UFC Vegas 92: Barboza vs Murphy – 5.18.2024 – Fight Predictions and Analysis
Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC Vegas 92: Barboza vs Murphy. We’re back in Vegas tonight for this card taking place at The UFC Apex. Our analysis includes a pick for every bout from Dynes Sports contributors Anthony Marro and Nicholas Marro.
As coverage continues, we will keep our records up to date below. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick though as records will not reflect confidence. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few.
Current Record
- Anthony: 125-73-0 (Last Year 307-199-6, 61%)
- Nick: 125-73-0 (Last Year 324-182-6, 64%)
*Fight odds were last updated from Bet99 on 5-17-2024 at 10pm EST
Preliminary Card- Starts 4:00pm EST
Emily Ducote -375 vs Vanessa Demopoulos +290
- Anthony: The card today opens with a bout at women’s strawweight as Vanessa Demopoulos will face Emily Ducote. I made money betting Demopoulos in her last fight and feel tempted to go to the well with her again. Demopoulos was gifted that decision against Kanako Murata despite winning very few moments in that bout. I am a fan of the effort from Demopoulos every time out and the aggression he shows even in poor positions. Her best work comes in her grappling and jiu jitsu although that will probably not be the tale here today. Ducote has a solid base in wrestling and the skills to stuff Vanessa on those single leg attempts. She will also land the better strikes throughout this bout, cracking with much more power than Demopoulos. I do not think very highly of Ducote with her eight pro losses but nonetheless this feels like a matchup she should win. Demopoulous is more likely to find a submission than get gifted another decision here today. Emily Ducote by Decision
- Nick: This is a lower level match-up between two fighters I don’t expect to climb the rankings at strawweight. Ducote is an effective striker with surprising power for her frame. She is coming off her first UFC win over Ashley Yoder, but she is just 2-2 in the promotion and 13-8 overall. Ducote lands more than six significant strikes per minute, but she absorbs nearly eight. Her striking defense has been an issue when fighting at the top level, but it’s expected she’s going to continue to show improvement in her technical abilities as she’s still only 30-years old. Vanessa Demopoulos was recently awarded her BJJ black belt. She has a powerful wrestling base, showing enough ability to score takedowns against lower level opponents. She can be an effective striker, but her defense is questionable at best. She eats a lot of shots against higher-volume strikers, and offensively she often leaves herself open to counter shots. She should have a slight grappling advantage if this fight hits the mat, but I’m not confident in her ability to take it there as Ducote has a 92 percent takedown defense in the UFC. The line feels wide, but I expect Ducote can mostly keep this fight standing where she should be able to out-land Demopoulos by a wide margin. Emily Ducote by Decision
Kleydson Rodrigues -150 vs Alatengheili +125
- Anthony: Next is a matchup at bantamweight between Alatengheili and Kleydson Rodrigues. This should be a good stylistic draw with both men likely content to stand and exchange shots with one another. Rodrigues will be more aggressive now up at bantamweight, throwing with a higher rate of volume. I think Rodrigues does pose a bigger threat standing up than Alatengheili but now up at 135 pounds his power won’t translate the same. Alatengheili has proven to be extremely durable and I doubt many of Rodrigues’ attacks really get through or stun him. He is going to march forward here against Rodrigues and leave very little room for the Brazilian to land his kicks. While I am expecting a competitive back and forth here the value seems to be on the underdog. Alatengheili is the more proven commodity in my eyes and I like his chances of getting a win if this goes to the scorecards. Alatengheili by Decision
