UFC 315: Muhammad vs Della Maddalena – 5.10.2025 – Fight Predictions and Analysis
Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC 315: Muhammad vs Della Maddalena. Two title fights headline this event live from Bell Centre in Montreal Quebec, Canada. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick as our records will not reflect confidence in each selection. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few.
Current Record
- Anthony: 117-65-1 (Last Year 321-191-0, 63%)
- Nick: 116-66-1 (Last Year 316-196-0, 62%)
*Fight odds were last updated from Bet99 on 5-9-2025 at 9pm EST
Early Prelims- Starts 6:30pm EST
Bekzat Almakhan -150 vs Brad Katona +125
- Anthony: The event begins at bantamweight with Bekzat Almakhan facing Brad Katona. We often see the same performance out of Katona every time, fighting hard and putting forth great effort to outwork his opponent. He has not executed takedowns with good timing lately but he is great at mixing different positions and beating his opponents to spots. He should have a decisive grappling advantage here against Almakhan in the moments that he wrestles. During striking exchanges, Almakhan has the edge over Katona with his power and hand speed. Katona will do well landing kicks and touching Almakhan, but the heavier and more impactful strikes will likely be coming from the fighter from Kazakhstan. Almakhan is in excellent shape and I do not expect Katona’s cardio advantage to be too decisive here. I am not confident in selecting Katona but I’d prefer to bet him as the underdog against Almakhan. While the level of competition has always been solid for Almakhan, Katona has been fighting the much better guys for years. Brad Katona by Decision
- Nick: Bekzat Almakhan is 11-2 professionally and 27-years old. He’s a talented prospect fighting out of Kazakhstan, with nine of his wins coming via KO. He is primarily a striker, who does a good job fighting at range. He throws fast and powerful high kicks and it’s safe to expect he’ll have a long career in the UFC. He’s been out of action since he fell in his UFC debut back in March of 2024. He suffered a loss in that fight, but it came on short notice against one of the division’s top contenders in Umar Nurmagomedov. Almakhan scored an early knockdown in that fight, and he was relatively competitive given the short notice nature and the level of his opponent in that match-up. Brad Katona is a well-rounded fighter who is known for his cerebral fighting style and his extremely high Fight IQ. He does an excellent job capitalizing on the weaknesses of his opponents. He studies his opponents extensively, but in most of his fights we see him lean on a grappling heavy game plan to grind out decisions. The one knock on him is he can be overly hesitant at times as he tends to fight down to the level of his opponent. Additionally, Katona has dropped two of his last three fights. Katona is inconsistent and Almakhan is relatively untested which makes this a tough fight to call. Almakhan does seem skilled, but I do expect Katona to dictate the pace here. Additionally, he’s been durable historically and I expect him to land more volume on the feet. This is a low confidence play, but I see value in Katona as the underdog. Brad Katona by Decision
Jeong Yeong Lee -145 vs Daniel Santos +120
- Anthony: Next is a fight at featherweight between Daniel Santos and Jeong Yeong Lee. Santos struggled to make weight on Friday but he was able to do so on his second attempt. Santos always barely made the bantamweight limit but it surprises me that cannot make 145 pounds comfortably. I think that may speak to his discipline and overall ceiling as a professional. Santos has the skills to beat an opponent like Lee but it seems like a risky bet. He is a very reckless fighter, following the typical mold of the Chute Boxe camp under Diego Lima. He will chase submissions whenever he has the opportunity and at all other points he will be throwing hard in search of the knockout. Lee is technically much more skilled and much better suited for featherweight. He should have the advantage in rounds two and three against Santos who burns too hot early on. Lee is also a solid wrestler who does well dragging opponents to the ground. It would not surprise me to see Lee shoot a lot of takedowns here to fight Santos where he is less dangerous. Lee can also stay out of the submission attempts that he will run into when fighting in top position. Odds have flipped so Santos is now the betting underdog after his near weight miss. I personally think these odds are more fair with Lee the slight betting favorite. Jeong Yeong Lee by Decision
