UFC 295: Prochazka vs Pereira – 11.11.2023 – Fight Predictions and Analysis
Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC 295: Procházka vs Pereira. Fights return today to Madison Square Garden with both the heavyweight and light heavyweight championship on the line. Our analysis includes a pick for every bout from Dynes Sports contributors Anthony Marro and Nicholas Marro.
As coverage continues, we will keep our records up to date below. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick though as records will not reflect confidence. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few.
Current Record
- Anthony: 273-173-5 (Last Year 320-187-3, 63%)
- Nick: 291-155-5 (Last Year 324-183-3, 64%)
*Fight odds were last updated from Bet99 on 11-10-2023 at 11pm EST
Early Prelims- Starts 6:00pm EST
Jamall Emmers -250 vs Dennis Buzukja +200
- Anthony: The card begins today at featherweight with Jamall Emmers set to face Dennis Buzukja. I consider Emmers a solid gatekeeper in this division, beating lower level opponents and struggling against the upper crust. He last fought in June losing a split decision to Jack Jenkins. He has the edge in terms of boxing skills in this matchup but also if implementing his wrestling. Buzukja is explosive but often too eager to brawl. Emmers pumps out his jab nicely and I see damage adding up rather quickly on the face of Buzukja here today. It will be tough for him to close the distance effectively against an opponent that is much longer. Buzukja also struggled against a lanky striker in his last fight, coming up short against Sean Woodson. I considered Buzukja live in this spot but Emmers seems like a safe bet to secure the victory. He should outwork Buzukja and put together a more complete display of skills. Jamall Emmers by Decision
- Nick: Emmers is a rangy striker with surprising power for his frame. He’s decent on the feet, but he’s also a cerebral wrestler who has shown he can takedown a wide range of opponents. The one major knock on Emmers is his fight IQ. He almost always seems to be winning fights early until he makes more decisions and gives them away. He’s coming off a controversial decision loss to Jack Jenkins, a fight in which he could have been awarded the decision if he was just a bit more active/aggressive. Dennis Buzukja is 11-3 professionally, coming off a hard fought loss in his UFC debut to a gifted striker in Sean Woodson. He gave a good showing of himself in that fight in spite of the loss, staying competitive until the scorecards even though he was an underdog in the match-up and taking the fight on short notice. He does an excellent job landing shots out of breaks and if he can close distance here he’s going to be dangerous in exchanges. That being said, Emmers is the more well-rounded fighter with far more experience at this level. He should be able to secure a win here, as he should be the better fighter no matter where this one goes. I expect a grappling heavy gameplan from the favorite. Jamall Emmers by Decision
Joshua Van -220 vs Kevin Borjas +180
- Anthony: Next is a fun fight at flyweight between Kevin Borjas and Joshua Van. This is a big stage for both young men to fight with Van at just 22 years old. His pace and volume are good even for this division, pumping out consistent volume and power shots from either hand. I like that he mixes in a lot of varied techniques to keep his opponent guessing and on the retreat. Borjas does not seem like an opponent looking to take too many backward steps here, often relying on the finish to secure his wins. I consider Borjas the harder hitter of these two but also the more spastic and volatile. Van should be able to set a pace that Borjas will struggle with if able to connect and get into a rhythm early. Van has also displayed some solid offensive grappling over the course of his young career. He trains with a great team in Houston Texas and I anticipate quite a few UFC wins ahead of him. The same I cannot say yet for Borjas. Joshua Van by Round Two KO
- Nick: Joshua Van is 8-1 professionally, with five wins coming via KO and two coming via submission. He’s coming off an impressive win via decision in his UFC debut over a tough out in Zhalgas Zhumagulov. He was extremely impressive as he took that fight on short notice, and for a 22-year old he is already very well-rounded and dangerous no matter where his fights go. Kevin Borjas will be making his UFC debut here, coming off a solid Contender Series win over Victor Dias. He is 9-1 professionally, with eight wins coming via KO and one coming via decision. At 25-years-old he continues to show considerable improvements every time we see him fight. He’s primarily a striker, but he has solid takedown defense and generally does a good job working back to his feet if he’s taken down. There is some volatility in this match-up as these are two young and relatively untested fighters. That being said, I do see Van as the more technically advanced of the two. Joshua Van by Decision
