UFC 304: Edwards vs Muhammad II – 7.27.2024 – Fight Predictions and Analysis
Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC 304: Edwards vs Muhammad II. We’re in for an eventful night here in London with two championship fights headlining a loaded card. Our analysis includes a pick for every bout from Dynes Sports contributors Anthony Marro and Nicholas Marro.
As coverage continues, we will keep our records up to date below. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick though as records will not reflect confidence. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few.
Current Record
- Anthony: 179-113-0 (Last Year 307-199-6, 61%)
- Nick: 178-114-0 (Last Year 324-182-6, 64%)
*Fight odds were last updated from Bet99 on 7-26-2024 at 11pm EST
Early Prelims- Start 6:00pm EST
Shauna Bannon -190 vs Alice Ardelean +155
- Anthony: The card today begins with women’s strawweight Shauna Bannon and Alice Ardelean. This is a very low-level matchup with neither of these athletes fighting at a very high caliber. Ardelean has shown some flashes in her young career although the competition she has been facing is some of the worst she could choose from. Bannon is not special with very little substance behind her punches but I would figure her to have the slight edge over Ardelean based on experience alone. She should also draw favor from the judges who may side with local fighters as they turn in their scorecards. Bannon was originally booked for another winnable fight against Ravena Oliveira. Ardelean will struggle to keep pace with Bannon as she gives up control of the cage. Shauna Bannon by Decision
- Nick: Shauna Bannon is 5-1 professionally, with each of her last three wins coming by decision. She is most recently coming off a loss, which came via decision in her UFC debut against Bruna Brasil. Bannon is athletic, but fairly raw in her abilities. She can be predictable both on the feet and in grappling exchanges, and most of her wins have come against a questionable level of competition. Alice Ardelean will be making her UFC debut here, taking this fight on short notice as a replacement for Ravena Oliveira. Like Bannon, she really hasn’t found success against quality competition. She looks well-rounded and aggressive when you watch her regional tape, but there is no denying this match-up with Bannon represents a major step up in terms of level of competition. Given the low-level nature of this match-up, it’s tough to have conviction on either side. Regardless, I prefer Bannon given her experience advantage. Shauna Bannon by Decision
Mick Parkin -380 vs Lukasz Brzeski +300
- Anthony: Next is a fight at heavyweight between Lukasz Brzeski and Mick Parkin. While Mick Parkin is not the most dynamic or imposing of heavyweights, he has been a consistent performer inside the octagon. Parkin brings a steady pace to his fights and boasts above average offensive grappling. I think he is rightfully favored in this matchup having the edge grappling over Brzeski. He is more skilled technically and Parkin is only getting a favorable draw thanks to his undefeated record. He is the best thing England has as far as British heavyweight prospects are concerned. Brzeski has just one win since joining the UFC, getting the nod over Valter Walker in his last fight. That decision was a snoozer that saw little improvements from Brzeski apart from his takedown defense. I’m not really a fan of Brzeski’s move to heavyweight and fear he will feel undersized in this matchup. He could win minutes here, stuffing takedowns and engaging Parkin on the feet although I doubt that game plan will work for a full three rounds of action. Brezski still fails to score consistent offense or really hurt opponents with his strikes. Mick Parkin by Decision
- Nick: This is a low-level heavyweight matchup, but both of these guys are more athletic than they look. Parkin is a powerful striker with decent BJJ, but it’s tough to gauge his level as he really hasn’t been tested extensively against top level competition. He’s coming off three straight wins under the UFC banner, but against relatively low level opponents. It will be interesting to see how he develops as he continues to take on tougher competition. Brzeski is 9-3-1 professionally, coming off a solid upset win via decision over an undefeated prospect in Valter Walker. He’s athletic, but his technical ability in both his striking and grappling is far from refined. He has decent power on the feet, but he telegraphs most of his strikes. This creates openings for his opponents to either take him down or counter him. This is a low level match-up and thus a low confidence play. I’ll side with Parkin as the favorite as the more well-rounded of the two. Brzeski is an interesting test for him here, but it’s one I do expect he’ll pass. Mick Parkin by Decision
