UFC Vegas 55 Preview & Betting Guide

UFC Vegas 55: Holm vs Vieira – 5.21.2021 – Fight Predictions and Analysis

Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC Vegas 55: Holm vs Vieira. Last weekend proved to be a tough card from the betting perspective, but action returns to the UFC Apex today with another fresh slate of exciting fights. Our analysis includes a pick for every bout from Dynes Sports contributors Anthony Marro and Nicholas Marro.

As coverage continues, we will keep our records up to date below. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick though as records will not reflect confidence. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few.

Current Record

Anthony: 121-74-0 (Last Year 299-200-5)
Nick: 128-67-0 (Last Year 305-194-5)

*Fight odds were last updated 5-21-2022 at 1am EST

Preliminary Card- Starts 4:00pm EST

Elise Reed -160 vs Sam Hughes +130

Anthony: The card today opens with a women’s strawweight bout between Sam Hughes and Elise Reed. Hughes last fought just over a month ago, beating Istela Nunes by majority decision. In that bout she was getting pieced up early but relied on her wrestling and cardio advantages to secure a win and save her spot on the roster. There is really nothing I like about Hughes on the feet but clearly her wrestling can be utilized effectively to win fights here and there. Reed is going to be the better striker in this matchup, throwing with more power and being able to utilize effective kickboxing to win minutes on the feet. It will once again be a fight determined by Hughes’ ability to grapple and I am not expecting her to find those takedowns as easy as she did in April. In Reed’s last fight against Cory McKenna she defended four of seven takedowns and won by split decision. This is going to be a very close fight but I think Reed ends up getting her hand raised by touching up Hughes just enough. Elise Reed by Decision
Nick: This is a low-level matchup at strawweight and not a fight I’m particularly interested in. Reed is a tough and gritty military vet who is more than willing to take shots in order to throw them. She has decent footwork and her boxing is somewhat refined. She doesn’t carry much power, but she throws compact strikes and does a good job mixing kicks into her combinations. She’s coming off a career-best win over Cory McKenna, a fight in which she picked McKenna apart at range and avoided any takedown attempts from a superior grappler. She did a good job utilizing a heavy side kick to control the range of the fight. Hughes is fairly well rounded, tough and persistent. However, offensively she really doesn’t carry any stand out skills. She comes into this fight off of an impressive win over Isleta Nunes, a fight in which she was dominated early but started to take over as Nunes’ gas tank began to deplete. She recently shifted to an excellent camp in Sanford MMA. I fully expect her to continue to show improvements under a gifted coach in Sayif Saud. Given the low level nature of this matchup, it’s tough to feel confident either way. I’m siding with the favorite here. Reed seems more dangerous on the feet which is where I expect the majority of this fight to take place. Elise Reed by Decision

Felipe Colares -180 vs Chase Hooper +145

Anthony: Next up is a fight at featherweight between Felipe Colares and Chase Hooper. This is a great piece of matchmaking, testing the young prospect Hooper who has gone 2-2 since joining the UFC. He has showcased some incredibly slick grappling but remains rather one dimensional apart from that area of his game. At just 22 years old he still has a lot of room for growth. This has been the longest layoff of Hooper’s young career and I think that extra time spent developing will certainly benefit him. Particularly helpful will be the time he has spent honing his striking with Wonderboy Thompson. Colares is well rounded and certainly holds an advantage over Hooper on the feet. He will put the pressure on Hooper and look to close the distance early and often. Colares has landed a takedown in every fight since joining the promotion but if he is smart that trend ends today. I am taking Hooper here because I refuse to fade him at dog money, but it is not a confident pick in the slightest. Instead I will look at betting that this fight goes a full fifteen minutes. Colares has gone to decision in six consecutive bouts and I don’t think he has the power to finish Hooper after moving back up from 135 pounds. Chase Hooper by Decision
Nick: Colares is a BJJ blackbelt with decent striking ability, but we really haven’t seen him tested extensively against a high level of competition. He’s coming off a hard-fought decision loss to Chris Gutierrez, a fight he was mostly picked apart at range. Hooper has extremely advanced grappling ability for a 22-year-old. If he can take this fight to the mat, he’s most likely going to look for Colares’ back to score a submission. Five of Hooper’s ten professional wins have come via submission. It is notable that Hooper recently started training with one of the best strikers in the UFC in Stephen Thompson. While I don’t expect we see dramatic improvements in that facet of his game, we should see some as Hooper is very young and developing. In many of Hooper’s fights he was dramatically outclassed on the feet. It’s going to be a key for him here to hang in striking exchanges if he’ll have any hope of taking this fight to the mat where he’s most comfortable. I could absolutely see this one going either way, but I’m siding with the underdog. My confidence is low in this one, but I expect we see considerable improvements in Hooper’s striking and he eventually finds the submission he’ll need. I don’t have much confidence in either fighter here, so this is a value play more than anything else. Chase Hooper by Round Three Submission

