UFC 316 Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 - Full Card Analysis

UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs O’Malley II – 6.7.2025 – Fight Predictions and Analysis

Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs O’Malley II. Get excited for tonight’s stacked pay-per-view live from the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey. The title is on the line at bantamweight in two world title fights. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick as our records will not reflect confidence in each selection. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few.

Current Record

Anthony: 135-79-1 (Last Year 321-191-0, 63%)
Nick: 138-76-1 (Last Year 316-196-0, 62%)

*Fight odds were last updated from Bet99 on 6-6-2025 at 9pm EST

Early Prelims- Start 6:00pm EST

MarQuel Mederos -180 vs Mark Choinski +155

Anthony: The card begins with lightweights MarQuel Mederos and Mark Choinski. This booking comes on short notice with Choinski making his promotional debut with the UFC. Mederos was scheduled to fight Bolaji Oki last weekend but instead withdrew from that matchup. This seems like a much easier opponent to be facing but I am not sure what circumstances caused Mederos to pull out initially. Choinski is 8-0 as a professional but no wins have come over solid competition. He has been competing against very low-level opponents but beating them handily with his striking and wrestling. I think Choinski could fair well in this fight if he can take down Mederos but I am not going to risk betting him. Mederos is the much better technical striker and more complete fighter at range. Mederos should be able to rely on his length and a cardio advantage to win. I also think he hits harder than anyone Choinski has opposed up to this point. While Choinski could be able to grind out this win, we have yet to see him forced to earn victories after getting clipped. Nobody has put his hands on Choinski like Mederos probably will tonight. MarQuel Mederos by Decision
Nick: Mark Choinski will be making his UFC debut here, taking this fight on less than a weeks’ notice. Choinski is 8-0 professionally, with most of his recent wins coming against a decent level of regional competition as he’s been fighting for Anthony Pettis FC. Choinski is a credentialed wrestler with opportunistic BJJ. His striking is far from developed, but it does seem to be improving from fight to fight. Mederos is 10-1 professionally, coming into this fight on an eight fight win streak. He’s fought a decent level of competition regionally, primarily fighting for Fury FC. Six of his ten professional wins have come via KO and he certainly prefers to fight on the feet at striking range. He’s coming off back-to-back wins under the UFC banner, and he was originally scheduled to fight last week against Bolaji Oki before he was forced to turn out due to injury. He has excellent cardio, and at 28-years old it seems he’s entering his athletic prime. This fight should be competitive, but I expect Mederos’ speed and athleticism should shine through here. He’s the better technical striker in this match-up, and I expect he’ll land the more damaging shots as long as he can mostly keep things standing. MarQuel Mederos by Decision

Quillan Salkilld -470 vs Yanal Ashmouz +360

Anthony: Next is a matchup at lightweight between Quillan Salkilld and Yanal Ashmouz. Salkilld has converted a successful amateur career into an impressive start as a professional. He won his first UFC fight with a knockout of Anshul Jubli in just 19 seconds. Salkilld is aggressive with good striking and an above average ground game. I think he could easily handle Ashmouz on the ground but he also holds decisive advantages on the feet. While Ashmouz likes to brawl, Salkilld has much better technical boxing skills. He also benefits from a six-inch reach advantage in this matchup. Ashmouz has shown up and performed above expectations but this would be a surprising upset if he won today. Salkilld is more sound than Ashmouz defensively and better at keeping control of space. This should be a convincing win here today for the Australian. Even if Ashmouz is able to give Salkilld some problems here early I would expect the fighter with better cardio to win out in rounds two and three. Quillan Salkilld by Round Two KO
Nick: Salkild is just 25-years old, and 8-1 professionally, having not lost a fight since his professional debut back in 2021. Salkild is relatively well-rounded with three professional wins coming by knockout and three coming via submission. He fights at a torrid pace and he’s shown to have excellent cardio, having won a five-round fight regionally for the Eternal MMA Lightweight Championship in 2023. He’s coming off an impressive UFC debut which he won by 19 second KO over Anshul Jubli at UFC 312. While his skills aren’t entirely developed, Salkilld does seem to be a fighter with a high ceiling and a prospect to keep an eye on moving forward. Yanal Ashmoz is dangerous everywhere, but he’s somewhat slow in his movements and generally undersized for the division. He enters this match-up with a solid 2-1 record in the UFC, most recently securing an impressive win via decision over a tough out in Trevor Peek. What he lacks in length, he makes up for in power and technical ability. That being said, that could be difficult here as he’s going to be taking on an opponent with a six-inch reach advantage. The line here feels far too wide as Ashmouz has enough power to potentially pull off an upset. Still, Salkilld should be the better fighter no matter where this fight goes. I expect he can win this fight striking and range, and if this fight hits the mat he’s live to find a finish against an inferior BJJ player in Ashmouz. Quillan Salkilld by Round Two Submission

