UFC 285 Preview & Predictions

UFC 285: Jones vs Gane – 3.4.2023 – Fight Predictions and Analysis

Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC 285: Jones vs Gane. This is the best event of the calendar year with Jon Jones making his return here in Las Vegas Nevada. It’s a card with two title fights, and a new heavyweight champion will be crowned. Our analysis includes a pick for every bout from Dynes Sports contributors Anthony Marro and Nicholas Marro.

As coverage continues, we will keep our records up to date below. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick though as records will not reflect confidence. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few.

Current Record

Anthony: 40-29-2 (Last Year 320-187-3, 63%)
Nick: 50-19-2 (Last Year 324-183-3, 64%)

*Fight odds were last updated from Bet99 on 3-4-2023 at 1am EST

Early Prelims- Start 5:30pm EST

Loik Radzhabov -260 vs Esteban Ribovics +200

Anthony: The card today begins at lightweight with Esteban Ribovics facing Loik Radzhabov. This bout was made after the debuting Ribovics had his booking with Kamuela Kirk fizzle. Now he draws a skilled and experienced Radzhabov that poses a more challenging stylistic test. Ribovics is a very skilled striker with good kickboxing and offense as a whole. He is undefeated thus far in his young career but a large number of the wins came against very mediocre competition. I think there are too many defensive vulnerabilities in the game of Ribovics to warrant backing as the underdog here. Radzhabov defends more soundly and appears to be the stronger and more durable man. I see him responding less to Ribovics’ strikes than vice versa, while Radzhabov also holds the advantage when this bout does hit the mat. I expect him to make this a scrappy affair, and to look the superior fighter once this does get into rounds two and round three. Radzhabov seems like a strong pick to open tonight’s action but I won’t be getting involved much at the current odds. Loik Radzhabov by Decision
Nick: We have a matchup opening the card between two fighters making their respective UFC debuts. In spite of this being his first fight for the promotion, Loik Radzhabov already has a lot of quality experience as he’s most recently been fighting for the PFL and EagleFC. He has notable wins over Akhmed Aliev, Chris Wade, and Alex Martinez. Radzhabov is primarily a grappler. He is a competent technical striker who can be dangerous on the feet, but in most of his wins we see him controlling his opponents both on the mat and up against the cage. Esteban Ribovics is coming off a Contender Series win over Thomas Paul. He’s 11-0 professionally, with all of those wins coming via finish. He’s fairly well-rounded with surprising power for his frame. He has decent BJJ, but his takedown defense is suspect at best and in terms of his overall wrestling ability his skills are far from refined. Ribovics will be dangerous early here, but I don’t see him matching Radzhabov in terms of overall skill. Radzhabov should be able to lean into a grappling heavy game plan as he outclasses Ribovics and hands him his first loss. The disparity in the abilities of these fighters on the mat should be dramatic. Loik Radzhabov by Round Three Submission

Farid Basharat -500 vs Da’Mon Blackshear +350

Anthony: Next is a bantamweight contest between Farid Basharat and Da’Mon Blackshear. I am excited to see Farid debuting in the UFC after the excellent run his brother Javid Basharat has gone on. I do not think Farid is quite as sound technically or as capable a wrestler, but these two are an intriguing pair of brothers both undefeated as professionals. I think the counter striking of Basharat is key to victory today as he faces a more volume oriented attack from Blackshear. He does well striking while moving backwards and while this stylistic clash could cause Basharat to throw with low output, it should also find him landing the cleaner and more meaningful strikes. Blackshear is a very game competitor who impressed me quite a bit in his UFC debut. Taking Youssef Zalal to a draw really makes me nervous fading Blackshear at odds as inflated as this. I think he ends up losing over the course of fifteen minutes tonight but it would not surprise me to see Blackshear ruining a whole mess of parlays. His most recent losses came against great competition like Pat Sabatini and Danny Sabatelllo. Farid Basharat by Decision
Nick: Da’Mon Blackshear is a former Cage Fury FC Bantamweight Champion. He’s coming off a respectable Draw in his UFC debut in a tough spot against Youseff Zalal. He is fairly well-rounded, but primarily a grappler. He has solid defensive wrestling ability and he’s mostly excellent in scrambles. He’s also dangerous on the mat offensively with a BJJ black belt, and eight of his twelve professional wins having come via submission. He does a decent job striking, but his ability to string together combinations is fairly limited. He also doesn’t possess much power, having never won professionally via KO. Farid Basharat will be making his UFC debut here. He is 9-0 professionally, most recently securing a win via decision on Dana White’s Contender Series over Allan Begosso. He is the younger brother of Jahvid Basharat, who is a rising contender in his own right. Similarly to his brother, Baharat is highly skilled no matter where the fight goes. He’s going to be the more dangerous and dynamic striker in this matchup, and if Blackshear takes him down I’m confident in Basharat’s ability to work his way back to his feet. The line has gotten a bit out of hand as this is a step up in competition for Basharat. Still, he’s clearly the pick in this spot. Farid Basharat by Decision