- Nick: Daniel Santos is extremely aggressive on the feet. He throws a wide range of spinning attacks and he’s not afraid to rush in to pressure his opponents. He is 11-2 professionally, with five wins coming via KO and two via submission. He is coming off a solid decision win over Johnny Munoz Jr., but he has been out of action since that fight which took place back in June of 2023. It is also notable that he’s been forced to pull out of each of his last three fights due to injuries or illnesses. He continues to show considerable improvements in his grappling ability, but it seems he’s most content to stand and trade on the feet. It is notable that Daniel Santos will be moving up a weight class here, he’s likely going to be outsized in this match-up. Jeong Yeong Lee is 11-2 professionally, and one of the more promising young prospects fighting out of Korea. Lee is an aggressive striker who likes to walk down his opponents and back them against the cage. He fights out of a traditional Muay Thai stance, throws all of his limbs well, and his grappling has come a long way since he debuted professionally. This is a relatively low level match-up, but I’m seeing value on the Lee side. He’ll need to stay safe early, but he’s the much bigger fighter in this match-up and he has the better gas tank as well. A low confidence play, but I expect Santos to struggle against a much bigger opponent. Jeong Yeong Lee by Decision
Marc-Andre Barriault -165 vs Bruno Silva +130
- Anthony: This is a fight at middleweight between Bruno Silva and Marc-Andre Barriault. Silva is entering this fight having lost four in a row while not putting forth very inspiring performances. He missed weight on Friday and I expect this may be his last appearance in the promotion. Recent defeats have had Silva slipping and appearing lost against the likes of Ismael Naurdiev and Chris Weidman. I am happy to target bets against him based on all recent results. Silva is not known for his power, so Barriault can likely avoid getting hurt as he moves forward and lands his shots. I’m skeptical backing Barriault coming off consecutive knockout losses, but I am willing to give his chin one more chance. He is the rightful favorite here with much better cardio and offensive output when compared to Silva. He does well winning minutes in clinch positions and punishing his opponents with a high volume of strikes. He does not tend to land with much power but that consistent barrage of punches will likely have Silva covering up a lot. Barriault has the speed advantage here and better overall reaction time. It is a volatile fight but at -150 I feel comfortable going to the window and betting on the Canadian. Marc-Andre Barriault by Round Three KO
- Nick: Barriault fights at a torrid pace. He has decent power and does a good job putting pressure on his opponents. His durability allows him to easily close distance and while his striking isn’t all that technically sound, he’s powerful enough to win exchanges on the feet. His greatest attribute is certainly his cardio, as many of his victories come via taking damage easy and waiting for his opponents to drain their gas tanks then taking over late. As durable as he’s been for most of his career, it is worth mentioning he suffered KO losses in back-to-back fights. He’s on a three-fight losing streak for the first time since 2019, and there is a chance he’ll be cut from the roster if he can’t secure a win in this match-up. Bruno Silva carries massive power in his strikes with twenty of his twenty-three professional victories coming by way of KO. He’s a decent grappler with dangerous BJJ, but he doesn’t really have the cardio to exchange in aggressive grappling exchanges offensively. At his best, Silva is very dangerous offensively. However, he’s been wildly inconsistent in the UFC which is evident by his 4-6 record within the promotion. Silva is coming off four straight losses for the first time in his career. That being said, he’s likely being given a chance to hold onto his roster spot here as he’s been taking on a high level of opponent. These are two volatile fighters’ whose respective backs are up against the wall. This is a fight that could certainly go either way, but I prefer the Barriault side. His durability is a concern, but he has the better cardio in this match-up and he’s the more well-rounded fighter overall. Marc-Andre Barriault by Round Two KO
Preliminary Card- Starts 8:00pm EST
Navajo Stirling -325 vs Ivan Erslan +250
- Anthony: This is a fight at light heavyweight between Ivan Erslan and Navajo Stirling. While Stirling is a bit inexperienced at 6-0, this appears to be a matchup that continues his slow build into mixed martial arts. Stirling trains at City Kickboxing and is a star pupil for Doug Viney and Eugene Bareman. He is built for success in this division at 6’4 with a 79-inch reach. He has a seven-inch reach advantage here against Erslan. Stirling fights according to plan, fighting at range and using feints and kicks to break down his opponents. He is patient when it comes to landing his counters and putting his opponents away. Erslan will struggle to land clean shots against Stirling without eating a precise strike in return. Erslan has good power when he can square up his opponents but Stirling is constantly moving and manipulating his angle of attack. This is shaping up to be an easy win for Stirling who will certainly control the majority of this fight. Erslan is not the type to chase takedowns and thus far, Stirling has really held his own against opponent’s grappling. Erslan will test himself against Stirling on the feet and I think the much better striker will win. Stirling is one of my most confident picks on the card. The perfect opponent for this style kickboxer is an opponent who hunts for a one-punch knockout. Navajo Stirling by Round Three KO