John Castaneda -130 vs Kyung Ho Kang +110
- Anthony: Here we have a fight between John Castaneda and Kyung Ho Kang. This matchup is a catchweight of 138-pounds. While I have struggled to read these fighters in the past I think Kang would be described as more consistent. He is an established athlete in the promotion who has continued to win bouts now at the age of 36. I am expecting these two to engage some meager shots on the feet with neither overwhelming the other with volume. Both do pump out a rather steady attack but Kang seems a bit more effective executing and landing with his longer ranged weapons. Castaneda has been wrestling more effectively lately too but Kang is a dangerous man to takedown and scramble with. I think Kang can win by submission in this spot but the most likely outcome seems to be a close decision. Although not confident my official pick is Kang, expecting him to slightly edge out these kickboxing exchanges. Kyung Ho Kang by Decision
- Nick: Castenada does a good job switching stances. He’s a technical striker that manages distance well. He’s a competent grappler, but he’s certainly most content to stand and exchange on the feet. He’s coming off a solid win via decision over Muin Gafurov, and he is now a respectable 4-2 in the UFC. Kang works behind a powerful jab. He’s a highly technical striker with excellent footwork and head movement, but he’s been inconsistent at the UFC level in spite of his physical gifts. Kang fights long, he does a good job using his offense to keep his opponents at range. That will be important for him here against a fighter in Castenada who can be dangerous when closing distance. Kang should be the better grappler here, and he should be competitive on the feet. This is a low confidence play, but I like the underdog to pull off the upset as he mostly leans on his grappling. Kyung Ho Kang by Decision
Jared Gordon -220 vs Mark Madsen +180
- Anthony: This is an interesting bout at lightweight between Jared Gordon and Mark Madsen. After formally holding quite high regard for The Olympian, Madsen suffered his first career loss last November at the hands of Grant Dawson. It was a bit disappointing seeing Madsen fade over the course of that bout before getting finished. It is hard to imagine much of a future for the guy who started his professional MMA career so late. Madsen is still improving slightly in terms of blending in strikes but he certainly will be fighting from behind in a boxing match with Jared Gordon. Both on the offensive and defensive side Gordon is much steadier and effective a striker. His grappling is serviceable and while I expect Madsen to likely get takedowns early, Gordon will certainly make shots hard to finish in rounds two and three. It will likely be a fight that goes the three round distance and while Gordon should outwork Madsen in the latter half of this one, I still expect a much closer matchup than what these odds imply. While he is one of my least confident picks on the card I will take Madsen here for what may be the last time. Mark Madsen by Decision
- Nick: Jared Gordon is extremely well-rounded. He’s a gritty veteran, coming off a No Contest in a fight against Bobby Green in which he was on the wrong end of an accidental head clash. Gordon works well behind his jab, he does a decent job closing distance to throw power, and he also does a good job timing takedown entries against a variety of his opponents. In this particular match-up I expect he’ll try to stand and trade, as he’s taking on an Olympic level wrestler in Mark Madsen. Mark Madsen is an Olympic Silver Medalist in greco-roman wrestling. He’s a powerful and effective chain grappler who is capable of explosive throws and offensive slams. He does an excellent job timing his entries for takedowns, and his striking seems to improve every time we see him fight. The one real knock on him has been his cardio, as he almost always seems to slow down in the third round. He’s coming off an ugly loss to Grant Dawson back in November of 2022. A fight in which he struggled to take Dawson down and then quickly started to fade. Madsen should be able to secure takedowns early, but Gordon should be able to consistently work his way back to his feet. Madsen is a good wrestler, but he’s really not a finisher. I expect Gordon can take over late here and get the win as Madsen starts to slow down. Jared Gordon by Round Three KO