Tabatha Ricci -310 vs Jessica Penne +245

Anthony: This is a matchup at women’s strawweight between Tabatha Ricci and Jessica Penne.I have become a fan of Ricci since joining the UFC, winning two fights convincingly and losing her short notice debut to a very sharp Manon Fiorot. She has landed five takedowns in each of her previous two fights and it is largely that wrestling and offensive grappling that makes Ricci such a threat. She is shorter and more compact than most of the women in this division, making Ricci appear as one of the strongest in the cage. She faces 40-year-old Penne tonight, a booking likely to raise Ricci’s stock moving forward. Penne is going to be game to roll with Ricci here and I expect to see her get outclassed despite BJJ usually being her world. Ricci will find takedowns coming with relative ease once again facing an opponent with porous defense against the shot. She will also be the more explosive fighter, making me lean the way of Ricci if she is met with a bit of resistance getting this bout to the mat. She is more likely to reverse positions or work through spots than the aging Penne seems. Tabatha Ricci by Round Two Submission
Nick: Jessica Penne is one of the pioneers of modern women’s MMA, but there’s really no denying she’s past her prime as a competitor. She’s primarily a grappler, with nine of her fourteen professional wins coming by way of submission. She has a fairly high fight IQ, but she can be hittable in exchanges and as she continues to age her durability is becoming a bit of a concern. Ricci was steamrolled in her UFC debut against Manon Fiorot, but it’s tough to get down on her for that performance as Fiorot is one of the more promising prospects in this division. She has since secured impressive wins over Maria Oliviera and Polyana Viana, and it seems the UFC is starting to put their marketing machine behind her as well. Ricci has solid cardio and can fight at a very fast pace. She’s well-rounded, but her BJJ ability is her most refined skill. Her wrestling and striking continue to show considerable improvement in each of her fights, and she’s getting an opportunity here to further boost her stock with a win over a notable vet. Penne will be dangerous in striking exchanges here, but I expect Ricci to secure the takedowns she needs to win on the scorecards. This line is far too wide, but she’s the rightful favorite. Tabatha Ricci by Decision

Cameron Saaiman -270 vs Mana Martinez +215

Anthony: Next is a bout at bantamweight with Cameron Saaiman facing mana Martinez. One of the few weight misses yesterday occurred with Martinez coming in slightly above the 135 pounds limit. It is the second miss for Martinez since joining the promotion, a rather concerning trend. Manaboi has very good hands, with power better than most in this division and intelligent counter striking. He would perhaps hold the technical edge over a 22-year-old like Saaiman but on the feet there is really very little separating these two. Martinez has the cleaner hands but Saaiman’s kickboxing is more diverse and landing with high precision and power never seems to be an issue for him. Today he will need to eat a few big strikes from Martinez but as this fight wears on we should see Saaiman prove to be the more consistent force. He will do better landing strikes on the in-betweens than Martinez and also may elect to bring his opponent to the mat where Saaiman is expected to thrive. Martinez has shown little in terms of his wrestling defense and I could see him fading here in a grueling fight, especially after having a difficult weight cut. Cameron Saaiman by Decision
Nick: Cameron Saaiman is a highly regarded prospect, coming off an impressive win in his UFC debut via KO over Steven Koslow. He’s only 22-years old, but he’s gifted athletically and surprisingly well-rounded for his age. He does a good job moving in and out of his opponents striking range. He wears damage well, has decent power, and it’s expected he’ll continue to show considerable improvement every time we see him fight. He’s an effective wrestler who controls his weight well. It seems he mostly favors grappling for position, but it can be expected as his BJJ develops he’ll become more of a submission threat. Martinez is a fairly technical striker with fast twitch movement and surprising power for a bantamweight. His style is unconventional, but he does have solid footwork and he generally does a good job parrying the strikes of his opponents. Eight of his ten professional wins have come via KO. The line feels too wide here as Saaiman is still raw in his abilities. That being said, he’s the more well-rounded fighter in this matchup. Saaiman has a very clear path to victory if he leans on his grappling here. I also expect he’ll have the better gas tank and as long as he’s defensively sound on the feet he should have Martinez covered no matter where this one goes. Cameron Saaiman by Round Three Submission