Joo Sang Yoo -550 vs Jeka Saragih +390

Anthony: This is a fight at featherweight between Joo Sang Yoo and Jeka Saragih. Tonight’s event is stacked with elite young talent but Yoo is probably the most hyped, entering 8-0 with all of South Korea behind him. He is very much a complete fighter with great striking skills and awesome offensive grappling. I don’t think it’s smart laying these odds on the debuting fighter but there’s no denying that he’s much further developed than Saragih. Yoo should have no problem passing on the mat and putting Saragih into submissions. We have seen a lot of vulnerability before in terms of Jeka’s grappling defense. The most likely outcome in this bout is a quick submission for Yoo. However -550 seems like a bad price to pay for the debuting fighter. While Yoo looks excellent on tape, the competition he faced so far is not the highest caliber. Saragih is a brawler that always has a chance of connecting with a big overhand right. This is a fight I will not be betting just instead watching as a fan. It is unlikely that this bout goes the full three round distance, but if it does Yoo will certainly win. Joo Sang Yoo by Decision
Nick: Joo Sang Yoo will be making his UFC debut here, entering the promotion with an 8-0 professional record at 31-years old. He’s found success against a decent level of regional opponents, having primarily fought for ZFN and AFC. Fighting out of Tiger gym in South Korea, Yoo is a protege of The Korean Zombie. He’s a flashy striker who works well at range. He’s also an effective wrestler with underrated BJJ ability. Jeka Saragih fights at an aggressive pace. He likes to force his opponents to fight moving backwards. He throws powerful but looping strikes and he’s mostly accurate in his pursuit. His striking defense is questionable at best as we saw in his UFC debut, a KO loss to Anshul Jubli. He has decent grappling ability both offensively and defensively, but he seems most content to stand and trade on the feet. Nine of his fourteen professional wins have come via KO. His hyper aggressive style has presented inconsistent results for him at this level, and he’s coming off a loss to Westin Wilson via submission in June of 2024. The line feels wide here as Yoo is somewhat unproven, but I expect he can lean on his grappling if he’s not having success on the feet. Jeka Saragih will be dangerous early here, but I expect Woo can quickly outclass him as soon as he starts to fade. Joo Sang Yoo by Round Two KO