- Nick: Kleydson Rodrigues works well behind his jab, he has powerful leg kicks, but he is most known for his flashy high kicks and spinning attacks. He is extremely aggressive on the feet and he’s more than willing to throw flying knees and wheel kicks in open space. He has shown power at the professional level, but since moving up to bantamweight it seems it’s not quite as devastating as it was at flyweight. He’s coming off a hard fought decision loss to Farid Basharat back in September of 2023, but at 28 years-old we should continue to see him improve from fight to fight. Alatengheili is 4-2-1 in the UFC, fighting out of an excellent camp in Fight Ready under Santino Defranco and Eddie Cha. He’s well-rounded with surprising power for his frame, and he continues to show improvement in his grappling abilities everytime we see him fight. Alatengheili should be able to keep this fight close, but I see Rodrigues taking over as it extends into the second and third rounds. It seems he’s finally comfortable at 135 lbs, and his cardio and durability should improve as a result. A low confidence play, but I see Rodrigues securing a win here as he lands the bigger shots. Kleydson Rodrigues by Decision
Piera Rodriguez -220 vs Ariane Carnelossi +180
- Anthony: Here is a women’s strawweight fight between Piera Rodriguez and Ariane Carnelossi. Rodriguez took her first professional loss in a fight with Gillian Robertson more than a year ago. I think the hiatus since then likely resulted in Rodriguez improving her skills and building off of that learning experience. She is a skilled athlete with more tools than Carnelossi and a more sustainable style. Carnelossi is a hyper and aggressive striker while Rodriguez is content to fight off her back foot more often. She throws more diverse attacks compared to Carnelossi and tends to have more to give in the latter part of her bouts. This is not a fight I want to involve myself in financially but Rodriguez is without doubt the rightful favorite. I think her size and speed could give issues to Carnelossi while these two are standing. Piera Rodriguez by Decision
- Nick: Piera Rodriguez is a dangerous and aggressive striker with five of her nine professional wins coming via KO. Rodriguez is a tough and aggressive fighter who does her best work when she can push forward and pressure her opponents. She throws well timed strikes, she’s defensively sound, and against inferior opponents she can win off her excellent athleticism and speed. Ariane Carnelossi is very well built for the weight class. She’s extremely muscular with decent power and explosiveness in her punches. Her striking is far from refined and most of her success has come via overwhelming smaller and weaker opponents. On the feet, I expect Rodriguez to land more consistently. Carnelossi will have a power advantage, but Rodriguez works well behind her jab and does a good job keeping her opponents on their back foot. Rodriguez has a decent 66% takedown defense in the UFC, with her only loss coming to a grappler in Gillian Robertson. She should have a grappling advantage in this match-up and her striking should be far more refined than her opponents in this match-up. This is a volatile fight as Carnelossi has been out of action for so long, but I expect Rodriguez can secure this one on the scorecards. Piera Rodriguez by Decision
Abus Magomedov -275 vs Warlley Alves +220
- Anthony: This is a contest at middleweight between Warlley Alves and Abus Magomedov. Both of these men are coming off multiple losses and desperate to get back into the win column here today. Magomedov looked a bit meek in his last octagon appearance but that came facing a very good athlete in Caio Borralho. Alves is dangerous to strike with but at this stage of his career I expect Magomedov to be landing the better shots. Magomedov is more fluid, throwing punches in combination and staying light on his feet. Alves will be a threat to finish Magomedov early but this is likely a bout that sways out of his favor the later it goes. He will be landing with more volume than Alves and placing more strikes on target. Alves will land big body kicks early but eventually I expect him to fade and get stopped. Four of the last five losses for Alves came inside of the distance. Abus Magomedov by Round Three KO
- Nick: Abus Magomedov is a rangy striker with a decent wrestling base and dangerous BJJ. He throws extremely powerful strikes, but he struggles if opponents can close distance on him and force him to fight off his back foot. He’s coming off back-to-back losses to an elite level of competition in Caio Borralho and Sean Strickland. He’s a competent grappler, but his questionable cardio forces him to play out most of his fights at striking range. Alves is a well-rounded fighter, but his career certainly seems to be on the decline. He’s a strong grappler with effective BJJ, but his gas tank/cardio prevents him from leaning on that part of his game. He’s a powerful striker at range with excellent body kicks, but he often seems to fade as his fights wear on. He’s coming off three straight losses for the first time in his career. Alves’ skills and athleticism are undeniable, but he’s wildly inconsistent so it’s tough to know how he’ll look on any given night. The line does feel wide, but I do see Magomedov as the rightful favorite. As long as he stays out of danger here early, I expect he can take over rather quickly. Abus Magomedov by Round Two KO