Ian Garry -750 vs Kenan Song +500

Anthony: The early prelims close with a bout at welterweight between Ian Machado Garry and Kenan Song. The UFC is working to slowly build up Garry, an exciting striker who represents Dublin and the future of Irish MMA. The undefeated prospect has gone 3-0 since joining the promotion and really looked refined in his most recent octagon showing, beating Gabe Green at UFC 276. Garry has exceptional counters and excellent offensive weapons from an orthodox, karate stance. His long limbs allow him to close range very quickly on the offensive. The height also allows him to flow freely and control a majority of exchanges we see take place on the mat. Song is a striker that will be looking to test himself against Garry, landing at a higher volume or perhaps chasing that knockout punch. I see him struggling a lot with range management and eating a healthy dose of counters from Garry, but nonetheless he is more live than +500 would ever imply. It is a matchup Garry should absolutely win at this stage of his career, I just do not feel like getting involved much personally given where these odds are going to close. He is never one to chase a finish and thus props reliant on Garry getting a stoppage are of no interest to me. Ian Garry by Round Three KO
Nick: Ian Garry enters this fight as a heavily hyped prospect and a former Cage Warriors Welterweight Champion. He’s still developing as a prospect as he’s only 10-0. However, he already seems to be very well rounded. His striking continues to improve dramatically, he has a solid wrestling base, and enough power standing and ability on the mat to find finishes against a wide range of opponents. He’s coming off an impressive win over Gabe Green by convincing decision. A fight in which his footwork and ability to strike efficiently at range, both seemed far better than they ever had before. Garry fights out of an excellent camp via Kill Cliff FC, sharing the mat with the likes of Gilbert Burns, Michael Chandler, and Shavkat Rakhmonov. Song has Knockout power, but he doesn’t throw much in terms of volume. Nine of his nineteen wins have come via knockout, but he hasn’t won a fight since February of 2020. He could pull off an upset here if Garry isn’t careful defensively, but I also expect Garry to lean on his grappling here if he needs to. The line is getting a bit ridiculous, but Garry should be a level above Song at this point in these fighter’s respective careers. I expect he can pick Song apart at range, and if he struggles at all he has a solid backup plan via his grappling advantage. Ian Garry by Round Two KO

Preliminary Card- Starts 8:00pm EST

Marc-Andre Barriault -150 vs Julian Marquez +120

Anthony: The preliminary card begins with a middleweight contest featuring Julian Marquez and Marc-Andre Barriault. There is a lot of volatility surrounding a fight like this, causing most bettors to stay away this week as little to no change in odds has taken place. The one constant I can identify is the cardio of Barriault and the advantage he usually can gain as a result. The constant forward pressure and high volume attack from Barriault makes him the slight favorite today facing Marquez who is not as good pacing himself and surviving into the latter half of his scraps. Marquez has also succeeded against a lower level of competition generally speaking. His most recent wins came facing Maki Pitolo, Sam Aley and Darren Stewart. All three of those athletes are no longer with the promotion. I worry about Barriault’s durability as he’s been finished in both most recent losses, but honestly Marquez may need that knockout to win here today. I do not see him going back and forth with Barriault for prolonged periods in this fight and realizing sustained success. Marc-Andre Barriault by Decision
Nick: Barriault pushes at a serious pace. He has decent power and does a good job putting pressure on his opponents. His durability allows him to easily close distance and while his striking isn’t all that technically sound, he’s powerful enough to win exchanges on the feet. His greatest attribute is certainly his cardio, as many of his victories come via taking damage easy and waiting for his opponents to drain their gas tanks then taking over late. He’s coming off an ugly loss to Anthony Hernandez, a fight in which he was dominated on the mat until he was ultimately finished via submission in the third round. Marquez is a powerful striker with a decent grappling base, but he can sometimes be overaggressive and end up on the wrong side of exchanges. He usually starts somewhat slow, but he has decent cardio and he’s shown an ability to score takedowns against the majority of his opponents. This is a tough fight to call, but I’m siding with Barriault. He’s the more technically sound fighter with better fundamentals and I expect that should be enough to beat a sometimes sloppy opponent in Marquez. Marc-Andre Barriault by Decision

