deaton will be making his UFC debut here, but he’s 4-years older than Solecki with a 17-5 record. He has a lot of quality regional experience, but it is a bit telling it has taken him this long to get the call up to a big promotion. Deaton is decent everywhere, but his toughness and grit are what have allowed him to find success professionally. He has a knack for weaponizing his cardio and outlasting his opponents, but he has no real singular stand out skill when you watch him on film. Deaton is tough and can be dangerous on the feet, but Solecki should have his way with him in grappling exchanges. The line does feel a bit wider than it should here, but Solecki is the pick. Joe Solecki by Round Three Submission

Charles Johnson -170 vs Ode Osbourne +140

Anthony: This should be a good matchup between Charles Johnson and Ode Osbourne. We were scheduled to see Osbourne face Denys Bondar here today but we got news of this opponent change more than a week ago. Johnson steps in just a month removed from finishing Jimmy Flick on the first card of 2023. He has been extremely active since signing with the promotion and appears to have the tools necessary to win in a fight like this. Johnson is an agile striker, working well in both stances and having great speed even for the flyweight division. This is a 130-pound catchweight bout, but nonetheless he tends to push a pace better than Osbourne is capable of after cutting weight the day before. Durability is a concern in backing Osbourne but I expect him to eat Johnson’s power shots far better than Flick was capable. Osbourne is however less sound defensively than Johnson, eating close to five significant strikes per minute. He will look to utilize his reach and counter Johsnon often, but I see Osbourne largely fighting from behind here tonight. He is live to win by knockout but I feel that is his clearest path to victory against a more well rounded opponent like this. I won’t be getting involved much at the current odds but I am expecting Johnson to get his hand raised. Charles Johnson by Decision
Nick: Charles Johnson is a former LFA flyweight champion. He’s a technically skilled boxer with effective defensive wrestling ability. He’s well-rounded, but he’s tough to gauge in terms of his overall talent as he hasn’t been tested extensively against top level competition. He is 2-1 in the UFC, coming off an impressive win via ground-and-pound KO over Jimmy Flick. He’s been mostly facing grapplers since he signed to the promotion, so it’s no surprise to see him as a sizable favorite here against another striker in Osbourne. Osbourne is inexperienced, but he has crisp striking and he does an excellent job switching stances. He has a powerful back-step power kick; he does a good job diversifying his strikes, and more often than not he’s able to lean on his athleticism to drown his opponents. He works well at range, but he sometimes leaves himself open to counters in exchanges. Osbourne was cruising his last time out until he was ultimately caught and KO’d by a Tyson Nam counter. Osbourne will push the pace early here, but once Johnson finds his timing I expect he can win most exchanges at range. Another close match-up, but I see Johnson as the rightful favorite given his advantages in power and overall technical ability on the feet. Charles Johnson by Round Two KO

Jordan Leavitt -110 vs Victor Martinez -110

Anthony: Next is a matchup at lightweight with Jordan Leavitt facing Victor Martinez. This fight seems appropriately lined as a pick’em given the clash of styles I am expecting we see. Martinez is primarily a striker, having very fast and powerful hands. He is going to beat Leavitt in boxing exchanges here on the feet given his agility and better defensive awareness. However, Leavitt will have a decisive advantage if and when this bout hits the mat. Martinez has struggled previously when put onto his back and Leavitt has above average offensive grappling that he will surely be looking to utilize. The 31-year-old Martinez has been submitted twice prior and I believe that a purple belt of Leavitt’s caliber could find a finish of him here. While Leavitt is not all that flashy, he is economical and the only real blemish on his resume is a loss to rising star Paddy Pimblett. He will win this bout if he stays glued to Martinez, not allowing him to get his timing established on the feet. Jordan Leavitt by Round Two Submission
Nick: Jordan Leavitt is primarily a grappler. He has a strong wrestling base and does an excellent job keeping pressure on his opponents. He trains out of a decent camp via Syndicate MMA. He has excellent cardio, and while his strikes don’t do much damage his unorthodox style does seem to be enough to keep him out of serious trouble. Leavitt is coming off an ugly loss to hyped prospect Paddy Pimblett. He’ll be looking to get back in the win column here against an opponent in Martinez who has been out of action since September of 2021. Victor Martinez will be making his UFC debut here, coming off a Contender Series win over Jacob Rosales. Rosales has solid regional experience fighting for Fury FC and Combate. He’s an aggressive striker who carries surprising power for his frame. He has decent BJJ, but it seems he’s mostly content to stand and trade in most match-ups. This is a tough fight to call as it’s been a long time since we’ve seen Martinez in action. I slightly prefer Leavitt who should have a clear wrestling and cardio advantage here. Jordan Leavitt by Round Two Submission

