We’re one step closer to Arizona. After an excellent slate of games in the Wildcard Round, it’s time for the Divisional Round. We went 5-1 in our predictions last week, with the only loss coming in the not-so-upset victory for the New York Giants against the Minnesota Vikings. The Giants are back on Saturday night with a tougher test against the Philadelphia Eagles, and we’re back with the predictions once more. Let’s get rolling.
Kansas City Chiefs (-9.0) vs Jacksonville Jaguars
The Chiefs are looking to etch their name into the history books again with their fifth consecutive trip to the AFC Championship game with a win over the Jaguars on Saturday night. It doesn’t quite match the Patriots making it to eight straight AFC title games, but this Chiefs team is knocking on the door of a dynasty with another Super Bowl win.
To get there, though, they have to beat an incredibly game Jaguars team that already took the Chiefs to the limit back in Week 10. That game finished 27-17, with the Chiefs’ defensive line playing exceptionally well, sacking Trevor Lawrence five times and holding the ground game to just 75 yards.
Even then, Lawrence played well, completing 72 percent of his passes for 259 yards and 2 touchdowns. The connection with Christian Kirk caused problems for the Chiefs’ defense as well.
Steve Spagnuolo’s unit is known for playing cover 2 and quarters at a pretty high rate, and Kirk and Lawrence were able to take advantage of those looks. Unless there’s a real shift in mindset, the Chiefs’ defense will likely operate in the same way. Which means it could be another big day for Kirk.
Unlike the Wildcard Round, there’s no room for error. Lawrence can’t come out slinging four interceptions and expect to find a way back into the game. The Jaguars’ offense has to keep pace with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. That’s no easy feat. Especially since the Chiefs have had a week’s rest to prepare too.
Mahomes has been in another stratosphere compared to every other quarterback in the NFL. He led the league in touchdown passes (41), passing yards (5250), and EPA per play (0.302) while quarterbacking the league’s most efficient offense.
It’s up to the Jaguars’ edge rushers to get after Mahomes – the weakness of the offense is at the tackle spots and if Josh Allen, Travon Walker, and Arden Key can pressure Mahomes and make life tough, they can slow him down. However, will it be enough? It’s hard to say yes.
This game was probably closer than the Week 10 scoreline suggested, and Doug Pederson has shown that he knows how to beat this defense schematically, but it’s Patrick Mahomes. You don’t bet against Patrick Mahomes.
Prediction: Kansas City Chiefs 37-28 Jacksonville Jaguars
Philadelphia Eagles (-7.5) vs New York Giants
No matter what, we’re getting an NFC East team in the NFC Championship Game, and there’s every chance we get an All-NFC East tilt. But, before looking ahead to that, we’ve got the Saturday night game between the Eagles and Giants to dissect.
The Eagles are already 2-0 against the Giants this season, out-scoring them 70-38 across the two games. That makes them a touchdown and change favourite for this. But the Giants have already proven that they can make a splash in the postseason with their impressive win against the Vikings in the Wildcard Round.
If the Giants want to make an impact again, they’ll have to target the Eagles at their weakest: how they defend the run. Thankfully, one of the things that makes the Giants offense so effective is how well they run the ball.
Brian Daboll and Mike Kafka have been creative in their scheming of the Giants run game, and it led to a resurgence in play from Saquon Barkley and a career-high in rushing yards for both Barkley and quarterback Daniel Jones. Daboll, per Connor Allen, dialled up 11 designed runs for Jones last week and they’re now coming up against the Eagles who are 29th in success rate and EPA per rush against designed QB runs. There’s a clear path to causing the Eagles distress, but can the Giants take advantage of it?
Even if they do, they have to slow down Jalen Hurts and the Eagles offense. And it’s just hard to predict that happening. The Eagles offense, every single facet of it, is just dominant. From the best offensive line in the game, to the stellar wide receivers, to Jalen Hurts’ ability as a dual-threat quarterback, this team is as good as they come. The Giants might have some success and put some doubt into this, but the dream ends here.
Prediction: Philadelphia Eagles 28-21 New York Giants
Buffalo Bills (-5.5) vs Cincinnati Bengals
As good as the matchup between Lawrence and Mahomes is, this is the premier quarterback matchup of the Divisional Round between, probably, the second and third best quarterbacks in the NFL right now. Josh Allen vs Joe Burrow. Two great quarterbacks, two great defenses, two great offenses. This game has it all. It’s also a rematch of the Week 17 game that was postponed after Damar Hamlin suffered a cardiac arrest on the field, so emotions will be running high here.
Both teams won in the Wildcard Round despite not being at their best. The Bills were sloppy on offense, turning the ball over three times, and the defense gave up 31 points to a Dolphins team with a third-string quarterback. Despite that, they easily put points and yards on the board.
The Bengals offense had a tougher time against the Ravens, but the defense came up big when they needed it the most. The offense is still one of the best in the NFL, and they can put up points in bunches against the right defense. Are the Bills the right defense based on the last performance? Hard to say.
This game, like so many in the past for Cincinnati, probably comes down to protection. Alex Cappa and Jonah Williams, two of the Bengals starting offensive linemen, are out for the game, which means Max Scharping and Jackson Carman likely fill the roles. With La’el Collins already out, the Bills have an opportunity to pressure Burrow. They’ve struggled to pressure the quarterback without Von Miller, but Leslie Frazier will look to scheme up ways to get after Burrow and to get the ball out of his hands fast.
The Bengals offense probably has enough in the tank, though. The duo of Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins is among the best in the NFL, and even the Bills dynamic secondary will struggle to slow them down. The same goes for the Bengals defense vs Allen. Even at their sloppiest, the Bills can put up 30 points. This one is just so hard to predict. It’s going to be a barnstormer of a game regardless.
Prediction: Buffalo Bills 31-34 Cincinnati Bengals
San Francisco 49ers (-4.0) vs Dallas Cowboys
The weekend ends with another game that has the potential to be an absolute thriller and a rematch of the Wildcard Round matchup last year that ended with the 49ers walking away the victors as underdogs. This time around, the Cowboys are the underdogs – but both teams are among the most complete in the NFL. That’s why they’re here after all.
The 49ers steamrolled the Seahawks in the second half of their matchup last weekend. The amount of weapons they have right now is unfair. From Christian McCaffrey to Brandon Aiyuk, this team has playmakers all over the field that can hurt you in an instant – they just need the ball in their hands.
The man giving them that opportunity is Kyle Shanahan – the best play designer in the NFL. Even with a seventh round rookie at the helm, this offense is humming. But calling Brock Purdy a seventh round rookie and leaving it at that is a disservice. He’s been excellent since stepping into the starting role and, despite not playing all that well last week, still tossed four touchdown passes in the win.
This Cowboys defense is one of the best Purdy will have come up against, though. They put Tom Brady through hell for most of the game last week and Dan Quinn will look to get a similar performance from this unit on Sunday.
The Cowboys offense is one of the best in the NFL with Dak Prescott under center, and they looked dynamite against the Buccaneers on Monday. However, the 49ers defense leads the NFL in pretty much every category and that means something.
The 49ers are on an 11-game win streak, while the Cowboys – in very Cowboys fashion – feel very hit or miss. The momentum is with the 49ers, but this writer has a feeling that the Cowboys can cause an upset.
Prediction: San Francisco 49ers 21-27 Dallas Cowboys
-Thomas Valentine
Twitter: @tvalentinesport
Photo: All-Pro Reels. This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic license.