Wang Cong -450 vs Ariane da Silva +350

Anthony: Next is a fight between women’s flyweights Ariane da Silva and Wang Cong. Da Silva weighed-in six pounds over the limit on Friday morning. She was forced to stop cutting after doctors found a benign tumor in her brain. Da Silva has never been a very high-caliber athlete and it currently seems that the UFC is using her to prop up their younger prospects. After facing Karine Silva and Jasmine Jasudavicius, she is now tasked with competing against Wang Cong. The promotion is using this big pay-per-view to continue building their foreign stars. Cong has a very fan-friendly style and the kickboxing credentials to go far in this division. Her offensive striking is elite. We see her utilize her length very well, measuring entries against her opponents. She is extremely light on her feet and quick to the point of attack. Da Silva hasn’t shown any sort of sophistication in her own offensive striking. She is not known for her jiu jitsu and I am doubtful she would succeed in attempts to takedown Cong. This should be a very easy win for Cong who will “point fight” da Silva from range. I feel comfortable betting her even at these odds. Cong by knockout is +180 if you’d rather take a chance at better odds. Wang Cong by Round One KO
Nick: Wang is 33-years old and 7-1 professionally. She’s getting a late start to her MMA career, but she’s been kickboxing for years and she’s quite athletic compared to the majority of the women’s flyweight division. Wang is fairly well-rounded, but it’s certainly at striking range where she finds most of her success. She puts out a ton of volume on the feet, and while she doesn’t carry much power, her speed and precision give her finishing upside against lower level opponents. As talented as she is, she suffered a brutal upset loss in her UFC debut in which she was club-and-subbed by Gabriella Fernandes as a massive -900 favorite. She has since corrected her trajectory in a dominant decision win over a well-rounded opponent in Bruna Brasil. Ariane Lipski da Silva is athletic and occasionally she looks like a top level talent, but she has been mostly inconsistent for the extent of her UFC tenure. She’s decent everywhere, but she doesn’t really merge her grappling and striking well. She telegraphs many of her strikes, and she can only find success on the mat if she lucks into a favorable position. Lipski missed weight by six pounds for this fight. It seems she’s not as locked in as she’d need to be to pull off the upset here. Wang Cong by Round Three KO

Preliminary Card- Starts 8:00pm EST

Khaos Williams -190 vs Andreas Gustafsson +155

Anthony: This is a fight at welterweight between Andreas Gustafsson and Khaos Williams. Gustafsson was scheduled to fight last weekend but Trevin Giles withdrew from that bout injured. Now he will draw into Williams who presents a much different test stylistically. Gustafsson went from being favored to now sitting as a moderate underdog. His brawling style may not work to great effect against a technical striker like Williams. While Williams can be a bit inconsistent, his boxing skills are elite and often he is just waiting to land one big counter to change the fight. He should see plenty of opportunities to engage here against an offensive dynamo like Gustafsson. This is very likely a fight that does not go a full fifteen minutes. Gustafsson’s early storm will either wipe out Williams or I expect to see him chinned while moving forward. I think Williams should be able to get the win in this one. Gustafsson had an easier matchup scheduled last week against Trevin Giles and I was picking him a bit reluctantly. Now Gustafsson has cut weight twice in two weeks and faces a much bigger power threat. Williams seems ready for this short notice matchup and I think he will find that knockout win. Khaos Williams by Round Two KO
Nick: Khaos Williams is growing a reputation as a knockout artist, but he has a decent wrestling base which is evident by his success on the regional scene. He’s coming off a tough loss via submission to a dangerous grappler in Gabriel Bonfim, but he is facing a more favorable match-up stylistically this time around. Williams is 15-4 professionally and 6-3 in the UFC. Khaos Williams has true KO power, he’s a technical striker both offensively and defensively and he’s going to be the much bigger fighter in this match-up. He can be overly conservative at times as he waits for fights to come to him. However, it is very clear he’s still making improvements from fight-to-fight. Andreas Gustafsson will be making his UFC debut here, coming off an impressive Contender Series win via KO over Pat Pytlik. Gustafsson is 11-2 professionally, but getting a late start to his career as he’s making his promotional debut at 34-years old. Primarily a striker, Gustafsson has won each of his last three fights via KO. He usually fights at a ridiculous pace. He prefers to push his opponents against the cage where he strikes aggressively and chases the finish. This is a volatile match-up between two potent finishers. Williams is generally inconsistent, but Gustafsson is making his debut here after having also cut weight last week. This is a low confidence play, but I expect Williams will be able to find a counter on an over aggressive opponent here. I expect he’s durable enough to sit in the pocket and land if he’s presented an opening. Khaos Williams by Round One KO

Serghei Spivac -150 vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta +125