Amanda Ribas -125 vs Viviane Araujo +100

Anthony: Next is a women’s flyweight bout with Amanda Ribas taking on Viviane Araujo. These are two solid contenders in the 125 pound division with Araujo most recently fighting to a decision against title challenger Alexa Grasso. They are each 2-2 in their last four appearances but Araujo has had the better account of herself, proving more capable than Ribas against similar level competition. Araujo is the more technically skilled striker and carries better overall power. Ribas is volume oriented on the feet but not really a threat to finish fights at kickboxing range due to what is evidently a lack of precision. She is very well versed on the mat, but so is fellow Brazilian Araujo who has won just as many bouts by submission. While I agree with oddsmakers that this is a bit of a coin flip, Araujo is the side I lean slightly here given what we have seen out of both lately. Araujo is the more likely of these two to find a finish and I also view her the more durable woman, having been finished just once before in her career. Viviane Araujo by Decision
Nick: Ribas is a fan-favorite as an aggressive fighter with outstanding offensive grappling ability. She is a black belt in BJJ, with five of her eleven professional victories coming by way of submission. Her striking continues to improve, but she’s very hittable in exchanges and the strength of her chin is questionable at best. Araujo should have a power advantage here. Her strikes are explosive, she has an excellent front kick and throws powerful combinations. She works well behind her jab and her footwork is advanced. She is a talented offensive grappler as a BJJ black belt, but she doesn’t really have the wrestling base or takedown ability to get the fight to the mat consistently. I could certainly see this one going either way, but I prefer the value we’re getting on Araujo. Her advantages over Ribas in striking here should be more profound than I expect Ribas’ will be in grappling. Viviane Araujo by Round Three KO

Dricus Du Plessis -235 vs Derek Brunson +185

Anthony: This is a bout at middleweight with Derek Brunson facing the oncoming Dricus Du Plessis. Since debuting in 2020, Du Plessis has gone 4-0 under the UFC banner with impressive showings worthy of performance bonuses. He is a very powerful striker with an unorthodox style of boxing and good sustained pressure on the feet. I am a huge fan of his overall skill set, grit and of course aggressive mentality. Brunson provides a unique stylistic matchup for Du Plessis, especially at this stage of his career. Derek Brunson has reigned as one of the division’s best wrestlers for quite some time but now in his latter career he is even more dependent on the takedown than ever before. In just his previous three fights, Brunson has attempted more than 30 total takedowns. He will be rushing forward here and looking to blanket Du Plessis who has only been shot on twice since joining the promotion. Du Plessis should have the upper body strength to fend off Brunson’s attacks early, and more sloppy shots as this fight goes late. Du Plessis will need to land a few clean strikes to the jawline of Brunson who has had real issues absorbing damage over these past several years. Just a few stuffed shots should do the trick, securing Du Plessis another victory inside of the octagon. Otherwise expect a boring showing from Brunson, successfully landing takedowns and running down the clock. Dricus Du Plessis by Round Two KO
Nick: This is only Du Plessis’ fifth fight under the UFC banner. However, he already has plenty of experience as a highly regarded prospect with a fairly impressive resume at 17-2. A former KSW Middleweight Champion, Du Plessis throws a ton of volume on the feet. He has a lot of power in all of his limbs, but he’s also competent on the mat with ten professional wins coming via submission. As dangerous as Du Plessis is, he’s very awkward in his movements and his footwork sometimes leaves him in positions to be countered. Brunson is a talented grappler with a powerful wrestling base. He’s found a lot of success since switching camps to Kill Cliff FC, having won five of his last six fights. Brunson averages more than three takedowns per fifteen minutes and I fully expect him to try to continue to match those numbers here. While this fight is a tough one to call, the paths to victory for each fighter are relatively clear.. If Brunson can lean on his wrestling to control position and avoid spending too much time on the feet with Du Plessis, he’ll be in an excellent spot to pull off the upset. On the other hand, if Du Plessis can stuff Brunson’s takedowns or catch him with a powerful strike on an entry, he will be in an excellent spot to secure a win via KO. Du Plessis certainly has age and athleticism on his side in this matchup, but I still think Brunson can pull it off. He’ll need to secure takedowns both early and often, but this is the first time Du Plessis has had to face a wrestler of Brunson’s caliber. His chin is certainly a concern here, but I’m taking a shot on the underdog. Derek Brunson by Decision

