Happy Wednesday, baseball fans! Nick Marro here, providing you with my best bets for today’s (6/15) MLB slate. The weather is warming up across the league and there’s already a lot of clear value as the markets are slow to adjust. I plan to provide these ‘Nick’s Picks’ articles about twice a week for the entirety of the 2022 season. I don’t like playing heavy juice, so all of my picks will be priced at line of (-150) or better. Feel free to reach out to me on Twitter with any questions.
We went 1-2 last time out, so we fell to a spotty 17-20 record on the season. Considering the brutal 0-6 start, things have been a bit better than they seem. We have a solid Wednesday slate here with a lot of quality spots to consider. Let’s build some momentum tonight as we head into the dog days of summer.
Season Record: (17-20)
Atlanta Braves @ Washington Nationals @ 7:05 EST
Nick’s Pick: Atlanta Braves, Run line, (-1.5) (-120)
Spencer Strider comes into this start with a solid 3.56 xFIP and an outstanding 36.8% K Rate so far this season. He’s still developing as a prospect, but he’s already been extremely impressive since he was promoted to the MLB rotation. The Nationals projected starting lineup has been mostly mediocre, coming into this match-up with an ugly .135 ISO and just a .306 wOBA against RHP.
Erick Fedde comes into this match-up with a shaky 4.97 xFIP, having allowed 3+ ER in three consecutive starts. The Braves projected starting lineup has a .172 ISO against RHP this season. They’ve averaged 8.5 runs scored over their past four games played, and there’s really no denying they are one of the hottest teams in baseball.
Atlanta will be looking for their 14th consecutive win here. While the (-180) ML feels a bit pricey, I’ll happily latch onto the -1.5 Run line at an excellent price of just -120.
Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays @ 7:07 EST
Nick’s Pick: Toronto Blue Jays, Team Total Over 5.5 Runs (-130)
Bruce Zimmermann has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball, allowing 5+ ER in four of his last five starts. He’s carrying a shaky 4.71 xFIP and allowing a .242 ISO to RHH and a brutal .415 ISO to LHH so far in 2022. The Blue Jays offense is excellent against LHP, their projected starting lineup boasts a .360 wOBA. Additionally, Toronto is averaging 6.6 Runs scored over their last five games played.
Regardless of whether or not they choose to open the roof in the Rogers Centre, there is value on the Blue Jays team total over 5.5 Runs at a favorable price of just -130. Whether you favor recent results or season long statistics, the Jays are primed to score a lot of runs in this match-up. As a team, Baltimore has a terrible 5.35 ERA so far in June.
Cleveland Guardians @ Colorado Rockies @ 8:40 EST
Nick’s Pick: Game Total, Over 11.5 Runs (-115)
Konnor Pilkington hasn’t been terrible, but he’s due for considerable regression as his 5.48 xFIP is nearly two full points higher than his 3.57 ERA. He’s allowing a 41% fly ball rate, which could cause trouble for him as he pitches in Coors field for the first time in his young career. The Rockies are unsurprisingly a much more dangerous offense at home. They have the 2nd best home OPS in the NL at .786. They also have the best home batting average in the MLB at a solid .275.
Austin Gomber has been struggling of late, carrying a spotty 4.89 xFIP and allowing a .216 ISO to RHH. He has a 6.21 ERA at Home this season and a terrible 9.00 ERA so far in the month of June. At 11.5 Runs the game total may seem inflated here, but with two mediocre SPs in Coors I’m more than happy to take the Over at just -115.
-Nick Marro
Twitter: @NickMarroDFS