UFC 300 – 4.13.2024 – Fight Predictions and Analysis
Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC 300: Pereira vs Hill. On this Saturday we are treated to a stacked evening of fights from the world combat sports leader. This anniversary event features three title fights and a crazy slate of prelims in Las Vegas. Our analysis includes a pick for every bout from Dynes Sports contributors Anthony Marro and Nicholas Marro.
As coverage continues, we will keep our records up to date below. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick though as records will not reflect confidence. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few.
Current Record
- Anthony: 92-55-0 (Last Year 307-199-6, 61%)
- Nick: 88-59-0 (Last Year 324-182-6, 64%)
*Fight odds were last updated from Bet99 on 4-12-2024 at 11pm EST
Early Prelims- Start 6:00pm EST
Deiveson Figueiredo -300 vs Cody Garbrandt +240
- Anthony: The quality of this fight card can be seen from the very first bout with two former champions facing off. This matchup was originally booked back in 2020 with Garbrandt set to challenge for Figgy’s flyweight title. Now instead we see this materialize at bantamweight where Garbrandt was once champion. I have actually been impressed with Garbrandt as of late, earning two wins last year. He still has tremendous speed and plenty of fight left in him at just 32. However, Garbrandt has a chin that we have seen cracked on numerous occasions before. It is hard to get to the window betting Cody without fear of seeing him knocked out badly for what would be the fifth time. Figueiredo without a doubt has the power to put Garbrandt out. We have seen Figgy fight a bit hesitantly in the past but he should feel comfortable moving forward here against this style opponent. Garbrandt may look to mix in his grappling to stay out of harm’s way here but Figueiredo is also a jiu jitsu black belt and lethal submission threat. It is an uphill battle for Garbrandt to win this fight, first and foremost needing to survive the first round. Deiveson Figueiredo by Round One Submission
- Nick: When he’s at his best, Deiveson Figueiredo is aggressive to the point that his opponents struggle to get into a rhythm against him. He pushes a ridiculous pace and does a good job circling away from danger in striking exchanges. He’s a competent grappler with dangerous BJJ, but he’s certainly most content to stand and trade on the feet. Figueiredo is coming off his first win at bantamweight, a convincing decision over Rob Font. He recently moved up a weight class, as a former champion at 125 lbs. The less severe weight cut should improve his chin and cardio moving forward, but it’s also true he’ll no longer have the physical advantages he did fighting at flyweight. Cody Garbrandt, a former bantamweight champion, has been struggling to stick in the rankings. His chin and durability seem to have mostly dissolved, as he’s lost five of his last eight fights. At his best, Garbrandt is a highly technical striker who can frustrate his opponents with precision and speed. He has a decent wrestling base as a long-time member of Team Alpha Male, and he’s also shown to have surprising power for his limited frame. He has lost some speed over the years, but he looked excellent his last time out, securing a KO win over Brian Kelleher. While Garbrandt has built some momentum coming into this fight, his wins are against a very low level of opponent. Garbrandt is dangerous on the feet, Figueiredo is an excellent counter striker and if Garbrandt does look to wrestle Figueiredo has a dangerous enough BJJ game that he should be able to work his way back to his feet with relative ease. The line feels a bit wide here, but Garbrandt’s lack of durability should show here against such an aggressive and powerful opponent. Deiveson Figueiredo by Round Two KO
Bobby Green -185 vs Jim Miller +150
- Anthony: This is a fun matchup at lightweight between Bobby Green and Jim Miller. History will be made by Jim Miller tonight having previously competed and won fights at UFC 100 and UFC 200. He holds the record for most appearances with this being his 44th fight in the promotion today. Miller also won in both of his previous fights, boasting the most UFC wins with 26 total. He is slow and less effective now at this age, but Miller still has power in his hands and a very methodical approach to his fighting. Miller does a great job chipping away at his opponents and quickly getting himself into situations he can thrive. His grappling is better than that of Bobby Green while he will likely struggle in a boxing or kickboxing match. Green has the speed and footwork to really make it hard for Miller to close distance and find his chin. I hope Miller can be urgent getting his hands on Green and working this fight to the canvas. Green is the rightful favorite but I think you are silly to bet him at -185. Miller will not look like he is 40 tonight facing an opponent with similar mileage and wear. Jim Miller by Round One Submission
