UFC Charlotte Preview & Analysis

UFC Charlotte: Rozenstruik vs Almeida – 5.13.2023 – Fight Predictions and Analysis

Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs Almeida. After a great pay-per-view last weekend, fight fans are treated to a great card here today in Charlotte, North Carolina. The event will be broadcast on ABC. Our analysis includes a pick for every bout from Dynes Sports contributors Anthony Marro and Nicholas Marro.

As coverage continues, we will keep our records up to date below. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick though as records will not reflect confidence. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few.

Current Record

• Anthony: 100-79-3 (Last Year 320-187-3, 63%)
• Nick: 115-64-3 (Last Year 324-183-3, 64%)

*Fight odds were last updated from Bet99 on 5-12-2023 at 11pm EST

Preliminary Card- Starts 12:00pm EST

Tainara Lisboa -120 vs Jessica-Rose Clark +100

• Anthony: The card today begins with a women’s bantamweight matchup of Tainara Lisboa and Jessica-Rose Clark. It is the UFC debut for the Brazilian Lisboa, entering the promotion 5-2 as a professional. She is a decent striker with rather crisp muay thai and a good clinch game. I like the strength and aggression she has displayed thus far in her young career, despite it coming against rather lackluster competition. Still, she seems viable in this division having already shared the cage with featherweight’s Norma Dumont a few years ago. Clark is not a very tough test at 135 pounds and as she enters on an 0-2 skid we should see a confident Lisboa standing across from her. I really do not think Clark is a special fighter but there is no denying her ability to scrap on the feet and certainly win most of the clinch positions Lisboa tends to thrive. Clark primarily struggles against talented grapplers of which Lisboa is not. I see this being a good clash between the two with a more experienced and gritty Clark ultimately getting her hand raised. I won’t be wagering on this particular matchup but it is a bit surprising to see Clark close the underdog. Jessica-Rose Clark by Decision 
• Nick: Tainara Lisboa will be making her UFC debut here, coming off three straight wins via finish. She is 5-2 professionally, but she really hasn’t been tested extensively against top level competition. She’s a Muay Thai striker and she should have an advantage on the feet here, but if Clark can take her down she’ll likely be in trouble. Jessica-Rose Clark is an effective and fairly-versatile striker. She lands nearly four significant strikes per minute and she carries a solid 59% striking defense. She has made serious improvements in her grappling as well. However, she was outclassed in that area in back-to-back losses to Stephanie Egger and Julija Stoliarenko. For the first time in a while, Clark should have the grappling advantage here. Lisboa is going to be dangerous in striking exchanges, but I’ll side with the more experienced fighter to edge this one out. Jessica-Rose Clark by Decision 

Gabe Green -135 vs Bryan Battle +110

• Anthony: Next is a matchup at welterweight between Bryan Battle and Gabe Green. On Friday, Battle looked rather meek on the scales as he weighed in two pounds heavy. It is an unfortunate site for the man training out of Charlotte and certainly garnering a lot of support from this crowd. I do like Battle’s skillset and the overall grit he has thus far displayed, although a career at welterweight may not necessarily serve him well. The last octagon appearance for Battle was a loss to Rinat Fakhretdinov where he had been taken down seven times. The deficiencies in defensive grappling are concerning as he faces opponents who have him outmuscled. While Green averages just a single takedown per fight, he could certainly steal a round off Battle using a well-time shot today. I also believe while Battle is the more diverse and technically skilled striker, Green does a better job absorbing shots and landing with power of his own. He is known to build as fights go late and against a sucked out opponent like Battle, I see him getting his hand raised. I predict him getting the nod in rounds two and three after dropping the first to Battle. Gabe Green by Decision
• Nick: Green has excellent cardio, he’s fairly well-rounded and he does a good job rolling with punches in exchanges. His chin seems solid and while he can be slow and plodding at times, he does do a good job throwing combinations once he can find proper openings. This was evident in his most recent win over Yohan Laniesse. Green took a lot of clean shots early in that fight, but he had a superior chin and cardio compared to Lainesse and ultimately knocked him out late in the second round. Green throws a lot of volume as he averages 6.20 significant strikes landed per fifteen minutes. However, he also eats a lot of strikes as well as he absorbs 6.92 in that same span. He’s coming off a loss to a very tough out in Ian Garry, a fight in which he was outclassed by a wide margin on the feet. Bryan Battle is a well-rounded fighter who continues to make dramatic improvements in all facets of his game. Battle does well striking at range. He’s a decent counter-grappler with advanced BJJ, but his overall takedown defense seems suspect at best. This lack of defensive grappling ability was fully on display in his most recent fight, a convincing loss to Rinat Fakhretdinov. He is certainly most content to stand and trade on the feet, and he’ll be in a more favorable match-up here against another primary striker in Gabe Green. This is one of the tougher fights on the card to call as both of these guys have similar styles. I’ll cautiously back Battle here as the value side as an underdog. Bryan Battle by Decision 

