No position matters more in the NFL than quarterback. You either have a franchise QB or you’re looking for one – stagnance isn’t recommended. Which is why there’s usually a carousel of quarterbacks on the move in free agency.
This year is no exception, apart from the fact that the list of quarterbacks potentially on the move is better than ever before. Geno Smith, Jimmy Garoppolo, Derek Carr, Lamar Jackson, and Aaron Rodgers are all either free agents or potential trade candidates this year, and all of them will be starters on a team once the 2023 NFL season rolls around. We just have the job of guessing where they’ll land. Let’s begin with one of the stories of the year.
Geno Smith
The NFL’s Comeback Player of the Year is in line for a big payday this off-season. Smith stepped into the role as the Seattle Seahawks’ starting quarterback after beating out Drew Lock in one of the more uninspiring quarterback battles in the off-season.
Expectations were muted and the Seahawks were deemed right in the mix for the 1st overall pick in 2023. After all, how could a quarterback who hadn’t been an actual starting quarterback for a team since 2014(!) be anything more than a bottom-tier starter?
How wrong we were. Smith was exceptional in 2022, leading the Seahawks to a 9-8 record and a postseason berth. He completed a league-best 70 percent of his passes for 4282 yards and 30 touchdowns while throwing 11 interceptions and looking completely at home within the Seahawks’ offense.
While some might suggest that Smith’s performance in 2022 is an outlier, it’s hard to see this not being real. The way he controlled the offense, found ways to extend plays, and moved the ball in general doesn’t seem flukey or manufactured. It’s a product of a quarterback finding his confidence in an offense that accentuates his strengths. Maybe we just didn’t know what Smith’s real strengths were.
His play did regress over the second half of the season, but even then, he only fell to league-average play, and his accuracy was still lingering in the mid-to-high sixties. That won’t concern teams vying for his services, but most importantly, it won’t bother the Seahawks.
Let’s be honest, he’s not going anywhere. Seattle has safely rebounded from trading away Russell Wilson and could re-sign Smith on a deal in the neighbourhood of a three-year $110 million contract. They’d be fools not to keep Smith in the building after last season.
Prediction: Seattle Seahawks
Jimmy Garoppolo
Garoppolo’s time with the 49ers has to be over now, right? Right? Not so fast now, cowboy. The 49ers are once again in a weird spot at the quarterback position. Trey Lance was the starter from Week 1, but broke his ankle in Week 2 and was replaced by Garoppolo until he suffered a broken foot in Week 13. Then, Brock Purdy took over until he tore his UCL in the playoffs. Lance is all set to be ready for OTAs, but Purdy’s timeline is slightly more questionable.
Does that mean the 49ers could again bring back Garoppolo on a one-year deal to compete with Lance for the starting job or to back him up? After all, Garoppolo was playing some of the best football of his career prior to his injury. However, it’s hard to see a deal materializing.
Garoppolo and the 49ers both know that they have two young quarterbacks on the roster who can lead an offense. Re-signing Garoppolo, who will likely command close to $30 million a year, doesn’t make sense for the 49ers or for the quarterback himself, who can find a team that would prefer his services for longer than just one year. The question is where?
On the surface, it’s the Las Vegas Raiders that make the most sense from a fit standpoint. They’ve just moved on from Carr and have a boatload of cash to improve the roster – but a quarterback is high on the list of needs. Garoppolo has worked extensively with Josh McDaniels throughout their time in New England. He’d also fit the mould of what McDaniels likes in his quarterbacks in his ability to target the intermediate middle areas of the field. But we’re going in a different direction, purely because there’s a chance the Raiders draft a quarterback or make another splash. We’re going with a return to the New England Patriots.
Mac Jones is in no way assured of the starting role next season, and there have been rumours that he may be traded in the off-season. It’s clear that there’s a disconnect between the two parties and if Bill Belichick had the opportunity to re-sign Garoppolo, we’re going to guess he would.
