One of the fastest rising quarterback prospects we have seen in years, Daniels offers a tantalizing upside that could see him become the 2nd overall pick. But he’s far from a sure thing.
Let’s take a look at how he projects at the next level.
Jayden Daniels – Quarterback LSU
Height: 6’4”
Weight: 210 lbs
Year: Super Senior
Age: 23.3
Arm Length: ?
Hand Size: ?
NFL Player Comparison: Robert Griffin III
There aren’t many offensive coordinators who wouldn’t be enticed thinking about what they could do by injecting Daniels into their offence. Daniels just put together one of the best statistical college football seasons in recent memory en route to a Heisman trophy. He passed for 3,812 yards with 40 touchdowns (and only 4 INTs) to go along with 1,134 yards and 10 more touchdowns on the ground. He led the country in total yards (4,946) yards per game (412.2) yards per play (10.7) and total touchdowns (50).
Daniels has game altering speed. When he decides to take off, there are few defenders that can catch him – as his elite speed makes choosing the right angle in pursuit next to impossible. When he gets out of the pocket, he isn’t running away from just linebackers and safeties – he’s embarrassing cornerbacks who just can’t keep up with his explosiveness. He’ll be highlighted for all defensive coordinators in the NFL as they try to combat his athleticism. Teams have to factor in his running game, and whoever drafts him will be designing plays to get him into space as a runner. His upside as a rushing quarterback is greater than the Kyler Murray’s and Lamar Jackson’s of the world, which is an extremely high bar, but an achievable one.
Not only was Daniels a big time threat on the ground in 2023, but he quarterbacked an explosive passing offence as well.
Daniels is able to play in structure very well, and throws an extremely catchable ball – the kind that just nestles into the arms of the receiver. The spiral is clean, and he knows how to place it to avoid the defender and keep his receivers out of danger. He has good accuracy which is accentuated by him being a constant threat on the ground. It also forces defences to stay in the box and opens up plays down the field. However, he does lack elite level arm strength. His receivers were excellent at pumping up Daniels stats with their ability to track the ball and win contested catches in college.
Comparing Daniels to RG3 might seem like an insult due to Griffin’s short and unremarkable overall career, but when he first entered the league he was an absolute menace to defences. If Daniels’ new offensive coordinator is able to fully harness his elite athletic skill set, you gain an additional weapon in the run game, an almost impossible to defend RPO set, and a passing game that will always be able to find one-on-one matchups deep for the receivers.
While the upside for Daniels is tantalizing, the red flags are quite obvious when watching his game film.
Daniels, like the other top quarterbacks in the class, didn’t test at the combine. But, unlike everyone else, he also didn’t do his measurables. He did eventually weigh in on his pro day and came in at 210 lbs. Watching him on the field, I would be shocked if he weighs more than 195 lbs come game time. He’s tall, which scouts love, but his slender body frame is far from ideal. That wouldn’t be as much of a problem if Daniels had shown any sign of knowing how to avoid hits or when to slide. Early on in the college football season, Jayden Daniels inexplicably tries to hurdle the line and is met in the air with a massive hit by the linebacker. You cannot question his compete level, but he needs to use some logic behind a decision like that. The play was a 1st and 10 in the first quarter of a 7-7 game, so putting himself at risk to that degree just isn’t necessary. If he continues to play this reckless at the NFL level, his career arc will unfortunately mimic Griffin’s. It’s hard to see how someone that slim can withstand taking that kind of contact on a consistent basis against grown men.
Another major knock on Daniels is something that recently sunk the value of another exciting athletic quarterback – Justin Fields. Daniels, like Fields, struggles with his decision making against pressure. His first instinct against pressure is to just tuck the ball and scramble, which makes sense considering his athletic ability.
However, if you look at some of the numbers, his pressure to sack rate and pressure to completed throw rates are both very concerning. Throughout his college career he’s lacked the ability to take what the defence gives him and tries to make something happen when nothing is available. That wasn’t a massive problem last year at LSU, as he was able to set a career low in pressure to sack rate. But he was also playing behind one of the best offensive lines in the country led by Will Campbell, who’s likely to be one of the top offensive tackles in the 2025 NFL draft. Trying to teach Daniels to be more patient in the pocket, while learning to keep his eyes downfield on his scrambles, but also allowing him to be his creative self is an extremely daunting task. Especially for a somewhat older prospect.
At this time last year, Daniels was barely on the radar as a true NFL prospect. His growth in the past year is incredibly impressive. I certainly don’t want to take away from what this young man has been able to accomplish over his college career. However, that college career has seen him as a starter for an extremely long time, and his true breakout year was spent behind an elite offensive line while also throwing to two elite receiver prospects who are both likely to be taken in the first round of this year’s draft in Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr. Nabers and Thomas’ draft stocks have also risen dramatically due to their ability to separate and track down rogue throws that have come from their quarterback. Daniels passing chart shows a propensity to lob balls up to Nabers and Thomas Jr. on the outside of the hashmarks, so there are serious concerns about his ability to attack the middle of the field.
The athletic profile of Daniels makes him an almost sure fire top 3 pick in this year’s draft, and I understand why teams who are picking that high are willing to take a chance on bringing in an elite offensive weapon. In fantasy, Daniels would easily be my number one QB pick in rookie drafts. However, for real life NFL football, I have my doubts.
-Devon Gallant
Twitter: @DevGallant
Photo: Tammy Anthony Baker. This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license.