Ji Yeon Kim -220 vs Mandy Bohm +180

• Anthony: Next is a women’s flyweight matchup between Ji Yeon Kim and Mandy Bohm. This is a very low-level fight with women currently on large losing skids. Bohm has dropped two bouts in a row and looked rather awful in the process. The losing streak for Kim is a whopping four, but at the very least she has put on more competitive showings. Kim has not only been sharing the cage with some bantamweights, but also the current division champion Alexa Grasso. She has rather crisp boxing but has largely fallen victim to grapplers during this winless streak. I believe she gets back into the win column tonight but there is no chance I bet her as the sizable underdog. This is a fight I am not interested in watching, so nevermind risking my money on it. Ji Yeon Kim by Decision
• Nick: This is an extremely low-level match-up at women’s flyweight. Bohm is relatively well-rounded as a former TKO Flyweight champion. She has decent offensive striking ability at range, but she’s there to be countered in exchanges. She does a decent job mixing leg kicks into her combinations, but she telegraphs most of her strikes. She struggles to defend takedowns and her BJJ is certainly behind a good portion of this division. Ji Yeon Kim is well-rounded with an extensive background in multiple disciplines. She’s solid pretty much everywhere, but she has found most of her success on the feet. She’s coming off four consecutive losses under the UFC banner, and there’s a good chance she’s fighting to keep her roster spot in this match-up. Both Kim and Bohm have been struggling, but Kim’s struggles have come against a much higher level of competition. This is a low confidence play. It is tough to trust either fighter in this match-up, but Kim is the rightful favorite. Ji Yeon Kim by Decision 

Cody Stamann -160 vs Douglas Silva de Andrade +130

• Anthony: Next is a good scrap between Cody Stamann and Douglas Silva de Andrade. This is a matchup at 140 pounds despite both men regularly competing at bantamweight. An easier weight cut likely helps each, but certainly it will assist Stamann in terms of cardio issues that have plagued him in the past. Stamann has been victorious in his last two performances despite fighting rather underwhelming names. I do not view him as a top caliber fighter but in this draw against 37 year old Andrade, his chances seem good. Andrade is a brawler who will often look to stand and trade with his opponents. Of his 28 professional wins, twenty stoppages for Andrade have come by knockout. Stamann will likely utilize some wrestling here to control Andrade and bank minutes from a safe position. I am hesitant to back Stamann knowing he will spend plenty of time throwing haymakers of his own, but I do think he outworks Andrade over the course of a fifteen minute bout. Cardio will not be an issue for The Spartan as he enjoys the extra weight allowance today. Cody Stamann by Decision 
• Nick: Douglas Silva de Andrade is a brawler with a lot of power in his strikes. He’s very athletic, but what stands out about him is his toughness and aggressive style. He likes to pressure his opponents early in fights and often overwhelms them by doing so. Stamman is well rounded, but his greatest strengths are his powerful wrestling base and excellent takedown ability. He’s decent on the feet, but most of his success has come via controlling position against inferior grapplers. Stamann should have a slight advantage on the feet here in terms of technical ability, but de Andrade’s power could potentially be an equalizer. That being said, I also see Stamann as having better wrestling and cardio. As long as he tucks his chin and doesn’t get overaggressive in exchanges, he should outclass de Andrade as this fight wears on. Cody Stamann by Decision