- Nick: Stirling is just 6-0 professionally, but he also has a lot of experience fighting professionally as a kickboxer. He fights out of City Kickboxing in New Zealand, where he trains with the likes of Israel Adesanya, Dan Hooker, and Carlos Ulberg. Coached by Eugene Baremen, Stirling is a gifted striker who does his best work at range. He is 28-years old, and four of his last five wins have come via KO. He’s coming off a decision win over Tuco Tokkos in his UFC debut. He was dominant in that fight, but many were disappointed he wasn’t able to find a finish over a relatively low level of opponent in Tokkos. Erslan has spent most of his career fighting for a highly-regarded regional promotion via KSW in Poland. Erslan is an explosive striker with true KO power. He’s extremely aggressive, which can be concerning at times as he’s more than willing to sacrifice defense for offense. He was competitive in his UFC debut, a decision loss to Ion Cutelaba. Still, he’s fairly predictable in his approach which is likely going to spell trouble for him in this match-up. The line feels here as Stirling is still somewhat unproven at this level. Still, he is the rightful favorite. I expect he can keep this fight standing long enough to eventually score a flashy knockout. Navajo Stirling by Round Two KO
Ion Cutelaba -120 vs Modestas Bukauskas +100
- Anthony: Next is another bout at light heavyweight with Ion Cutelaba set to face Modestas Bukauskas. It is always very difficult to try and predict Cutelaba’s fights. He is an extremely reckless fighter that takes a different approach to each and every fight. Cutelaba can be quick to shoot for takedowns and get on top of opponents when he can hunt for the finish. Sometimes his aggressive wrestling so early drains Cutelaba’s cardio. He is also a dynamic striker with big looping punches that certainly hurt when they connect. Bukauskas has looked great in his two wins since rejoining the UFC. He beat Raffael Cerqueira easily with much improved boxing in his last fight. Bukauskas is always a tough opponent at range given his great technical striking skills. Bukauskas has the better hand speed in this matchup and more weapons to attempt attacks against Cutelaba. Bukauskas also defends 71 percent of opponent takedowns, often very quickly escaping from body lock attempts. He is more skilled than Cutelaba in the clinch and likely to be fresher if this fight gets into rounds two and three. At near pick em odds i feel comfortable putting my money on the more skilled fighter. Cutelaba is a dangerous opponent to gameplan for but he does not fight quite as clean as Bukauskas. Modestas Bukauskas by Round Three KO
- Nick: Ion Cutelaba is going to come out firing here, he always does. He’s hyper aggressive with serious power and explosiveness on the feet. He’s an underrated grappler as a lifelong Greco Roman Wrestler, but he doesn’t seem to lean on that part of his game much in the majority of his fights. The likely reason for this is that his cardio is mediocre at best. He almost always seems to fade as his fights wear on and if he can’t find a KO win early he can find himself in serious trouble. Modestas Bukauskas is 6’3 with a 78-inch reach. He fights even longer than that, as he keeps a wide stance both striking and defending against takedowns. His greatest strength is his powerful striking, but he seems to leave his hands down which leaves him vulnerable against other powerful punchers. His grappling continues to improve, and he is certainly a fighter who has been consistently improving his skills as he is still young for the division at just 31 years old. These are two volatile fighters who have finishing potential but also show questionable durability. I slightly prefer the Cutelaba side as I expect he can overwhelm Bukauskas here if he comes out aggressive early. Ion Cutelaba by Round One KO
Jasmine Jasudavicius -300 vs Jessica Andrade +240
- Anthony: This is a fight at women’s flyweight between Jessica Andrade and Jasmine Jasudavicius. It appears that this is a good matchup for Jasudavicius who competes in her native Canada tonight. She is on a four fight winning streak and looking much improved as she enters the divisional rankings. Her great takedowns and grappling offense are a deciding factor in each of her fights. Andrade was outworked by Natlia Silva in her last fight and she is always vulnerable to opponents that can take her down. She is much smaller competing against Jasudavicius in this weight class. Andrade has looked slower in recent performances and her striking output has been going down. Jasudavicius has scored multiple takedowns in every fight on this winning streak. She is going to follow a gameplan here and execute well against Andrade. At this stage of her career, Andrade will not explode out of these submission attempts or land any hail mary punches. She is going to struggle to keep Jasudavicius from finding a finish against her. I am very confident in Jasudavicius after she just convincingly beat Mayra Bueno Silva on the ground. She should be able to easily control Andrade and hurt her with strikes from top position. She is one of my most confident picks on the fight card. Jasmine Jasudavicius by Decision