Sam Patterson -450 vs Kiefer Crosbie +340
- Anthony: This should be an exciting welterweight matchup between Kiefer Crosbie and Sam Patterson. It is hard to advise betting Patterson as such a significant favorite although it seems likely he overwhelms Crosbie early on in this scrap. Patterson is quick to engage opponents whether that be on the mat or kickboxing from range. Patterson uses all of his 6 ‘3 frame whether that be catching opponents with the ends of his punches or stepping in to land punishing knees to the body. He is a much better striker than Crosbie although the Irishman is not afraid to stand his ground and trade. Crosbie could really hurt an opponent like Patterson who does not hold his chin high despite poor defense. Patterson has also been finished twice before in round one. This fight should be under seven minutes long with one of these two finding a finish. Patterson has a slight edge striking while he can clearly out grapple Crosbie if and when this hits the mat. I like his chances of getting to the back of Crosbie in the clinch and finding a submission. Sam Patterson by Round One Submission
- Nick: Sam Patterson is coming off a solid submission win over Yohan Lainesse. He is 11-2-1 professionally, with four wins coming via KO and six via submission. Patterson has a long frame for the division, but his striking defense is generally terrible and his chin is there to be hit in exchanges. He’s decent everywhere offensively, he has an effective choke series, and he wisely looks to grapple aggressively in most of his match-ups. Kiefer Crosby has faced decent competition as a former Bellator mainstay, carrying power on the feet with solid technical boxing ability both offensively and defensively. He trains out of SGB Ireland and he is 10-4 professionally. He lost via submission in his UFC debut to a tough out in Kevin Jousset. Patterson should benefit from the fact that he’ll be fighting in front of his home crowd in this one. His questionable durability makes him a difficult fighter to back at this price, but I expect he can take Crosbie down early and utilize his superior grappling ability on the way to a finish. Sam Patterson by Round One Submission
Muhammad Mokaev -175 vs Manel Kape +145
- Anthony: This is a fight at flyweight between Manel Kape and Muhammad Mokaev. I am excited to see this matchup as both men can position themselves for a title opportunity very soon. The undefeated Mokaev is 12-0 and positioned for a long and healthy UFC stint. He is tall for flyweight and a handful to try and roll with on the mat. Mokaev’s striking offense has come a long way but he is not as dangerous as Kape when it comes to knockout power. He is very quick to out scramble opponents and rarely do we see Mokaev put into positions where he panics. Kape has conversely struggled when he is taken down. Mokaev’s advantage grappling makes him a clear pick for me in this fight. Kape has a slight edge here kickboxing but Mokaev should be able to hold his own in those exchanges in between. He will win minutes against Kape thanks to his superior jiu jitsu. We are getting good value on Mokaev here, even after moving from -110 to -175. Muhammad Mokaev by Round Three Submission
- Nick: Muhammad Mokaev is a high-level wrestler who can push an aggressive pace for a full three rounds. He is relentless in his pursuit of takedowns, and so far in the UFC he is averaging just under six successful takedowns per fight. He continues to show improvement on the feet, but his greatest strength is certainly his grappling ability as six of his eleven professional wins have come via submission. Mokaev is a highly regarded flyweight prospect, born in Dagestan but living and training out of Great Britain. He began fighting as an amateur at just 15-years old, amassing an impressive 20-0 amateur record. He’s 6-0 under the UFC banner, and he’ll be looking for his seventh UFC win here against a dangerous vet in Manel Kape. Manel Kape has excellent power for a flyweight. He is a highly technical striker with advanced footwork, which he uses well to set up his power shots. Kape can be overaggressive at times and his grappling seems average for the division, but his KO power alone makes him a threat against anyone. Kape is coming off four consecutive wins, and many feel he’s a potential title contender at 125 lbs. If Mokaev struggles to get takedowns here Kape will likely dominate him on the feet, but I do expect he can secure a narrow decision in a wrestling heavy affair. Mokaev averages 5.75 takedowns per fifteen minutes, and Kape has a 77 percent takedown defense in spite of the fact he hasn’t faced anyone on Mokaev’s level in terms of wrestling in the UFC. Muhammad Mokaev by Round Three Submission