Anthony: Next is a bout at heavyweight between Serghei Spivac and Waldo Cortes-Acosta. This is a classic matchup between striker and grappler. I am a fan of Cortes-Acosta and enjoyed watching him on the recent four-fight win streak. He’s a talented striker, landing 5.76 significant strikes per minute and constantly peppering opponents with blows from the outside. It appears that Cortes-Acosta does have good finishing instincts, but he does not possess the power to consistently hurt his opponents. Spivac has really struggled facing power-punchers before but that is not the style athlete he draws into today. Spivac will look to utilize his grappling and bring Salsa Boy down to the mat. Cortes-Acosta has defended 66 percent of opponent takedown attempts but he has not really been tested by many high-level grapplers. His one professional loss came against Marcos Rogerio de Lima in a bout that saw him taken down three times. Spivac not only has the grappling to takedown Cortes-Acosta, but on the mat he can absolutely smother him. Spivac has great jiu jitsu and he can finish fights from top positions with chokes and with ground and pound. He has even given up mount position before to complete submissions and finish fights via armbar. While I am sure Cortes-Acosta is continuing to improve when grappling, Spivac is still a terrible stylistic matchup. I am confident picking Spivac to win here at what I consider great odds. Cortes-Acosta would need to fight a perfect fifteen minutes in order to win. Serghei Spivac by Round Two Submission
Nick: Sergey Spivac is 30 years old and 17-5 professionally. He has an excellent ground game for a heavyweight. Most of his wins have come via submission or ground and pound. He’s decent at striking in the clinch, but seems overly hesitant at times, which can allow inferior opponents to stay in fights he should be dominating. Spivac averages more than three takedowns per fifteen minutes. He struggles against other heavyweights that can grapple, but he’s found a lot of success against primary strikers and he’s one of the more underrated fighters overall within the division. Waldo Cortes-Acosta is 12-1 professionally, coming off an impressive KO win over Ryan Spann. Waldo Cortes-Acosta is 6-1 in the UFC, on a four fight win-streak, and he continues to show improvements in all facets of his game. He’s athletic for a heavyweight, he has shown decent cardio and durability, but he often sacrifices defense as a means to close distance on his opponents. He has solid technical striking ability and he’ll be the better striker in this match-up, but he’s likely going to be in trouble if he can’t keep this fight standing. This is a binary match-up, but I do expect Spivac can find the takedowns he needs to put this fight where he wants it. The gap in the grappling ability in this fight feels much wider than the striking. Sergey Spivac by Round One Submission

Azamat Murzakanov -600 vs Brendson Ribeiro +400

Anthony: This is a fight at light heavyweight between Azamat Murzakanov and Brendson Ribeiro. Murzakanov is 14-0 and the odds suggest he will improve his record with another victory this evening. Murzakanov was originally booked to face Johnny Walker on this fight card so I think the promotion plans to see him stay undefeated for now. Ribeiro is a favorable opponent for him to face on short notice. The crowd should be in his support too as Murzakanov currently calls New Jersey his home. He is a striking dynamo that puts on very exciting fights in this weight class. He throws shots that hurt and break down his opponents, each thrown with punishing intent. Ribeiro will start getting beat up by the end of the first round here. Murzakov is the much more powerful striker with far superior technique. Ribeiro cashed as a +300 in his last fight but I do not expect to really see the same outcome tonight. Murzakanov will not be challenged standing and Ribeiro will struggle to get in range and engage him on the mat. Ribeiro was only able to submit Diyar Nurgozhay in his last fight after landing a lucky reversal. He cannot flip Murzakanov so easily with the same kimura. Ribeiro is smaller than Murzakanov too and less sound in terms of his defense. I think Ribeiro eats a lot of clean strikes here and eventually succumbs to knockout. Azamat Murzakanov by Round Two KO
Nick: Azamat Murzakanov is well-rounded with surprising speed and power for his frame. He’s certainly capable of winning fights on the feet, but his most dominant performances seem to come when he’s able to mix in his wrestling. Murzakanov enters this match-up undefeated, with an excellent 14-0 record and four wins under the UFC banner. Brendson Ribeiro is primarily a striker with a kill-or-be-killed level of aggression. He is extremely dangerous on the feet offensively, but he leaves himself open to be countered in exchanges. Fifteen of his sixteen professional wins have come via finish, and he has continued to show improvement on the mat as he’s now coming off an impressive submission win over Diyar Nurgozhay. Ribeiro is a dangerous finisher no matter who he’s up against, but Murzakanov is the better technical fighter no matter where this one goes. As long as he stays safe early, I expect he’ll find the finish on a counter. Azamat Murzakanov by Round Two KO