Preliminary Card- Starts 8:00pm EST
Nazim Sadykhov -150 vs Viacheslav Borshchev +125
- Anthony: The preliminary card begins with lightweights Nazim Sadykhov and Viacheslav Borshchev. The betting line has moved steadily into the favor of Sadykhov this week although I am expecting a close bout here. Sadykhov carries the flag for Team Serra Longo and fights here in his home of New York. His stock is currently at an all-time high coming off a finish win of Terrance McKinney. Many figure Sadykhov likely to shoot for takedowns in this spot but he is very comfortable on the feet and striking as a southpaw. It would be wise to take advantage of Borshchev’s porous takedown defense because in a pure kickboxing match I don’t know anyone who is beating this guy. The losses have been ugly but wins for Borshchev are astonishingly good. His last bout against Hayisaer Maheshate was a true masterclass, picking him apart at all levels and scoring a total three knockdowns. Borshchev can target the liver of Sadykhov here if he’d like to as it will be open the entire time he is in southpaw. I think Borschev scores another big win here after forcing Sadykhov to fight him at range. Viacheslav Borshchev by Round Two KO
- Nick: Sadykhov is a dynamic striker on the feet. He has a solid wrestling base and a good understanding of BJJ when his fights hit the mat. Training at an early age, Sadykhov is one of these next generation fighters that has solid ability no matter where his fights go. He trains out of an excellent gym via Longo MMA and he’s the first fighter on the UFC roster to represent Azerbaijan. He’s coming off an impressive comeback win over Terrance McKinney, a fight in which he survived an ugly first round and then quickly took over and finished McKinney in the second round. Borschev is primarily a kickboxer. He throws extremely powerful shots with all of his limbs and he seems to have excellent head movement and footwork. As talented as he is on the feet, his grappling leaves a lot to be desired. He recently shifted camps to Team Alpha Male to focus on his wrestling, but he’s going to have trouble against the stronger wrestlers in this division. The key to this match-up will be Sadykhov’s ability to ground and keep Borschev down. This is probably my least confident pick on the card, but I predict he can and will. Nazim Sadykhov by Round Two Submission
Mateusz Rebecki -650 vs Roosevelt Roberts +400
- Anthony: Next we have a short notice booking between Mateusz Rebecki and Roosevelt Roberts. We had originally been slated to see Rebecki face Nurullo Aliev here today. Props to Roberts for stepping up and taking this scrap but with little preparation I find him having quite the uphill battle in order to secure himself a victory. He was heavy on the scales but that comes to no surprise with just a week of notice. While Roberts benefits from a size advantage here against the shorts Rebecki, that is about the only edge that he has. A quick 1-2 is Robert’s best weapon but otherwise on the feet we often see little more than just rudimentary boxing. Rebecki is more diverse in his attacks and likely to work Roberts to the body and to the legs. Rebecki also has a massive advantage in this fight when he elects to shoot for a takedown. Roberts takedown defense is just 53 percent while Rebecki has secured shots in every UFC appearance so far. I do not think Rebecki warrants just a dramatic price tag but nonetheless this should be a rather easy fight for him. Mateusz Rebecki by Round Two Submission
- Nick: Rebecki is 18-1 professionally, and the former FEN Lightweight Champion. He is coming off back-to-back wins under the UFC banner, including a dominant showing against Loik Radzhabov when he most recently fought back in June. Rebecki is a gifted grappler with solid striking ability and a seemingly very high Fight IQ. He makes effective decisions in the heat of battle, he does a good job capitalizing on the weaknesses of his opponents and he’s very strong for the division. Roosevelt Roberts will be returning to the UFC here as he’s taking this fight on short notice. He made it to the Semi-Finals of the most recent season of The Ultimate Fighter, but he fell to Austin Hubbard in a narrow decision. Roberts is a decent wrestler with solid striking ability on the feet, but his lack of Fight IQ and general overconfidence have seemingly been holding him back. Roberts has had issues with superior grapplers, and I certainly feel Rebecki falls into that category. The line is wide here, but with Roosevelt taking this fight on short notice it is likely justified. Mateusz Rebecki by Round One KO
