UFC 283 Predictions & Preview

UFC 283: Teixeira vs Hill – 1.21.2023 – Fight Predictions and Analysis

Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC 283: Teixeira vs Hill. We are finally back in Brazil for a great slate of fights on a card loaded with big names and local talent. Tune in to the pay-per-view live from the Jeunesse Arena in Rio de Janeiro. Our analysis includes a pick for every bout from Dynes Sports contributors Anthony Marro and Nicholas Marro.

As coverage continues, we will keep our records up to date below. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick though as records will not reflect confidence. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few.

Current Record

Anthony: 5-6-0 (Last Year 320-187-3, 63%)
Nick: 9-2-0 (Last Year 324-183-3, 64%)

*Fight odds were last updated from Bet99 on 1-20-2022 at 10pm EST

Early Prelims- Start 5:30pm EST

Saimon Oliveira -150 vs Daniel Marcos +120

Anthony: The card today opens with a bantamweight scrap between Saimon Oliveira and Daniel Marcos. This is the UFC debut for Marcos who emerged from Dana White’s Contender Series just like his opponent. The undefeated fighter represents Peru and draws a very winnable fight here on enemy soil. He is rather highly touted by those that train and compete against him. I like the striking of Marcos quite a bit, throwing a lot in combination and focusing on keeping a steady output. He averages more than five significant strikes landed per minute. He should have the edge over Oliveira in a kickboxing affair, benefiting from a longer frame and more crisp technique. Oliveira has the edge over Marcos on the mat but he is not always looking to push the action. I liked the aggressive nature of Oliveira in his earlier career but now he appears more content to let the fight come to him. Against a high-volume striker, I could see him falling behind on the scorecards and relying on late neck attacks and power strikes to get the win. These odds have closed quite drastically in Marcos’ favor, and I do believe he is the safer pick here today. Oliveira backers may find themselves relying on a finish to win this bet. Daniel Marcos by Decision
Nick: Saimon Oliveira is coming off a hard fought decision loss to Tony Gravely, which came in his UFC debut. He’s fairly well rounded, with decent power on the feet. He can be hittable in exchanges. However, he’s very young and athletic with a seemingly excellent chin and durability. He is a potent offensive grappler as eleven of his eighteen professional wins have come via submission. Daniel Marcos will be making his UFC debut here, coming off a Contender Series win over Brandon Lewis. He is undefeated professionally with seven of his thirteen wins coming via KO. He is primarily a striker who does a good job throwing strikes in lengthy combinations. He’s a decent defensive grappler, but on the mat he’s most content to try to work his way back to his feet. This should be a fun fight, but it’s also fairly low-level. I’ll side with the slight experience of the favorite here in front of his home crowd, but I don’t recommend betting on this one. Saimon Oliveira by Decision

Josiane Nunes -560 vs Zarah Fairn +400

Anthony: Next is a bout at women’s featherweight with Josiane Nunes taking on Zarah Fairn. This was a matchup scheduled to take place last year before Fairn missed weight and pulled out. Now these two 135ers meet up in the featherweight division where neither has a very drastic cut at all. Nunes is tiny for a bantamweight and will find herself outsized today, as is often the case in her fights. She packs a lot of power and knows how to close distance well despite ceding a six-inch edge in height and in reach. Fairn is a good technical striker but not one to crack nearly as hard as Nunes can. She is 0-2 in her previous octagon appearances and yet to see a second round inside of the UFC. While Nunes is surely not the wrecking machine these odds may imply, she should have no problem walking down and finishing an opponent of this caliber here today. Josiane Nunes by Round One KO
Nick: Josiane Nunes is coming off back-to-back wins under the UFC banner. She most recently scored a dominant decision over Ramona Pascual and before that she scored an impressive KO win over Bea Malecki in her UFC debut. She’s small for the division, but very tough and powerful with surprisingly advanced boxing ability. She throws her overhand right constantly, but her toughness and willingness to eat punches allows her to land it enough to put away lower level competition. Zarah Fairn has been out of action since February of 2020. She is coming off back-to-back losses, but they came to former title challengers in Felicia Spencer and Megan Anderson. The line is ridiculous here given the low level nature of this match-up. I expect Nunes can catch Fairn and win via KO, but she’s going to be at a dramatic reach disadvantage here. Additionally, Fairn has been out of action for so long that there’s at least a small chance she’s made considerable improvements. I’m siding with the favorite, but this is not a fight worth putting your hard earned money on. Josiane Nunes by Round One KO