Preston Parsons -145 vs Oban Elliott +120
- Anthony: This is a fight at welterweight between Oban Elliott and Preston Parsons. I consider this a bit of a mirror match with both men talented when it comes to cage grappling. Elliott is a durable and high pace fighter who does well wrestling and wearing out opponents. He has heavy hands but not the consistent striking offense of Parsons. Neither of these men have great kickboxing but Parsons does well punching while moving forward, and he tends to build as fights go late. His offensive jiu jitsu is better than most and I think he has the talent to outgrapple Elliott. Parsons is 2-2 in the UFC with impressive wins against Evan Elder and Matthew Semelsberger. He is averaging more than one takedown landed per round and I’d think Elliott will oblige him when the fight goes there. Preston Parsons by Decision
- Nick: Preston Parsons is a dangerous submission grappler with decent takedown entries, which he primarily finds up against the cage. He is going to look to take this fight to the mat, but he’s competent enough on the feet to strike with Elliott if he needs to. Parsons is 2-2 in the UFC, coming off a dominant decision win over Matthew Semelsberger. Oban Elliott is 10-2 professionally, having primarily fought for Cage Warriors while fighting out of Wales. Elliott is decent everywhere, but he doesn’t really have any standout skill. He has three wins via submission and two via KO, but he’s somewhat awkward in his approach. He can be hittable in exchanges, and his Fight IQ and general instincts seem inconsistent at best. He secured a win via decision over Val Woodburn in his UFC debut, but that wasn’t a great performance as both fighters seemed extremely gassed in that match-up. This is another tough one to call, but I slightly prefer Parsons here. I expect he can lean on his superior grappling to grind out a win on the mat. Preston Parsons by Round Two Submission.
Preliminary Card- Starts 8:00pm EST
Modestas Bukauskas -160 vs Marcin Prachnio +130
- Anthony: This is a bout between Modestas Bukauskas and Marcin Prachnio at light heavyweight. It should be a fun battle of strikers here to open the preliminary card. Prachnio is coming off an impressive win in his last fight against Devin Clark. I like Prachnio’s recent activity in the cage and the higher pace at which he is now fighting. He hits with more power than Bukauskas and has good accuracy when it comes to placing his counters. Bukauskas is coming off a loss in his last fight but a return to the promotion that has yielded positive results. Bukauskas has been better at fighting his fight, yet he unfortunately still succumbs to the same defensive woes that he always has. Prachnio could hurt Bukauskas in the early going in this fight but otherwise I’d expect to see a competitive three rounds of action. Bukauskas has better weapons from range than Prachnio and great kicks that will score in the judge’s favor. I worry about Bukauskas engaging for long in the pocket but I am confident saying his technical striking is better than that of Prachnio. He also lands with the higher work rate. Modestas Bukauskas by Decision
- Nick: Modestas Bukauskas is a powerful striker with a massive frame for a light heavyweight. He is 6’3 with a 78-inch reach. He fights even longer than that, as he keeps a wide stance both striking and defending against takedowns. His greatest strength is his powerful striking, but he seems to leave his hands down which leaves him vulnerable against other powerful punchers. Prachnio is a decent striker at range, but he leaves himself open to counter shots. He is often there to be hit in lengthy exchanges, but at his best he does a good job fighting on the outside of the cage while circling away from the power of his opponents. These are two low volume strikers who fight overly tentative at times. This is a low confidence play, but I slightly prefer Bukauskas as I expect he’ll be the more aggressive fighter of the two. Additionally, he should have a notable grappling advantage if he should choose to lean on that part of his game. Modestas Bukauskas by Decision.