Lupita Godinez -180 vs Tabatha Ricci +155
- Anthony: Next is a great women’s strawweight matchup with Tabatha Ricci set to face Lupita Godinez. This seems to be a bit of a mirror match given the frames and general style of these two athletes. I have become a big fan of both these women, impressing me in every fight since joining the UFC. Godinez seems particularly more skilled in terms of striking when compared to Ricci. While wrestling is a key factor in most Godinez fights, she also has quick hands and a great feel for boxing. It seems likely that Loopy lands the more effective strikes in this bout and likely separates herself from Ricci in that area. We never see Ricci scared to exchange on the feet but she does not have the same pop on her shots as what Godinez will be throwing. Ricci can control most girls with her offensive grappling but Godinez’ counter wrestling will make that very hard. It is anyone’s guess as to what happens if these two do grapple but Ricci bettors certainly hope that is the fight we end up seeing. I expect it to instead be a bout that Godinez can keep standing and win with her hands. Lupita Godinez by Decision
- Nick: Lupita Godinez is a well-rounded fighter, but most of her recent success has certainly come via her grappling. Since entering the UFC, Godinez has averaged more than 3.8 takedowns per fifteen minutes. Her striking continues to improve, but she absorbs nearly as many strikes as she lands. She doesn’t carry much power, but she throws compact strikes and does a good job mixing kicks into her combinations. Ricci has solid cardio and can fight at a very fast pace. She’s well-rounded, but her BJJ ability is her most refined skill. Her wrestling and striking continue to show considerable improvement in each of her fights. As a result of her recent success, it seems the UFC is starting to put their marketing machine behind her. She is coming off four straight wins, including her most recent in a dominant decision over Gillian Robertson. This should be a very competitive fight, but I do see Ricci having the bigger moments. I like the value of her here as the underdog. She has solid footwork defensively and I do think she’s the more dangerous grappler, even if Godinez has a slight wrestling advantage. Tabatha Ricci by Decision
Stephen Erceg -200 vs Alessandro Costa +160
- Anthony: The featured bout is a flyweight showdown between Stephen Erceg and Alessandro Costa. This is the second UFC fight for Erceg who enters off a great upset win in his debut. That fight showcased quite a lot from Erceg including some great striking and numerous well timed takedowns. He has displayed tremendous effort before and not once as a professional has Erceg gotten stopped. Costa is another flyweight prospect you can get excited over after earning another win in his last fight. Certainly he lands with more power than Erceg although Costa is far less consistent with his output or tactical in his cardiovascular control. Costa will get off to an early start in this bout and it will be up to Erceg to keep distance and battle back. While Costa may seem like an attractive underdog play I do consider him dependent on a stoppage to get this victory. For that reason I will take the more well rounded Erceg as I see these flyweights going a full three rounds. Stephen Erceg by Decision
- Nick: Erceg is 10-1 professionally, with six of those wins coming via submission. Erceg comes in on a nine-fight win streak, most recently securing an impressive win in his UFC debut over a ranked opponent in David Dvorak. Erceg’s striking looked much better than most expected it would in that fight. He certainly prefers to grapple, but he’s shown a well-rounded game and his cardio and durability are both strengths. Costa is explosive with surprising power for a flyweight, coming off an impressive KO win over Jimmy Flick. Costa is relatively well rounded with four of his thirteen professional wins coming via KO and six coming via submission. He’s extremely aggressive no matter where his fights go, but that sometimes comes at the expense of his defense. This should be a very fun and competitive match-up, but I do expect Erceg has enough technical ability to stay a step ahead. Costa is certainly live for an upset, but I do expect Erceg to score the win if this fight hits the scorecards. Steve Erceg by Decision
Main Card- Starts 10:00pm EST
Pat Sabatini -120 vs Diego Lopes +100