Warlley Alves -130 vs Nicolas Dalby +110

Anthony: This should be an interesting welterweight fight with Nicolas Dalby taking on Warlley Alves. I am always going to be hesitant putting my hard-earned money on one of these extremely volatile fighters. You never know what version of Warlley Alves to expect on fight night as he has alternated wins and losses in his last six walks. He is a finisher, often reliant on early exchanges to get his hand raised. He has no problem getting into the pocket with his opponents, but Dalby often likes to stay fighting at range. It is a tough fight to call but I think if Dalby can stay at distance and fade the early power of Alves, he has a great chance. Dalby has never been finished and with Alves so reliant on a stoppage, the Dane should be favored if this is to go a full fifteen. He keeps a steady pace into the third round and will look the fresher fighter when the final horn sounds. I am not looking to invest much in this fight but Dalby is the pick for me. He has also never been beaten by an orthodox striker, only southpaws. Nicolas Dalby by Decision
Nick: Alves is a well-rounded fighter, but his career certainly seems to be on the decline. He’s a strong grappler with effective BJJ, but his gas tank/cardio prevents him from leaning on that part of his game. He’s a powerful striker at range with excellent body kicks, but he often seems to fade as his fights wear on. Nicolas Dalby is fairly well rounded, but most of his success has come through his strong wrestling base. He’s decent on the feet, but doesn’t throw much volume. He can be dangerous offensively, but defensively he is often there to be countered as he throws looping power shots rather than tight compact combinations. If Alves doesn’t finish Dalby early, his cardio could cost him. That being said I see him as the more dangerous fighter here. He should have technical advantages over Dalby no matter where this one goes. Warlley Alves by Round One KO

Terrance McKinney -130 vs Ismael Bonfim +110

Anthony: Next is a fight at lightweight between Terrance McKinney and Ismael Bonfim. Representing Brazil on this card are Ismael Bonfim and his younger brother Gabriel. Both looked phenomenal appearing on Dana White’s Contender Series and I am excited to see how each progresses forward. Ismael is a bit further developed as a striker, posing a threat to McKinney here with his advanced techniques and high accuracy. He does well finding his target and stringing together combinations even as fights go late. This is a massive card for him to debut on and he draws a very tough test in T-Wrecks. While Bonfim is very talented when fights hit the mat, I do not see him fairing well in prolonged exchanges there for this matchup. McKinney has very good wrestling and often unloads heavy ground and pound upon securing dominant top position. Bonfim has a better chance winning this fight on the feet, landing with higher volume than McKinney and taking over as he begins to fade. We have seen McKinney reliant on the early finish before and I see him once again taking an aggressive approach in this fight. It is a difficult bout to call but I see McKinney getting the better of Bonfim early, someone we have seen him finished before. Terrance McKinney by Round Two KO
Nick: McKinney is known as a knockout artist, but he has underrated wrestling ability as well. He is 13-4 professionally and all of those wins have come inside the distance. He is 3-1 in the UFC, with that one loss coming to a really tough out in Drew Dober. Ismael Bonfim is one of two Bonfim brothers making their UFC debut on this card. Ismael Bonfim is coming off a solid Contender Series win over Nariman Abbasov via decision. He is 18-3 professionally and seems to have advanced technical ability in both striking and grappling. As good as Bonfim has looked, he really hasn’t found success against anyone near McKinney’s level. If he can survive early I do expect he’ll have a cardio advantage here, but that is certainly a tall order for a fighter in Bonfim who will be making his UFC debut. Terrance McKinney by Round Two KO