Karl Williams -435 vs Chase Sherman +320

• Anthony: Heavyweights are set to fight next with Chase Sherman fighting Karl Williams. Originally we had been promised this fight a few weeks ago but Sherman was forced to pull out on the day of. Williams has fought and won five fights since the start of last year. He is just 8-1 as a professional but has a style suited well for this division, utilizing a high volume of takedowns and good top pressure on grounded opponents. He accrued ten minutes of control time against Lukasz Brzeski in his last fight, landing eight of thirteen takedown attempts. Sherman has always struggled with his defensive grappling and I think this is a nightmare matchup for him. He is 1-5 since the start of 2021 with the only victory coming against Jared Vanderaa. It is also worth mentioning Vanderaa had the skill set to outgrapple Sherman but lacked the intelligence to attempt a single shot. That will not be an issue for Williams who will surely be in on a leg in the very first round. I expect him to smush Sherman, or takedown rinse repeat. Karl Williams by Decision
• Nick: Chase Sherman is a relatively dangerous striker and he usually comes out aggressive in most of his fights. His cardio and grappling have proven to be major weaknesses for him at the top level, but he seems re-energized and focused heading into this match-up. He was originally scheduled to take on Chris Barnett in this spot, but he’ll be facing a replacement opponent in Karl Williams who will be taking this fight on just one-week’s notice. Karl Williams is coming off a win in his UFC debut over Łukasz Brzeski. A fight in which he leaded on a grappling heavily gameplan to control position and win convincingly on the scorecards. Williams is 8-1 professionally. He carries decent power on the feet, but he telegraphs many of his strikes and he certainly seems raw in most of his abilities when you watch him on film. Even taking this fight on short notice, it is understandable that Williams is the favorite here. He’s a talented grappler and Sherman has had trouble staying on his feet and getting back to his feet once he is grounded. Given the low-level nature of this match-up, Sherman could be worth a bet as the underdog. Regardless, Williams has a very clear path to victory via his wrestling and off that alone he deserves to be favored here. He should be able to work Sherman to the mat and find a KO via ground-and-pound. Karl Williams by Round Three KO 

Court McGee -220 vs Matt Brown +180

• Anthony: The featured prelim comes at welterweight with Matt Brown facing Court McGee. These are two longtime promotional veterans with Brown making his 30th UFC appearance today. Each man is nearly a year removed from competition with Brown’s last fight being a razor close loss to Bryan Barbarena. I had thought Brown did enough to win what was Fight of the Night at home in Ohio. He is still somebody who will trade with reckless abandon despite seemingly slowing a bit at the age of 42. He may struggle to match the speed and pace of one Court McGee, but I certainly categorize Brown a live underdog in this spot. McGee can spend too long waiting to close the distance, giving opponents opportunities to score in a large number of his fights’ inbetweens. Brown thrives in positions where he can throw elbows and work the clinch making this an extremely compelling fight. I trust the chin of Brown just a bit more than McGee who was sat down by a hook in his last octagon appearance. I’ll have some action on him at +180 or better. Matt Brown by Round Two KO
• Nick: Court McGee likes to pressure his opponents. He’s a decent striker, mostly because he can eat shots in order to throw back his own. He rarely looks crisp on the feet, but his solid chin allows him to find spots that otherwise might not be there for him. He has decent entries for takedowns, and he’s stronger than a lot of the other middling contenders in this division. He’s getting up there in age, but he seems to be in excellent shape. He’s coming off the first KO loss of his career to Jeremiah Wells, but he’ll have a decent chance to bounce back here against an opponent in Matt Brown who also seems to be on the decline. Matt Brown has been on the UFC roster since 2008. He still has his signature KO power, but there’s no denying the fact he’s lost a lot of speed over the years. Brown does a good job mixing vicious knees and elbows into his combinations. He’s the more potent finisher in this match-up, but McGee has a very clear path to victory if he chooses to mix in his wrestling. This is a low confidence play, but Brown has just a 64% defense in the UFC. As long as McGee leans on his grappling he should be able to grind this one out. Court McGee by Decision