Joshua Van -700 vs Bruno Silva +450

Anthony: The featured prelim is a fight between Bruno Silva and Joshua Van. We could be in for Fight of the Night here with these two exciting flyweights clashing. Silva had won four straight bouts by finish prior to facing Manel Kape in his last appearance. There have been seven total knockdowns in his last five fights. He is a brawler that always brings it early and looks to throw reckless shots at the boxing range. Speed will be an issue for Silva in this matchup facing an opponent who is twelve years younger. This will be Van’s eighth fight in just two years with the promotion. He is young, incredibly active and developing into a better fighter with each and every performance. I have noticed drastic improvements in Van’s head movement and defensive awareness. Takedown defense had improved in his last fight as well, a dominant win against the previously undefeated Rei Tsuruya. Van tends to get better the later the fight goes and normally out strikes his opponents by a significant margin. I am expecting a very fun striking battle here to close out the prelims. Silva may start off well against Van but I think he will start to get picked apart boxing in rounds two and three. He should win this one as the large betting favorite. Joshua Van by Round Two KO
Nick: Joshua Van is 13-3 professionally, with six wins coming via KO and two coming via submission. For a 23-year old he is already very well-rounded and dangerous no matter where his fights go. He’s primarily a boxer and he’s crisp offensively. He fights at a torrid pace and puts out a lot of volume in exchanges. He’s still developing his skills, but it seems he’ll likely be a staple in the flyweight division for years to come. He’s quickly developed a reputation as a fighter who gets better as his fighters wear on. Bruno Silva is fairly well-rounded with powerful boxing technique and decent offensive grappling ability. He has impressive power in exchanges and he’s excellent out of breaks from close range. He is 14-6-2 professionally, and one of the older fighters in the division at 35-years old. While he is certainly dangerous offensively, he’s hittable in exchanges and he’s coming off a brutal KO against Manel Kape back in December of 2024. The line is ridiculous here as Silva has KO power and we’ve seen Van hurt before. That being said, as long as this fight is extended past the first round, I expect Van can pull away behind aggressive pace and volume striking. Joshua Van by Round Three KO

Main Card- Starts 10:00pm EST

Kevin Holland -250 vs Vicente Luque +200

Anthony: The main card begins with this bout at welterweight between Kevin Holland and Vicente Luque. Holland always produces fun and exciting scraps but he is generally inconsistent from one fight to another. He has had 25 fights in the promotion and each time he steps in his motivation seems to vary. I struggle to take him as a betting favorite due to his reckless nature. However, at welterweight Holland is usually more dialed and much quicker. He performed very well in his last fight against Gunnar Nelson in London. He will probably be able to lead the dance here striking against Luque. While Luque does have very good boxing, he will struggle to overcome a five-inch reach deficit. Both men have sneaky good offensive jiu jitsu and chokes upon securing the front headlock. Holland also tends to hit harder and respond better than Luque when absorbing opponent’s attacks. Luque lost via KO in two of his last four appearances. I think it will be clear very early in this fight if he can handle the shots that Holland is throwing. I suggest betting Holland via knockout rather than playing him -250 on the moneyline. His clearest path to victory is stopping Luque early with his hands. Kevin Holland by Round Two KO
Nick: Kevin Holland has developed a reputation as one of the more exciting fighters in the UFC. He talks constantly, both insulting and congratulating his opponents for the entire time he’s in the cage. He’s a rangy and creative striker with surprising power for his frame, but he has a clear hole in his game via his takedown defense. While he struggles at times against wrestlers, he has dangerous BJJ as a black belt under Travis Lutter. His grappling has looked a lot better overall since he made the move down to welterweight, but he’s been wildly inconsistent as he fights as often as anyone on the roster. Vicente Luque is an exciting fighter who throws a lot of volume and pushes a serious pace. He’s a powerful striker with true knockout power, but he sometimes over-exerts himself and leaves himself open for counters. He was once known for his excellent durability and his willingness to eat shots in exchanges, but as a 34 fight veteran it seems his durability is starting to wane at an extremely rapid pace. He looked good his last time out in a quick submission over Themba Gorimbo, but prior to that he had entertained retirement as he had allegedly been dealing with brain bleed. This is a binary match-up between two volatile fighters, which makes it a difficult fight to call. Luque’s durability is a major concern here, but if can avoid the KO I expect he could pull off an upset on the mat. Vicente Luque by Round Two Submission