Cody Stamann -375 vs Luan Lacerda +280

Anthony: Next is a bantamweight fight between Cody Stamann and Luan Lacerda. This is the UFC debut for Lacerda who emerges from a solid promotion in LFA. He is a submission specialist, finishing ten of his professional wins by choke and training with very talented black belts at Nova União. While he appears very strong and muscular, I have very little good to say about Lacerda’s striking. Stamann is known for his wrestling prowess but his hands are far better than his Brazilian foe’s. He could elect to wrestle in this bout but I do not think he will be taking that unnecessary risk. Stamann is somebody I trust to stay out of submissions here, the -350 price is a bit too rich for my blood. Lacerda is long and has some unusual entries that could prove to be troublesome. I expect Stamann to win rather convincingly and extend this winning streak to two. Stamann has only lost by submission facing Said Nurmagomedov and when the champion Aljamain Sterling caught him in a Suloev Stretch. Cody Stamann by Decision
Nick: Stamman is well rounded, but his greatest strengths are his powerful wrestling base and excellent takedown ability. He’s decent on the feet, but most of his success has come via controlling position against inferior grapplers. He is coming off an impressive knockout win over Eddie Wineland, but he should be classified as a grappler over anything. Luan Lacerda will be making his UFC debut here with a 12-1 record professionally. He has mostly fought for LFA and Shooto Brazil, two respectable regional promotions. He is primarily a grappler as an advanced BJJ black belt. Ten of his twelve professional wins have come via submission. Lacerda is live for an upset via submission here, but Stamman’s experience should shine through. He’ll be the better striker and he has excellent defensive grappling ability. I expect he will mostly keep this fight standing, but his wrestling should be good enough to stay safe if this fight hits the mat. Cody Stamann by Round Two KO

Jailton Almeida -1100 vs Shamil Abdurakhimov +650

Anthony: The early prelims end with Jailton Almeida taking on Shamil Abdurakhimov at heavyweight. I really believe that Almeida is the next sensation out of Brazil, winning all three of his UFC bouts thus far. He is a light heavyweight with a massive frame and the confidence to compete against heavyweights that are tipping the scale. Yesterday he looked great facing off against Abdurakhimov who has a thirty-pound edge on him. Every fight has started the same, Almeida opens with a front kick and immediately shoots at the legs of his opponent. He has a knack for cutting through opponents on the mat and quickly getting positions to threaten with chokes or ground and pound. It may be tough to get Abdurakhimov off his feet, but I think Almeida does so just fine after seeing him quickly stop Parker Porter. Earlier in his career Abdurakhimov was a formidable heavyweight but now he has become very slow and far less durable. He’s been finished in three consecutive fights and while this may be his softest opponent in that stretch, I do truly believe his career is coming to an end. It is hard to find value on Almeida at -1000 but this should be the easiest pick on tonight’s card. Jailton Almeida by Round One Submission
Nick: Jailton Almeida is coming off dominant wins over Anton Turkalj, Danilo Marques, and Parker Porter, all of which came via first round finish. He’s extremely explosive and athletic with solid striking ability and outstanding BJJ. Almeida has shown excellent takedown entries, weight control and sweeping ability. He has dominated most grappling exchanges so far in the UFC and he has shown a very high fight IQ since he signed with the promotion. He’s dangerous everywhere, and he does an excellent job exploiting the weaknesses of his opponents. Abdurakhimov is primarily a wrestler. He’s a very strong grappler with powerful hips. He shows solid cardio for a heavy weight but there are questions surrounding his form as he’s coming off three consecutive losses and 41-years old. The odds are certainly wide here, but they seem mostly justified. Abdurakhimov is far past his prime and Almeida is one of the most exciting and explosive prospects in the division. I expect Almeida to dominate here, he should finish Abdurakhimov quickly and however he wants. Jailton Almeida by Round One KO

