Could Santiago Espinal Become Expendable This Off-Season?
Building a sustainable winning culture often involves parting ways with complementary pieces, a dilemma the Toronto Blue Jays could face with infielder Santiago Espinal this winter.
Unlike previous off-seasons, the franchise likely won’t be able to spend as freely as they’ve become accustomed to amid a looming payroll crunch. Every dollar spent will be extra meaningful, forcing the front office to be mindful while constructing next season’s roster.
The Blue Jays won’t feature as much financial flexibility for several reasons, one being their expensive 2023 arbitration class, projected at $62 million for 13 players. And that’s before adding Espinal to the equation.
Prior to this past season, the 27-year-old had earned 1.149 years worth of big-league service time since debuting in 2020. But after enjoying his first full Major-League campaign in 2022, playing 135 games, he has since crossed the 2.128 cutoff figure, becoming a Super Two player.
For context, this development means Espinal – who was previously supposed to be arbitration-eligible after next season – will gain that status a year earlier. He is still under team control through 2026, though, so nothing changes on that front.
Espinal will, however, command a sizable raise from his 2022 salary ($718,000), and rightly so, after being worth a career-best 2.3 fWAR. The 5-foot-10 infielder is projected to earn $2.1 million through his first season of arbitration, according to FanGraphs.
As a result, that would increase Toronto’s arbitration bill to $64.1 million for 14 players. Of course, that’s assuming everyone gets tendered, which likely won’t occur.
With roughly $122 million already committed to 10 players on the club’s CBT (collective balance tax) payroll – not including the $4.3 million owed to Randal Grichuk – Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins will be tasked with shedding costs while also improving the roster. That is likely to lead to some tough decisions.
Could that involve moving on from Espinal this off-season? Perhaps. The team would benefit from allocating his salary elsewhere, and they did, after all, acquire utility infielder Whit Merrifield at last August’s trade deadline.
Merrifield, who is signed through 2023 and has an $18 million mutual option for ‘24, is likely to spend most of his reps at second base next season. And after hitting .422/.426/.778 over his final 13 regular-season games, he could serve as an everyday contributor at that position.
Where does that leave Espinal? The right-hander would probably be relegated to a part-time role, just as he was down the stretch in 2022. His versatility would allow him to bounce around the infield, providing quality defence at every stop.
Offensively, most of his appearances would likely occur versus left-handed pitching after slashing .301/.375/.451 with a 137 wRC+ against them this past season.
That would supply the Blue Jays with an impact performer off the bench, however, it’s worth wondering if they could replicate Espinal’s production with someone younger – and cheaper – internally. It’s not like the farm system doesn’t already feature a long list of talented infield prospects.
Oh wait, it most certainly does.
Otto Lopez is probably the most MLB-ready amongst the group, as he’s logged 11 career big-league plate appearances since 2021. That isn’t a large sample size, obviously, but the 24-year-old is coming off an encouraging offensive performance.
In 91 games with triple-A Buffalo, Lopez hit .297/.378/.415 with three home runs, 34 RBIs and a 114 wRC+ over 391 plate appearances. He also stole 14 bases, being caught in five of 19 attempts.
The right-hander’s plate discipline was also on display, leading to impressive walk (10.5 percent) and strikeout rates (15.6 percent). That helped generate his notable .356 wOBA, too.
Like Espinal, Lopez features plenty of versatility and can play second base, shortstop, left, centre and right field. His most comfortable position is second, though, where he compiled 327.1 innings in 2022.
Next up is Addison Barger, who will be Rule-5 eligible and is likely to be added to Toronto’s 40-man roster this off-season. The 22-year-old rose quickly through the system during the regular season, excelling across three different levels (high-A, double-A, triple-A).
Overall, the left-hander slashed a combined .308/.378/.555 with 26 home runs, 91 RBIs and a 152 wRC+ across 124 games split between the Vancouver Canadians, New Hampshire Fisher Cats and Buffalo Bisons.
Defensively, Barger can be positioned at first, second and third base. He has also spent a considerable amount of time at shortstop, as well.
Top prospect Orelvis Martinez could also factor into the conversation, as he’s projected to make his MLB debut in 2023. But considering the 20-year-old hit a robust .203/.286/.446, albeit with 30 round-trippers, his development is likely far from complete.
The Blue Jays are also reportedly high on prospects Davis Schneider and Tanner Morris, who both require protection from this winter’s Rule 5 Draft. If either player remains with the organization through the off-season and ends up on the 40-man roster, they could make an impact in some capacity next season.
From a long-term standpoint, the franchise’s prospect pool is rich with skilled infielders at the lower levels, including Leo Jimenez, Tucker Toman, Josh Kasevich, Cade Doughty, Alex De Jesus, Adrian Pinto, Manuel Beltre, Estiven Machado and many others.
So if the Blue Jays decide to make Espinal available, plenty of suitable replacements would be waiting in the wings. That doesn’t guarantee he’ll be traded this off-season, though the debate is worth having.
-Thomas Hall
Twitter: @ThomasHall85
Photo: Erik Drost. This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license.