Kellen Moore joining the Los Angeles Chargers as their offensive coordinator was one of the more compelling moves made by any front office this offseason. Justin Herbert and the Chargers’ offense desperately needed a shot in the arm, and Moore could help cure an offense that had become stagnant under Joe Lombardi. Moore had acquired a reputation for being full of offensive ingenuity during his time with the Dallas Cowboys.
During his four years as the Cowboys’ offensive coordinator, Moore helped the offense evolve and moulded Dak Prescott into one of the more surgical quarterbacks in the NFL. They were 8th in EPA from 2019-2022 and were top 10 in points in three of the last four years. The only time the Cowboys weren’t piling on the points was in 2020 when Prescott broke his ankle. Aside from that, they were consistently one of the best units in the NFL.
That lead-in isn’t to show the dichotomy of the NFL and the Chargers’ struggles. They’re not a roster that has fallen on particularly hard times in the last few seasons. They drafted Justin Herbert in 2020 and he immediately solidified himself as one of the NFL’s elite quarterbacks. During that time the team has improved year over year from a win standpoint. Even with Lombardi calling plays, the Chargers were 9th in EPA per play on offense from 2021 to 2022.
It wasn’t necessarily a bad offense. It couldn’t be. Herbert was joined by the likes of Keenan Allen, Austin Ekeler, Mike Williams, and Rashawn Slater. All of them are some of the best players at their positions or upper echelon NFL players. However you shake it, this Chargers offense was good.
But it needed a fresh face to help take them to the next level. Herbert was playing out of his skin, but conservative play calling often sapped the creative element of his game that we so desperately needed. The element that could have him rival the likes of Joe Burrow and Josh Allen for the title of best quarterback in the NFL not named Patrick Mahomes. Moore presented that opportunity.
We’re only three games into the NFL season, but the results have been promising for Herbert. Despite the Chargers sitting with a 1-2 record, Herbert has completed 74.1 percent of his passes for 939 yards and 6 touchdowns. He hasn’t thrown an interception in the regular season since Week 16 in 2022.
Where the Chargers have really felt the benefit of Moore so far is in the red zone. Through three games, the Chargers are averaging 0.310 EPA per play (7th in the NFL) and have scored a touchdown on 66 percent of their red zone drives – also good for 7th in the league. Last season with Lombardi, the Chargers averaged 0.117 EPA per red zone play, which was still good for 11th-best, but that increase in efficiency this season stems from having better playcalling.
There’s more variety in the playcalling, and Moore has taken the correct steps to maximize his best players’ traits on offense. Even the run game – which has long been an inefficient piece of the puzzle – is currently sixth in rushing success rate. The amalgamation of that has been one of the best red zone offenses in the NFL through three games. It’s hard to see that efficiency falling off either, especially given Moore’s previous success.
Meanwhile, the Cowboys were first in red zone touchdown percentage last season and were 1st in the NFL in EPA per play in the red zone. They were one of the better red zone teams throughout Moore’s time with the team. Therefore, any sort of drop-off for the Chargers will likely be minor – but given the talent, they’ll remain one of the best.
On the flip side, Moore’s former team is also feeling the impact of his departure. The Cowboys have started the season well, and the offense – up until their Week 3 loss to the Cardinals at least – has been performing well under Mike McCarthy and Brian Schottenheimer. However, they’ve struggled mightily in the red zone.
The Cowboys’ EPA per play in the red zone has dropped to -0.055, 25th in the NFL, while their red zone touchdown percentage is down to 40 percent, tied for 27th in the NFL. You don’t need to be an analytics nerd to know that’s a significant drop-off. One that can be immediately linked back to losing Moore’s smarts. The Cowboys’ offense, like the Chargers in previous seasons, has too much talent to not be good. But their struggles in the red zone are real.
We’re only three games into the NFL season, but already the impact that Kellen Moore had is clear at both ends of the spectrum. The Cowboys could be smarting from his loss for a while, but things are looking up for the Chargers.
-Thomas Valentine
Twitter: @tvalentinesport
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