Melissa Gatto -325 vs Tamires Vidal +260
- Anthony: Next is a contest at women’s bantamweight with Melissa Gatto set to face Tamires Vidal. While this event features several of these lower level matchups I must say that this particular fight does not pique my interest. Gatto enters this matchup off two consecutive losses but sits as the -325 favorite. Gatto is much more sound technically than Vidal but her striking offense rarely yields knockdowns or big moments. Vidal is the stronger athlete and more likely of these two to find a victory via stoppage. I think while Gatto may fall behind at times countering Vidal’s offense, she should put together the better three rounds of work. Gatto is quick with her hands and capable of taking fights to the mat as she needs to. Her striking accuracy is much higher than that of Vidal. Melissa Gatto by Decision
- Nick: Melissa Gatto lands more than four significant strikes per minute, but she’s primarily a grappler. She struggles at times to get her opponents to the mat, but she has advanced BJJ ability and she can be very dangerous off her back. She is 8-2-2 professionally, coming off close decision losses to Ariane Lipski and Tracy Cortez. There is a chance she’s fighting to hold her roster spot here, and there is certainly no denying this match-up with Vidal represents a considerable step-down in terms of level of competition. Tamires Vidal does a good job closing distance and landing powerful shots. She takes a lot of damage in exchanges, but she’s very durable and her power often has more impact than the majority of her opponents do at 135 pounds. At 25-years old she’s going to continue to improve, and she’s shown on more than one occasion that she can be very dangerous as an offensive grappler. She’s coming off a narrow decision loss to Montserrat Rendon. The line feels a bit wide here, but I do expect Gatto’s strength and general experience to keep her a step ahead. Melissa Gatto by Decision
Oumar Sy -550 vs Tuco Tokkos +400
- Anthony: This is a fight at light heavyweight between Oumar Sy and Tuco Tokkos. The 9-0 Sy is an exciting entry to this division and finally debuting here today after several opponent changes. Tokkos is also debuting here today but he is not anywhere near as polished as Sy. It is a tall task asking Tokkos to beat the undefeated prospect when looking at the competition he has just faced. Tokkos most recent wins come over Myron Dennis and Brian Jackson who is 1-10 as a pro. Sy is the rightful favorite in this spot. He is physically much more imposing than Tokkos and likely to make his size felt here. This weight cut was a challenge for Sy but that is to be expected after this fight was announced officially just five days ago. Tokkos will not land much offense of his own facing a striker with nine inches of reach on him. Sy will land big shots from range here and keep Tokkos defending while backing him up. I also give Sy the edge grappling in this fight if he does elect to take his man to the ground. Oumar Sy by Round One KO
- Nick: Oumar Sy is making his UFC debut here, coming off a KO win over Ildemar Alcântara for a regional promotion in France called King of Fighting. He is 9-0 professionally, and 28 years-old. He’s relatively well-rounded with four of his professional wins coming via KO and three coming via submission. Tuco Tokkos will also be making his UFC debut here, coming off a win over Myron Dennis for Fury FC. At 33 years-old it’s somewhat strange he’s getting a shot in the UFC here, as he’s been inconsistent on the regional scene, but he throws powerful strikes and he has dangerous BJJ offensively when his fights hit the mat. Additionally, it’s expected we’ll see an improved version of him here as he’s been training at KillCliffFC. Oumar Sy is the brother of PFL Champion Sadibou Sy, and it seems the UFC is looking to boost his stock here against a relatively low level opponent in Tokkos. The price feels far too wide, but I do expect Sy is a justified favorite. Oumar Sy by Round Two KO
Tom Nolan -450 vs Victor Martinez +340