Main Card- Starts 3:00pm EST

Alex Morono -230 vs Tim Means +185

• Anthony: The main card opens with veterans Alex Morono and Tim Means. This should be a competitive welterweight bout between the two having combined for more than 40 octagon appearances. Morono has had the better results as of late despite being finished by Santiago Ponzinibbio in his last bout. While Morono is usually the one pushing the pace late in fights, he did get clipped in round three against Ponzinibbio ultimately resulting in that finish. This is a far more favorable matchup facing Means who does not have quite as much sting on his punches as other 170 pounders. Means does well using his length and awkward style to stymie opponents and take control of more gritty fights. He does well using elbows in the clinch and getting advantageous positions in battles up against the cage. Morono is the better volume striker though and likely the one moving forward and setting the pace of this bout. He has grown accustomed to wars just like Means and should not struggle if met with a few moments of adversity. Means does have rather slick grappling but I trust Morono to keep this fight upright and stay safe if he is threatened by a submission attempt. Morono is a second degree jiu jitsu black belt. Alex Morono by Decision 
• Nick: Morono is a well rounded fighter, but his greatest strengths are likely his sheer grit and toughness. He always moves forward, even when he’s taking damage. He has solid cardio, underrated power, and he’s well-versed on the mat as a BJJ black belt. Tim Means is a seasoned vet who does his best work striking in the clinch. He has extremely advanced technical ability, but he’s definitely not as fast as he was earlier in his career. He’s likely capable of taking Morono down here, but I’m not confident he’ll try as Means is getting up there in age and he’s very conscious of his fading cardio. To me this fight feels closer than the line indicates. However, Morono is the rightful favorite. He should be the more powerful striker and I expect he’ll manage range well here. Means is dangerous in the clinch, but Morono’s footwork and constant movement should be able to mostly keep him out of danger. Alex Morono by Round Two KO 

Carlos Ulberg -450 vs Ihor Potieria +325

• Anthony: Next is a matchup at light heavyweight between Carlos Ulberg and Ihor Potieria. Money has poured in on Ulberg over the course of fight week for this bout against the Ukrainian. Black Jag is coming off back-to-back wins by first round knockout. He is a very high level kickboxer that has the edge over most foes in a striking affair. He lands a whopping 8.27 significant strikes per minute with accuracy well above the mean at 62 percent. Portieria is normally game for a brawl but I do not see brute force being enough to earn a win over this quality opponent. Ulberg will pick apart Potieria with counters and force him to rush into takedown attempts. I see his size and power being an issue for Potieria who has yet to face anybody with this much technical skill. The last win for Potieria came over the now retired Shogun Rua, somebody Ulberg would also make very quick work of in the year 2023. I find it hard to imagine this fight going more than ten minutes at the very most. Carlos Ulberg by Round One KO
• Nick: Potieria is primarily a brawler with dangerous offensive striking ability. He is 19-3 professionally, but he really hasn’t been tested extensively at this level. He is explosive in open space and striking out of breaks, but he seems far from refined in terms of his footwork and head movement. He’s coming off a career best win via KO over a legend in Shogun Rua, but that came against a shell of Rua in his predetermined retirement fight. Carlos Ulberg does a good job mixing in feints to trap his opponents. He’s a decorated kickboxer with knockout power in all of his limbs, but he sometimes leaves himself open to take damage in exchanges. He trains with City Kickboxing along with Middleweight Champion, Israel Adesanya under Head Coach Eugene Bareman. He’s coming off three straight wins under the UFC banner, but he’ll be taking a step down in competition here against a mediocre striker in Ihor Potieria. This fight is very likely to take place at striking range, where Ulberg should be several steps ahead of Potieria. The line is getting wide, but an Ulberg KO seems fairly likely. Carlos Ulberg by Round One KO