Gabriella Fernandes -130 vs Jasmine Jasudavicius +105

Anthony: This is a women’s flyweight bout between Jasmine Jasudavicius and Gabriella Fernandes. It is the UFC debut for Fernandes who signed off an impressive winning streak in LFA. She is a striker who uses her range well and attacks opponents with a wide arsenal of weapons from the southpaw stance. I certainly see her finding success behind her jab and while kickboxing Jasudavicius, but there are some positions in the clinch that Fernandes still appears a bit green. Fernandes has also struggled defending the takedown in her career thus far and Jasudavicius is a stylistic matchup that does not suit her. The Canadian averages two takedowns per fight and should be able to control the less experienced Fernandes if successful getting this bout to the mat. The initial takedown defense for Fernandes is not atrocious but it is instead the effort getting back up onto the feet that is causing me to fade her. The better established Jasudavicius should find that takedown and earn the win here today. Jasmine Jasudavicius by Decision
Nick: Jasmine Jasudavicius is 1-1 in the UFC. She struggled her last time out in a surprisingly difficult match-up against Natalia Silva, and before that she secured a convincing win over a fighter in Kay Hansen who is no longer on the UFC roster. Jasudavicius is decent everywhere, but she’s found more success grappling than she has striking. Her takedown entries are somewhat predictable, but she’s surprisingly strong for her frame so she’s able to secure them even when her opponents see them coming. Gabriella Fernandez will be making her UFC debut here, with an 8-1 record as the LFA Interim Flyweight Champion. She’s primarily a striker, but most of her recent success has come on the mat as each of her last two wins have come via submission. Fernandez is going to be the better striker in this match-up, so if she can keep this fight standing I expect she can win convincingly. That being said, I’m not confident in her takedown defense. I expect Jasudavicius can secure the takedowns she needs here as she leans on her grappling to grind Fernandez out for a decision. This is a low level match-up and a low confidence play, but I prefer the underdog in this one. Jasmine Jasudavicius by Decision

Trevor Peek -220 vs Erick Gonzalez +175

Anthony: The featured prelim is a great scrap between Trevor Peek and Erick Gonzalez at lightweight. This should be a war and serious contender for Fight of the Night. Peek makes his promotional debut here after winning on Dana White’s Contender Series last September. He was dropped by Malik Lewis in that bout, but Peek is an absolute dog who persevered and rallied to win in the second round. He is hyper aggressive, never taking a backward step and not at all afraid to exchange with opponents. Brawling is not always going to be a sustainable style, but Peek is more sophisticated than most fighters with 100 percent finish rates. The technique is sound and Peek can also mix in wrestling as needed to really keep opponents guessing. Gonzalez will be happy to bang with Peek and I expect him to take a few exchanges early. A five-inch advantage in reach should help Gonzalez establish range quicker than Peek, but ultimately his chin appears the less reliable. Peek understands the best time to place power shots and I see him landing flush on Gonzalez in the first half of this matchup. Trevor Peek by Round Two KO
Nick: Erick Gonzalez is a scrappy brawler, coming off back-to-back losses to Terrance McKinney and Jim Miller. Those were undoubtedly tough match-ups, but Miller isn’t known as a power puncher and he KO’d Gonzalez, and McKinney isn’t known as a grappler and he submitted him. He’s in an easier spot here against a debuting Trevor Peek, but it’s tough to expect much from him given his lack of success since his promotion to the roster. Trevor Peek will be making his UFC debut here, coming off an impressive comeback win via KO on Contender Series over a tough out in Malik Lewis. Peek is 7-0 professionally, but he’s only been fighting as a pro since 2020. His skills are still far from refined, but he gets by on his outstanding chin, toughness, and overall athleticism. Peek is going to be the aggressor here, but he’ll need to be careful not to get caught with a counter. Gonzalez does have enough power to potentially pull off an upset, but it seems more likely Peek can overwhelm him early. Another low confidence play. Trevor Peek by Round One KO