Jonathan Martinez -250 vs Vince Morales +200

Anthony: This should be a very exciting bantamweight matchup with Vince Morales taking on Jonathan Martinez. Morales has won two fights in a row but the level of competition has not been all that impressive. Martinez is a good test for him here, a higher-level opponent that also likes to stand and trade. Morales does well attacking both the head and body in fights but his volume is lacking just a bit. He can really sit down on punches and land with great power for a 135er but in terms of scoring favor with the judges his style is not the best. I think on the feet Martinez proves to be the much faster of these two. As he continues to add weapons to his arsenal I believe Martinez is a name you want to know at 135 pounds. This fight could go a lot of different ways and a finish is by no means guaranteed, but I see Martinez getting his hand raised one way or another here tonight. He does a great job throwing out kicks as well and targeting the lower half opponents. Martinez is also the more experienced fighter at this level and seems to be the better judge of angles and distance. Jonathan Martinez by Round Three KO
Nick: Martinez is fairly well rounded, but mostly excels on the feet. He’s a traditional boxer with solid head movement and footwork. He throws meaningful strikes and he does an excellent job mixing up his combinations to keep his opponents guessing. He is excellent at striking heavily out of breaks and he’s shown sneaky power in spite of his wiry frame. Morales is a decent striker, fighting out an excellent camp via Syndicate MMA. He’s been criticized at times for his lack of volume/aggressiveness on the feet. He seems to wait for the fight to come to him rather than engaging or dictating the pace. He’s coming off impressive wins over Louis Smolka, Alejandro Perez and Drako Rodriguez, but this certainly feels like a step up in competition for him here. In a fight I expect to primarily take place on the feet, I expect Martinez to lead the charge. As long as he paces himself and works mostly striking on the outside at range, he should be able to cruise to a victory. Jonathan Martinez by Decision

Omar Morales -140 vs Uros Medic +115

Anthony: I am expecting a competitive lightweight fight here next between Omar Morales and Uros Medic. Morales is returning to the division today after three bouts at 145 pounds. He had a solid stretch of fights in the UFC thus far but his recent loss to Jonathan Pearce was certainly a bit concerning. He was outmuscled in that matchup and now draws an even bigger opponent back up in weight. Medic is an explosive striker. He suffered his first career loss against Jalin Turner last fall but it is unlikely he deals with grappling pressure similar to that again today. Morales tends to take a boxing heavy approach and it will be interesting to see him against a high-power southpaw like Medic. The defense for Morales has been outstanding, absorbing only 37 percent of his opponents’ significant strikes. That could allow him to extend this into a more drawn out and technical kickboxing match. However, these are two potent finishers and Medic has the advantage in terms of power and durability in my opinion. I expect high pressure and output from Medic early making him very live to pull off the upset here. I like the value of him as the underdog and expect him to clip Morales with something meaningful within the first ten minutes of the fight. Uros Medic by Round One KO
Nick: Morales is an effective striker that does a good job mixing kicks into his combinations. He trains out of an excellent camp in Sanford MMA. He is coming off a hard fought loss to Jonathan Pearce in which he fell via submission in the second round. He carries a black belt in BJJ, but there’s no denying he’s most content to stand and trade on the feet. In spite of his spotty resume, Medic is a skilled striker who is clearly gifted in terms of his technical abilities. He throws meaningful shots and pushes a serious pace but he sometimes over-exerts himself and gets stuck in questionable positions. He has never fought to a decision. His hyper-aggressive style allows him to take out inferior competition but at the UFC level he’s going to need to learn to pace himself. I expect Medic to look solid here early, but Morales’ technical abilities to keep him out of significant danger. I’m also encouraged by the fact that Morales is moving back up to 155 here. He looked much better at weigh-ins than he has in his last few fights. I expect his durability to service him well here early until he can pull away as Medic starts to fade. Omar Morales by Round Three KO