- Nick: Bobby Green is a well-rounded fighter, but his shoulder-roll boxing style is what stands out when you watch him on film. He usually wins fights by out-striking his opponents at boxing range. He throws a lot of volume, with decent power on his shots, and he generally does a good job stringing together effective combinations. While Green is certainly a quality boxer offensively, he tends to keep his hands down more often than he should. He likes to talk to and taunt his opponents as he fights, which occasionally leaves him on the wrong end of exchanges. Fighting at UFC 100, UFC 200, and now UFC 300, Jim Miller is one of the more accomplished veterans on the UFC roster. He’s a decent striker, but he’s found most of his success on the mat. He has excellent BJJ and twenty of his thirty-seven professional wins have come via submission. He has won five of his last six fights, including his most recent win via round three submission of Gabriel Benitez. Given Miller’s age, I wouldn’t be shocked if he fell in this spot. However, he’s the more durable fighter in this match-up. Additionally, he’s going to be a nightmare for Green here if this fight does hit the mat. This is a low confidence play as Green is the much better technical striker on the feet, but I’ll take a small stab at the underdog. Jim Miller by Decision
Jessica Andrade -140 vs Marina Rodriguez +115
- Anthony: This is a fight between ranked athletes at strawweight as Jessica Andrade will face Marina Rodriguez. I am expecting a close back and forth in this all Brazilian matchup but paying a short price for Andrade seems like the right play. The recent victory against Mackenzie Dern again gives me confidence in Andrade who had been on a bit of a skid. The former champion has proven that she still has what it takes to win her style of fight. Rodriguez here will be looking to counter Andrade and keep the distance with her strikes. Andrade will need to find ways to close the distance here against a longer fighter, something that has traditionally not been an issue for her. She likes to make fights dirty. Andrade is effective at manipulating clinch positions and scoring damage on her opponents as they are pressed against the cage. That could be a position these two largely find themselves with Andrade testing her strength against that of Rodriguez. Rodriguez may be favored if this does get to the scorecards but I think Andrade is the value side here. She has the better finishing equity. Jessica Andrade by Decision
- Nick: Andrade fights out of a compact stance and she’s easily one of the most powerful punchers in this division. She lands nearly seven significant strikes per minute in the UFC, and she’s fought and won against the majority of the elite women on the roster. She is coming off a win via KO over Mackenzie Dern, but it seems she could be winding down as she’s taken a lot of damage in many of her fights. Marina Rodriguez is excellent in the clinch and she lands more than five significant strikes per minute. She is somewhat upright in her stance, but she has excellent cardio and durability and she is certainly willing to take damage in order to land on her opponents. She throws combinations better than most of the women in the division. Rodriguez will be live to pull off the upset here if this fight only takes place at striking range. That being said, Andrade has a very clear path to victory if she chooses to get her grappling going. She averages more than two takedowns per fifteen minutes, and Rodriguez has shown she’s going to struggle if she finds herself on her back. I like Andrade to secure the win here, potentially via ground-and-pound. Jessica Andrade by Round Three KO
Jalin Turner -250 vs Renato Moicano +200
- Anthony: This is a fun matchup at lightweight with Renato Moicano set to face Jalin Turner. Both men here are coming off of wins with Moicano beating Drew Dober just over two months ago. Moicano has really put together a resume of quality these past few years, receiving little public support during his rise through the ranks. I am a bit surprised seeing him this large an underdog in what is a rather competitive fight on paper. Moicano will surely struggle with Turner on the feet. Turner has very clean striking and lands with a high rate of accuracy thanks to his length and natural size. Moicano is the more compact fighter and likely reliant on his grappling to earn a win today. One thing I like about Moicano is his urgency and I expect at least a few submission attempts out of him here. Turner has been effective fighting out of chokes but he will be up against it if Moicano can maneuver into back control or another strong position. It seems crazy to lay -250 on Turner against anybody given his questionable cardio. Weight cuts seem to take a lot out of him as he stands 6’3 at lightweight. I feel there is money to be made instead on the underdog. If this doesn’t end early, I think Moicano will grind out this win. Renato Moicano by Decision