- Nick: Jasmine Jasudavicius is decent everywhere, but she’s found more success grappling than she has striking. Her takedown entries are somewhat predictable, but she’s surprisingly strong for her frame so she’s able to secure them even when her opponents see them coming. She is 13-3 professionally and 7-2 in the UFC, most recently securing a dominant decision win over a tough out in Mayra Bueno Silva. Jessica Andrade fights out of a compact stance and she’s easily one of the most powerful punchers in WMMA. She lands nearly 7 significant strikes per minute in the UFC, and she’s fought and won against the majority of the elite women on the roster. As talented as she is, there is no denying the fact she’s on the back half of her career. She’s coming off a hard fought decision loss to a tough out in Natalia Silva. Andrade is dangerous, but most of her success has come down a weight class from where this fight will take place. She has had issues against grapplers at 125 lbs, which Jasudavicius has a clear path to victory here if she can lean on her wrestling. Andrade will be live for the upset if she can keep things standing here, but that outcome feels unlikely at best. Jasmine Jasudavicius by Round Two Submission
Mike Malott -190 vs Charles Radtke +150
- Anthony: The co-main event is a fight at welterweight between Charles Radtke and Mike Malot. This is a great fight to measure both fighters as they look to continue their ascent in the division. Malott is a small star in Canada, representing Ontario and winning all but one of his UFC appearances. He is a very skilled submission grappler who leads the training at Team Alpha Male. In addition to his grappling, Malott has developed good kickboxing skills with a potent offensive attack. Malott is confident exchanging blows with his opponent and spending a lot of time in the pocket. He is more aggressive than Radtke, while Radtke will be more measured and focused on defending from the early storm. He is durable, and I think it will be just as hard for Malott to take down Radtke as it will be to find the knockout. Radtke will probably struggle with imposing his will on Malott if he is considerably slower and moving backwards too often. I do not think he is in position to win many minutes here holding Malott against the fence. The crowd will be in full support of Malott for this matchup and he is rightfully favored here. The betting odds on this fight have gotten closer and for that reason I do not mind placing my money on Malott. Mike Malott by Round Three KO
- Nick: Mike Malott has been a coach at American Top Team for years, but he only recently began re-engaging in professional competition. He’s a dangerous BJJ player, but his takedown entries and overall wrestling base is far from refined. He is a creative striker offensively, but he often leaves himself open to be countered. Malott is 4-1 in the UFC, most recently securing a narrow decision win over Trevor Giles. Prior to that fight, he suffered a loss to Neil Magny in devastating fashion. Malott was dominating that fight, but he overexerted himself chasing a finish and was then taken out by Magny as his cardio completely depleted. While it was good to see him get back in the win column against Giles, he was more tentative in that match-up, likely as he was concerned with burning through his gas tank. It will be interesting to see which version of Malott we see this time around in front of his home crowd. Charles Radtke is a relatively well-rounded fighter who does a good job honing in on the weaknesses of his opponents. He is 10-4 professionally, coming off an impressive KO win over Matthew Semelsberger back in November of 2024. Radke is 34-years old, and can be dangerous wherever his fights go. Still, there is no denying his aggressive style makes him a volatile fighter to back with any sort of confidence. Malott is the more well-rounded fighter in this match-up, but Radtke is the more dangerous striker. This is one of the tougher fights on the card to call. I slightly prefer the favorite as the more-well rounded fighter in this match-up. He’ll have his home crowd behind him, and Radtke’s only path to victory here likely comes by knockout. Mike Malott by Decision
Main Card- Starts 10:00pm EST
Benoit Saint Denis -1400 vs Kyle Prepolec +800