Cody Garbrandt -175 vs Trevin Jones +140

Anthony: The featured prelim is a bantamweight contest with Trevin Jones facing Cody Garbrandt. We saw Garbrandt finished at flyweight in his most recent octagon appearance. Now more than a year later he is back at 135 pounds and finally making this walk after numerous fizzled bouts. Jones actually took this matchup on short notice after Julio Arce withdrew a few weeks ago. I am not eager to back him on an 0-3 losing skid, but the appearances for Jones have been a bit more competitive than what Garbrandt is showcasing as of late. While Garbrandt has always been a talented striker with fast hands, his chin has dissipated over the past half dozen outings. He now seems to respond poorly with every shot he ends up eating. Jones is a powerful man that could certainly place strikes and rock Garbrant, but he is also a top tier jiu jitsu practitioner that had the edge over Garbrandt if this matchup were to hit the mat. I believe that while he is not as technically skilled as Garbrandt, durability and timing alone could win him a fight largely contested on the feet. While I am not confident picking a side in this one I am never going to recommend laying juice on Garbrandt at this stage of his career. Jones seems like a very live underdog and I expect to see him drop Garbrandt at least once in this scrap. Trevin Jones by Round Two KO
Nick: Cody Garbrandt, the former bantamweight champion, has been struggling to get back in the win column. His chin and durability seem to have mostly dissolved, as he’s now lost five of his last six fights. At his best, Garbrandt is a highly technical striker who can frustrate his opponents with precision and speed. He has a decent wrestling base as a long-time member of Team Alpha Male, and he’s also shown to have surprising power for his limited frame. Trevin Jones is extremely athletic and one of the more powerful strikers at bantamweight. He does a good job mixing in kicks into his combinations and his power on the feet has allowed him to build a name for himself in a very crowded division. As dangerous as he is offensively, he doesn’t really throw much volume. He often lets fights get away from him if he’s not finding early success, and his defensive grappling is mediocre at best. There are reasons to like both of these guys and I wouldn’t be shocked if Jones pulled off the upset, especially considering the question marks we have surrounding Garbrandt’s durability. That being said, I’m backing Garbrandt. He’s had more success against this top-level competition and as long as his chin holds up here this feels like his fight to lose. He’s the more aggressive striker with better head movement and footwork. I also expect he can lean on his grappling at opportune times if he needs to. Cody Garbrandt by Decision