- Nick: Jalin Turner is a well rounded fighter who’s greatest strength is his surprisingly long reach and length for the division. He does an excellent job using his long frame to keep opponents at a distance. He has enough power in his shots to end a fight early with a single strike, but it’s mostly the volume with his jab that makes him so effective. All fourteen of Turner’s professional victories have come by way of finish. At 28-years old, it seems Turner is hitting his prime. He seems to have filled out his wiry frame, his punches are landing cleaner and he’s made dramatic improvements in his BJJ and wrestling. Renato Moiciano is an advanced BJJ black belt. He has outstanding offensive grappling and he does a good job scrambling into favorable positions against a wide-range of opponents. His greatest strengths are definitely shown on the mat, but he is comfortable striking both in the clinch and in open space. If Moicano can take Turner down he’ll be live for an upset via submission. However, the massive size difference here is likely to make that extremely difficult. I expect Turner to dominate the striking at range here until he finds Moicano’s chin. Jalin Turner by Round One KO
Preliminary Card- Starts 8:00pm EST
Diego Lopes -150 vs Sodiq Yusuff +125
- Anthony: This should be a good featherweight contest with Diego Lopes set to face Sodiq Yusuff. Lopes is climbing up these rankings fast after three incredible performances. He is a phenomenal offensive grappler with better jiu jitsu than anyone he has faced. Lopes is improving with his hands as well and a winner by knockout in his last octagon appearance. I really like his measured aggression and the fast action style that he fights. His transitions are much better than Yusuff who will struggle to keep up defending chokes and armbars. I think that this is a very close fight on paper with the grappler facing a good striker. Yusuff connects with 5.72 significant strikes per minute and oftentimes lands his shots while eating little damage in return. He could win here by jabbing away at Lopes and hoping to keep the feet, but I fear Yusuff will eventually succumb to one or more takedowns. I think at -150 or better Lopes is a good bet to win. Diego Lopes by Round One Submission
- Nick: Lopes is 23-6 professionally with nine wins coming via KO and twelve coming via submission. He’s primarily a grappler with slick BJJ and excellent overall scrambling ability. He’s coming off back-to-back wins via finish over Gavin Tucker and Pat Sabatini. He’s a prospect on the rise in the featherweight division, and it seems his striking continues to improve every time we see him in the cage. Sodiq Yusuff has outstanding Muay-Thai striking ability. He’s well rounded, but he’s absolutely most comfortable fighting on the feet as six of his thirteen professional wins have come via KO. He has outstanding power for this division, he is excellent in the clinch as he’s highly developed in his striking abilities. This is another binary fight in that Yusuff is the much better striker and Lopes is the much better grappler. I prefer the Lopes side as I feel the gap in striking ability between these two isn’t anywhere near the gap in grappling. Lopes should be able to find a submission after weathering an early storm from Yusuff. Diego Lopes by Round Two Submission
Kayla Harrison -450 vs Holly Holm +350
- Anthony: This is the UFC debut for Kayla Harrison facing Holly Holm here. Harrison is a 16-1 professional with a lifetime of success in combat sports. She is a two time Olympic gold medalist in judo and by far one of the best judoka to ever compete in the octagon. Harrison showed tremendous commitment this camp, making the cut to bantamweight for the first time. She is a very big woman with the advantage of strength over everyone inside the division’s top ten. Holm presents the perfect test for Harrison here in her debut. The former champion has solid takedown defense and a steady cage presence that tends to rattle newcomers. Holm does have the edge over Harrison’s striking too, I just find it hard to expect her knocking out Harrison here at the age of 42. Holm is looking a bit slower at this stage of her career and if Harrison is able to corral her I think its a one-sided fight. Harrison should be able to execute a game plan and display grappling dominance here in the biggest fight of her career. Kayla Harrison by Round One Submission
- Nick: Kayla Harrison will be making her UFC debut here, as a former PFL Champion, and a two-time Olympic Gold Medalist in judo. Harrison is one of the more decorated women’s MMA practitioners in the entire world. She is 33 years-old and 16-1 professionally, with six wins coming via KO and six coming via submission. Harrison is primarily a grappler, and her strength as a judoka is likely to shake up the women’s roster at 135 lbs. She has outstanding offensive grappling ability, and she’s capable of securing takedowns in seemingly countless ways. Harris will be moving down a weight class here in her promotional debut, having most recently fought at a 150 lb catchweight against Aspen Ladd in PFL. Holly Holm has fought the best-of-the-best at women’s