- Anthony: The featured prelim is a good one at lightweight with Victor Martinez facing Tom Nolan. We saw Nolan lose in his UFC debut, getting stopped early against Nikolas Motta. This kid seems solid with good length and striking to blend into the lightweight division, but Nolan has always been risky when it comes to leading with his chin. We could see a more measured approach from Nolan today upon suffering his first professional loss. I think a modest pace could benefit Nolan as he really puts his skills on display at range here facing Martinez. While the resume for Nolan is a bit thin, he has still faced far better competition than what Martinez has thus far. Martinez is going to compete with Nolan standing but I doubt he can face that power for very long. Martinez is tough but this is a spot where I could see him finished by a much more dynamic opponent. Tom Nolan by Round One KO
- Nick: Tom Nolan is 6-1 professionally, coming off the first loss of his career via KO to Nikolas Motta, in his UFC debut. He’s 24-years old, fighting out of Queensland, Australia. He’s an aggressive striker with solid BJJ, but he certainly seems to favor fighting on the feet. Four of his six professional wins have come via KO. Victor Martinez has solid regional experience fighting for Fury FC and Combate. He’s an aggressive striker who carries surprising power for his frame. He has decent BJJ, but it seems he’s mostly content to stand and trade in most match-ups. He’s coming off an ugly KO loss to a grappler Jordan Leavitt, which came in the first round of his UFC debut. Nolan is going to be the bigger fighter here, and he’s going to have a considerable power advantage on the feet. The line feels wide given his questionable durability, but I do expect he can find the finish as the favorite. Tom Nolan by Round One KO
Main Card- Starts 7:00pm EST
Angela Hill -150 vs Luana Pinheiro +125
- Anthony: Our main card opens with the women’s strawweight matchup of Luana Pinheiro and Angela Hill. This is the 25th appearance in the UFC for Hill who comes off a win in her last showing. She is extremely consistent, good at winning minutes on the feet with steady volume and solid attacks in combination. Hill can have her offense nullified by confident grapplers but otherwise she will always keep fights competitive while standing. She has a slight edge over Pinheiro here with her straight shots and a more measured pace. While Pinheiro seems likely to win this first round in this bout, Hill should be the more active in rounds two and three. Pinheiro has shown deficiencies when it comes to her cardio and that never seems to be an issue for Angela Hill. I expect her to win a decision here in a fight very likely to see the scorecards. I won’t bet her as -150 odds seem too pricey. Hill has more losses than wins since joining the promotion. Angela Hill by Decision
- Nick: This fight will mark Angela Hill’s 25th with the UFC. Hill is well-rounded, with a powerful muay thai striking base. She is a competent grappler with decent BJJ, but most of her success has come striking both in the clinch as well as in open space. She’s coming off an impressive win over Denise Gomes, but at 38-years old there is a decent chance her career could be winding down. Luana Pinheiro is 3-1 in the UFC, with wins over Sam Hughes and Michelle Waterson-Gomez. She is relatively well-rounded. She puts out decent volume on the feet and if she can drag her opponents to the mat she has dangerous offensive grappling ability. She’s coming off an ugly loss to Amanda Ribas, but Ribas is widely regarded as a prospect on the rise. I expect Pinheiro will be dangerous early here, but as long as Hill can extend this fight she should have technical advantages no matter where this fight goes. Another low confidence play, but I expect Hill’s experience to carry her to victory. Angela Hill by Decision
Adrian Yanez -425 vs Vinicius Salvador +325
- Anthony: This is a great bantamweight matchup between Vinicius Salvador and Adrian Yanez. Salvador is moving up to 135 pounds here after missing weight for his last flyweight appearance. Both of these exciting strikers are desperate to get back to their winning ways after suffering consecutive losses. I still think rather highly of Yanez but his defensive awareness needs to vastly improve. Yanez is an elite boxer in this weight class but he eats too many strikes in the pocket. Salvador uses his length effectively and will find a home for his straight shots early. Both men have lapses in their striking defense that make me weary to bet on them. Yanez could run into some more trouble here if Salvador is aggressive and landing with his kicks early on. I think Yanez does win but at these odds I do not feel comfortable betting on him. He will unload on his combinations here once he starts to see Salvador slowing down. I think he has a decisive power advantage and the much faster hands. Adrian Yanez by Round Two KO
