While risky, sometimes it’s beneficial to bet on yourself, and New York Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge is proving exactly that.
Judge, who’s widely known as one of the top sluggers in Major League Baseball, is set to become a free agent after the 2022 season. As of now, he remains without a contract extension, however, that’s a circumstance of his own choosing.
Before Opening Day, the Yankees offered their three-time All-Star a lucrative seven-year, $213.5 million deal. The contract would’ve paid him on average $30.5 million per season. But he rejected the team’s offer.
Afterwards, general manager Brian Cashman unexpectedly held a press conference, revealing the terms of the club’s offer to Judge. It was a way for the Yankees to redirect some of the blame away from themselves.
With both sides unable to find common ground, Judge decided not to negotiate a new contract during the season. So barring any last-minute changes, which seem unlikely at this point, the 30-year-old will hit the open market this fall.
Making matters worse, the Yankees and Judge are headed to a third-party arbitrator after failing to avoid this outcome in the spring. The team filed at $17 million whereas the 6’7” right fielder filed at $21 million.
Normally, these types of disputes would be settled long before the start of the regular season. But due to the owner-imposed lockout, that wasn’t possible. This has pushed all arbitration hearings to in-season, which is less than ideal.
For Judge, he opted to halt contract negotiations as a way to help keep his focus on one area: his individual performance. And so far, that decision has proven extremely successful in 2022. Entering Saturday’s action, the two-time Silver Slugger has posted 14 home runs, 30 RBIs, a 204 wRC+ score and a .307/.381/.664 slash line through 156 plate appearances. He also features a 2.6 fWAR rating.
Understandably, this incredible start to the season has positioned Judge as one of the top performers in the majors thus far. In total, he leads in home runs, ranks second in ISO (.358), third in slugging percentage and wRC+, fourth in fWAR and is tied for the sixth-most RBIs, according to FanGraphs.com.
One of the key reasons Judge has been remarkably effective is that he’s been crushing balls like never before. He was already someone who specialized in creating hard contact. Now, the right-hander has improved in that department even further.
This season, the former first-round selection from 2013 has registered career-highs involving his hard-hit rate (66.0 per cent), barrel rate (27.8 per cent) and average exit velocity (97.0 m.p.h.). All three metrics rank in the 100th percentile of the majors.
As someone that’s in the final year of arbitration and can become a free agent this off-season, the 2022 campaign couldn’t have started any better for Judge.
Right now, his decision to decline New York’s contract offer looks to be a very wise choice – one that should benefit him when the season ends. At this rate, his asking price is only likely to increase moving forward, especially if he wins the American League MVP Award.
The Linden, California, native currently possesses the second-best odds to win this year’s prestigious trophy at +450, according to FanDuel.com. Two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani remains the front-runner at +240.
For Judge to capture the award, staying healthy through the rest of the way will be vital. Unfortunately, aside from logging 148 games last season, remaining on the field is something that he’s been unable to accomplish in previous campaigns.
Between dealing with injuries to his lung, ribs, calf, oblique and wrist, the Yankees’ star spent significant time on the injured list from 2018-2020. This has caused some experts to doubt his longevity. And who could blame them?
Prior to the 2021 season, Judge hadn’t completed an entire season without suffering a significant injury since becoming a full-time major leaguer in ‘17. But if he can string together two straight healthy seasons, perhaps that narrative will begin to change.
Still, New York’s front office was reportedly unwilling to extend the veteran slugger beyond seven years, which would’ve signed him through his age-37 season. A decision Cashman and his staff may regret in the coming months.
In recent years, superstar players have landed enormous deals before reaching the age-30 threshold. However, Judge, who’ll be turning 31-years-old next season, could prove to be an outlier in this sense.
For outfielders, Mike Trout (12 years, $426.5 million) and Mookie Betts (12 years, $365 million) have recently set the standard. In saying that, they each signed their megadeals before turning 30, which has become a recent trend across baseball.
If Judge hopes to receive a $35 million average annual value, he could potentially approach the $300-million threshold. Over eight seasons at that AAV, his total contract would be worth $280 million.
But as ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel writes, someone may need to offer a deal worth $300 million to acquire Judge’s services. Will that come from the Yankees? Probably not. But that other New York franchise, the Mets, could be inclined to do so.
It’s also possible the San Francisco Giants could serve as a potential suitor as they’d benefit from upgrading their outfield. This would serve as a homecoming as he grew up less than two hours outside of San Francisco.
There will undoubtedly be significant interest outside of these two markets, as well. With one of the top sluggers in the sport available, every playoff contender should be making a run to land the towering righty.
Either way, as long as Judge stays healthy, he’ll be poised to receive a massive payday shortly after the 2022 season concludes.
-Thomas Hall
Twitter: @ThomasHall85
Photo: Keith Allison. This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic license.