- Anthony: The main card begins with Benoit Saint Denis against Kyle Prepolec at lightweight. This is a short notice fight after Saint Denis was originally scheduled to face Joel Alvarez at this event. Prepolec has had a full camp leading up to this fight but he is accepting the bout on just days’ notice. The Canadian had a previous stint in the UFC with losses to Austin Hubbard and Nordine Taleb. He is a solid boxer with good defensive awareness. Preopolec has a fair puncher’s chance in this matchup if he is able to put his hands on Saint Denis early on. Both of Saint Denis previous losses came by knockout, albeit facing much tougher competition than this. I think Saint Denis is significantly stronger and more skilled than Prepolec everywhere. He has been beat up badly and this is his opportunity to take control of a fight once again. Saint Denis is confident throwing hands with Prepolec but he is likely going to search for takedowns. Prepolec cannot combat Saint Denis’ great wrestling and offensive jiu jitsu. Saint Denis has wonderful grappling fundamentals but his size and strength make him a terrible opponent to compete with on the mat. I find it very likely that Prepolec gets choked out by Saint Denis in this fight. This is a brutal stylistic matchup to be taking on such short notice. His chance is much better than +750 odds would suggest but I think he is going to get ground to a pulp. Benoit Saint Denis by Round One Submission
- Nick: Benoit Saint-Denis is a jiu jitsu specialist with a solid wrestling base and an impressive arsenal of submissions at his disposal. Prior to back-to-back losses to Dustin Poirier and Renato Moicano, which came in his two most recent fights, he had strung together five straight wins under the UFC banner. He enters this fight with an impressive 13-3 record professionally. On the feet, he works well behind a powerful body kick. He is an aggressive striker who is at his most dangerous in the early rounds. His cardio seems to be somewhat of a question mark, but it is notable that he’s been taking down an elite level of competition. Kyle Prepolec is getting a chance to return to the UFC here as he is taking this fight on less than a weeks’ notice. He’s relatively well-rounded, but he prefers to compete at striking range. He has decent footwork and surprising power for his frame, but he’s somewhat slow for the division. Prepolec seems prepared for this opportunity, but he’s likely going to be outclassed no matter where this one goes. The line here is a bit ridiculous, especially given the fact Saint Denis has been inconsistent over his last few fights. Still, I expect he’ll run through Prepolec here. He’s going to be the much more dangerous fighter in this matchup, especially if he chooses to grapple. Benoit Saint Denis by Round One Submission
Natalia Silva -250 vs Alexa Grasso +200
- Anthony: Next is a fight at women’s flyweight between Alexa Grasso and Natalia Silva. The former champion Grasso is coming off a streak of three going against Valentina Shevchenko. Grasso performed exceptionally well and held her own against Shevchenko while standing, landing good boxing combinations as she always does. Shevchenko utilized much more grappling to win their last meeting at Noche UFC. Grasso should be prepared to face a new opponent here that will give her that same southpaw look as Shevchenko. Silva is on a six fight win streak since joining the UFC. She has looked incredible, outworking her opponents and winning convincingly with her kickboxing. She hits a bit harder than Grasso but also she’s the much more effective athlete when it comes to throwing her kicks. These two will put defense first and fight strategically tonight, throwing each and every punch with intent. I think that Silva will struggle to convincingly win this fight against Grasso on the feet. She is too reliant on feinting kicks with her hip and causing opponents to freeze. Grasso will not allow Silva to point fight and I expect her to land the better punches. We will see a more urgent effort out of Grasso only scheduled for three rounds. She is a good value bet as the underdog here at this price. This fight is very likely going to go the full fifteen minute distance. Alexa Grasso by Decision
- Nick: Natalia Silva is relatively well-rounded, with seven of her eighteen professional wins coming via submission and five coming via KO. She is coming off six-straight wins under the UFC banner and twelve consecutive wins overall. She most recently secured an impressive win via decision over Jessica Andrade, a fight in which she showcased dramatic improvements in her striking abilities. Lately, her shots have been more powerful, and her footwork is developing into a major strength for her when she’s striking at range. Alexa Grasso is coming off a loss to Valentina Shevchenko in which she lost her flyweight title. Grasso works well behind her jab, her footwork has come a long way since her UFC debut and she’s now considered one of the more talented pure strikers in the division. Her BJJ offensively has become a solid weapon for her as well, which was evident by her win over Shevchenko in which she captured the title. As talented as she is, she lacks the athleticism of some of the other top contenders in her weight class. Grasso has a considerable advantage in experience here, but this feels like two fighters’ who are seeing their careers head in opposite directions. While the price feels inflated, I still expect Silva can outstrike Grasso at range and then mix in her grappling if/when she needs to. Natalia Silva by Decision