Main Card- Starts 10:00pm EST

Bo Nickal -2000 vs Jamie Pickett +950

Anthony: The main card opens with the highly anticipated debut of Bo Nickal, as he faces Jamie Pickett at middleweight. He is the largest favorite on today’s card, sitting at -2000 with a professional record of just 3-0. Nickal is a three time NCAA wrestling champion at Penn State. He finished his collegiate wrestling career with a record of 120-3 and since transitioned full time to mixed martial arts. Very rarely do we see such credentialed wrestlers enter the octagon, but usually the move yields an enormous amount of success. The same can be expected from Nickal here in his early career as he faces rather lackluster competition he should absolutely breeze through. Pickett is an opponent hand picked by the UFC to give Nickal a bout perceived to be easy. While a lot of what Pickett can do seems far from mediocre, his grappling is certainly no match for somebody this strong and well versed on the mats. Nickal should shoot in the first minute of this bout and quickly begin setting up a position to find a choke. While it is difficult to extrapolate value from a betting line this wide there are certainly props to consider in a spot like this. I will have my money on the u1.5 in this matchup as well as a small bet on Nickal by submission. You want to tune in to see the grappling offense this kid really does possess. Bo Nickal by Round One Submission
Nick: Bo Nickal is widely considered one of the best prospects in the sport of MMA. He’s making his UFC debut here with a 3-0 professional record, coming off back-to-back Contender Series wins. Each of those victories came via submission only :57 seconds and 1:02 into each fight, respectively. What Nickal lacks in professional MMA experience, he more than makes up for in wrestling credentials. Nickal was awarded the 2019 Dan Hodge Trophy as the nation’s most outstanding collegiate wrestler for that year. He was a finalist in the 2020 Olympic Team trials, and a three-time NCAA Division I National Champion. Nickal trains at American Top Team where he’s been working on his striking extensively with the likes of Mike Brown and Jorge Masvidal. He’s shown to have true one-shot power, he’s an explosive athlete and he’s expected to climb the rankings at 185 rather quickly. Pickett carries serious power on the feet, but defensively he leaves a lot to be desired. He absorbs more than five strikes per minute and he’s starting to develop a reputation as a slow starter. He’s coming off back-to-back losses to mediocre competition, and it seems clear that the UFC is setting him up to fail here. Likely only brought in to boost Nickal’s stock, Pickett has been finished in three of his last five fights. The line is a bit comical in this spot, so I’d rather back Nickal to win in round one and also to win via submission. This should be nothing short of a layup for him in his UFC debut. Bo Nickal by Round One Submission

Mateusz Gamrot -220 vs Jalin Turner +175

Anthony: Next is a lightweight bout between Jalin Turner and Mateusz Gamrot. This is going to be an excellent scrap. These two men are part of the title picture at 155 pounds and in a division loaded with contenders I see both sticking around for the next few years, and winning against the world’s very best. Gamrot has already beaten the likes of Arman Tsarukyan and Diego Ferreira. He fell short in his most recent appearance facing Beneil Dariush but Gamrot has proven to be a monster grappler, landing more than four takedowns per fight on average. It is a great stylistic clash facing a striker like Turner who has thus far defended 77 percent of opponent takedown attempts. The power and combinations of Turner make him a deadly opponent to face on the feet and it will be imperative for Gamrot to shoot early and often here to dictate the outcome of this matchup. I really like his knack for getting low and undercutting opponents with very deep single leg attacks. Gamrot will also likely find takedowns today coming easier than a few of his previous matchups just given the longer frame of Jalin Turner. It is difficult for me to expect Turner to recover much at all if he does get dragged to the mat and held down in the first round. It is quite clear he has what it takes to win this fight kickboxing, but I won’t be betting on Turner even at attractive underdog odds. I view Gamrot as the more complete fighter and the much more talented offensive grappler here. Mateusz Gamrot by Decision
Nick: Jalin Turner is a well rounded fighter who’s greatest strength is his surprisingly long reach and length for the division. He does an excellent job using his long frame to keep opponents at a distance. He has enough power in his shots to end a fight early with a single strike, but it’s mostly the volume with his jab that makes him so effective. All thirteen of Turner’s professional victories have come by way of finish. At 27-years old, it seems Turner is hitting his prime. He seems to have filled out his wiry frame, his punches are landing cleaner and he’s made dramatic improvements in his BJJ and wrestling. He’s coming off five consecutive wins, all by finish. Gamrot is an excellent chain grappler with a wide range of effective takedown entries. He does an excellent job getting low in pursuit of single legs. He has ridiculous cardio, a solid chin, and excellent instincts both scrambling and in striking exchanges. While he doesn’t really have true one-punch knockout power, he lands meaningful strikes that force his opponents to respect him no matter where the fight goes. He’s coming off a hard fought, but decisive decision loss to Beneil Dariush. Prior to that he had been on a four-fight win streak and many still have him pegged as a future title contender. Turner is certainly a dangerous underdog in this spot, but I expect Gamrot can lean on his wrestling to keep him on the defensive. As long as he doesn’t spend too much time trying to strike at range, his advanced experience in this matchup should shine through. Mateusz Gamrot by Round Three Submission