Jailton Almeida -550 vs Parker Porter +400

Anthony: This is a funny heavyweight matchup between Jailton Almeida and Parker Porter. There is a jarring difference between these two fighters in terms of build… and body fat. Almeida is moving up from light heavyweight in order to remain active. He is a massive favorite despite giving up forty pounds to Porter yesterday on the scales. Almeida is a problem. He is a dominant force on the mat, taking down opponents and utilizing incredible control to find himself wins by both submission and knockout. He is a jiu jitsu black belt and one of the most promising athletes to emerge from Dana White’s Contender Series. Porter is known to mix in the takedown himself, but we have yet to see an opponent attempt a shot on him since joining the UFC. Almeida might have to work a bit to get Porter to the ground in this matchup, but once on top he should dominate again despite the size discrepancy. Porter is a high-volume striker that could put it on Almeida when standing but as the odds indicate these two won’t be upright for long. In his two octagon appearances, Almeida had shot for a takedown within the first ten seconds of each bout. There is no value on Almeida as a straight bet with odds this juicy. I think he dominates early in this matchup and would probably look at betting him to get the finish inside one round. Jailton Almeida by Round One Submission
Nick: Jailton Almeida is coming off a dominant UFC debut win over Danilo Marques via first round ground and pound. He’s extremely explosive and athletic with solid striking ability and outstanding BJJ. Almeida was awarded a contract following an impressive Contender Series win over a highly regarded prospect in Nasrudin Nasrudinov. Nasrudinov is a talented wrestler, but Almeida overpowered him. He showed excellent weight control and sweep ability and dominated most grappling exchanges in that matchup. He showed a very high fight IQ for a debutant, mixing in front kicks as a means to control distance on the feet. There’s really nothing exciting about Parker Porter when you watch him on film, but he does have power in his strikes and a surprisingly decent gas tank given his visible lack of athleticism. Porter has shown solid durability and surprisingly technical boxing ability so far in the UFC. Many felt he was only awarded a roster spot as a replacement fighter due to COVID, but he’s now coming off three consecutive wins. Porter has done a good job exceeding expectations at the UFC level, but I feel he’s running into a buzzsaw here. Almeida is a natural 205’er, but he didn’t look much smaller than Porter when these two faced off. The line does feel a bit wide given the jump up in weight, but Almeida is the pick. I expect he can ground Porter quickly and work him for a submission. Jailton Almeida by Round One Submission

Joseph Holmes -210 vs Alen Amedovski +165

Anthony: To close out the prelims we have a matchup at middleweight between Joseph Holmes and Alen Amedovski. This is one of the lower-level fights on the card this evening. Holmes made his UFC debut in January and lost a decision to Jamie Pickett. I do not imagine that loss aging very well at all but Holmes does at least have some solid skills both on the ground and in the stand up that he displayed. Holmes also boasts a six-inch advantage in height and reach over his opponent Amedovski today. The only advantage Amedovski has over Holmes is his power. He is known for getting into brawls and often ending fights if able to connect with his big, looping overhands. I really do not see a good reason to back Amedovski at odds like this. Holmes has been so much more active, fighting seven times since Amedovski last stepped foot in the octagon. I do not hold Holmes in a very high regard but think this is an easy matchup for him given what we know about these two fighters. Joseph Holmes by Round Two KO
Nick: It seems Holmes is primarily a striker, but he’s well-rounded with five of his seven professional wins coming via submission. He has KO power, but he really hasn’t found much success against UFC level competition. He fell to a mediocre middleweight in Jamie Pickett in his UFC debut via decision. He was outclassed pretty much everywhere, mostly ground up against the cage and unable to get any offense going. Alen Amedovski hasn’t fought since he fell via KO to John Phillips back in 2019. He usually comes out aggressive and attempts to end fights quickly. It’s very difficult to know what to expect from him here given the extensive lay off. I’m not particularly high on either of the fighters in this matchup. However, I feel Holmes has more paths to victory. Holmes should be able to use his length to stay out of danger on the feet and I expect he’ll have a considerable grappling advantage if this fight hits the mat. This is another low confidence pick as this is a low-level matchup by UFC standards. However, I’m siding with the favorite. Holmes’ length and grappling advantages should be enough to score a win here. Joseph Holmes by Round Two Submission