- Nick: Adrian Yanez is a very technical boxer who throws sharp and effective combos better than many of the more experienced fighters in this division. He does a good job using combos to set up his power shots, and his advanced boxing instincts at a young age have a lot of people already comparing him to Jorge Masvidal. Similar to Masvidal, he does a good job throwing feints and leading his opponents into traps. All of the strikes he throws are meaningful. Yanez is coming off back-to-back losses for the first time in his career, but they came to elite level competition in Jonathan Martinez and Rob Font. Vinicius Salvador is primarily a striker, with thirteen of his fourteen professional wins having come via KO. He trains with UFC vet Amanda Ribas, under the tutelage of her father Marcelo Ribas. While he’s had a lot of success regionally, there is really no denying most of his wins have come against a questionable level of competition. He’s decent on the mat, but it’s tough to gauge his level as he favors striking in most of his recent match-ups. He’s moving up a weight class here after struggling to make weight at flyweight. Coming off back-to-back losses, there’s a good chance he’s fighting to hold onto his roster spot here. Simply put, it feels like the UFC is trying to get Yanez back on track here. He’s the much better striker in this match-up, and I expect he can find a finish quickly. Adrian Yanez by Round One KO
Themba Gorimbo -150 vs Ramiz Brahimaj +125
- Anthony: The featured bout is a welterweight contest between Themba Gorimbo and Ramiz Brahimaj. Gorimbo has really developed his skills over the past several years training at MMA Masters. He is coming off a victory over Pete Rodriguez that saw him win by knockout in under one minute. Gorimbo is a daunting athlete with good size for this division and a burning desire to win. While I worry about Gorimbo against more technically skilled opponents he tends to be very present in his fights and urgent to fight his way out of compromising positions. Brahimaj has not been quite as active lately but he is a considerate step up in competition for Gorimbo as he climbs the ranks. I think Brahimaj’s left hand will find a home in this fight against the oncoming Gorimbo. Brahimaj also holds a clear edge over Gorimbo in terms of his grappling. Gorimbo can generally find his way back to the feet but his takedown defense is not really the most consistent. Brahimaj is quick to threaten with submission attempts whenever he gets the fight grounded. I expect him to be urgently looking to grapple with Gorimbo here today. Ramiz Brahimaj by Round Two Submission
- Nick: Themba Gorimbo is a powerful striker, capable of throwing a wide range of creative attacks offensively. That being said his defense and durability have shown to be weaknesses rather than strengths so far in his professional career. He likes to wrestle, but his takedown entries are not technically sound which makes it easy for most of his opponents to stay standing. He has been showing considerable improvements over his last few fights, but there is no denying he is still raw in his abilities. Ramiz Brahimaj is primarily a grappler with all nine of his professional wins coming via submission. He usually starts fights aggressive, but if he can’t find the early finish his cardio has been somewhat of a weakness. On the feet, he has sneaky power and he pushes at a good pace. However, he often overexerts while throwing combinations and he seems very willing to take damage in exchanges. Brahimaj will need to be careful in maintaining his gas tank here. He’ll also need to be sure to tuck his chin if these guys are striking in close. He’s certainly live for the upset, but I find myself backing Gorimbo. I expect he’s making the more dramatic and notable improvements fight-to-fight at this point in his career. Brahimaj will be extremely dangerous early, but I expect Gorimbo can pull away here in the later rounds. Themba Gorimbo by Round Three KO
Khaos Williams -130 vs Carlston Harris +110
- Anthony: The co-main event is a fun fight at welterweight between Khaos Williams and Carlston Harris. These are two intriguing contenders that have a lot of improving to do despite winning in their most recent appearances. Williams was a bit lackluster when facing Rolando Bedoya in his short notice debut. While Williams can stay composed late in his fights it is evident that he is only a serious power threat in the early going. Someone like Harris could prevent Williams from finding his range striking and wear on him in high pace grappling exchanges. Harris is a very skilled jiu jitsu practitioner that can flip fights on their head with his grappling. Harris was losing every minute in his fight with Jeremiah Wells before putting him unconscious with a choke at the start of round three. He is a bit of an enigma having such a wide arsenal of submissions to draw from. Harris is also an awkward opponent to face standing given his square stance and looping left hooks. Harris also weaponizes his kicks much more than Williams has showcased. I will bet on Harris once again here as the betting underdog. Carlston Harris by Round Two Submission