Prediction: New England Patriots
Derek Carr
The former Raiders’ quarterback is a free agent for the first time in his nine-year career. There’s no doubt that things didn’t end the way Carr wanted them to in Vegas after he was benched for the final two games of the 2022 season and was granted leave from the team. He now has the chance to move on from a team that never really put the pieces around him to succeed, and even when they did, it wasn’t enough. Carr isn’t absolved from the blame, though, but a fresh start is on the horizon.
Carr did interested parties a favour by refusing to waive his no-trade clause and giving the Raiders no choice but to cut him on Valentine’s Day before his $32.7 million base salary in 2023 became fully guaranteed. Now, he’s free to negotiate any sort of deal he wishes, and it gives prospective suitors the chance to structure the contract in a way that helps both parties and gives the team cap to play with.
So far, Carr has been linked to the New York Jets and the New Orleans Saints and has already met with both teams. But he’s expected to meet with a few more teams, so expect franchises like Washington, Indianapolis, and Houston to possibly sit down with Carr prior to free agency opening.
However, the best fit probably lies with one of New Orleans or New York. Saints head coach Dennis Allen was the head coach of the Raiders when Carr was drafted in 2014, but their cap situation as of now is in dire straits. Of course, they’ll find ways to manipulate the cap to give themselves a shot at strengthening the roster, and they’re a team that always seems like they want to contend – rightly or wrongly.
Sticking Carr with the Saints gives him a decent offensive line, a good set of weapons, and a gritty defense. It makes a lot of sense.
Prediction: New Orleans Saints
Lamar Jackson
Lamar Jackson is the cream of the crop in free agency. The chance he actually makes it there is one in a million, but teams can dream of freely negotiating with the 2019 MVP. The likelihood is that the Ravens’ franchise tags Jackson, but keeping him in the building long-term is a completely different scenario. There’s still a high chance the Ravens could tag and trade Jackson if there’s no hope of figuring out a long-term deal.
He won’t be short of suitors at all. Jackson is still only 26 years old and hasn’t even hit his peak as a passer. Quarterbacks of his calibre don’t become available often, so expect the asking price to be a king’s ransom – even if the team trading for Jackson has to figure out a long-term extension. There’ll be assurances from Jackson’s side of things that if he does end up somewhere else that he’ll sign an extension – as long as it works for him.
Right now, that’s why things broke down between him and the Ravens. Apparently, the two sides were almost $100 million apart in value, which bodes poorly for the Ravens. Someone would be willing to pay Jackson what he thinks he’s worth – and that’s mostly because he’s probably worth it. He’s just that good.
Eventually, this likely plays out with the Ravens and Jackson working out a long-term extension that makes everybody happy. The Ravens know how good Jackson is and they’re a smart franchise. Letting him go, even for a haul, could be catastrophic. Elite quarterbacks don’t walk through the door every day, and the Ravens would be wise to make sure this one doesn’t walk out of it.
Prediction: Baltimore Ravens
Aaron Rodgers
While the chances of Jackson moving teams feels slim, the same can’t be said about Aaron Rodgers. The “Will he? Won’t he?” saga surrounding Rodgers leaving the Packers seems like an annual occurrence at this point. Every offseason feels like the one where he could legitimately move on from the Packers, but it never materializes. Ironically, this year seems to feel different. Rodgers is 39 and will be 40 midway through the 2023 season.
If the Packers wanted to cash out, it really needs to happen now while there’s still value on the table. Who knows how much longer Rodgers will play? Does anyone really want to take a gamble on Rodgers next year if he stays in Green Bay and things don’t work out? I’m not sure. Now is the right time to move on for all parties. Working out who makes the most sense for Rodgers is the real dilemma.
The list of teams with excellent rosters that are only a quarterback away from real contention is limited, but one team sticks out: the New York Jets. Poor quarterback play held the Jets back in 2022, but they still found a way to finish 7-10 with the trio of Zach Wilson, Joe Flacco, and Mike White starting at quarterback. Even an upgrade to league-average quarterback play would likely push the Jets into the postseason – but why stop there?
Adding Rodgers makes the Jets a legitimate Super Bowl contender for however long he plays. For a franchise that hasn’t made the playoffs since 2010, that’s a hell of a thing.
Prediction: New York Jets
-Thomas Valentine
Twitter: @tvalentinesport
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