Jose Aldo -190 vs Aiemann Zahabi +150
- Anthony: The featured bout comes between Aiemann Zahabi and Jose Aldo. These two bantamweights have agreed to meet at 145 pounds after Jose Aldo struggled to make weight on Friday. Aldo was 143 pounds on the scale while Zahabi had rehydrated to 142. This may not produce the best fight between fighters that are 37 and 38 years old. Aldo had spent his career at featherweight before moving down in hopes of perhaps winning two title belts. Zahabi is an opponent that Aldo should be able to comfortably outbox. Even at this stage of his career, Aldo is putting forth great effort in his fights and generally winning throughout striking exchanges. He is still quick to react and land his counters against opponents. Zahabi is the longer and more athletic fighter. He is on a five fight winning streak but we have not yet seen Zahabi opposed by a striker of this degree. Zahabi has also gone to decision in three of his last four while Aldo has seen the scorecards in six straight fights. This will almost certainly be another decision with both men moving up weight. It seems unlikely that either would find a finish unless by fortunate knockout. Zahabi will win some exchanges here late but I expect Aldo to lead the dance early. I have a suspicion that this weight miss is a bit calculated and a big boost to Aldo at this age. The judge’s will likely be deciding this one, so I do not think -190 is a great price to bet Aldo on the road in Canada. Jose Aldo by Decision
- Nick: A former champion, Aldo is 32-9 professionally, coming off a narrow decision loss to Mario Bautista back at UFC 307. While there is no denying the fact he is far past his prime, Aldo remains one of the more dangerous and pure strikers in the division. He throws powerful leg kicks, a snappy jab, and he does an excellent job stringing together lengthy combinations in which he works in body shots frequently. There is a chance he has a grappling advantage in this match-up, but at this stage in his career it’s very rare we see him lean on that part of his game. Aiemann Zahabi is a talented striker who can throw quick and effective combinations. He works well behind his jab and he generally does a good job staying out of danger and striking on the outside. He has underrated BJJ, but he’s often tentative in the cage and his lack of activity often costs him either defensively or on the scorecards.He’s on a four fight win-streak, coming off an impressive upset win over a tough out in Pedro Munhoz. Zahabi carries a lot of momentum into this match-up, but I still expect Aldo to show he’s a class above him here. Even in the twilight of his career, he should be the better fighter no matter where this one goes. Jose Aldo by Decision
Manon Fiorot -135 vs Valentina Shevchenko +115
- Anthony: The co-main event is for the women’s flyweight championship between Manon Fiorot and Valentina Shevchenko. I have been saying Fiorot would be a champion immediately upon joining the promotion, now winner of seven in a row. She beat Erin Blanchfield in her last fight via unanimous decision. Fiorot landed 172 significant strikes at a 47 percent accuracy rate. She is a lifelong martial artist just like Valentina and one of the most skilled boxers in the division. From the outside, Fiorot does very well using her size and constantly touching up her opponents. She is going to land more total strikes than the champion in this fight. Shevchenko will need to cut off Fiorot and find her way into more exchanges at close range. The muay thai exchanges will benefit Shevchenko and she would be wise to continue converting takedowns in close range. Shevchenko scored eight takedowns in her last appearance winning the title back from Alexa Grasso. She is a proven champion and while I think this fight is extremely close to call she should be able to take these late rounds from Fiorot. I think it will be very difficult for Fiorot to convincingly take two of these scorecards with her volume striking alone. Shevchenko is able to score big moments in her fights by shooting and landing powerful shots. She has better kicks than Fiorot and more overall weapons. It was shocking for me to see Fiorot was the betting favorite after closing +160 in her last performance. Shevchenko deserves respect for her championship pedigree and the market is now starting to drive her price back down. I do not feel confident betting either side of this fight as I am expecting to see a very close decision. And Still. Valentina Shevchenko by Decision
