Happy Saturday, baseball fans! Nick Marro here, providing you with my best bets for today’s (5/21) MLB slate. The weather is finally warming up across the league and there’s already a lot of clear value as the markets are slow to adjust. I plan to provide these ‘Nick’s Picks’ articles at least twice a week for the entirety of the 2022 season. I don’t like playing heavy juice, so all of my picks will be priced at line of (-150) or better. Feel free to reach out to me on Twitter with any questions.
We went 1-2 last time out, so we sit at a shaky 8-14 record on the season. Considering the brutal 0-6 start, things haven’t been quite as bad as they seem. We have a loaded Saturday slate here with a lot of quality spots to consider.
Season Record: (8-14)
Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins @ 6:10 EST
Nick’s Pick: Atlanta Braves Money line, 5 Inning Line (-135)
Kyle Wright has been excellent so far this season, sporting a 3.60 xFIP and a 29.2% K Rate. He’s holding both RHH and LHH to a sub .280 wOBA and both RHH and LHH to a sub .100 ISO. He’s been a bit shaky so far this month, but his .304 BABIP suggests that’s mostly because he’s been the victim of some bad luck. I’m expecting him to bounce back here against the same Marlins offense he dominated back on 4/22 where he K’d 11 Miami batters across 6 scoreless IP.
Elieser Hernandez has decent K upside, but he really doesn’t do well when it comes to limiting damage. He’s carrying a 6.16 xFIP into this start, allowing a worse than .200 ISO to both RHH and LHH. This Braves offense has the 2nd most HRs in the National League with 50 on the season. Both of these teams have decent bullpens, so I see the later innings as mostly irrelevant here. I’ll happily back the Braves on the money line over the first five innings at an excellent price of -135.
Washington Nationals @ Milwaukee Brewers @ 7:10 EST
Nick’s Pick: Milwaukee Brewers, Team Total, Over 4.5 Runs (-105)
The Brewers have scored 7 runs in back-to-back games. Tonight, they’re facing off against a mediocre arm in Patrick Corbin and on the season, they’re 4th in the National League with 179 Runs Scored.
Corbin comes into this start with a spotty 5.07 xFIP on the season. He’s allowing a terrible 51.2% Hard Contact Rate so far in 2022 as well as a terrible 6.02 xERA. The Brewers have the 2nd best Home OPS in baseball with a healthy .786 on the season. They also have the most HRs in the National League with 52. Additionally, the Nationals bullpen is ranked 27th in the MLB with a spotty 4.31 ERA. Even if Corbin does decent here, there is upside against this Washington bullpen. I’m a bit surprised at the value we’re getting on the team total over 4.5 here at near even money. I’ll happily back this over.
Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles @ 7:05 EST
Nick’s Pick: Game Total, Under 8.5 Runs (EVEN)
In spite of the Orioles’ mediocre pitching staff, Camden Yards ranks 19th in the MLB with a .925 RUNS Park Factor. This is no longer the hitter’s park it was last season, ranking 25th in the MLB with a .682 HR Park Factor.
Kyle Bradish has been a bright spot for the Baltimore staff, coming into this match-up with a respectable 4.15 xFIP and a 25% K Rate on the season. His surface stats should continue to improve as he’s carrying an extremely unlucky .352 BABIP. The Rays projected starting lineup has a terrible .267 wOBA against RHP in 2022.
Jeffery Springs comes into this start with an excellent 2.25 ERA in May, coming off a 76 pitch outing as he continues to become stretched out as a starter. He’s carrying a solid 3.70 xFIP on the season on an excellent 25% K Rate. He’s holding both RHH and LHH to a sub .300 wOBA. The Baltimore offense has been one of the worst in baseball with a .289 wOBA against LHP and a terrible 27% K Rate. This game has one of the higher implied totals on the slate at 8.5 Runs. I’ll happily back the Under here at Even money.
-Nick Marro
Twitter: @NickMarroDFS