Ian Garry -310 vs Daniel Rodriguez +240

• Anthony: The featured bout comes at welterweight between Ian Garry and Daniel Rodriguez. This should be a very fun scrap between two fighters with elite boxing and quick hands. Rodriguez was finished for the first time last November, getting choked out by Neil Magny. He is a high level fighter but I do not view him in the same vein as Garry who appears further developed. An intelligent striker like Garry should take advantage of Rodriguez by landing counters inside of the pocket. At range Garry can pick apart D-Rod, utilizing kicks frequently and showing off far more than the basic southpaw boxing Rodriguez displays. Garry also holds an advantage grappling and could certainly look to beat Rodriguez on the mat if he so decides. Rodriguez defends just 63 percent of opponent takedowns and has been grounded in four of his previous five fights. I won’t invest too much in Garry at -310 but he is certainly a confident pick for me. The more technically sound striker should find himself getting his hand raised. Ian Garry by Round Two KO
• Nick: Ian Garry enters this fight as a heavily hyped prospect and a former Cage Warriors Welterweight Champion. He’s still developing as a prospect as he’s only 11-0. However, he already seems to be very well rounded. His striking continues to improve dramatically, he has a solid wrestling base, and enough power standing and ability on the mat to find finishes against a wide range of opponents. Garry fights out of an excellent camp via Kill Cliff FC, sharing the mat with the likes of Gilbert Burns, Michael Chandler, and Shavkat Rakhmonov. Rodriguez has very sharp boxing, which isn’t surprising as he is currently coached by Joe Schilling. He hasn’t really used his grappling much at the UFC level, but he holds a Brown Belt in BJJ via 10th Planet. He’s certainly a well-rounded fighter on paper, but he’s coming off an ugly loss to Neil Magny in which he was dominated on the mat. At 36-years old his career could be entering a downturn, which explains why he’s such a heavy underdog here against Garry. He could pull off an upset here if Garry isn’t careful defensively, but I also expect Garry to lean on his grappling here if he needs to. The line is getting a bit ridiculous, but Garry should be a level above Rodriguez at this point in these fighter’s respective careers. I expect he can pick Rodriguez apart at range, and if he struggles at all he has a solid backup plan via his grappling advantage. I really don’t like the line here, but Garry is the pick. Ian Garry by Decision 