Caolan Loughran -220 vs Jake Hadley +180
- Anthony: This is a matchup at bantamweight between Caolan Loughran and Jake Hadley. It is a short notice appearance for Hadley who steps in here for the injured Ramon Taveras. Hadley was a pound heavy at yesterday’s weigh-ins despite moving up in class for this contest. Hadley is more skilled than Loughran in my opinion but I think the size difference could play a factor. Loughran has a more stout build than Hadley and better grappling in top control. However, Hadley has the jiu jitsu skills to sweep Loughran here and even the playing field as these two engage on the mat. Loughran hits with more power than Hadley but we should see the better offensive strikes landed by the Englishman. I think the move up in weight could also be a benefit to Hadley who previously struggled to maintain his pace when fighting at 125 pounds. I like the value of him here as the betting underdog in what should be a very close fight. Jake Hadley by Decision
- Nick: Caolan Loughran is 9-1 professionally, with all but two of those wins coming via finish in the first or second round. He’s coming off a solid decision win over Angel Pacheco, his first under the UFC banner. At 28-years old he continues to improve. He’s a pressure brawler who seems most content fighting on the feet. He has an impressive highlight reel, but his wins have come against a questionable level of competition. He’s an underrated wrestler that generally uses his grappling to neutralize dangerous strikers. In this particular match-up, that exact gameplan will likely present his clearest potential path to victory. Loughran is going to have a major strength advantage here, especially with Hadley moving up a weight class. Jake Hadley is 2-4 in the UFC, but many feel he still has a high ceiling as a prospect. Hadley had a lot of success on the regional scene, most prominently in Cage Warriors where he captured the flyweight title. He’s a talented grappler with dangerous BJJ but in spite of a recent KO win over Malcolm Gordon, his striking seems to be a work in progress. Hadley’s takedown defense seems flawed as well, but he has solid enough BJJ to work himself into favorable positions against most opponents. Hadley is going to be the better technical striker in this match-up, but I’m not confident in his ability to keep this fight standing. Loughran is the more natural bantamweight, and his wrestling advantage should allow him to pull away on the scorecards. Hadley is a live underdog, but I expect he’ll fade late. Caolan Loughran by Decision.
Molly McCann -340 vs Bruna Brasil +270
- Anthony: This is a fun fight at women’s strawweight as Bruna Brasil will face Molly McCann. The crowd in London should provide a huge pop for Meatball Molly as she again draws into an overmatched opponent. Brasil is a live underdog in this fight but her skill set lacks in comparison to McCann. We see McCann land 5.79 significant strikes per minute and really pour on the pressure when she has her opponents hurt. Her boxing is above average and at 115 pounds I trust that McCann is in the best shape that we can get her. Brasil can stay competitive with McCann here standing on their feet but McCann will find a much easier fight here by looking to score offensive takedowns. I trust the savvy veteran to earn this win by any means necessary fighting here at home. Brasil is a game opponent that McCann will stand and trade blows with. I’m not confident betting on her as such a large favorite. Molly McCann by Decision
- Nick: Molly McCann does a good job working behind her jab. She is an extremely aggressive brawler with crisp boxing ability, decent defensive grappling ability and excellent cardio. She is capable of leaning on her wrestling against inferior grapplers but there’s certainly no denying that she prefers to stand and swing. Her durability and grit are amongst her better qualities, and she’s coming off an impressive submission over Diana Belbiţă back in February. Bruna Brasil is 9-4-1 professionally, with three of those wins coming via KO and two via submission. She’s coming off a decision loss to Loma Lookboonmee, and she’s now 1-2 in the UFC. Brasil is strong with a large frame for the division. She’s shown a well-rounded skill set, and seems to make considerable improvements every time we see her in the cage. McCann is going to be the better technical striker here and she’s going to have a considerable grappling advantage if this fight hits the mat. While I don’t love the price, I do expect her to find another finish in front of her home crowd. Molly McCann by Round Two Submission.