- Anthony: Opening the main card will be a featherweight fight between Pat Sabatini and Diego Lopes. I have bet Sabatini on several occasions before but find him most effective in bouts where he can grapple. The jiu jitsu black belt has proven to be a strong wrestler and great at maintaining control of his opponents when fights do hit the mat. Stylistically Lopes provides issues for Sabatini given his dynamic guard and urgency whilst rolling. The Brazilian is coming off a submission win in his last bout and overall a productive past two years of work. His striking is cleaner than that of Sabatini who still needs to develop further in that and other aspects of his game. While Sabatini will likely get a few early takedowns, I look forward to seeing Lopes answer with submission attempts and sweeps as he usually will. It may be difficult for Lopes to win a decision depending how long he’s on his back but I also think an opportunistic grappler like him has a great chance at catching a finish. At even odds this is quite a tough fight to pick but my money will be on the side of Lopes. Diego Lopes by Round Two Submission
- Nick: Sabatini is a well-rounded fighter with decent striking ability and slick BJJ. He is excellent in scrambles, he has shown solid body-lock takedown ability and his greatest strength comes via his strong wrestling base and takedown entries. Lopes is 22-6 professionally with eight wins coming via KO and twelve coming via submission. He’s primarily a grappler with slick BJJ, coming off an impressive win via triangle arm bar over a talented vet in Gavin Tucker. Lopes’ striking continues to improve, but he is most certainly going to be chasing submissions here. If Sabatini remains sound defensively, he should be able to control this fight on the mat and grind out a decision. However, Lopes is very active off his back in terms of chasing submissions. This is another low confidence play, but I do expect Lopes can find a way to score a finish here. Sabatini has a clear path to victory, but Lopes has the tools to pull off the upset. Diego Lopes by Round Three Submission
Benoit Saint-Denis -230 vs Matt Frevola +190
- Anthony: Next is a lightweight contest between Benoit Saint-Denis and Matt Frevola. This should be one of the card’s best fights with two great win streaks going head to head. Frevola has had a resurgence as of late, winning three straight fights by knockout. He is a live underdog that thrives here fighting in New York with the home crowd fully supporting him. His boxing is tight and with such tremendous hand speed there is certainly some danger exchanging with Frevola on his front foot. Although I am impressed with the recent showings from Frevola I have to praise Saint-Denis even more so than him. It was total domination in Saint-Denis last fight against Thiago Moises. This guy is a huge 155er who blends high level grappling with a high volume attack on the feet. Frevola defends a mere 42 percent of opponent takedowns which likely will be key here in this bout with Saint-Denis. We have seen the French fighter really smother opponents since joining the UFC, landing an average of nearly five takedowns per fight. He will methodically beat down on Frevola here, mixing in his entries and not standing opposite Frevola’s power for very long. Saint-Denis seems likely to get another finish in this spot after surviving a tough first round. Benoit Saint-Denis by Round Two Submission
- Nick: This is a Fight of the Night candidate and easily one of the more intriguing fights we have on this card. Frevola is fairly well-rounded, but his durability can be considered a weakness as he was KO’d in two of his three professional losses. He’s carrying a lot of momentum into this match-up, coming off an impressive KO over a really tough out in Drew Dober. Saint-Denis is a BJJ specialist with a solid wrestling base and an impressive arsenal of submissions at his disposal. He’s coming off four straight wins under the UFC banner, and he enters this fight with an impressive 12-1 record professionally. On the feet, he works well behind a powerful body kick. He is an aggressive striker who has shown excellent durability, and his excellent cardio generally supports his torrid pace. Frevola is going to be dangerous early, but I don’t see him matching Saint-Denis in terms of speed or accuracy on the feet. He could catch Saint-Denis with something in a barrage, but it’s very rare we see Saint-Denis fail to defend against powerful strikers. This is a tough fight to call, but I’m siding with the favorite. Benoit Saint-Denis by Round Two Submission
Mackenzie Dern -220 vs Jessica Andrade +180