Preliminary Card- Starts 8:00pm EST

Gabriel Bonfim -180 vs Mounir Lazzez +145

Anthony: This is a very good welterweight matchup with Mounir Lazzez set to face Gabriel Bonfim. As mentioned prior, this is the second of two brothers on the card and I view the younger Gabriel as a more complete fighter. The undefeated prospect has very fast hands and a frame that bodes well for this 170-pound division. He is a much more decorated jiu jitsu practitioner compared to his brother Ismael, and in comparison to the opponent he draws today. Bonfim has ten professional wins by submission and some high-level transitions on the mat. He hit a textbook Von Flue choke on Dana White’s Contender Series that quickly got the attention of myself and many others. While I have been nothing but impressed by the 25-year-old, Lazzez is a solid opponent that will test him today. I think these odds are quite a bit wider than they should be given the top tier kickboxing of Lazzez. He possesses great physical gifts that are coupled with skill and timing many opponents can envy. I understand the UFC run thus far has been underwhelming but Lazzez is very live to pull off the upset in this spot. I found this bout one of the toughest on the card to call but I do think Bonfim is ultimately the one that ends up getting his hand raised. Gabriel Bonfim by Round Three Submission
Nick: Lazzez is extremely athletic with a long frame for a welterweight. He’s an explosive striker with excellent reach, but we really haven’t seen him tested extensively against top level competition. He’s coming off a solid win over Ange Loosa, so he now carries a 2-1 record in the UFC. Gabriel Bonfim will be making his UFC debut here, coming off a Contender Series win over Trey Waters via first round Von Flue choke. He’s extremely well-rounded, with three wins coming via KO and ten via submission. He should be able to hang with Lazzez on the feet here, but he has a clear path to victory if he can work Lazzez to the mat and work for a submission. If this fight stays standing Lazzez will be live for the upset, but I see Bonfim grounding him before long. Gabriel Bonfim by Round Two Submission

Thiago Moises -400 vs Melquizael Costa +300

Anthony: Next is a fun lightweight scrap with Thiago Moises facing a debuting Melquizael Costa. It is the UFC debut for Costa who steps in for the injured Guram Kutateladze. The young man has looked good in primarily striking affairs, although the level of competition is rather lackluster. He is an aggressive but cautious striker, looking to attack opponents using his length rather than competing in close quarters. Despite the divide in top tier experience it is not unreasonable to suggest he really is a better striker than Moises. However, it will be evident very early on that these two cannot compete on the mat. Moises is the far better jiu jitsu practitioner and he should make quick work of Costa grappling here. While Moises enters on a 2-2 stretch, he has been fighting the much higher caliber opponent. I see him getting an early choke. Thiago Moises by Round One Submission
Nick: Moises is a jiu jitsu specialist. He has a black belt under Paulo Streckert and boasts seven professional victories by submission. He’s coming off a solid win via first round choke over Christos Giagos. He was formally ranked as a lightweight, with notable wins over Bobby Green, Michael Johnson, and Alexander Hernandez. He had a better performance against Islam Makhachev than most of Makhachev’s opponents. His striking is fairly predictable but he’s a talented grappler who seems to improve everytime we see him in the cage. Melquizael Costa will be making his UFC debut here on short notice. He’s an aggressive striker that fights at a very fast pace, but he leaves a lot of openings defensively. His takedown defense is suspect at best, which will likely spell trouble for him in this match-up. Costa is a fun prospect who I expect can hang on the roster for a while. That being said, Moises is too much too soon for him in this match-up. Unless he can pull off a very quick upset early by knockout, I expect he’ll be outclassed significantly here. Thiago Moises by Round One Submission

