Happy Friday, baseball fans! Nick Marro here, providing you with my best bets for today’s (7/22) MLB slate. We’re coming out of the All Star Break, the weather is still heating up, and there’s a lot of clear value across the board as the markets are slow to adjust. I plan to provide these ‘Nick’s Picks’ articles about twice a week for the entirety of the 2022 season. I don’t like playing heavy juice, so all of my picks will be priced at line of (-150) or better. Feel free to reach out to me on Twitter with any questions.
We turned in a 1-2 record last time out, so we fell to a flat 30-30 record on the season. Considering the brutal performance I put up in April, things have been a lot better than they seem. We have a solid Friday slate here with a lot of quality spots to consider. Let’s continue to build momentum tonight as we work through these dog days of summer.
Season Record: (30-30)
New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles @ 7:10 EST
Nick’s Pick: New York Yankees, Team Total, Over 4.5 Runs (-130)
Tyler Wells is due for considerable regression as his 5.34 xFIP sits nearly two full points higher than his 3.38 ERA. July has been his worst month of the season so far statistically and his .244 BABIP suggests there’s a good chance he’s been a lot more lucky than good.
This Yankees offense has scored the most runs in baseball this season with 504. They’ve also scored the most so far in July with 121. Moreover, they lead the league in OPS (.774) and Home Runs (160). Additionally, their projected starting lineup boasts a solid .193 ISO against RHP this season. There’s no denying Wells has been solid for these Orioles, but I expect regression to hit him hard in this spot. I’m comfortably backing the Yankees on the Over of their team total of 4.5, at a more than reasonable -130.
Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers @ 8:10 EST
Nick’s Pick: Milwaukee Brewers, Run Line, -1.5 (-110)
Antonio Senzatela comes into this start carrying a shaky 4.84 xFIP, allowing 40% Hard Contact to opposing hitters. He’s allowed 3+ ER in three of last four outings and he’s been surprisingly worse away from Coors this season, posting a 6.86 ERA on the Road. The Brewers projected starting lineup features five batters with a .190 or better ISO against RHP in 2022. They’ve been solid hitting at Home, and I fully expect them to put up some Runs against Senzatela in this match-up.
Corbin Burnes comes into this start with an outstanding 3.30 xFIP and a 33% K Rate. The Rockies offense has been much worse on the Road and I expect them to struggle in this match-up. I usually don’t like betting Run Lines for Home Teams as they don’t always get to hit in the 9th. However, there is clear value on Milwaukee’s -1.5 here at a very fair price of just -115.
Houston Astros @ Seattle Mariners 10:10 EST
Nick’s Pick: Houston Astros Team Total, Over 4.5 Runs (+110)
Marco Gonzales comes into this start with an ugly 5.55 xFIP and an uninspiring 7.7% Swinging Strike Rate. He’s due for considerable regression as his xFIP sits more than two full points higher than his 3.50 ERA, and I expect we see that here in a tough match-up against the Astros.
Houston’s projected starting lineup is carrying an impressive .198 ISO against LHP since the start of 2021. Yordan Alvarez and Jose Altuve have recently returned from injuries, and the Astros have scored the third most Runs in MLB so far in July with 91. I’m a bit surprised we’re getting a plus money price of +110 on their team total over 4.5 Runs. That’s the play.
-Nick Marro
Twitter: @NickMarroDFS