Main Card- Starts 7:00pm EST

Jun Yong Park -210 vs Eryk Anders +165

Anthony: Eryk Anders will take on Jun Yong Park at middleweight to open tonight’s main card. Anders lacks any real impressive victories, and I am having a difficult time gauging his true ceiling. He has only won a single fight since the start of 2020 and does not offer much apart from his explosive striking. Jun Yong Park is a solid fighter in this division, coming off a Fight of the Night loss to Gregory Rodrigues. He neglected to use his grappling in that matchup and ultimately ended up paying the price. I think we see the Iron Turtle get back to what works here, taking down Anders and putting on the pressure in this matchup. Park is very accurate taking opponents down when he elects to do so. He has been the far more consistent fighter of these two and already accrued some very impressive wins in his short time with the UFC. Anders is one of the more live underdogs on this card but I think Jun Yong Park is the rightful favorite. I probably will not get to the window at these odds, but I certainly think he has more paths to victory than the one-dimensional Anders. Jun Yong Park by Decision
Nick: Jun Yong Park has decent striking ability, but he’s likely going to rely on his grappling here to avoid taking too much damage. Eryk Anders recently switched camp to Fight Ready, which represents a major upgrade over his time spent training in his home state of Alabama. He’s a dangerous striker with decent ability everywhere, but outside of his general power and athleticism he doesn’t seem to have any standout skill. Park is somewhat slow and ploddy on the feet, but he does a good job keeping pressure on his opponents and forcing them to fight off their back foot. Park averages 2.6 takedowns per fifteen minutes. Anders has a solid 76 percent takedown defense, but most of his fights in the UFC have come against strikers. As long as Park is persistent in his pursuit of takedowns here, I see him getting this done on the scorecards. Jun Yong Park by Decision

Tabatha Ricci -120 vs Polyana Viana +100

Anthony: Next is a fight at women’s strawweight with Polyana Viana taking on Tabatha Ricci. Viana is a serious grappling threat and this fight will likely be determined by her ability to secure a submission victory. Ricci has not been in the UFC for long but she displayed impressive volume and takedowns in her last fight to secure a win inside the octagon. She is the smaller woman, but packs the bigger punch and should be able to utilize her lower center of gravity to secure takedowns as needed. Viana is not somebody you want to mess with for long on the mat but I trust Ricci and her BJJ black belt to stay safe in this particular matchup. She should outwork Viana in this spot and continue to build hype as a rising prospect in this deep division. Tabatha Ricci by Decision
Nick: Ricci seems to have impressive offensive grappling ability, but we really haven’t seen her tested against a high level of competition. She was steamrolled in her UFC debut against Manon Fiorot, but it’s tough to get down on her for that performance as Fiorot is one of the more promising prospects in this division. Viana has outstanding BJJ, but she’s had trouble closing distance and getting her opponents to the mat. This will be her first fight since February of 2021, where she won via Armbar over Mallory Martin. Eight of her twelve professional wins have come via submission. This is a tough one to call as we really haven’t seen much from either girl at this level. I expect Ricci to have the advantage when this fight is standing, but I do see Viana grounding her before long. Since Ricci has had success grappling against lower-level competition there’s a decent chance she’ll be willing to engage in grappling exchanges here. If she does, that could be costly against the dangerous Viana. That being said, I also expect Viana could be overconfident in grappling exchanges. She’ll need to be careful not to grow overaggressive if she’s having early success. This is another very close matchup and a tough one to call, but I’ll once again take the value on the underdog. Polyana Viana by Round Two Submission

Chidi Njokuani -260 vs Dusko Todorovic +200

Anthony: Here we have a fun matchup at middleweight between Chidi Njokuani and Dusko Todorovic. Njokuani shined in his UFC debut this February knocking out Marc-Andre Barriault in just sixteen seconds. The long time Bellator fighter and elite kickboxer has only a few years to make a name for himself at this level, but he is off to an excellent start. He brings big time power and athleticism to this division. Todorovic is well rounded but likely looking to take a wrestle heavy approach here against such a high-level striker. He snapped a losing streak at the end of last year against Maki Pitolo, but that win does not really impress me much at all. Todorovic will need to crowd Njokuani and put on a high-volume performance in order to get his hand raised again here. Punahele Soriano kept his distance and knocked out Todorovic in the very first round of their fight. Njokuani has comparable power to Soriano and I think he can implement a similar gameplan in order to find the knockout in this spot. I am a bit worried about his cardio and defensive grappling if this devolves into a dog fight, but the more technically sound Njokuani should ultimately walk away with the victory. I’m expecting we will see his fourth straight knockout tonight. Chidi Njokuani by Round Two KO
Nick: Chidi Njokuani is coming off an impressive UFC debut where he KO’d a very tough out in Marc-Andre Barriault. He’s an extremely gifted striker who does his best work at range. He showed in his Contender Series win over Mario Sousa that he can be an effective grappler as well. Todorovic is an extremely powerful striker with crisp boxing and a solid ground game. He’s well rounded with a solid grappling base, but he seems most comfortable on his feet. He throws extremely powerful combos and uses the fence well to put his opponents in difficult positions. He also fights with his hands down at times and he leaves himself open to counter shots. Given the lapses in Todorovic’s defense, it feels like the UFC is setting him up for a loss here. I see Njokuani dominating the striking exchanges until he finds a timely knockout. Chidi Njokuani by Round One KO

