Happy Tuesday, baseball fans! Nick Marro here, providing you with my best bets for today’s (8/23) MLB slate. The weather is still hot, and there’s still plenty of clear value across the board as the markets are slow to adjust. I plan to provide these ‘Nick’s Picks’ articles about twice a week for the entirety of the 2022 season. I don’t like playing heavy juice, so all of my picks will be priced at line of (-150) or better. Feel free to reach out to me on Twitter with any questions.
We turned in a 1-2 record last time out, so we fell to a 38-37 record on the season. Considering the brutal performance that I put up in April, things have been a lot better than they seem. We have a solid Friday slate here with a lot of quality spots to consider. Let’s continue to build momentum tonight as we work through these dog days of summer.
Season Record: (38-37)
San Francisco Giants @ Detroit Tigers @ 7:10 EST
Nick’s Pick: San Francisco Giants Run Line, -1.5 (-125)
Drew Hutchinson comes into this start with a 5.68 xFIP on the season. His 4.71 Home ERA is more than a full point worse than his 3.64 ERA on the Road. He’s allowing a .810 OPS to left-handed hitters and he’s running into a lefty-heavy Giants lineup here as he boasts a terrible 7.9% Swinging Strike Rate.
Carlos Rodon has been excellent this season, entering this start with a 3.66 xFIP and a 31.7% K Rate. He’s holding both RHH and LHH to a sub .260 wOBA and he’s posted a Quality Start in three of his last four appearances. The Tigers projected starting lineup has just a .295 wOBA against LHP this season. Given the considerable edge for San Francisco in both Starting Pitching and offense here, I’ll comfortably back them on the -1.5 Run Line at a price of just -125.
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals @ 8:10 EST
Nick’s Pick: Arizona Diamondbacks, Team Total Over 4.5 Runs (-110)
Jonathan Heasley comes into this start with 5.98 xFIP. He’s allowing a terrible 45.5% Hard Contact Rate, which doesn’t pair well with his equally dicey 41% Fly Ball Rate allowed. He’s posted a 1.56 WHIP this season, and he’s allowed 2+ HRs in back-to-back starts.
He’s allowing a brutal .304 ISO to LHH this season and this Diamondbacks projected starting lineup features six left-handed hitters. The Diamondbacks bullpen ranks 24th in the MLB with a shaky 4.31 ERA. We’re getting a solid -110 on the Over of Arizona’s 4.5 Run Team Total here. It’s a solid play on paper.
Washington Nationals @ Seattle Mariners @ 10:10 EST
Nick’s Pick: Seattle Mariners, Team Total Over 4.5 Runs (EVEN)
Erick Fedde comes into this start with a 5.35 xFIP on the season. He’s having a terrible month of August, with a 7.11 ERA posted across four starts. His 5.53 Road ERA is more than a full point higher than his 4.47 ERA at Home this season and there’s little reason to believe that these numbers are going to improve.
This Mariners offense is averaging more than 6.8 Runs Scored across their last six games played. We’re getting a favorable EVEN money price on the over of their 4.5 Run Team Total in this spot. I expect they can get to Fedde here and then the mediocre Nationals bullpen after that.
-Nick Marro
Twitter: @NickMarroDFS