Patchy Mix -180 vs Mario Bautista +145

Anthony: Next is a fight at men’s bantamweight between Patchy Mix and Mario Bautista. Originally Bautista was scheduled to face Marlon Vera at this event but instead news of this matchup broke a few weeks ago. Both men enter this bout on seven-fight winning streaks. Mix is 20-1 and a former Bellator champion. His only career loss came in his first title fight, a tough brawl against Juan Archuleta. Since then Mix has performed very well and beaten big names such as Magomed Magomedov and Sergio Pettis. He is large for this weight class and highly skilled both as a striker and grappler. Some pundits predict Mix will easily win by submission but I think Bautista deserves more respect on the mat. He is a jiu jitsu black belt under John Crouch. I expect Mix to threaten with some submissions here but Bautista can probably fight his way out of a few attempts. I consider Mix the more dangerous boxer at range although Bautista may be quicker and more technical. He should use his length to touch up Bautista and keep him guessing throughout. Bautista has won a lot of fights by slowing the pace down and making things boring. Mix cannot allow him to hold positions and burn minutes along the fence. This will be a competitive matchup but Mix will win thanks to the bigger moments as he chases the finish. Patchy Mix by Decision
Nick: Mario Bautista is a powerful striker at range. He does a great job managing distance and he uses feints well to set up his combos. While he’s most comfortable standing and trading, he is also a competent grappler as a brown belt in BJJ. He has a solid wrestling base, which he uses to control position against a wide range of opponents. Against good strikers, he can lean on his grappling. Against good grapplers, he can lean on his striking. In this particular match-up it seems he’s likely going to try to keep things standing. Patchy Mix will be making his debut here, after forcing his release from PFL after they merged and absorbed Bellator. Mix enters the UFC as the most recent Bellator Bantamweight Champion. He is 20-1 professionally and 31 years-old. Mix is relatively well-rounded, but most of his success has come on the mat. His BJJ could be amongst the best in the division, and thirteen of his twenty professional wins have come via submission. Mix’s takedown entries and general wrestling ability isn’t anything special, but his BJJ is outstanding. He’s an opportunistic finisher, and his striking seems to continue to improve as he is still in his athletic prime. He can be slow and plodding on the feet and he’s shown to be somewhat hittable in lengthy exchanges, but by no means is a fighter that can only win fights on the ground. Bautista is very live for the upset here if he can keep this fight standing. He’s the better offensive striker with superior footwork at range. That being said, I’m expecting Mix to take this fight to the mat where he’ll be at a major advantage. Patchy Mix by Round Two Submission