Nathaniel Wood -450 vs Daniel Pineda +340
- Anthony: The featured prelim is a fight at featherweight between Nathaniel Wood and Daniel Pineda. The prospect Wood is a big draw In England and getting a winnable matchup here at home. He is coming off a loss in his last bout when facing Muhammad Naimov. Wood was outstruck in that matchup but unlikely to suffer the same fate here today. Pineda does his best work landing submission attempts early on his opponents. Wood should be fine engaging with Pineda on the mat even if things start out a bit too. Wood is a very high volume striker with much better hands than Pineda. He is excellent at maintaining top control and winning the race to positions on the mat. I think he warrants the steep price tag here having much better cardio and volume than Pineda. Nathaniel Wood by Round Three KO
- Nick: Nathaniel Wood has crisp striking and he throws intelligent combinations on the feet. He forces a serious pace and puts constant pressure on his opponents. At his best, he can put out serious volume while mixing in takedowns to keep his opponents guessing. His conditioning has been solid lately, but we have seen him fade late in fights earlier on in his career. Daniel Pineda is almost always dangerous early, but as his fights wear on he tends to fall victim to his own lack of cardio. He’s coming off a hard fought decision loss to Alex Caceres, a fight in which he struggled to close distance on the feet. All twenty-eight of Pineda’s professional wins have come inside the distance. Wood is the better technical fighter in this match-up, but the margin isn’t nearly as wide as the price indicates. I expect Wood can weather an early storm from Pineda to win a decision, but at this price it isn’t anything I’d consider betting on. Nathaniel Wood by Decision.
Main Card- Starts 10:00pm EST
Arnold Allen -220 vs Giga Chikadze +180
- Anthony: The main card begins here with a featherweight fight featuring Arnold Allen and Giga Chikadze. Allen is looking to bounce back here after two consecutive losses. I certainly do not hold Allen in any lower regard after seeing him defeated by both Max Holloway and Movsar Evloev. Allen is in a more favorable stylistic matchup here facing a kickboxer. Chikadze has the advantage over Allen while striking but not by a vast margin. Chikadze’s best work is done when he has space to work and Allen will rarely ever allow that. He tends to move forward and pressure opponents while unloading a high barrage of strikes. Allen will also avoid some of Chikadze’s best attacks by fighting out of the southpaw stance. Ideally we will see Allen score his own takedowns here and remind Chikadze that this is a mixed martial arts bout. Allen should prove to be a level above Chikadze by the start of round three. Arnold Allen by Decision
- Nick: Arnold Allen is a talented striker who does an excellent job keeping pressure on his opponents. Most of his fights are won on the feet, but he’s shown a well-rounded overall game. He is 19-2 professionally, coming off a hard fought but convincing decision loss to one of the best featherweights in the world in Movsar Evloev. Giga Chikadze is a high-level kickboxer who is excellent when striking at range. He throws extremely powerful kicks, and his countering ability is extremely advanced. He’s coming off a solid decision win over Alex Caceres, but he’s generally inactive and he hasn’t fought since that win back in August of 2023. Chikadze is the better technical striker at range, but Allen does a good job at closing distance and forcing his opponents to brawl. I expect he can lean on his grappling as he works his way back into the win column. Arnold Allen by Decision.