Gregory Rodrigues -310 vs Brunno Ferreira +240

Anthony: You won’t want to miss this middleweight matchup between Brunno Ferreira and Gregory Rodrigues. Over the past year, Robocop has become one of my favorite fighters to watch. He is always game to bang with his opponents, trading blows in the pocket and trusting his chin to keep him upright. He really does have good technical strikes, but power is the factor that often ends up deciding his bouts. Ferreira can match him in terms of punching power, but not necessarily in terms of output and durability. Rodrigues also has an edge if this fight were to by chance hit the mat. He is a credentialed judo practitioner with far better BJJ than what Brunno has shown. I think this is a fight decided in the first ten minutes and Robocop will likely prove to be too much. Gregory Rodrigues by Round Two KO
Nick: Rodrigues has a BJJ black belt, but he’s found most of his success just standing and striking at range. He’s massive for the division, but he carries so much muscle that it seems he fades if his fights get into the later rounds. He’s coming off an impressive comeback win over Chidi Njokuani in which he absorbed massive strikes and continued fighting even with a massive gash on his forehead. He is wobbled in many of his fights, but he recovers quickly and he’s shown he can carry his power even as he starts to fade. Brunno Ferreira will be making his UFC debut here, coming off an impressive Contender Series win via KO over Leon Aliu. He’s a powerful and aggressive striker and explosive in terms of his athletic ability. However, he really hasn’t been tested extensively against top level competition. He’s dangerous offensively, but he telegraphs his bigger strikes which could prove troublesome against an opponent as experienced as Rodrigues. Ferreira is explosive enough to be considered live for an upset KO, but he’s running into an exceptionally difficult match-up here against a far more experienced Rodrigues. Gregory Rodrigues by Round Two Submission

Ihor Potieria -220 vs Shogun Rua +175

Anthony: The prelims close with what will be the final fight of Mauricio Rua’s career. Shogun is an absolute legend, the former UFC light heavyweight champion and winner of the 2005 PRIDE Grand Prix. He has had a rather quiet close to his career, entering this fight on a respectable streak of 3-3-1. Appearing most recently in May of last year he had a rather competitive fight with Ovince Saint Preux. There is still a little gas left in the tank but it is clear he has declined from his prime form a decade ago. Potieria is a young and explosive fighter that could put hands on Shogun and end this bout early but it would not surprise me to see the savvy veteran get the better of him. Potieria has not been tested by a high caliber fighter on the mat and while Shogun is not known for his wrestling, I certainly could see him mixing it up here to keep this young guy out of his face. Over his career he has averaged more than two takedowns per fight. He also still darts forward with the same powerful strikes he had been in his prime, just with a bit less speed. It is never a great choice betting these veterans in their final fight but I do think Shogun is a live dog here. I am going to take a chance and say he pulls out one more victory today in front of an arena full of his fans. Shogun Rua by Decision
Nick: Shogun Rua is a legend of the sport. His PRIDE run from 2004-2005 is amongst the best years for any fighter in the history of MMA. He’s a former UFC Light Heavyweight Champion, with notable wins over legends like Chuck Liddell, Kevin Randleman and Alistair Overeem. As impressive as his resume is, he’s a shell of who he was in his prime. He has already announced he’ll be retiring after this fight, which isn’t surprising as he’s 41-years old and coming off back-to-back losses. Potieria is primarily a brawler with dangerous offensive striking ability. He is 18-3 professionally, but he really hasn’t been tested extensively at this level. He is explosive in open space and striking out of breaks, but he seems far from refined in terms of his footwork and head movement. He’s coming off a rough loss to Nicolae Negumereanu in his UFC debut, a fight in which he was dominated everywhere. It’s tough to know what to expect from him moving forward, but he’s being gifted a winnable fight here against a true legend of the sport. A few years ago Rua would slice through Potieria. The UFC is clearly giving him one of the more winnable fights for him on the roster here, but even so I’m not confident in his abilities at this age. I expect Potieria to come out aggressive and overwhelm Rua with his speed and athleticism. If that doesn’t work, Rua will be live for the upset. Given the low level of these two at this point in their respective careers I wouldn’t recommend betting heavily on this fight. Still, I do see Potieria as the rightful favorite. Ihor Potieria by Round One KO

