Happy Monday, baseball fans! Nick Marro here, providing you with my best bets for today’s (8/29) MLB slate. The weather is still hot, and there’s still plenty of clear value across the board as the markets are slow to adjust. I plan to provide these ‘Nick’s Picks’ articles about twice a week for the entirety of the 2022 season. I don’t like playing heavy juice, so all of my picks will be priced at line of (-150) or better. Feel free to reach out to me on Twitter with any questions.
We turned in a 2-1 record last time out, so we improved to a 42-39 record on the season. Considering the brutal performance that I put up in April, things have been a lot better than they seem. We have a solid Monday slate here with a lot of quality spots to consider. Let’s continue to build momentum tonight as we work through these dog days of summer.
Season Record: (42-39)
Boston Red Sox @ Minnesota Twins @ 7:40 EST
Nick’s Pick: Game Total, Over 8.5 Runs (-115)
Dylan Bundy comes into this start with a 5.11 xFIP, allowing a 43% Hard Contact Rate to opposing hitters. He’s in decent form, but he’s allowing a .191 ISO to RHH this season and historically he has struggled against Red Sox LHH, like Rafael Devers and Alex Verdugo. This Red Sox offense has scored 5+ Runs in three of their last four games played.
Bryan Bello is a talented young arm, but he’s still early on in his development. He is allowing a worse than .390 wOBA to both RHH and LHH so far this season. While these aren’t the worst arms on this slate, I do expect they both give up runs here. Additionally, the Red Sox and Twins bullpens have both been mediocre of late. I’ll take the Over on the Game Total of 8.5 Runs here at a reasonable price of -115.
New York Yankees @ Los Angeles Angels @ 9:38 EST
Nick’s Pick: New York Yankees, Team Total Over 4.5 Runs (-120)
This Yankees offense has been inconsistent lately, but they profile well in this match-up. Their projected starting lineup has a .200 ISO against LHH this season, and the 3rd best OPS in the MLB against LHP with a solid .798.
Jose Suarez is a below average LHP. He comes into this start with a shaky 4.89 xFIP. He’s allowing a near 40% Hard Contact Rate to opposing hitters as well as a 40% Fly Ball Rate. His 4.81 Home ERA is more than a full point worse than his 3.66 ERA on the Road. I’ll back the Yankees to break out of their slump here, taking the Over on their 4.5 Team Total at a reasonable price of -120.
Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona DiamondBacks @ 9:40 EST
Nick’s Pick: Philadelphia Phillies, Team Total Over 4.5 Runs (-145)
Madison Bumgarner is a shell of the LHP he was in his prime. He comes into this start with a 5.50 xFIP, allowing a .213 ISO to RHH. He’s allowing more than 45% Hard Contact to opposing hitters, a worse than 40% Fly Ball Rate, and his Swinging Strike Rate has dipped to an ugly 7.8%. He has allowed 5+ ER in three consecutive starts and he’s allowed 4+ ER in each of his last five outings.
The Phillies offense has a .753 OPS since the All -Star Break. Their projected starting lineup has a near .190 ISO against LHP, and they have scored 6+ Runs in four of their last six games played. I’ll comfortably take the Over on the Phillies team total of 4.5 here, at a reasonable price of -145.
-Nick Marro
Twitter: @NickMarroDFS