Shavkat Rakhmonov -500 vs Geoff Neal +375

Anthony: The featured bout is a welterweight scrap between Geoff Neal and Shavkat Rakhmonov. Neal missed weight badly yesterday, coming in a full four pounds over the limit of 171. It is not a good look for someone who has had multiple weight misses in the past, now facing one of the division’s fastest rising stars. Rakhmonov is undefeated at 16-0 with all professional wins coming by way of stoppage. He enters winning half of his total fights by submission and the other half all knockouts. The guy is a monster in terms of sambo and quick transitions on the mat, looking like the better grappler in every UFC appearance thus far. He will surely have the edge in that department today against a fighter in Neal known for his heavy hands and boxing, not at all for his grappling chops. A sophisticated striker like Rakhmonov could always keep this a fight at kickboxing range and emerge the winner, but the path of least resistance is surely one where Rakhmonov can get Neal to expose his neck. I see Rakhmonov weathering the early storm of Neal and staying alert defensively, never staying in the pocket for too long. He should prove more advanced than Neal as this fight wears on later, and after a tough weight cut it may be a challenge for Neal to even keep pace for an entire fifteen. I do believe Rakhmonov is a legitimate top five talent, and I do not plan on betting against him until he meets his match in terms of wrestling and jiu jitsu. Neal is not the style opponent that seems likely to blemish his thus far perfect record. Shavkat Rakhmonov by Round Two Submission
Nick: Rakhmonov comes into this fight undefeated. The 28-year old Sambo specialist already has notable victories over Da Un Jung, Neil Magny, and Carlston Harris. He’s a very dangerous grappler on the mat with a solid wrestling base and creative BJJ. His striking looks a lot more developed than you’d normally see out of a guy so new to the UFC, but he relies on precision more than power. He’s very tall, but he has a strong judo base, effective sweep takedowns and looks sharp in the scramble as well. The one knock on Rakhmonov is that he’s hittable, but he’s shown solid durability and I expect we continue to see improvements in his defense. Neal fights out of an excellent camp in Fortis MMA. He’s a powerful striker who is extremely advanced in terms of his technical ability. The one major knock on him is that he’s tentative at times. He doesn’t always put out consistent volume so he sometimes ends up falling behind in his fights if he can’t find an early finish. Additionally, his defensive grappling is somewhat suspect as he was notably dominated by Neil Magny on the mat, a fighter Rakhmonov dominated in the same way his last time out. There is no denying that this is a step up in competition for Rakmonov. The line has gotten a bit out of hand, but this is a test I expect he’ll pass. He should be able to hang on the feet with Neal long enough to secure the takedowns he needs to work for a submission. It’s also notable that Neal missed weight for this fight by four pounds. There is a chance he could be injured or compromised. Shavkat Rakhmonov by Round One Submission

Valentina Shevchenko -800 vs Alexa Grasso +535

Anthony: The first of two title fights takes place at women’s flyweight between the champion Valentina Shevchenko and challenger Alexa Grasso. While on a 4-0 run entering this fight, Grasso seems like a legitimate test for the long reigning champion. Her fast hands make her a difficult opponent to deal with, largely due to that speed and the overall offensive output Grasso throws. Normally she can box the ears in on opponens by forcing prolonged exchanges in the pocket and circling women into her power hand. I do not see her having any of that success against Shevchenko though. The champion has looked untouchable, with her only losses coming to Liz Carmouche in 2010 and in two tight decisions versus Amanda Nunes. Her striking is amazing, with insane speed and accuracy. She really is a sniper and I see her picking apart Grasso from range in this fight. The weapons of Shevchenko are more diverse and advanced than the crisp boxing of the Mexican. In the larger cage, Shevchenko will have plenty of room to work her powerful kickboxing. She is well versed on the mat too, making any path to victory for Grasso difficult to pinpoint. Shevchenko is one of the all-time great and I expect a bounceback performance from her coming off what was a split decision win. Taila Santos proved a tough stylistic test, but now Shevchenko has an opportunity to really show facing a boxing heavy opponent instead. I think she cruises here tonight. And Still. Valentina Shevchenko by Decision
Nick: Grasso is coming off impressive wins over Viviane Araujo, Joanne Wood, Ji Yeon Kim and Maycee Barber. She’s been showing dramatic improvements everytime we see her fight, so it should come as no surprise that she’s getting a title shot here on one of the biggest cards of the year. Grasso is primarily a striker. She works well behind her jab. Her footwork has come a long way since her UFC debut and she’s now considered one of the more talented pure strikers in the division. Her grappling continues to improve and her BJJ offensively has become a solid weapon for her in certain matchups. Valentina Shevchenko is one of the best female strikers to ever step in a cage. She’s a highly technical kickboxer with extremely powerful kicks and enough speed to land a variety of combinations against anyone in this division. She’s coming off a very close decision win over Taila Santos, a fight in which she was outgrappled at times and taken down consistently. This is a much different matchup than the last, so the wide line for Shevchenko is likely justified here against a primary striker in Grasso. Valentina is an outstanding counterpuncher and most of her opponents are hesitant to engage with her. Grasso’s aggressive style is likely to result in her downfall here Grasso will be dangerous at boxing range and I expect her to have moments early. Still, over the course of five rounds I expect Shevchenko to be better everywhere. And Still. Valentina Shevchenko by Decision

