With roughly a week to go until the MLB All-Star break, it’s time for fantasy owners to take stock of their squads. Are you a runaway freight train that just needs to keep your team on the rails down the stretch? Or do you need some help via trade, call up, or waiver wire find to get you over the hump?
Wherever you fall along that spectrum, you’ve likely got some studs and duds on your team, with a healthy dose of perplexing performers sprinkled in as well.
One such enigma is Houston Astros pitcher Cristian Javier. No player in baseball better encapsulates the mantra of “it’s a long season” than the 6’1” righty out of Santo Domingo.
On the surface his splits appear fine. 7-1 with a 78:25 K/BB ratio. His ERA and WHIP are usually more than serviceable, and he plays on a strong Astros team to boot.
However, following Monday’s 12-11 win over the Texas Rangers, fantasy owners can’t feel great about how Javier is closing out the first half of the season. The 26 year old was pulled after 4.1IP after giving up 9 hits, 2HR, and 8 earned runs. That’s good for a 16.62 ERa and 2.08 WHIP. Yikes…
Optimists will chalk up the poor performance to playing against the best offense in baseball. Few starting pitchers are going to dominate the Rangers lineup, and that’s just a fact. But this now marks the 3rd disastrous outing in a row for Javier, as fantasy owners who were relying on him to anchor their pitching staff are suddenly seeing their splits skyrocket, and not in a good way.
Prior to the implosion in Texas, Javier posted equally disappointing performances against the lowly Cardinals (last in the NL Central) and Mets (who finally won their first series in over a month on Sunday night). Neither squad will be confused for offensive juggernauts anytime soon, but Javier still managed to make them look the part.
Against St. Louis, the undrafted pitcher, fell victim to the longball, serving up another 2HRs on the afternoon, en route to a 4IP, 8H, 6ER, 1BB, 1K performance. That gave him a 13.50 ERA and 2.25 WHIP on the day, which essentially sunk anyone who started him in a DFS format.
But it was against New York that he had his most troubling outing to date. On June 21st he lasted only 2.1IP, while giving up 4 hits and 5 BB. To put that in perspective, that represents one fifth of his total free passes issued on the year. Mercifully Dusty Baker pulled him from the game with a 15.43 ERA and 3.86 WHIP.
Following his start against Washington on June 15th, Javier held a 2.90 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and .219 BAA. That would have put him 11th in the majors in ERA and 7th in WHIP. Fast forward 3 weeks and suddenly his ERA has ballooned to 4.34 with a 1.22 WHIP and .247 BAA.
Making matters worse, this isn’t simply a case of a team being outclassed and going through a rough patch. The Astros actually WON each of Javier’s last 3 outings, despite his poor outings.
Expectations were high coming off a strong 2022 performance. The Astros won the World Series, and Javier was part of two combined no-hitters on the year. One in the regular season, and one in the playoffs.
But given his recent struggles, the hard throwing Houston starter suddenly can’t be trusted. Entering the season ranked as the 49th best player available by Yahoo! Javier has seen his stock plummet on the secondary trade market.
Recent trades include being swapped 1 for 1 for Thairo Estrada, and being packaged with Drew Smyly in exchange for Lance Lynn and Cody Bellinger on the Yahoo! Trade market. Such deals likely would have received swift rejections had they been offered a month ago. We’re seeing a dip in velocity as his fastball is down 1.5MPH on average, and his spin rate has dropped as well.
Which puts fantasy owners in a difficult position. Does one trust that Houston can get their pitcher straightened out? Or is this the most value Javier will hold in redraft leagues and you’re best to cut bait and run?
The wise move is likely a “hold” at this point. Give him some time on your fantasy bench, and show some patience. Seeing what righty does in his first two outings post All-Star break should tell you everything you need to know about his current funk. If he lays a couple more eggs, you’ve got the green light to make a deal. But for now, hoping that he can return to the form he had in May is likely the best course of action.
-Kyle Skinner
Twitter: @JKyleSkinner
Photo: All-Pro Reels. This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic license.