bantamweight. She’s the more experienced of the two fighters here in MMA and when it comes to striking, she really is the class of this division. She’s an outstanding boxer with stellar footwork and head movement. She throws powerful combinations and has true KO power in all of her limbs. She is certainly past her prime as she is currently 42-years old, but there is no denying she is still one of the tougher outs in the division. Holm is going to be the far better striker in this match-up, but Harrison did seem to make weight without issue. It’s safe to expect the favorite will be looking to lean on her grappling here against a dangerous striker in Holm. The line feels wide, but I expect we see a ground-and-pound KO after some early resistance. Kayla Harrison by Round Two KO
Aljamain Sterling -165 vs Calvin Kattar +140
- Anthony: This is a fight at featherweight between Aljamain Sterling and Calvin Kattar. I find this bout to be one of the toughest to call on the fight card given the unknowns surrounding both fighters. Sterling is coming off a knockout loss to Sean O’Malley last fall. The defeat forced Sterling’s move up to 145 pounds but I do not think he will have any problem fitting in here at this weight division. Sterling is a physical specimen with great physique and the strength to effectively grapple bigger opponents. He is much more talented than Kattar but stylistically I could see him having some trouble. Kattar’s boxing is very clean and Sterling will need to be careful not making mistakes on his entries into the pocket. Kattar has done well defending most takedowns against him but this is the first real grappling threat we have seen him compete with in some time. Funkmaster is a real problem when he can get to the back and stay glued to his opponents. I like his chances of getting a jump on Kattar here and finding his way on a quick choke. Kattar’s poor footwork leaves him a bit susceptible to the single leg attack of Sterling. If not an early submission for Sterling, I expect this to be a very close decision. Aljamain Sterling by Round One Submission
- Nick: Aljamain Sterling usually starts his fights aggressively. His strikes don’t pack a ton of power, but he’s mostly accurate, and he does a good job frustrating his opponents at range with his unconventional style. He is primarily a wrestler with excellent takedown ability and BJJ. His best position is on his opponents’ back(s), and one could argue that he’s changed the meta of the sport with his utilization of the body triangle. Sterling will be moving up a weight class here, after dropping the bantamweight title to Sean O’Malley in August of 2019. As is the case in many of Sterling’s fights, it can be expected he’ll be looking to get his grappling going both early and often here. Calvin Kattar is a high-level boxer, fighting primarily out of a traditional boxing stance. He has excellent footwork and head movement defensively and he works extremely well offensively behind his powerful jab. He’s extremely durable, which was most evident in his loss to Max Holloway where he ate more than 400 significant strikes. He has excellent cardio as well, but he’s been out of action since 2022 after tearing his ACL in a TKO loss to Arnold Allen. Simply put, this is a poor stylistic match-up for Kattar. Sterling’s grappling is going to be a problem for him as he really hasn’t fought a wrestler on Sterlings level. If Kattar can somehow keep this standing he’ll be live for the upset as he’s the better striker here. Still, I see Sterling as the rightful favorite. Aljamain Sterling by Decision
Aleksandar Rakic -115 vs Jiri Prochazka -105
- Anthony: The featured prelim is a light heavyweight fight between Jiri Prochazka and Aleksandar Rakic. These are two very skilled athletes and I am excited to see them get after it. There are some questions surrounding both men here with this being Rakic’s first fight in almost two years. He should be ready to compete, back healed from injury and able to fight a hard three rounds. Rakic has the grappling edge over Prochazka. He most experienced fighting in a cage and using it to his advantage. However, I favor Prochazka for as long as this fight is taking place in open space. Prochazka attacks with more unorthodox angles and varied movement than Rakic. He is more creative with his entries into the pocket and although Prochazka has been hittable in the past I expect to see an improved outing from him defensively. Jiri has no choice but to learn from the errors that have cost him in his two most recent fights. If he can fight intelligently and stay away from Rakic’s biggest bombs, this will be his fight to lose. Rakic is rarely at a reach deficit but he will need to find a way to deal with the 80” arms of Prochazka. I think Jiri has the better overall resume and reason to garner my action at even money. Jiri Prochazka by Decision