Joe Pyfer -400 vs Kelvin Gastelum +300

Anthony: The featured bout comes at middleweight between Joe Pyfer and Kelvin Gastelum. This was originally scheduled for a March event in Mexico City but Pyfer withdrew feeling ill on the day of the fight. The elevation there would’ve tested Pyfer’s cardio and I am sure he is thankful to instead get this matchup booked in the United States. This fight serves as a great test to see if Pyfer can really cut it at the highest level. His lone loss since joining the UFC came in his matchup against Jack Hermansson. Gastelum is a very skilled veteran that will give Pyfer a new look compared to what he has seen. Gastelum is a southpaw with exceptional boxing skills. Pyfer is the harder hitter of these two but I do not think he will test himself striking too much against Gastelum. While Pyfer holds the four-inch edge in reach, Gastelum fights deceptively long and times his counters perfectly. If Pyfer elects to just stand and trade shots here facing Kelvin, he is not going to look like the -400 favorite that he is. Gastelum is also known for his great chin and durability. I expect Pyfer to earn this victory by mixing in his grappling and showcasing his full arsenal of skills. Gastelum has just 59 percent takedown defense and poses little to no threat when his fights hit the mat. I think Pyfer will fight smart here and try to take Gastelum off of his feet. Joe Pyfer by Decision
Nick: This should be a fun matchup as both fighters are primarily strikers, and both guys are more than happy to stand in the pocket and swing. Kelvin Gastelum hasn’t been all that impressive recently, but there is no denying he has shown flashes of greatness in the past. His war with Israel Adesanya is considered by many as one of the best title fights in the history of the sport. Gastelum has surprising hand speed, and impressive cardio and durability. Additionally, his boxing is undeniably at a tremendously high level. He’s coming off a decent win over a tough out in Daniel Rodriguez, but this match-up here against Pyfer presents him with a more difficult puzzle to solve. Joe Pyfer fights out of an excellent camp in Renzo Gracie Philadelphia and he seems to be a personality the UFC hopes to feature and build moving forward. Pyfer is well-rounded, but his power certainly seems to be his greatest attribute. He’s 4-1 in the UFC, with a solid 13-3 professional record overall. Pyfer is going to be the much bigger fighter and the more potent striker in this match-up, but Gastelum has shown to be extremely durable. In spite of the line, I do see Gastelum as the better technical striker. Regardless, Pyfer is going to have a massive size and speed advantage. I also expect he can lean on his superior grappling ability if he starts to fall behind in striking exchanges. The price seems insane, but I do expect Pyfer can get it done. Joe Pyfer by Decision

Kayla Harrison -700 vs Juliana Pena +450

Anthony: The co-main event is for the women’s bantamweight championship with Juliana Pena facing Kayla Harrison. Pena is a huge underdog here as she looks to make a successful title defense. While she has proven to be gritty and capable of winning close fights, she has as many holes in her game as any of the current champions. Tonight’s event feels like a long time coming for Harrison who has always had her sights set on the UFC title. Since beginning her journey in mixed martial arts Harrison has gone 18-1 as a professional. The former two-time Olympic gold medalist has the best grappling at bantamweight and a clear edge in strength over most opponents. Pena is confident in her offensive grappling but Harrison will eventually win out if these two are going to be fighting on the mat. Pena’s black belt will be no good when facing a highly skilled judoka. Harrison is a massive favorite for good reason and I expect her to win without any scares. She made weight successfully and should be a much bigger fighter after rehydration. While Pena will look to rely on her boxing against Harrison, their striking skills are not all that different. Pena still just has basic boxing attacks while Harrison at least lands with some power when she strikes. Over the course of five rounds I am sure Harrison will get this fight where she wants it. Pena has averaged just 23 percent takedown defense. Harrison’s strength and grappling acumen will be too much for Pena to handle. And New. Kayla Harrison by Round Two KO
Nick: Julianna Pena’s greatest strength is her overall toughness and will to win. She captured the title for the second time her last time out in a narrow decision over Raquel Pennington. She’s a massive underdog here against Harrison, but it is notable she faced similar odds when she first captured the title against Amanda Nunes. She’s a dangerous BJJ practitioner if her fights hit the mat, but her takedown entries and overall wrestling ability leave a lot to be desired. She has surprising power for her frame in striking exchanges, but she mostly throws wide and looping shots. As dangerous as she can be, she telegraphs most of her strikes and she takes a lot of damage. She also carries an uninspiring 23% takedown defense in the UFC entering this match-up. Kayla Harrison is a former PFL Champion, and a two-time Olympic Gold Medalist in judo. Harrison is one of the more decorated women’s MMA practitioners in the entire world. She is 34 years-old and 18-1 professionally, with six wins coming via KO and seven coming via submission. Harrison is primarily a grappler, and her strength as a judoka is going to continue to shake up the women’s roster at 135 lbs. She has outstanding offensive grappling ability, and she’s capable of securing takedowns in seemingly countless ways. She is 2-0 in the UFC, most recently securing a dominant decision win over a tough out in Ketlen Vieira. The biggest weakness of Harrison’s is her ability to make 135 pounds, but she successfully made weight for this fight and seemed to hydrate well as she looked strong at the ceremonial weigh-ins. Pena’s only advantage here is her cardio, so Harrison will need to be careful in managing her gas tank. However, as long as she does I expect she can take this fight to the mat where she should be able to dominate using her superior size and strength. The line feels wide, but Harrison will likely look a weight class above Pena here. I expect she is too strong to be denied. And New. Kayla Harrison by Round Two Submission

