With OTA’s fully underway in the NFL and mock drafts opening up across the various platforms, we here at the Dynes Pressbox are rolling out our first Fantasy Rankings of the season. While they’re put in the order we believe they should be drafted in, we’ll also be breaking them down into tiers to help you move onto plan B when your player inevitably gets selected 2 picks before you.
Tight ends are a fantasy owners worst enemy – unless you draft Travis Kelce. The gap between Kelce and the rest of the league is absolutely insane, but unfortunately only one team per league gets the pleasure of not having to worry about their tight end position all season. After Kelce there are a few good options, but the drop off between tiers at tight end is more extreme than at any other position.
Many drafters get caught without a tight end late and try to make it up by selecting two in the later rounds, hoping one hits, but that’s just a waste of a roster spot. If you don’t grab one of the top tight ends, playing the matchups and streaming tight ends is usually the way to go. There were also a number of supremely talented rookie tight ends taken in this years draft, and while there will be a number of them who carve out excellent NFL careers, the curse of the 1st year tight end is real. Almost no tight end in NFL history has had an overly successful rookie season, so don’t fall into the preseason hype about your favorite 1st year player.
Tier 1:
- 1. Travis Kelce KC
Kelce outscored the second highest tight end by 90 points last season. He was the only tight end to top 1,000 yards (finishing with 1338), the only one to top 90 receptions (110), and he led the position with 12 touchdowns. The Chiefs have one of the most explosive offenses, and a major reason is the on field chemistry between Kelce and Mahomes. They have a rag-tag group of receivers who will take turns having decent games, but Kelce is the one who racks up the points for that offense.
Tier 2:
While it’s boring to go with the general consensus when it comes to this tier, it’s hard to make a case for altering what PFF has already put out into the world for TE’s in Tier 2. The order might be different but these 5 TE’s are likely the next ones off the board on draft night.
- 2. Mark Andrews BAL
Mark Andrews is the only tight end to supplant Kelce from the TE1 position in the past 7 seasons. He played a career high 83% of offensive snaps last year with an elite 25.4% target rate. He was only able to find the end zone 5 times in 2022, but keep in mind that at the end of the season with Lamar Jackson on the bench, the Ravens essentially played without a passing offense. With Jackson back and happy, and a new offensive coordinator, Andrews is the best bet to challenge Kelce to be the lead tight end.
- 3. George Kittle SF
There are plenty of fantasy owners who have sworn off Kittle after a couple injury riddled seasons, but he played in 15 games last season and finished the year at the TE2. A big factor in that was he set a career high in touchdowns this past season with 11, so as long as Kyle Shanahan doesn’t go too crazy changing his offense, Kittle should be in line for another strong season.
- 4. T.J. Hockenson MIN
Detroit trading Hockenson to a division rival is still a move I will never understand, as the 25 year old blossomed in a larger role in Minnesota. He had the second most yards and receptions by a tight end in 2022, and while the Vikings brought in rookie Jordan Addison to replace Adam Thielen, Addison can’t be expected to soak up all of the 100 plus targets that went Thielen’s way last year. A slight uptick in touchdowns would be nice from Hockenson, but after seeing a target rate of 22.7% last season, that’s sure to increase, Hockenson is deserving of being on the top tight ends taken off the board.
- 5. Dallas Goedert PHI
Goedert had an injury riddled season, playing in only 12 games and finishing as the TE13. He was on pace to get close to 1,000 yards, and lead the league in yards after the catch per reception with 7.8. If he starts to slip into the late 4th/early 5th round, scoop him up and you will rarely be disappointed by his performance on the field.
- 6. Kyle Pitts ATL
Pitts is one of the rare cases who actually had a fairly productive rookie season, topping 1,000 yards but only recording 1 touchdown. There was no repeat in his sophomore season, as he only managed to suit up for 10 games. And when he did, was held back by a run heavy offense and poor quarterback play (only 58.9% of his targets were deemed catchable). He was one of the most disappointing fantasy players last season, and while the quarterback position doesn’t look to be any better this season, just being in the games makes Pitt a valuable asset to have.