Main Card- Starts 10:00pm EST

Johnny Walker -190 vs Paul Craig +155

Anthony: The main card opens with a bout at light heavyweight between Johnny Walker and Paul Craig. These are two very volatile fighters that often find themselves playing the role of the underdog. Walker is favored in this matchup coming off a very impressive finish of Ion Cutelaba. That bout allowed him to showcase his offensive grappling, but today’s matchup will instead have him reliant upon his hands. Craig is a specialist who has finished 15 of his 16 professional wins by submission. He will be looking to drag Walker to the mat very early in this bout to find attacks on the arms and legs. Fight IQ has always been a major issue for Walker but the book is now out on fighting Paul Craig. Walker will need to be very careful not to engage on the mat as his striking is far superior to that of the Bearjew. I bet on Craig in his most recent octagon appearance and despite getting Volkan Oezdemir into some compromising positions, he was unable to finish the fight. I think an athletic freak like Walker avoids the subs as well and eventually lands clean shots that put Craig out. He is my pick to win here but I will not be investing much on him as a moderate betting favorite. Johnny Walker by Round Two KO
Nick: Johnny Walker was once considered a future title contender at light heavyweight, but his stock has plummeted over the past couple of years. He’s extremely gifted in terms of athletic ability, but his fighting IQ leaves a lot to be desired. He carries serious power in all of his limbs, but he’s very hittable in exchanges. He’s become a more measured fighter since he began training under John Kavanagh at SBG Ireland, but many feel that Walker’s hyper-aggressiveness is what made him dangerous when he was winning consistently. He does have some momentum coming into this match-up, off a solid win via submission over Ion Cutelaba. Paul Craig is another one of these guys who is usually aggressive early. He starts to fade when he can’t find an early finish, but he’s usually very dangerous for as long as his cardio holds up. Craig has outstanding BJJ, with thirteen of his sixteen professional wins coming via submission. This is a fairly linear match-up in that Craig will likely win via Submission if he can take Walker down, and he’ll be on the bad end of a KO loss if he can’t. My confidence is low here, but I expect Walker to catch Craig before he finds himself on the mat. Johnny Walker by Round Two KO

Jessica Andrade -500 vs Lauren Murphy +350

Anthony: Next is a bout between Jessica Andrade and Lauren Murphy at flyweight. It appears that Andrade is finally getting the respect she deserves from the betting public, closing today as a very large favorite. Her only losses since 2015 have come against women who held championship gold. Andrade is not big for the 125 pound class but she is incredibly strong. Her power is the difference in this fight once again facing an opponent in Murphy who cannot crack with comparable force. Murphy has a negative striking differential and will likely struggle to keep up with Andrade’s hand speed here. She has won six of her last seven fights largely thanks to her gameplans and wealth of Fight IQ competing for so long. She could be tempted to grapple a bit with Andrade here but I do not see her finding much success rolling with the highly credentialed Brazilian. This will likely be a fight where she is overwhelmed striking, as was the case when she faced the champion Valentina Shevchenko. I am very confident picking Andrade to get the victory here today. She may even find a way to stop Murphy who is as tough as any to finish. Jessica Andrade by Round Two KO
Nick: Andrade will be the more powerful striker in this one. Her only recent losses have come against champions or former champions, all of whom are amongst the best strikers in women’s MMA history. Andrade has another advantage in her overall grappling ability. Neither are great defensively, but we’ve seen Andrade score huge slam takedowns against a wide range of opponents. Murphy’s greatest strength has always been her toughness. She has no real standout skill, but she’s solid pretty much everywhere and her sheer grit and determination often carries her to victory. Murphy does a good job fighting in the clinch and up against the cage. She can usually outmuscle most of her opponents, but I expect that could be difficult for her here against Andrade. Both of these fighters prefer to stand and trade and find most of their success overpowering and overwhelming their opponents. That being said, Andrade has executed this gameplan at a much higher level of competition. I don’t expect Murphy will have enough power to draw Andrade’s respect here. Jessica Andrade by Round Two KO