- Anthony: The featured bout has strawweights Mackenzie Dern and Jessica Andrade set to face off. It is a rather compelling piece of matchmaking with Andrade looking to bounce back after three straight losses. Rarely has the former champion endured a lapse this long between wins albeit she has been facing top flight competition the likes of Erin Blanchfield and Tatiana Suarez. Andrade has defended 70 percent of opponent takedowns in her UFC career, it is just the elite wrestlers that seem to have their way with her. Dern is an elite jiu jitsu practitioner but in general her takedown entries are sloppy and inefficient. She averages less than one successful takedown per bout and when comparing her striking to that of Andrade there is quite a significant skill gap. It would not surprise me to see Dern win portions of this fight with solid top control but I figure most of all exchanges on the feet will be going the way of Andrade. Not only does Andrade hit much harder than Dern but also connects with nearly twice the offensive output on average. Despite the recent streak of losses I think Andrade is a good value bet here as the underdog. It seems very hard to justify playing Dern at a -220. Jessica Andrade by Decision
- Nick: Dern is one of the more decorated BJJ black belts in all of MMA. She has a nearly flawless ground game as a former world No. 1 ranked IBJJF competitor. She is an ADCC and no-gi BJJ World Champion, and a brutal match-up for any opponent when her fights hit the mat. In many ways, this is a classic striker vs. grappler match-up. Dern has shown dramatic improvements in her striking over her last few fights. She’s no longer the one-dimensional fighter she was when entering the UFC. Still, she’s definitely going to try to take this fight to the mat. Andrade fights out of a compact stance and she’s easily one of the most powerful punchers in WMMA. She lands nearly 7 significant strikes per minute in the UFC, and she’s fought and won against the majority of the elite women on the roster. She is coming off three-straight losses for the first time in her career, and it seems she could be slowing down as she’s taken a lot of damage in many of her fights. Andrade is the better striker in this match-up, but her takedown defense leaves a lot to be desired. Given the fact her glaring weakness plays into Dern’s greatest strengths, I expect she’ll struggle in this matchup. Mackenzie Dern by Round Two Submission
Tom Aspinall -110 vs Sergei Pavlovich -110
- Anthony: The co-main event will name the new interim heavyweight champion either Tom Aspinall or Sergei Pavlovich. While Jon Jones had initially been scheduled as this card’s headliner, his injury perhaps brings fans an even more compelling fight between the division’s top contenders. Pavlovich had been training in preparation as the title backup while Aspinall accepted this bout with very little notice to prepare. He weighed in heavier than Pavlovich yesterday on the scales and looks to be a bit less cut than usual, albeit I am sure Aspinall is still in phenomenal shape. He seems to have all the tools of a champion with aggressive striking and extremely quick hands. Very few heavyweights can match Aspinall in terms of his speed and boxing exchanges will likely decide the outcome of this bout. While Aspinall may be a step quicker and landing at a higher rate, Pavlovich puts everything behind his attacks in a reckless chase for the finish. He enters this title bout on a streak of six knockout wins, all coming inside a combined cage time of less than twelve minutes. Pavlovich has a nuke in his right hand that can surely put Aspinall to sleep if he connects cleanly with a hook or an uppercut. With an 84-inch reach it seems Pavlovich can establish his range before most opponents. While I do consider Aspinall the more skilled fighter and a likely future champion, my money is on Pavlovich if these two elect to stand and box. Aspinall would be wise to drag Pavlovich into deeper waters here rather than obliging him in a phone booth. He certainly would seem to have the edge grappling if he were to take that route. Sergei Pavlovich by Round One KO
- Nick: Aspinall is still developing as a prospect, but he had strung together nine consecutive wins via finish before tearing his ACL against Curtis Blaydes in July of 2022. He has since returned and secured a win via KO of Marcin Tybura, but he’s getting this title shot here more for his potential than what he’s accomplished in the division. He’s a surprisingly well-rounded heavyweight considering he only has sixteen total fights on his professional record. A former training partner of Tyson Fury, Aspinall has excellent footwork and head movement. He is a highly technical boxer with advanced ability both offensively and defensively. He has impressive speed for the division, and his ground game and BJJ are also