When Matthew Stafford was a member of the Detroit Lions, there was a divide between fans as to whether the team should keep or trade the QB for draft capital to jumpstart the rebuild process. Now with Jared Goff at the helm, fans are starting to have deja vu regarding the upcoming season.
Many Goff doubters were asking for the former number 1 pick to be replaced after last season, but the Lions decided to address other glaring needs at the draft and give him one more shot to earn a long term role. In hindsight, it was likely the smart move as bringing in another quarterback without weapons or a defense around him would be setting them up for failure.
Now with a well-balanced offense, quarterback is the clear weak spot on this Lions team, which creates several scenarios for how this season could play out.
First case scenario: Goff plays bad, Lions win less than 7 games
Everyone knows what needs to happen if this result occurs. Goff is eligible to be cut without much cap penalty after this year, and that’s the expected outcome. His deadcap hit drops from $41M in 2022 to $10M in 2023. With a strong offensive line in front of him, and playmakers that other QBs would love to have, his time in Detroit would essentially be over if he fails to earn on field wins this season.
Winning less than seven games this year puts the Lions in a favorable draft position. The 2023 quarterback class is stacked with talent compared to last year and the Lions will likely be in the market to draft one. With Brad Holmes as GM, not only do many expect him to draft a quarterback, but to also use draft capital to trade up and get his favorite one.
The top two quarterbacks in the class are Alabama’s Bryce Young and Ohio State’s CJ Stroud. Staying put likely gets a quarterback such as Kentucky’s Will Levis or Stanford’s Tanner Mcgee, with the Lions using the rest of their picks on defense as well.
Second case scenario: Goff plays bad, Lions make playoffs/barely miss
If Goff struggles, it’s quite clear that he needs to be replaced regardless of whether the season is successful or not. There are two options that the Lions could use: draft a QB or trade for a QB in the offseason.
Last year there were more than a few NFL teams that had their starting quarterback on the trading block, and that possibility could emerge again this upcoming offseason. If the right QB decides he wants a trade, or an NFL team decides to move on like the Lions did with Stafford, expect Detroit to be one of the first teams on the phone.
Third case scenario: Goff plays well, Lions win less than 7 games
Goff haters will hate this, but expect the Lions to keep Goff as the starting QB till 2023 in this situation. I don’t expect the Lions to win less than 6 games, but if they do then it’s because of the question marks on defense. If a QB isn’t an option, I fully expect them to draft multiple defensive players (especially linebackers) and add some o-line depth. In this scenario the Lions likely draft a QB and sit him for the year behind Goff like Kansas City did with Patrick Mahomes.
Fourth case scenario: Goff plays well, Lions make playoffs/barely misses
Dont’ be surprised if this ends up being the outcome of this season. Goff is on a mission this year and won’t go down without a fight. Expect him to have this team contending in the NFC North this year.
Detroit has two firsts next year, and those can be used on linebackers, secondary help, or as trade bait for veterans. Making the playoffs would improve the confidence in this young team and quickly change the narrative around Detroit in both the short and long term.
This team is built to hang with any team, and with one of the easier playing schedules in the NFL, Goff is looking to prove that his role in Detroit is his to keep.
-Robert Martin
Twitter: @Defense_Rob
Photo: All-Pro Reels. This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic license.