Gilbert Burns -500 vs Neil Magny +350

Anthony: The featured bout is a welterweight scrap between Neil Magny and Gilbert Burns. There is a discrepancy in skill between these two elite fighters, but I do not think it is nearly as wide as the current odds are implying. Magny has the most wins in UFC welterweight history and almost always shows up better than the public expects. He may not have the power that Burns does striking, but Magny can match up just fine in a standup affair. He benefits from a nine-inch advantage in reach and stands five inches taller than Burns. Magny will likely be able to implement his pressure grappling and clinch heavy style against the cage here if Burns is eager to engage on the mat. Magny only defends 57 percent of opponent takedowns but I do think he has a chance to counter a lot of the entries we often see from Durinho. If successful getting early takedowns Burns probably looks like a -500 favorite, but in any other scenario I’d expect a close fight. Magny’s endurance is far superior to that of Burns training at elevation and I see him pulling away if we do get a third round. Keep in mind two of Burn’s last three appearances are losses, and the win came over a pure striker in Wonderboy Thompson. At these odds I am compelled to take a shot on the underdog. Neil Magny by Decision
Nick: Burns is an extremely talented grappler with outstanding BJJ ability. His striking continues to improve every time we see him fight, but he is looking to ground his opponents in most of his match-ups. He has eight professional wins via submission and six via KO, now coming off hard fought decision loss to Khamzat Chimaev, which came in a fight of the year candidate that actually boosted his stock much more than a loss typically would. He’s a heavy favorite in this match-up against a tough but limited opponent in Neil Magny. Magny is a rangy striker who arguably does his best work in the clinch.He has a seemingly infinite gas tank and he’s shown an uncanny ability to wear on his opponents and take over as his fights wear on. Magny has solid grappling ability, but it is nowhere near that of Burns. I expect he’s going to struggle to stay standing in this spot, and Burns should be able to submit him as we’ve seen in five of Magny’s ten professional losses. Magny’s one chance here would be to survive and then weaponize his cardio, but I expect Burns can overwhelm him quickly here in front of his home crowd. Gilbert Burns by Round Two Submission

Brandon Moreno -125 vs Deiveson Figueiredo +105

Anthony: In the co-main event, Deiveson Figueiredo and Brandon Moreno will fight for a fourth time to decide the flyweight championship. The trilogy has produced some of the best fights ever at 125 pounds and we should be in store for another great match tonight. Figueiredo won the belt last year beating Moreno by unanimous decision. It was a very close bout to score but Figgy’s three knockdowns got him the nod. Having shared the cage for so long already I feel rather confident predicting what we see here. Moreno has been the more technical fighter and had several impressive grappling exchanges, but lacks the power of Figueiredo quite clearly. The champ has superior boxing and lands much harder than Moreno. That discrepancy leads me to believe that Figueiredo successfully powers his way to another title defense. He should feel more comfortable closing the distance this time around and I see him pouring on more than the challenger can handle. He looked better than he ever has before on the scales yesterday morning. Again he switched camps for this fight but it appears the time off allowed him to hone his skills much further. Especially fighting in front of his home crowd I see Figueiredo defending once again. I am expecting to see a finish in this fight but I find it hard to imagine him losing a decision if this were to go a full five rounds. He tends to win more minutes than Moreno thanks to his more explosive attacks. At these odds, he is one of my favorite bets today. And Still. Deiveson Figueiredo by Round Three KO
Nick: We have a rematch here for the undisputed flyweight title, a match-up we’ve seen three times before. The first match-up resulted in a draw, a Fight of the Year candidate in which Figueiredo likely would have won had he not been docked points for a groin strike. In the second fight Moreno was dominant. He picked Figueiredo apart on the feet, seemingly broke him early and then worked him for a reach-naked choke finish. The third fight was extremely close, but Figueiredo edged out a decision as he knocked Moreno down twice. This time around should settle this rivalry once and for all, so I fully expect both of these fighters to be at their best here. While Moreno will likely have the better technical boxing here, Figueiredo has a serious chin. Additionally, he is the far more powerful striker and I expect he remains able to slice right through the majority of Moreno’s guard. When he’s at his best, Figueiredo is so aggressive that his opponents struggle to get into a rhythm against him. He pushes a ridiculous pace and does a good job circling away from danger. Moreno is one of the better wrestlers at flyweight and he does have an excellent gas tank. He has the more technically sound striking ability and he’s shown he has tremendous durability. As great as Moreno is, I still see Figueiredo as the better fighter. It seems he had a better weight cut for this fight than any of his previous match-ups with Moreno. I also like the fact he’ll be fighting in front of his home crowd. Moreno will certainly have his chances, but I’m siding with the more powerful and explosive athlete. And Still. Deiveson Figueiredo by Round Four KO