TIER TWO FANTASY TEs 🗣️ pic.twitter.com/ugiiQVhVNi
— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) June 19, 2023
Tier 3:
Here, we have the remaining options to be your TE1. There’s a big gap between this group and tier 2, but if you’re not looking to stream tight ends all season, these are the guys you’ll be looking at. The key is to try and find one who has a clear path to being the number 2 option on their respective offense, and preferably offer something in the red zone. If they’re going to be the 3rd or 4th look on every passing down, chances are they are just going to be short check downs and not bring much value to you week to week.
- 7. Darren Waller NYG
Waller posted back to back TE2 seasons in 2019 and 2020, but has struggled with injuries since, missing a combined 14 games over the past 2 seasons. When healthy, he can still put up high end TE1 numbers, but that’s a pretty big ask at this point of his career. However, he tops this tier of players because he has the most skill, can finish in the red zone, and there is no clear WR1 within the Giants organization, so he has the clearest path to becoming Daniel Jones’ top receiving option.
- 8. Evan Engram JAX
While Engram can be one of the most inconsistent players in the NFL, there’s no doubting his talent level. He played all 17 games for the Jaguars last year and finished as the TE6. His performance was enough to convince the Jags to place the franchise tag on him for this coming season. The concerns with Engram, besides his inconsistent performances are twofold; 1) The Jags added Calvin Ridley at WR, giving them another big target, and 2) Engram had an incredible 74.5% catch rate in 2022, well above his career catch rate of 61% prior to the season. Granted, he was playing with the best quarterback he’s played with at the NFL level, but that number will likely regress back down to the mean in 2023.
- 9. Pat Freiermuth PIT
Freiermuth increased his targets and yards by a significant amount in his second season in the NFL, but had a big drop in catch percentage. He was also only able to find the end zone twice, after scoring 7 times in his rookie year. There was definitely a steep learning curve for new quarterback Kenny Pickett, who looks to take a step forward in his development heading into 2023. Pittsburgh invested heavily in their offensive line, and drafted one of the best blocking tight ends in the rookie class to help Pickett in the pocket, so Freiermuth should see some more accurate throws and be able to find the end zone more often.
- 10. David Njoku CLE
Njoku started the 2022 season off hot, and was among the league leaders in receptions and receiving yards by a tight end before missing a couple games due to injury. When he came back, he never looked fully comfortable, and rumours of his discontent surfaced yet again near the end of the year. The Browns signed him to a big deal last May, so they clearly expect a lot from him, but he’s yet to put together a full, fantasy relevant NFL season.
- 11. Chigoziem Okonkwo TEN
One of the trendiest late round picks at tight end, Okonkwo has the clearest path to a high volume of targets. The group of Titans receivers is barren, and while Treylon Burks is talented, he’s more of a downfield threat, leaving Okonkwo all alone to soak up the underneath targets. As a rookie, he only played in 50% of the team’s offensive snaps, but now that Austin Hooper has moved on, the starting role is all his. The Titans target the tight end position 25.7%, good for 3rd highest in the league, so Okonkwo could be in line for a breakout campaign.
Tier 4:
The remainder of the tight ends. Most of these players will never be picked up, but a few will be decent waiver wire additions on bye weeks or for (hopefully short term) injuries to your starters. There’ll be “breakout” games from the crop of talented rookies causing everyone to spend their FAAB to scoop them up, but buyers beware.
If I had to choose one rookie to take seriously, it would be Dalton Kincaid in Buffalo. He has the skills to line up in the slot on a regular basis and create mismatches, without having to worry about being out muscled while fulfilling the blocking duties of a tight end. He could be a nice addition to the Bills high powered offense. Higbee is reliable, knows how to get open, and could be the 2nd best receiver on that team, but it’s hard to trust the Rams offense after last season.
- 12. Greg Dulcich DEN
- 13. Cole Kmet CHI
- 14. Tyler Higbee LAR
- 15. Dalton Kincaid BUF
- 16. Mike Gesicki NE
- 17. Dalton Schultz HOU
- 18. Dawson Knox BUF
- 19. Sam Laporta DET
- 20. Gerald Everett LAC
- 21. Zach Ertz ARI
- 22. Irv Smith JR CIN
- 23. Noah Fant SEA
- 24. Michael Mayer LV
-Devon Gallant
Twitter: @DevGallant
Photo: All-Pro Reels. This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic license.