Main Card- Starts 7:00pm EST

Mike Malott -220 vs Yohan Lainesse +175

Anthony: The main card begins with the welterweight fight as Mike Malott faces Yohan Lainesse. I am expecting a good scrap here between relatively new additions to the UFC roster. Malott won his promotional debut last year in what was a back and forth round with Mickey Gall. While he does tend to get hit quite often, Malott’s striking offense has drastically improved over his past few scraps. He is a very talented grappler who should hold an advantage here facing Lainesse on the mat, but in kickboxing exchanges he will need to proceed rather cautiously. Lainesse is a thunderous striker who does well pressuring opponents and landing well timed counters. He has the much heavier hands than Malott and should draw out quite a few telegraphed attacks when these two are standing and trading. Lainesse proved in his last fight that he can keep his feet, stuffing eight of the nine takedowns attempted by Darian Weeks. Malott would perhaps be wise just surviving round number one and looking to implement his grappling later when Lainesse begins to tire. I feel that Malott’s chin is presented for the taking though and Lainesse is a great value bet at the current odds. I will bet him here in hopes that can get a jump on Malott and be the aggressor early. Yohan Lainesse by Round One KO
Nick: Malott has been a coach at Team Alpha Male for years, but he only recently began re-engaging in professional competition. He’s going to have a considerable grappling advantage offensively in this match-up, but his takedown entries and overall wrestling base is far from refined. He is a creative striker offensively, but he often leaves himself open to be countered which could be especially troublesome for him here against a powerful striker in Lainesse Laniesse is massive for a welterweight. He has a very large frame. His striking is far from refined in terms of technical ability, but he carries devastating power in his punches with six of his eight professional wins coming by knockout. If this fight takes place solely on the feet, Lainesse is very live for an upset via KO. He’s a much more powerful striker and he’s shown he can land from a variety of angles. That being said, I’m siding with Malott. I see him as the more well-rounded fighter here and I expect he can lean on his grappling to secure another win. Mike Malott by Round One Submission

Tatiana Suarez -800 vs Montana de la Rosa +550

Anthony: Next is a fight at women’s flyweight with Montana de la Rosa facing Tatiana Suarez. The long anticipated return of Suarez is finally here after a more than three year hiatus. The former strawweight has had numerous injuries to her knees and neck keeping her out of competition, but now at full strength Suarez is back and ready to compete once again. This is likely a one-off at 125 pounds to knock off the rust and get back into a rhythm. Suarez is an elite wrestler who averages north of two takedowns per round. Against a fighter like Montana de la Rosa, she is going to achieve plenty of success implementing the same game plan that got Suarez to 8-0. Normally we see Montana content to grapple but she will surely be outclassed on the mat in this fight. While her striker may be better than that of Suarez she really poses little to no threat on changing a fight on the feet. Suarez should find takedowns come easily here as she shoots from the southpaw stance and I am expecting a rather dominant showing today in her return to the cage. Tatiana Suarez by Decision
Nick: Montana de la Rosa is a well-rounded fighter who has shown serious improvements since making her debut. That being said, there’s really nothing about her game that suggests she’s ever going to contend for a title. She has above average wrestling ability and she thrives against inferior grapplers. However, her striking is still far from technical and she takes a lot of damage in most of her fights. Tatiana Suarez hasn’t fought since 2019, but prior to her long layoff she was considered a future title contender at strawweight. She’s been dealing with several injuries, primarily to her knees, but she finally seems back to near perfect health. Known for her near olympic level wrestling ability, Suarez seems primed to once again build major momentum towards a title shot. I have trouble backing her at this extremely wide line, but as long as she’s healthy she should roll here. Her grappling advantage is much greater than de la Rosa’s could be on the feet. Tatiana Suarez by Round Three KO

Augusto Sakai -130 vs Don’Tale Mayes +105

Anthony: This is a fight at heavyweight with Don’Tale Mayes facing Augusto Sakai. Honestly this matchup is rather low-level with neither one of these fighters worthy for the division’s top fifteen. Although he has been facing the upper echelon contenders, Sakai is on a four fight losing skid. He has been finished by punches in all of those defeats and for that reason alone these odds seem flukey. Sakai’s last win came against Blagoy Ivanov in May of 2020, a close split decision. Mayes has won two UFC bouts since then and appears to be the more consistent. He has a size advantage over Sakai, yet stands the more athletic and agile of the two men. I see him looking to contest Sakai at distance here tonight, using his length to land from the outside and stay off the cage. While I won’t be getting involved in a volatile matchup like this, Mayes is the pick for me. He may not match Sakai’s volume but if we see a finish I side with Mayes given his better chin and superior power. Don’Tale Mayes by Round Two KO
Nick: Sakai is on a four fight losing streak, falling to tough competition in Alistair Overeem, Jairzinho Rozenstruik, Sergey Spivak, and Tai Tuivasa. He’s a fairly technical striker for a heavyweight. He has solid footwork and puts out excellent volume for a heavyweight, landing more than five significant strikes per minute. He is sometimes careless defensively in exchanges, but he does a good job circling away from the power of his opponents. Don’Tale Mayes is a powerful striker, but he’s sometimes slow and plodding and he often seems to wait for the fight to come to him. He can be explosive once he gets going, but he’s the type of fighter that needs to eat a few shots to wake up and get aggressive. He’s continued to show improvements both in his striking and grappling ability, but there is no denying the fact he’s been dramatically inconsistent at the UFC level. It’s impossible to trust either fighter in this match-up, but I slightly prefer Sakai. He’s the more technical striker and I expect he can crowd Mayes early and negate a potential power disadvantage. Augusto Sakai by Decision