- Nick: Jiri Prochazka, a former division champion, tends to come out aggressive in his fights, making big movements around the cage and swinging wildly. He has shown stellar power and an ability to close the distance on his opponents both quickly and violently. He sometimes over-exerts on punches in exchanges and leaves himself open to counter shots, but he’s as dangerous of a fighter as there is in the world at 205 pounds. Prochazka most recently fell to Alex Periera. via KO, in a title fight back in November of 2023. Aleksandar Rakic is a highly technical boxer with ridiculous athleticism and explosiveness. He is athletic for the division, but he sometimes overextends and gets caught in exchanges. At times it seems he’s overcautious as he waits for fights to come to him. In this particular match-up, that shouldn’t be an issue against a very dangerous opponent in Prochazka. Rakic has been out of action since 2022, after he injured his knee in a fight against former champion Jan Blachowicz. Rakic prefers to stand and strike, but he has underrated grappling ability and he could have a considerable wrestling advantage in this match-up. That being said, I’m siding with Prochazka here. He’s the more explosive striker and I expect he’ll dictate the pace in this matchup. If he is taken down, he’s shown he has the ability to quickly work his way back to his feet. I also don’t like the fact that this is Rakic’s first fight since surgery. Jiri Prochazka by Round Two KO
Main Card- Starts 10:00pm EST
Bo Nickal -2000 vs Cody Brundage +1000
- Anthony: The main card opens with this middleweight bout between Bo Nickal and Cody Brundage. The promotion is touting the 5-0 Nickal as a future champion in this sport. Nickal has an insane wrestling pedigree and some of the best grappling fundamentals we have seen displayed inside of an octagon. It has been a steady development in professional martial arts for Nickal who is still evolving constantly at 28 years old. His striking gets better with each fight camp and when it comes to physical strength it does not appear many middleweights can outmuscle him. Nickal’s dominant wrestling allows him to instantly match up with anyone outside of this division’s top ten. Brundage has a good grappling base developed through Division II wrestling but simply does not have what it takes to hold up against Nickal in that style of a fight. Brundage is also not very formidable when it comes to his striking or other aspects of this fight. It is a crazy price to pay for Nickal but it does not surprise me to see him so heavily favored. He seems like a sure bet to get the win here in what is really a squash match. Bo Nickal by Round One Submission
- Nick: Bo Nickal is widely considered one of the best prospects in the sport of MMA. He is only 5-0 professionally, but all of those wins have come via first round finish. What Nickal lacks in professional MMA experience, he more than makes up for in wrestling credentials. Nickal was awarded the 2019 Dan Hodge Trophy as the nation’s most outstanding collegiate wrestler for that year. He was a finalist in the 2020 Olympic Team trials, and a three-time NCAA Division I National Champion. Nickal trains at American Top Team where he’s been working on his striking extensively with the likes of Mike Brown and Jorge Masvidal. He’s shown to have true one-shot power, he’s an explosive athlete and he’s expected to climb the rankings at 185 rather quickly. Brundage has a powerful wrestling base and he does a good job pouring damage on his opponents if he can find himself in top position. He can be dangerous on the feet, but he telegraphs most of his strikes and recently it seems his cardio has become a major weakness. He is 10-5 professionally and coming off back-to-back wins, but there is no denying he’s being used as a stepping stone here for his opponent. The line is somewhat comical here, but outside of a freak accident/injury, Nickal should dominate. Bo Nickal by Round One KO
Arman Tsarukyan -225 vs Charles Oliveira +185
- Anthony: This is a lightweight title eliminator between Arman Tsarukyan and the former champion Charles Oliveira. I have been extremely profitable betting on Oliveira as an underdog and once again I like this spot for Do Bronx to earn the victory. Oliveira’s only loss in his previous thirteen fights came in 2022 against Islam Makhachev. A capable wrestler like Tsarukyan could provide some stylistic challenges for Oliveira, but I do not figure it will be easy getting himself into a position of control. Tsarukyan is effective at implementing his grappling against lower level fighters but he may fail to maintain position against a jiu jitsu ace like Charles. Tsarukyan is also a power threat on the feet but does not have striking anywhere near as technically sound as Oliveira. He will struggle to keep up when these two are kickboxing given Charles’ speed and exceptional length. I expect to see a lot of Charles’ best work done in the clinch, landing heavy knees and elbows on Tsarukyan. He will be the more active fighter early, forcing action on the feet and threatening with submissions. While I do not feel good betting against the rising Tsarukyan, I do not think he has all the tools to earn this win here today. Charles Oliveira by Round Two KO