Christian Leroy Duncan -130 vs Gregory Rodrigues +110
- Anthony: This is a middleweight contest between Gregory Rodrigues and Christian Leroy Duncan. This is a huge fight for Duncan, making his first UFC appearance in the United Kingdom. He is a very promising athlete with just one loss in his professional career. Duncan was originally given a much easier booking here, set to face Robert Bryczek. Now he draws into a very imposing opponent in Rodrigues. Duncan is very light on his feet and dynamic when it comes to his boxing. Watch for Duncan’s slip counters and quick jab to establish an early lead here against Rodrigues. Robocop looks to be in great shape appearing on short notice but he will need to be aggressive to win here today. Rodrigues has the grappling edge over Duncan and could certainly look to blast takedowns here in order to win. However, even while standing I think Rodrigues has a solid chance of cracking Duncan’s chin. His power is very tough to match at middleweight and Duncan does not tend to move his head off of the centerline. This is a very close fight to call but I will take my chances on the underdog. Gregory Rodrigues by Round Two KO
- Nick: Christian Leroy Duncan is 10-1 professionally, with eight of his wins coming via KO. He’s a dynamic striker who has shown serious power in both his punches and his kicks. He’s extremely athletic with creative flying and spinning attacks in his arsenal. He does an excellent job leading his opponents into traps, and he’s explosive out of breaks. As excellent as he is on the feet, his defensive grappling is still a major hole in his game. His only loss came in a fight in which he was out grappled by Armen Petrosyan, a fighter mostly known for his kickboxing. Gregory Rodrigues has a BJJ black belt, but he’s found most of his success just standing and striking at range. He’s massive for the division, but he carries so much muscle that it seems he fades if his fights get into the later rounds. Rodrigues is extremely dangerous offensively, but he telegraphs many of his strikes which leads him open to be countered in chaotic exchanges. Regardless, he’s a potent finisher with a well-rounded overall game. This is one of the more competitive fights on the card and one I could certainly see going either way. I’ll side with Leroy Duncan here as I expect his durability will allow him to eventually find a finish. I’d back Rodrigues if I had any confidence that he’d grapple aggressively, but he seems more than willing to strike regardless of match-up. Christian Leroy Duncan by Round Two KO.
King Green -115 vs Paddy Pimblett -105
- Anthony: The featured bout is a lightweight fight between Paddy Pimblett and King Green. This is a very compelling matchup to once again test Pimblett against a division stalwart. Green has been a great litmus test for upcoming prospects, oftentimes being the one to turn opponents back. He is a very elusive striker with better boxing than most. Green’s style of striking will be a tough puzzle for Pimblett to solve, especially if Green remains active and on his bike early. I think this will be a competitive striking battle although Pimblett is the more durable man standing. Pimblett also has a clear edge over Green when it comes to his jiu jitsu. Traditionally Green has had above average takedown defense but Pimblett’s grappling is on another level when he can secure the back. I expect him to wrap up Green in something before this fight is done. I certainly feel there’s value in Pimblett here as the betting underdog while fighting a fight on his home soil. Paddy Pimblett by Round Two Submission
- Nick: King ‘aka Bobby’ Green is a well-rounded fighter, but his shoulder-roll boxing style is what stands out when you watch him on film. He usually wins fights by out-striking his opponents at boxing range. He throws a lot of volume, with decent power on his shots, and he generally does a good job stringing together effective combinations. While Green is certainly a quality boxer offensively, he tends to keep his hands down more often than he should. He likes to talk to and taunt his opponents as he fights, which occasionally leaves him on the wrong end of exchanges. Paddy Pimblett is primarily a grappler, and his greatest advantage is certainly his highly aggressive and dangerous style. He hunts for submissions from almost any position. We’ve even seen him score a win via Flying Triangle earlier in his career. His BJJ is certainly his greatest strength, but we’ve seen consistent improvement in his striking from fight to fight. The biggest knock on Pimblett are the holes in his striking defense. He keeps his chin high in exchanges and we’ve seen him clipped, more than once, against a relatively low level of opponent. Pimblett is undefeated in the UFC, but this match-up with Green represents a massive step up in terms of level of competition. Outside of getting caught with a hook or falling into an early submission, I see Green outclassing Pimblett significantly over the course of three rounds. King Green by Decision.