Merab Dvalishvili -310 vs Sean O’Malley +250

Anthony: The main event is a rematch at bantamweight between Sean O’Malley and Merab Dvalishvili. Last September these two competed at Noche UFC where Dvalishvili was able to win the title via unanimous decision. Since then he has also defended the belt in a great performance versus Umar Nurmagomedov. Merab has done well making so many elite fighters look their absolute worst. He has handily beaten Petr Yan, Henry Cejudo, Umar Nurmagomedov, O’Malley and he probably can fight his fight and win against every single guy in this weight class. Despite having elite wrestling and 92 total takedowns, Dvalishvili has never won by submission. He poses very little threat to finishing fights white the issue when facing him is more a problem of dealing with his pace. The Machine always moves forward and forces his opponents to react to strikes and level changes. O’Malley once again needs to keep his distance and land the better strikes from range. I hope O’Malley will commit more to his attacks after handling what Dvalishvili threw at him last time. He did not gas out throughout the fight and even took the final round off of the champion. Suga will need to produce more moments in this bout but he will likely win striking exchanges, and rounds could become difficult for judges to score. He has the better finishing equity and certainly the power needed to put out anyone’s lights. Injuries plagued O’Malley in the lead-up to Noche UFC but he was never withdrawing from his spot headlining that fight card. We should see an improved version of Sean here tonight but he is fighting the same Merab ‘Machine’. All signs point toward Dvalishvili having a dominant championship reign and it would feel like a big upset if Suga won this rematch. I am picking O’Malley but I would not suggest betting him at these odds. I expect he could be offered at improved odds live after the fight begins. And New. Sean O’Malley by Decision
Nick: Merab might be the best pure wrestler on the roster at bantamweight, and he’s in the process of establishing himself as one of the greatest bantamweights of all time. He has shown an ability to score takedowns from a wide range of positions, as he’s set multiple UFC records for most takedowns in a fight. Dvalishvili averages nearly 6 takedowns per 15 minutes. He almost always leans on his grappling to control position so most of his wins come via decision. He has strung together eleven consecutive victories under the UFC banner, most recently defeating a super-prospect in Umar Nurmagomedov. This match-up with O’Malley actually represents a rematch of a fight that took place back at UFC 306, in which he mostly dominated O’Malley on the mat to secure the UFC Bantamweight Championship. Sean O’Malley is extremely fast and agile on the feet with phenomenal overall striking ability. He is defensively sound, and he does an excellent job baiting his opponents with feints. What he lacks in one shot power, he more than makes up for with speed and precision. He has an excellent +3.22 striking differential which is amongst the best on the entire UFC roster. O’Malley sports a decent 61% takedown defense coming into this match-up, which is going to be tested extensively against a pressure style wrestler in Merab Dvalishvili. This is a tough fight to call as it is such a binary match-up. If Dvalishvili can secure takedowns and utilize a pace to wear on O’Malley, he should once again be able to pull off a decision win. However, if O’Malley can keep this fight standing, he should be able to find Dvalishvili’s chin as his striking is simply levels above his opponent’s here. Nothing here would surprise me really, but more often than not I expect this fight plays out similarly to the first time these two squared off. And Still. Merab Dvalishvili by Decision

-Nick Marro

Twitter: @NickMarroDFS

-Anthony Marro

Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_

Photo: UFC.com