Happy Friday, baseball fans! Nick Marro here, providing you with my best bets for today’s (6/10) MLB slate. The weather is warming up across the league and there’s already a lot of clear value as the markets are slow to adjust. I plan to provide these ‘Nick’s Picks’ articles about twice a week for the entirety of the 2022 season. I don’t like playing heavy juice, so all of my picks will be priced at line of (-150) or better. Feel free to reach out to me on Twitter with any questions.
We went 3-0 last time out, so we improved to a spotty 16-18 record on the season. Considering the brutal 0-6 start, things have been a bit better than they seem. We have a solid Friday slate here with a lot of quality spots to consider. Let’s build some momentum tonight as we head into a new month.
Season Record: (16-18)
Toronto Blue Jays @ Detroit Tigers @ 7:10 EST
Nick’s Pick: Blue Jays, Team Total, Over 5.5 Runs (+105)
Elvin Rodriguez was shelled for 10 ER his last time out against the Yankees. He was blatantly tipping pitches in that spot, but even if he corrects those errors, I don’t have much confidence in him here. He managed a spotty 3.57 AAA ERA before he was promoted to the MLB roster and he has a shaky 5.03 xFIP so far at the MLB level this season.
The Blue Jays offense has the 3rd best ISO in the AL this season with a respectable .168. They have the 2nd most runs in the AL so far in June with 55 and they are 2nd behind only the Yankees with 18 HRs. As this offense continues to heat up, there should be solid value on their team totals against mediocre pitching. We’re getting plus money on their total over 5.5 Runs here at an excellent price of +105. I expect they tag Rodriguez in this spot, and they’ll also have upside against a shaky Detroit bullpen.
Milwaukee Brewers @ Washington Nationals @ 7:05 EST
Nick’s Pick: Milwaukee Brewers, Run Line, (-1.5) (+110)
Erick Fedde has allowed a combined 10 ER over his past two starts and he’s sporting an ugly 5.09 Home ERA so far this season. He seems to be in terrible form and he’s in another tough spot here against the Brewers.
Aaron Ashby has been impressive for Milwaukee, coming into this start with a solid 3.22 xFIP and a 30.5% K Rate. The Brewers have been cold offensively, but they just reactivated Willy Adames and Hunter Renfroe off the IL.
The Nationals have the 2nd worst record in the NL at just 21-38. The Brewers are still first place in the NL Central in spite of the fact they were swept by the Phillies and I expect them to bounce back in a big way here. At a plus money price of +110, I’ll take Milwaukee to cover the -1.5 Run line. Ashby has been good, Fedde has been bad, and the Brewers have one of the best bullpens in baseball.
Baltimore Orioles @ Kansas City Royals @ 8:10 EST
Nick’s Pick: Game Total, Over 9.5 Runs (EVEN)
Jonathan Heasley is due for dramatic regression as he’s carrying a 7.08 xFIP into this start, which is nearly 3 full points higher than his mediocre 4.62 ERA. He has allowed 3+ ER in four consecutive starts and he’s allowing more than 41% Hard Contact.
Bruce Zimmermann is starting for the Orioles here. He’s allowing a brutal .343 ISO to LHH and a .229 ISO to RHH. He has allowed 4+ ER in four consecutive starts and there’s an argument to be made that he’s one of the worst SPs in the MLB.
Neither of these offenses have much appeal statistically, but the Royals have scored 7+ in back-to-back games and the Orioles have scored 5+ in their last two games played. The 9.5 Run total seems a bit high compared to the other games on this slate, but I’m happy to bet the over at a price of EVEN.
-Nick Marro
Twitter: @NickMarroDFS