Anthony Smith -110 vs Johnny Walker -110

• Anthony: The co-main event is a light heavyweight contest between Johnny Walker and Anthony Smith. Charlotte is treated to this top ten showdown with huge implications at 205 pounds. Johnny Walker has been looking great, winning both previous octagon appearances by finishing inside of one round. He is the more explosive and dangerous of these two men but that is not to say Smith isn’t a finisher himself. It has been a short while since Smith last fought due to an injury sustained when facing Magomed Ankalaev. He also had a fight fall out with champion Jamahal Hill who instead slid into a bout for the vacant title this year. I am excited to see Lionheart back in action. He is the definition of a well-rounded fighter pairing some elite jiu jitsu with very good striking fundamentals. Smith is great at mixing up his attacks but leading with a potent jab to control the range and workrate. Walker is a very dangerous man early in a fight but I do believe over time the more skilled striker takes over. Smith also has great cardio and the ability to keep sustained pressure into the latter half of his fights. While there is concern with Walker starching Lionheart, the fight could easily end the other way with Walker put out. The Brazilian has been KOdon four occasions and I find it hard to trust his chin at this stage of his career. Anthony Smith by Round Three KO
• Nick: Smith has excellent BJJ, technically sound striking ability and he does a good job weaponizing his cardio and taking over fights in the later rounds. He’s been utilizing his jab much more effectively of late. He’s shown improvements in his footwork as well, but more often than not he finds most of his success when he’s able to mix in his grappling. He is coming off an ugly loss to Magomed Ankalaev, a fight in which he was taken down and injured. He’ll be looking to bounce back here in what should be a more favorable stylistic match-up against Johnny Walker. Walker was once considered a future title contender at light heavyweight, but his stock has plummeted over the past couple of years. He’s extremely gifted in terms of athletic ability, but his fighting IQ leaves a lot to be desired. He carries serious power in all of his limbs, but he’s very hittable in exchanges. He’s become a more measured fighter since he began training under John Kavanagh at SBG Ireland, but many feel that Walker’s hyper-aggressiveness is what made him dangerous when he was winning consistently. He does have some momentum coming into this match-up, coming off back-to-back KO wins over Ion Cutelaba and Paul Craig. This is a fairly linear match-up in that Smith will likely win via Submission if he can take Walker down, and he’ll be on the bad end of a KO loss if he can’t. Seeing as Johnny Walker has just a 58 percent takedown defense in the UFC, I’ll side with Smith here. He should be durable enough to close defense and take this fight to the mat where he’ll have a considerable advantage. Anthony Smith by Round Two Submission 

Jailton Almeida -550 vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik +375

• Anthony: The main event is a heavyweight bout between Jairzinho Rozenstruik and Jailton Almeida. It is a clash between one of the division’s best strikers and a dominant jiu jitsu black belt. Almeida is a rising star, joining the promotion less than one year ago. Already he has won four fights thanks to his relentless pressure grappling. He is massive with rather long reach and the physique of somebody built in a laboratory. Every UFC fight for Almeida thus far has started with a front kick followed by an immediate shot on the legs. He should be able to engage Rozenstruik early here and initiate grappling along the octagon side. Rozenstruik is the heavier man and a much better striker, but I do think he struggles to get any separation today. Almeida can be like glue on his opponents and generally fights a style that is risk averse. While -550 seems a bit steep I only see Almeida losing this fight if he gets flash KOd. Rozenstruik’s 75 percent takedown defense will not hold true over the first ten minutes. He will need to find that killshot early. Jailton Almeida by Round Two Submission
• Nick: Jailton Almeida is coming off dominant wins over Shamil Abdurakhimov, Anton Turkalj, Danilo Marques, and Parker Porter, all of which came via finish. He’s extremely explosive and athletic with solid striking ability and outstanding BJJ. Almeida has shown excellent takedown entries, weight control and sweeping ability. He has dominated most grappling exchanges so far in the UFC and he has shown a very high fight IQ since he signed with the promotion. He’s dangerous everywhere, and he does an excellent job exploiting the weaknesses of his opponents. Rozenstruik is a decorated kickboxer who is most content fighting on the feet. He doesn’t throw much volume, but he is an extremely skilled counter-striker who has shown on several occasions that he has enough power to end any fight with a single punch. While he throws well off his back foot, he sometimes lets fights get away from him as he never pushes much of a pace. He throws powerful high kicks on occasion, but he uses low kicks frequently to keep his opponents at range. The line does feel wide here as this is a heavyweight match-up between two potent finishers. That being said, I do expect Almeida to roll here. Rozenstruik has 75 percent takedown defense in the UFC, but Almeida has a 70% takedown accuracy. It may not come with the first attempt, but I do expect Almeida to ground Rozenstruik where he should be able to finish him either by ground and pound or submission. Jailton Almeida by Round One Submission 

-Anthony Marro

Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_

-Nick Marro

Twitter: @NickMarroDFS

Photo: UFC.com