Tom Aspinall -400 vs Curtis Blaydes +320
- Anthony: The co-main event decides the interim heavyweight championship with Tom Aspinall facing Curtis Blaydes once again. These men competed in London two years ago, but that fight saw Aspinall’s knee ripped apart within the first dozen seconds. Blaydes was confident, engaging Aspinall standing but it was a checked kick that earned him the victory. This will be just the third fight where Blaydes will be an underdog, a circumstance where he has found success having won both fights previously where he had that designation against Almeida and Aspinall respectively. I bet on Blaydes in his first meeting with Aspinall and I’m tempted to once again tonight getting huge plus money. Aspinall is without a doubt the most skilled heavyweight striker in the world but I still can’t say I’m confident in taking him in this stylistic matchup. It seems logical that Aspinall would stay a step ahead of Blaydes and avenge his only UFC loss here but Blaydes wrestling makes that a task easier said than done. Blaydes averages 1.90 takedowns landed per round and I do not think Aspinall wants to feel himself underneath Blaydes. While Aspinall has proven to be more skilled everywhere, I think he will struggle to deal with Blaydes’ strength and power. Apart from Jon Jones I do not think any other heavyweight can put Aspinall in uncomfortable positions like Curtis Blaydes can. I consider this a great value bet regardless of the fight’s outcome. And New. Curtis Blaydes by Round Four KO
- Nick: Tom Aspinall is the current Interim Heavyweight Champion, having strung together nine consecutive wins via finish before tearing his ACL against Curtis Blaydes (his opponent in this match-up). in July of 2022. He has since returned to action and secured wins via KO of Marcin Tybura and Sergei Pavlovich (the latter for the Interim Title). He’s a surprisingly well-rounded heavyweight considering he only has sixteen total fights on his professional record. A former training partner of Tyson Fury, Aspinall has excellent footwork and head movement. He is a highly technical boxer with advanced ability both offensively and defensively. He has impressive speed for the division, and his ground game and BJJ are also well-above average for a heavyweight. He’s in the best shape of his short career, and he is widely regarded as the best heavyweight in the world in MMA. Curtis Blaydes is primarily a wrestler and one of the best heavyweights in the world in terms of grappling ability. He has excellent takedown entries and averages more takedowns per minute than any other heavyweight in UFC history. He continues to show considerable improvements on the feet, which will likely be important for him here against a talented striker in Aspinall. If Blaydes can extend this fight he could pull away given his superior cardio and wrestling ability. However, it seems more likely Aspinall’s speed will be too much for him in striking exchanges. And Still. Tom Aspinall by Round One KO.
Leon Edwards -260 vs Belal Muhammad +210
- Anthony: The main event will see Leon Edwards defend his welterweight title against challenger Belal Muhammad. This is a rematch of the pair’s 2021 fight that ended in a No Contest due to an eye poke. The early part of that fight saw Edwards hurt Muhammad and land 17 strikes to just 8. He was much faster than Belal and I expect him to find similar striking success in this fight today. Muhammad will need to fight his normal gameplan to win the title. He has largely found success on this streak of ten fights unbeaten by pressuring opponents and wrestling whenever he can. Edwards has excellent takedown defense and elite wrist control when fights get to the fence. He will not struggle to keep his distance from Muhammad and break from any scrambles that take place. I trust Edwards to win fights against grapplers like this after seeing him already dispose of Kamaru Usman and Colby Covington. If Muhammad is forced to strike I do not see him having any sustained success. Muhammad has never landed a knockdown and lacks any meaningful power in his hands. This should be a dominant performance at home for the champion. And Still. Leon Edwards by Decision
- Nick: Leon Edwards, the UFC Welterweight Champion, has strung together twelve consecutive wins. He’s a gifted striker that does an excellent job of moving in and out of his opponents’ range. His wrestling has undoubtedly improved over the past few years, but there is no doubt that his best chance to secure the win here is to keep this fight standing. Edwards will be taking on an opponent in Belal Muhammad who had been dominating until the fight was called via eye poke back in March of 2023. Each fighter is undefeated since that meeting. Belal Muhammad has a solid wrestling base and excellent weight distribution when he finds himself on top of his opponents. He’s not really a submission threat, but he’s very tough to stand up against once an opponent is grounded. His stand-up continues to improve, but his greatest strength as a fighter is his pressure and cardio. He never really seems to fade and he does a good job breaking his opponents down with continuous offense. Belal may secure a few takedowns here, but I expect Edwards can work his way back to his feet the same way he did against both Covington and Kamaru Usman in the past. Edwards’ striking ability will likely be too much for Muhammad to weather for long. And Still. Leon Edwards by Round Three KO.
-Nick Marro
Twitter: @NickMarroDFS
-Anthony Marro
Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_
Photo: UFC.com