- Nick: Arman Tsarukyan is one of the more underrated fighters in the UFC. He’s an effective wrestler as well as a creative striker with an extremely high Fight IQ and durability. Tsarukyan has one of the better single-leg entries in the division. His scrambling and defensive grappling are outstanding, as they were fully on display in his UFC debut against current champion, Islam Makhachev. Tsarukyan does a good job kicking at range, and he’s coming off back-to-back wins via KO over Joaquim Silva and Beneil Dariush. While he is durable, he’s also sometimes hittable in his more chaotic exchanges. He is 21-3, and he hasn’t been finished professionally since 2015. Charles Oliveira is a third-degree black belt in BJJ and pound-for-pound one of the best grapplers in the world. His striking has dramatically improved over the course of his career and he’s recently shown serious improvement in his ability to throw combinations. He’s coming off an impressive win via KO over a tough out in Beneil Dariush, and his only loss 2017 came against the division’s current champion, Islam Makhachev. This is an extremely volatile match-up as Tsarukyan should have a considerable wrestling advantage, but Oliveira is the far more potent finisher both standing and on the mat. This is a low confidence play, but I’ll take a shot on Oliveira here at underdog odds. Charles Oliveira by Round Two KO
Justin Gaethje -165 vs Max Holloway +140
- Anthony: This is a five round lightweight contest with Justin Gaethje defending his BMF Title against Max Holloway. The move to lightweight has been a longtime coming for former featherweight champion Max Holloway. I am very excited to see what Max is capable of fighting with some added muscle and core body strength. Certainly Holloway will benefit from the added pounds facing a killer in this division such as Gaethje. While Gaethje is known for being a technical brawler, he has really showcased exceptional kickboxing skills over his previous few appearances. Gaethje is dialed in under the direction of coach Trevor Whittman and fighting much more composed than was the case in his early career. He will keep a high guard for a large portion of this bout while chopping at the legs of the oncoming Holloway. I expect the fight to be decided today largely by the quality of attacks Gathje lands. Holloway can take over in this bout by keeping Gaethje at range and picking him apart with overwhelming volume. Holloway holds records in the promotion for total strikes landed. He also touts a granite chin that we have never before seen cracked. Defensive awareness and superior boxing will end up earning Holloway this win. At plus money, I will take my chances betting on him. Max Holloway by Decision
- Nick: Max Holloway has outstanding head movement, near flawless footwork, and against inferior strikers he’s known to put on unforgettable performances. He showed a willingness to grapple in his 2021 match-up with Yair Rodriguez, but I fully expect him to mostly stand and trade here as he looks to build on an already outstanding legacy. Holloway lands more than seven significant strikes per minute and he absorbs less than five. He has secured wins in four of his last five fights, but he’s moving up a weight class here to challenge Gaethje for the BMF TItle. Justin Gaethje is a brawler. His kill-or-be-killed style has landed him Fight of the Night or Performance of the Night bonuses in ten of his twelve bouts in the UFC. He’s continued to improve in terms of his technical ability, but there’s no denying his will to engage in a dangerous firefight. Gaethje is coming off impressive wins over Dustin Poirier and Rafael Fiziev. His KO of Dustin Poirier captured the Vacant UFC BMF Title Belt, which he’ll be defending over five rounds in this match-up. Gaethje is going to be aggressive here, but Holloway should have a considerable technical advantage defensively. Both of these fighters have exceptional cardio and durability, so landing cleaning strikes and taking less damage over five rounds should be enough for Holloway to eventually pull away. I’m concerned about the danger of Gaethje’s leg kicks and his general size advantage, but the value here is on Holloway. Max Holloway by Decision
Zhang Weili -500 vs Yan Xiaonan +380
- Anthony: The co-main event is a strawweight title bout between Zhang Weili and Yan Xiaonan. This historic matchup will see two athletes from China competing for a world championship. Zhang Weili is rightfully the favorite in this matchup as she continues her second championship reign. The lifetime martial artist has only two losses the past decade, both coming in bouts against Rose Namajunas. She has been active and extremely consistent in every one of her octagon appearances. Weili has a power advantage over most girls at this weight and significant physical strength compared to them. She does not need to rely on her grappling to win in this fight but I expect Weili to dominate if she elects to shoot for takedowns. Her most recent performance came in a win over Amanda Lemos that was one of the most dominant in women’s combat history. Xianon has great hands and the ability to hurt Weili, I simply expect the champion to be a bit too complete for her. Weili will only lose her title here if she walks onto one of Xiaonan’s great counters. Seeing the way Carla Esparza stopped Xianon, I think Weili has a great chance of winning inside the distance. She will look dominant if this does go for a full five rounds. And Still. Zhang Weili by Decision