Michel Pereira -140 vs Santiago Ponzinibbio +115

Anthony: The co-main event is a welterweight bout between Santiago Ponzinibbio and Michel Pereira. You will want to tune in for this one as Pereira often puts on a show. He loves throwing caution to the wind with spinning attacks, backflips and very unorthodox methods of closing the distance. He really is an agile and powerful striker. In his last bout he dominated the red-hot Andre Fialho while extending his win streak to four. Ponzinibbio was riding high before injuries forced a significant layoff from action. He has lost two of three fights since returning to the cage in early 2021. Ponzinibbio uses a boxing heavy approach in his fights and is certainly the cleaner striker of these two. His volume and speed have declined quite a bit but he is still a very dangerous opponent to stand and trade against. Pereira however will have the advantage in all other aspects of this fight. The Brazilian boasts a much wider arsenal of attacks, superior athleticism and a more present grappling threat. Michel Pereira by Decision
Nick: These guys are both extremely aggressive strikers and they’ve both shown an ability to carry power and still throw hard late in fights. Ponzinibbio was the class of this division before he was forced to miss more than two years with an extensive list of injuries. He’s coming off a hard-fought loss to Geoff Neal, but he gave a good account of himself in that spot. He hung with a very dangerous striker in Neal on the feet and even won the fight on one judge’s scorecard. Pereira is like a video game character in the way he flips around the ring. He’s one of the most entertaining fighters to watch, but his Fight IQ is always in question. He likes to throw ridiculous looking spinning kicks and he’s been known to backflip onto his opponents for pretty much no reason. This can put an unnecessary dent in his gas tank, but he does have strong striking ability and he has shown a solid chin against decent competition. He looked a lot more reserved in his last fight and it paid off with an impressive win over Andre Filho. This should be an excellent fight and it’s certainly a tough one to call. This is a low confidence play, but I’m siding with the underdog here. Ponzinibbio may be a bit past his prime, but I still see him as being on a higher level than Pereira. Santiago Ponzinibbio by Decision

Holly Holm -225 vs Ketlen Vieira +180

Anthony: Our main event is a fight at women’s bantamweight with Holly Holm taking on rising contender Ketlen Vieira. After fighting a bunch of absolute killers Holm has finally taken a step back in competition as of late. The former UFC champion has been on a hiatus but remains one of this division’s best. While she has enjoyed a layoff since 2020, the two fights prior were convincing wins by Holm over rising prospects in the division. I do not want to call her a gatekeeper because she is better than that, but there are a lot of questions surrounding the 40-year-old at this stage of her career. The experience of Holm should pay dividends in this bout. She should be able to fight Vieira at range utilizing kicks and hitting her with more power than her previous opponents were able to. Vieira is a very talented grappler. While her remaining skillset is developing quickly, I imagine Vieira looks to grapple a lot here against an opponent like Holm with superb kickboxing. This fight should certainly be lined closer than it is, but Holm is the rightful favorite and I am not going to step in the way of her winning streak here this evening. Finishes are not hard to find at women’s bantamweight but I certainly think this fight is going to go a full 25 minutes. Holly Holm by Decision
Nick: Holm has fought the best-of-the-best at women’s bantamweight. She’s the more experienced of the two fighters here and when it comes to striking, she really is the class of this division. She’s an outstanding boxer with stellar footwork and head movement. She throws powerful combinations and has true KO power in all of her limbs. Viera is likely going to be the more dangerous fighter if this fight hits the mat. She’s a blackbelt in both BJJ and Judo. She has strong takedown and submission ability but she really hasn’t seen the same level of competition that Holm has. Holm was visibly stronger and bigger at face-offs so I’m expecting her to muscle Viera into tough positions if she does start to fall behind on the scorecards. This has been Holm’s path to victory in many of her recent fights, as she’s been leaning on her cage-grappling more than she was early in her career. While this may be bad for us as fans, it opens more paths to victory for her against an opponent like this. Vierira is likely going to come out strong here, but as this fight wears on I expect Holm’s experience to shine through. She may be able to score a takedown early, but Holm is defensively sound and she’s shown she can work back to her feet against high-level competition. Given the long layoff I don’t want to overinvest in Holm here, but she’s the rightful favorite. Holly Holm by Decision

-Nick Marro

Twitter: @NickMarroDFS

-Anthony Marro

Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_