- Nick: Khaos Williams is growing a reputation as a knockout artist, but he has a decent wrestling base which is evident by his success on the regional scene. He’s coming off a hard fought decision win over Ronaldo Bedoya, he is 14-3 professionally and 5-2 in the UFC. Williams has true KO power, he’s a technical striker both offensively and defensively and he’s going to be the much bigger fighter in this match-up. He can be overly conservative at times as he waits for fights to come to him, but he’s still making improvements at just 30-years old. Harris is 36-years old and 4-1 in the UFC, with his only loss coming to a future title contender in Shavkat Rakhmonov. He’s well rounded with five professional wins coming via KO and six coming via submission. He’s an explosive athlete for his age, and a potent finisher no matter where his fights go. He does a good job honing in on the weaknesses of his opponents, but his aggressive style can occasionally leave him open to be countered or controlled. This is a tough fight to call as both of these fighters are potent finishers. I slightly prefer Williams as we’ve never seen him finished professionally. Khaos Williams by Round Two KO
Lerone Murphy -165 vs Edson Barboza +130
- Anthony: The main event comes at featherweight between Lerone Murphy and Edson Barboza. This is an excellent piece of matchmaking with the unbeaten Murphy facing an elite gatekeeper like Barboza. In his last fight Barboza turned back prospect Sodiq Yusuff after nearly being stopped in a 10-8 first round. Barboza clearly still has it all working for him even at 38 years old. This looked to be another tough cut for Barboza but he is a real physical specimen fighting down at 145 pounds. The reach he holds over Murphy will play a key factor here as Barboza makes it very difficult for opponents to close the distance. I have never been all that impressed with Murphy and while I think he is certainly a hard hitting striker is not nearly as technically skilled as Junior. Murphy’s resume pales in comparison to that of Barboza who has shared the cage with champions and contenders for years. Barboza is going to find his offense landing more consistently than Murphy here in this bout. He is once again being disrespected as the betting underdog and I plan to take full advantage. Edson Barboza by Decision
- Nick: Lerone Murphy is a well-rounded fighter with impressive speed and an excellent gas tank. He comes into this fight with a 13-0-1 professional record, having won each of his last four fights under the UFC banner. Murphy is a gifted striker with enough grappling ability, both offensively and defensively, to hang with the majority of the division. He has developed a reputation as a slow starter and his volume seems low at times, but he’s shown to have a fairly high fight IQ as his fights wear on and he can be very dangerous once he starts building momentum. Edson Barboza does a good job using kicks to keep pressure on his opponents. He was an early adopter of the ever-popular leg-kick and he uses it more effectively than anyone on the roster. Barboza has an excellent job mixing in body work and setting up his punches with feints. He’s one of the best strikers in the UFC, with serious KO power in all of his limbs. Barboza has been inconsistent at times, but he usually only struggles against grapplers. In a match-up like this where the fight should take place standing, there is massive value on him as an underdog. Barboza is coming off impressive wins over Billy Quarantillo and Sodiq Yusuff. At 38-years-old there is no denying the fact he’s past his prime, but he’s shown he can compete with the top level talent at featherweight. Murphy will be dangerous here and it’s understandable he’s the favorite in this match-up. Still, Barboza is still athletic enough that his experience and technical advantages should shine through over the course of five rounds. I like the value of the underdog in this one. Edson Barboza by Round Four KO
-Nick Marro
Twitter: @NickMarroDFS
-Anthony Marro
Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_
Photo: UFC.com