Jamahal Hill -135 vs Glover Teixeira +115

Anthony: The main event will decide the new light heavyweight champion as Jamahal Hill challenges Glover Teixeira for the vacant belt. While Teixeira lost to Jiri Prochazka in their classic title fight this past summer, the belt has since been vacated by Jiri due to a serious shoulder injury. The loss ended a very impressive streak by Glover, winning six bouts in a row on his way to claiming the title. The 43-year-old has defied the odds his entire career and been an extremely profitable underdog, especially as of late. The odds in this matchup are a bit surprising but there is not much bad one can say about the oncoming Hill. Since the end of 2021 he has won three in a row by knockout over solid opponents such as Johnny Walker and Thiago Santos. Hill is a dangerous southpaw striker landing north of six significant strikes each minute. He will be most dangerous here in the first ten minutes, looking to walk down Teixeira and place strikes directly on the chin. Teixeira has underrated boxing and I could see him giving Hill some problems on the feet, but the real divide between these two is in the grappling credentials. Teixeira is a fourth degree BJJ black belt with decades of experience grinding out wins on the mat. He lands on average two takedowns per fight and has immense top pressure that quickly causes opponents to panic. I am a big fan of how relentless Teixeira is once he does get hold of a single leg. While this is a very close fight to call, Glover will look like a sizable favorite if successful getting Hill to the mat. We have seen Hill finished by Paul Craig not long ago and Teixeira is an even more dangerous threat in those grappling exchanges. I expect him to fade Hill’s big power shots and win back the light heavyweight strap here tonight. And New. Glover Teixeira by Round Two Submission
Nick: Each of Jamahal Hill’s last five wins have come by knockout. He is averaging more than 6.4 strikes landed per minute. He has outstanding speed and footwork for a light heavyweight. He works well behind his jab and does an excellent job mixing power into his lengthy combinations. He’s a gifted counter-striker, carrying an impressive +2.8 strike differential so far in the UFC. He’s coming off three consecutive wins via KO, but he’s going to be facing the toughest test of his career here against an aging but dangerous Glover Teixeira. Glover Teixeira, is extremely effective on the ground. He does a good job backing his opponents against the cage and then mixing in level changes to work his opponents to the mat. Once he gets them there, his ground-and-pound ability is as good as anyone in the world. At 43 years old there’s always a chance Teixeira’s age catches up to him. However, he’s looked excellent of late. Still, there’s really no telling when his physical strengths start to flip into weaknesses. Teixeira is very good everywhere, but he mostly relies on a sound technical base as he waits to take advantage of his opponents’ mistakes. He’s going to look to ground Hill in this match-up, and that will be key in his pursuit of a victory. HIll is certainly live for the KO here as the more powerful and accurate striker. That being said, I expect Glover can stay out of danger long enough to work this fight to the mat. We saw Hill taken down several times his last time out against an inferior grappler in Thiago Santos. This is a very tough fight to call as both fighters have clear paths to victory, but I expect the underdog can collect gold for the second time here in front of his home crown. And New. Glover Teixeira by Round Two Submission

-Nick Marro

Twitter: @NickMarroDFS

-Anthony Marro

Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_

Photo: UFC.com