Andre Muniz -235 vs Brendan Allen +185

Anthony: The co-main event is a middleweight fight between Andre Muniz and Brendan Allen. I think these are two talented contenders in the 185 pound division, though this particular matchup should favor Muniz stylistically. Allen is a very well-rounded athlete who has grown tremendously as a striker over the past few years. Joining Henri Hooft and the team at Sanford has made Allen more aware defensively, moving his head and learning to flow on the feet. His best work is still done on the mat though, often securing control of opponents and advancing positions intelligently. That makes for an issue facing Muniz who is the far better jiu jitsu practitioner. Muniz is a third degree black belt with fifteen professional wins by submission. He never rushes to find a finish and as a result it is easy to trust him not to cede positions on the mat after getting the fight there. In this matchup I expect Muniz to handle Allen on the mat while neither man is very intimidating at kickboxing range. The Brazilian should spend a majority of this fight in top position, regardless of who elects to shoot first and begin these grappling exchanges. Muniz only has one loss since 2013, falling to undefeated light heavyweight Azamat Murzakanov. A win here should move him into the middleweight division’s top ten. Andre Muniz by Round Two Submission
Nick: Eleven of Allen’s twenty professional wins have come by submission. He has excellent BJJ, with a solid wrestling base, but he makes questionable decisions in many of his fights. He often plays into the strengths of his opponents and he seems overly emotional at times as he engages in brawls. His striking continues to show improvements, which isn’t surprising as he recently shifted to an excellent camp in Kill Cliff FC. As solid as he is on the ground, I don’t expect Allen to want to grapple in this particular match-up. Muniz is extremely dangerous on the mat, but Allen’s questionable fight IQ makes me reluctant to potentially back him as an underdog here. Fifteen of Muniz’ twenty-three professional victories have come by way of submission. He hasn’t lost since 2016, and after a massive wins via submission over Eryk Anders, Jacare Souza, and most recently a decision win over Uriah Hall many consider him to be one of the most dangerous grapplers there is in the world at 185 pounds. Muniz averages 3.71 takedowns per fifteen minutes. I fully expect him to try to ground Allen here in an attempt to score another submission victory. If Allen can keep this standing there’s a chance he can pull off the upset. Still, Muniz is the pick. Andre Muniz by Round One Submission

Nikita Krylov -170 vs Ryan Spann +140

Anthony: The main event is a fight between light heavyweights Nikita Krylov and Ryan Spann. This seems like a good matchup between athletes realizing a lot of success as of late. Krylov stayed busy in 2022, fighting three times and most recently beating Volkan Oezdemir by decision. He is well rounded, utilizing his grappling to great effect when there is a perceived advantage. On the feet Krylov is sharper than Spann and much more volume oriented, although that comes at the expense of power. Spann lands the harder shots and appears a bit more durable than Krylov, but both men have been finished multiple times. Spann is now 7-2 since joining the UFC. All five of his last octagon appearances ended inside of five minutes with Spann usually the one getting his hand raised. He will be most dangerous in the first round of this bout but I also like his chances if this were to go into a fourth or a fifth. Krylov does not have the most sustainable cardio and prolonged grappling exchanges can often result in him tiring as a fight wears on. Certainly he is the more technically skilled and probably a rightful favorite, but I think Spann is getting a bit overlooked here in a very winnable fight. I like the underdog number on Ryan Spann here expecting him to have the bigger moments early that clinch this victory. Consider prop bets on the early knockout or a late submission. Ryan Spann by Round One KO
Nick: Nikita Krylov is more than willing to eat shots to throw them. He’s a talented kickboxer with extremely powerful kicks. If he can take fights to the mat he’s also an aggressive offensive grappler with fifteen of his twenty-nine professional wins coming by way of submission. He’s coming off back-to-back wins over Volkan Oezdemir and Alexander Gustafsson, but he’ll be facing a different type of test here against a younger and more athletic opponent in Ryan Spann. Spann carries a lot of power and sneaky submission ability, but he’s been extremely inconsistent since he debuted with the UFC. His cardio has proven to be an issue in many of his recent fights, but he’s coming off two massive first round wins over Ion Cutelaba and Dominick Reyes. I like Spann’s chances to once again find that finish early here, but he doesn’t wear damage well and there are questions surrounding his durability as he’s been KO’d in three of his seven professional losses. If he can’t score a quick win against Krylov, this pick could get ugly fast. Still, I’ll side with Spann so pull out a quick win as the underdog. Ryan Spann by Round Two KO

Anthony Marro

Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_

Nick Marro

Twitter: @NickMarroDFS

Photo: UFC.com