well-above average for a heavyweight. Pavlovich has an extremely powerful left hand. He does a good job setting it up behind his jab and while he isn’t very fast, he is deceptively explosive for a heavyweight. Pavlovich is 18-1, with all eighteen wins coming via KO. He is coming off a career best victory over Curtis Blaydes, and prior to that he scored KOs over tough vets in Derrick Lewis and Tai Tuivasa. This is a tough fight to call as each fighter rarely makes it out of the first round. Pavlovich is likely going to have considerable power advantage in this match-up and he had a full camp as the back-up for Jones vs. Miocic, whereas Aspinall is taking this fight on relatively short notice. I could see Aspinall having success if he can take Pavlovich down, but that seems unlikely here – especially early. Heavyweight fights are volatile in nature, but I find myself on Pavlovich as his power exceeds that of Aspinall’s recent opponents. Sergei Pavlovich by Round One KO
Alex Pereira -120 vs Jiri Prochazka +100
- Anthony: The main event is an epic fight between Alex Pereira and Jiri Prochazka to decide the light heavyweight title. The last time we saw Prochazka compete, he was able to take the belt off of Glover Teixeira in round five of their back and forth war. Pereira cornered Teixeira in that bout and now gets the chance to exact revenge on behalf of his mentor. While Pereira has proven to be a one of a kind athlete, it would still surprise me to see him earn championships in two weight divisions with just ten pro MMA fights to his credit. He is less experienced than Prochazka in terms of mixing his arts and fighting through adversity inside of the cage. Pereira is a more steady presence than Prochazka. None of his strikes come with large telegraphs and defensively he is much more careful. Prochazka is a bit wild in terms of his striking throwing numerous attacks from odd angles. He loves to use elbows and kicks while moving forward, always pressuring opponents while staying light on his feet. Pereira throws a low leg kick that will likely slow down Prochazka but I still see Jiri holding an edge in speed over the course of this bout. He can move much better laterally and should prevent Pereira from taking control of the striking exchanges. Prochazka would also figure to be the superior grappler in this matchup if these two are to engage on the mat. Perhaps Prochazka will elect to shoot rather than challenge Pereira’s power, but even in a striking match I do favor Jiri slightly. I am a bit hesitant betting this fight after a prolonged hiatus for Prochazka but Pereira has not looked great in his past few bouts either. It is a sick clash between two titans and I expect Jiri to take back what is his. Jiri Prochazka by Round Two KO
- Nick: Alex Pereira carries KO power in all of his limbs. He moves fluidly on his feet. He has outstanding footwork and head movement and in terms of overall technical ability there’s no denying he’s one of the best strikers on the roster. There is a major hole in his game as he has very little grappling ability, but he’s been training under Glover Teixiera so there’s a good chance he’ll continue to show improvements on the mat. Pereira is coming off a narrow decision win over Jan Blachowicz, which took place in his debut at 205 lbs. His durability and cardio do seem to be waning a bit, but there is no denying the fact he’ll have technical advantages in this match-up. Jiri Prochazka has been out of action for 18-months due to a major shoulder injury and surgery. Prior to that he had strung together ten consecutive wins via KO. In all of his recent fights, Prochazka has come out aggressive and swinging wildly. He has shown stellar power and an ability to close the distance on his opponents both quickly and violently. He sometimes over-exerts on punches in exchanges and leaves himself open to counter shots, but he’s as dangerous of a fighter as there is in the world at 205 pounds. I’ve gone back and forth on this pick and this is certainly a fight I could see going either way. However, Prochazka’s size and aggressive style are unlike any opponent Pereira has seen before. This is a low confidence play as I do see Pereira as the better striker in terms of technical ability, but I expect Prochazka to use his grappling to level the playing field on the feet until he eventually finds a KO. Pereira’s leg kicks and general power are certainly a concern, but Prochazka is the more well-rounded and diverse fighter in this match-up. Jiri Prochazka by Round Three KO
-Nick Marro
Twitter: @NickMarroDFS
-Anthony Marro
Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_
Photo: UFC.com