- Nick: Valentina Shevchenko, is one of the best female strikers to ever step in a cage. She’s a highly technical kickboxer with extremely powerful kicks and enough speed to land a variety of combinations against anyone in this division. She’s capable of leaning on her grappling against other competent strikers, which is exactly what she did her last time out where she re-captured the Women’s Flyweight Championship at UFC 306. Shevchenko isn’t as dominant as she was a few years ago, but she’s still elite in all facets of MMA and one of the best women fighters in the sport. Manon Fiorot is primarily a striker. She times her kicks well to set up her punches. She can still show power even as she backs away from her opponents and while she’d prefer to stand and trade, her grappling is more than sufficient as a decorated judoka. She has an excellent gas tank as she already has multiple five round wins under her belt. She looked outstanding her last time out in a win over Erin Blanchfield, picking her apart at striking range. This should be a competitive fight and it is certainly one I could see going either way. Shevchenko is going to have a major experience and grappling advantage here, but Fiorot is going to be the bigger and stronger fighter in this match-up. This is a low confidence play, but I’m seeing value on the current champion at underdog odds. Her ground game should be the difference in this match-up, especially if she can secure timely takedowns. And Still. Valentina Shevchenko by Decision
Belal Muhammad -190 vs Jack Della Maddalena +150
- Anthony: The main event decides the welterweight championship with Belal Muhammad defending against Jack Della Maddalena. This is the first fight for Muhammad as the defending champion. He is on a ten-fight winning streak after taking the belt off of Leon Edwards in his last appearance. Muhammad is a very boring champion with almost all of his victories coming by way of decision. He is fighting very smart, sticking to his gameplan and simply outworking every single opponent. His cardio is excellent, allowing Muhammad to push a high pace and constantly pressure opponents by moving forward. Muhammad has exceptional grappling skills both on the cage and on the mat. Della Maddalena will be worried about the takedown in this fight facing an opponent this caliber. Over the course of five rounds, Muhammad will constantly chip away and score points. Della Maddalena will rely on his boxing to earn the title here. Della Maddalena faced a similar grappling test in his last appearance versus Gilbert Burns. Throughout a majority of that fight Della Maddalena was controlled, but with one knee landing in the third round he was able to pull off the miracle upset. Della Maddalena has a good turtle guard and series of sweeps from bottom. He has showcased good escapes on the mat but Muhammad’s strength and grip will wear him out by round four of this fight tonight. It will need to be another knockout shot for Della Maddalena landing in between these periods in the clinch. He is going to need to land at least one knockdown and Belal has not been dropped throughout this entire win streak. Muhammad should be able to generally stay safe and find a way to keep attached to Della Maddalena. Muhammad as champion tells us all we need to know about the state of mixed martial arts. I was not impressed by his performance against Leon Edwards and none of his previous bouts were really all that dominant. I expect him to do enough in the later rounds to keep his title tonight. And Still. Belal Muhammad by Decision
- Nick: Belal Muhammad has a solid wrestling base and excellent weight distribution when he finds himself on top of his opponents. He’s not really a submission threat, but he’s very tough to stand up against once an opponent is grounded. His stand-up continues to improve, but his greatest strength as a fighter is his pressure and cardio. He never really seems to fade and he does a good job breaking his opponents down with continuous offense. He is coming off a career best performance in which he outclassed Leon Edwards over the course of five rounds to capture the UFC Welterweight Championship. He hasn’t lost a fight since 2019, and even at 36-years old, he seems to improve every time we see him compete. Jack Della Maddalena has shown highly technical striking ability in his short UFC tenure. He has excellent head movement and footwork, surprising power, and while his grappling hasn’t been tested extensively at this level, it seems he’s competent on the mat as well. He is coming off seven straight wins under the UFC banner, but there is no denying this match-up represents a major step up for him in terms of level of competition. Della Maddalena does an excellent job mixing in body shots to set up head strikes and his pressure and volume is difficult for most of his opponents to endure. That being said, if he overexerts himself it could open up opportunities for Muhammad to score takedowns here. Della Maddalena is the better striker in this match-up, so he’s live for an upset if he can score an opportunistic KO. That being said, I expect Muhammad to lean on his grappling as he stays a step ahead in this one. His striking continues to improve at a dramatic rate, and with Della Maddalena concerned with being taken down this fight should be somewhat competitive at striking range. And Still. Belal Muhammad by Decision
-Nick Marro
Twitter: @NickMarroDFS
-Anthony Marro
Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_
Photo: UFC.com