- Nick: Yan Xiaonan is a gifted striker who can fight at a fast and effective pace. She’s coming off back-to-back wins over Jessica Andrade and Mackenzie Dern, and she’ll be challenging for the title here for the first time in her career. Xianon has a solid understanding of footwork, she’s strong in the clinch and while her takedown defense isn’t great, it has come a long way over her last few appearances. Zhang Weili, the current UFC Strawweight Champion, is coming off wins over Joanna Jerdzejcyk, Carla Esparza, and most recently Amanda Lemos. She’s 24-3 professionally, but at 34-years old she is still very much within her athletic prime. She is a gifted athlete and extremely strong for the division. She is primarily a striker, but she can finish a fight no matter where it goes. Weili has been training under the Hickman Brothers, some of the better coaches in the world in terms of wrestling in MMA. She’s been showing considerable improvements in her grappling ability, her Fight IQ, and it’s certainly encouraging to know she’s been training with a higher level of athlete than she was in her home gym(s) in China. Weili is going to have a technical striking advantage here, but I do expect she’ll lean on a grappling heavy game plan as that presents her clearest path to victory. And Still. Zhang Weili by Round Three Submission
Alex Pereira -130 vs Jamahal Hill +110
- Anthony: The main event will decide the light heavyweight champion as Alex Pereira welcomes Jamahal Hill back to the cage. This fight came together under rather unusual circumstances with no other fighters ready to headline this massive event. I give props to Hill for stepping up and taking this fight with rather short notice and while still on the mend from injury. Hill vacated the title after announcing a ruptured Achilles tendon that had him scheduled out until this summer. I cannot say confidently that Hill is healthy enough to be competing at a championship level, but he seems very happy with his recovery. Even at full strength I do imagine Hill struggling in a kickboxing match with former Glory champion Alex Pereira. The Brazilian is more reckless defensively than Hill but he hits just as hard and with better technique. Hill really has exceptional boxing fundamentals but nothing he does is all that spectacular. Pereira sat cageside for Hill’s last fight in Brazil when he beat his mentor and good friend Glover Teixeira. I expect Pereira to take an aggressive approach here, chopping at Hill’s legs early and forcing action quickly from the opposite stance. The low calf kick will play a key factor in deciding this one as Hill looks to employ his own offensive firepower early. Pereira is going to exploit the poor footwork of Hill and catch him with the bigger countershots. I expect this to be one of his better performances, drawing into a rather favorable opponent yet again. Hill won’t be grappling, and in a striking match I will not fade Poatan. And Still. Alex Pereira by Round Two KO
- Nick: Alex Pereira carries knockout power in all of his limbs. He moves fluidly on the feet, he has outstanding footwork and head movement, and in terms of overall technical ability there’s no denying he’s one of the best strikers on the roster. There is a major hole in his game as he has very little grappling ability, but he’s been training under Glover Teixiera so there’s a good chance he’ll continue to show improvements on the mat. Pereira is coming off a KO win over Jiri Prochazka to capture the light heavyweight title. Five of Jamahal Hill’s last six wins have come via KO. He is averaging more than 7 significant strikes landed per minute. He has outstanding speed and footwork for a light heavyweight. He works well behind his jab and does an excellent job mixing power into his lengthy combinations. He’s a gifted counter-striker, carrying an impressive +3.96 strike differential so far in the UFC. He has underrated offensive grappling ability, and his takedown defense sits at a respectable 73%. Hill was the light heavyweight champion before he was forced to vacate the title due to a brutal achilles injury. This is first back since his achilles surgery, so it’s tough to know which version we see of him here. At 100% health, there would be a lot of value on HIll here as an underdog. That being said, I have to side with Pereira. His countering ability is advanced enough to end Hill if Hill is overaggressive. And Still. Alex Pereira by Round Two KO
-Nick Marro
Twitter: @NickMarroDFS
-Anthony Marro
Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_
Photo: UFC.com