Happy Friday, baseball fans! Nick Marro here, providing you with my best bets for today’s (8/19) MLB slate. The weather is still heating up, and there’s a lot of clear value across the board as the markets are slow to adjust. I plan to provide these ‘Nick’s Picks’ articles about twice a week for the entirety of the 2022 season. I don’t like playing heavy juice, so all of my picks will be priced at line of (-150) or better. Feel free to reach out to me on Twitter with any questions.
We turned in a 2-1 record last time out, so we fell to a 37-35 record on the season. Considering the brutal performance that I put up in April, things have been a lot better than they seem. We have a solid Friday slate here with a lot of quality spots to consider. Let’s continue to build momentum tonight as we work through these dog days of summer.
Season Record: (37-35)
Texas Rangers @ Minnesota Twins @ 8:10 EST
Nick’s Pick: Texas Rangers Money Line, +120
Martin Perez comes into this start with a respectable 4.26 xFIP on the season, having allowed 1 ER or fewer in five of his last six starts. He’s holding both RHH and LHH to a sub .290 wOBA this season, and he’s posted a solid 1.20 WHIP to go along with an excellent 2.97 Road ERA. The Twins have been known to hit LHP well, but their projected starting lineup boasts a spotty .145 ISO and a .308 wOBA against lefties on the season.
Dylan Bundy comes into this start with a 4.92 xFIP, having allowed 3+ ER in four of his last five starts. This is by no means a confident play, but there seems to be very clear value on the Rangers here at an underdog price of +120 on the money line.
St. Louis Cardinals @ Arizona Diamondbacks @ 9:40 EST
Nick’s Pick: St. Louis Cardinals, Team Total Over 4.5 Runs (-130)
Tommy Henry has only recently been promoted to the MLB roster for the D’Backs, so it really shouldn’t come as a surprise that he’s been struggling. He comes into this start with a 7.04 xFIP, showing an 11% Walk Rate and a meager 12.3% Swinging Strike Rate. He’s allowed a combined 8 ER across his first three starts, but he’s actually been lucky not to allow more as he’s boasting a .208 BABIP which suggests he’s due for considerable regression.
The St. Louis Cardinals are arguably the best offense in baseball against LHP. Their projected starting lineup comes into this match-up with an outstanding .211 ISO against LHP. They have the best OPS in the MLB this season against LHP with a .804 and they rank 2nd in the MLB against LHP with a .458 SLG. We’re getting an excellent price of just -130 here to back the Over on their Team Total of just 4.5 Runs.
Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres @ 9:40 EST
Nick’s Pick: San Diego Padres, Team Total Over 4.5 Runs (-145)
Paolo Espino will be getting the start for the Nationals here, which is a big plus for Padres bats. He comes into this start with a spotty 4.99 xFIP, allowing a .230 ISO to RHH this season. He’s carrying an ugly 47% Hard Contact Rate and he’s allowed 4+ ER in three of his last four starts.
This Padres projected starting lineup has a solid .181 ISO against RHP this season. They’ve scored the 4th most Runs in the MLB since the All Star Break, and the middle of their new look batting order is arguably the best in the MLB against RHP. Given Espino’s struggles and the strength of this lineup, I’ll confidently back the Over on their 4.5 Run Implied Team Total here at a solid price of just -145.
-Nick Marro
Twitter: @NickMarroDFS