Jon Jones -180 vs Ciryl Gane +145

Anthony: The main event will decide a new heavyweight champion as Ciryl Gane faces the returning Jon Bones Jones. More than three years removed from action, the former light heavyweight champion is back in a title fight after a long and calculated move to a higher weight. Jones is 248 pounds and now completely filled into his massive frame. He is going to hold an even larger presence controlling this octagon and managing distance facing a mobile striker tonight. Although it would be intense theater watching these two kickbox all evening, Jones is a former national junior college wrestling champion. His best attribute is his offense grappling and sickening ground and pound from top position. He will have opportunities to clinch with Gane and find traditional takedowns as well as lateral drops available in doing so. Gane does not have the best takedown defense and although his grappling is some of the more impressive at heavyweight, it is nothing compared to Jones’. This is a fight Gane can win by using speed and agility, keeping space with Jones and staying away from the pocket. He will need to fire off his kicks all night and test how Jones feels absorbing crisp muay thai from a true heavyweight. I just see him struggling to get inside on Jon early despite being so much quicker and more active as of late. Jones has a four-inch reach advantage and a better knowledge of distance than anyone ever in the sport. I expect to see Gane’s output a bit stymied, throwing shy of his average 5.11 significant strikes landed per minute. It is hard to bet Jon Jones here on such an extensive layoff and honestly lackluster end to his reign at 205 pounds, but I absolutely will not bet against the guy. We have never seen Jones beaten and I cannot see him allowing anyone to do so. The guy is a dirty fighter and a drug cheat that will find a way to win no matter what. At -180 he is a bet that I am endorsing. And New. Jon Jones by Round Four KO
Nick: Ciryl Gane is one of the most athletic fighters there is in the world at heavyweight. He moves extremely fast for this division, possessing excellent footwork and an overall athleticism that is usually considered rare for the weight class. He comes into this matchup off a solid KO win over Tai Tuivasa, a fight in which he was knocked down for the first time, but also a fight in which he showed excellent durability and cardio. Gane manages range extremely well. He is very difficult to hit and his footwork is extremely advanced for someone his size. Jon Jones will be returning to action here after a more than three-year layoff. Widely regarded as one of the greatest competitors in the history of the sport, Jones is 26-1 professionally and 15-0 in title fights. He’ll be moving up a weight class here and fighting at heavyweight for the first time, which makes this an especially intriguing matchup but also a difficult one to call. At his best, Jones is outstanding everywhere. He’s a creative and dynamic striker who is beyond outstanding in the clinch. He’s also a talented wrestler who has shown he can take down a wide range of opponents. He has effective BJJ, and he also does an excellent job controlling his opponents up against the cage. If Gane can keep this standing he’ll be very live for the upset here. Whether by KO or decision, I expect he’ll win most of the striking exchanges at range. That being said, Jones should have a major grappling advantage here. Gane has just a 55 percent takedown defense in the UFC and Jones averages just under two takedowns per fifteen minutes. Jones is by far the best wrestler Gane has ever faced, so as long as he leans on that part of the game he should have a clear path to win here. Given the countless questions surrounding Jones leading into this fight I wouldn’t suggest betting heavily. That being said, his stylistic advantages here should reveal him as the rightful favorite. And New. Jon Jones by Decision

-Nick Marro

Twitter: @NickMarroDFS

-Anthony Marro

Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_

Photo: UFC.com