NFL teams will traditionally live or die by the quality of their starting quarterback. Success is more likely to be on the horizon if the man under centre is a quality starter. Conversely, a bad or less-than-good quarterback is going to make life that much harder for you. It’s sink or swim and, eventually, the end goal is to have a quarterback that can help you win a Super Bowl. Finding that quarterback is every front office’s goal, but it doesn’t always have to be an immediate task.
Right now, the list of teams in the NFL who are searching for a long-term starter is longer than the list of teams with one. There are a few teams in the trial stages of that process – the Miami Dolphins and San Francisco 49ers are examples – but even they could say that if the right situation presented itself, they might explore the market once more.
And why shouldn’t they at least consider it? The job of an NFL general manager is to put your team in the best position to succeed. That means exploring all avenues. You don’t have to go through with it, but at least open the door and take a peek.
The 2023 quarterback class is definitively better than last year’s group. That class produced just one starter in Kenny Pickett – the only quarterback selected in the first two rounds of the draft for the first time since 2000. Guys like Sam Howell and Desmond Ridder could find themselves in a position to start in 2023, but that’s no guarantee.
However, the 2023 class is led by Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud. Both quarterbacks have the intangibles and skill sets to lead a franchise early in their careers. If you have an early pick in the draft, like the Houston Texans, or have the ability to trade up like the Indianapolis Colts – you’re sitting pretty to get one of the top two guys.
After Young and Stroud, there are Will Levis and Anthony Richardson – two incredibly exciting talents with high ceilings, but some very noticeable blemishes that make a top-10 selection make you feel just a little bit uneasy. But such are the risks.
A franchise with a great coaching staff could convince themselves that they have the tools to get the best out of one of the tier-two guys, while another team could panic and put a raw quarterback in an untenable position from the get-go. After all, they say the worst time to draft a quarterback is when you desperately need one. Look no further than the Washington Commanders or the New York Jets for proof of that.
Eventually, the bell will toll, as it does for every team. You can’t succeed at the NFL level without an above average quarterback. But the urgency for every team differs. Some teams have a longer leash when it comes to accelerating the future of the franchise, whereas for others, the future is now. No team is ever “just a quarterback” away from winning, but for a team like the New York Jets, a new quarterback would put them in a much better position to succeed than…let’s say the Houston Texans.
Not every team will operate with urgency in the 2023 off-season. And not every team should. There are benefits to kicking the can down the road another year. One of the most interesting cases for that is the Las Vegas Raiders. The team finished with a disappointing 6-11 record in 2022 after loading up to compete in the off-season by adding star receiver Davante Adams and pass-rusher Chandler Jones. The offense was borderline top-10 while the defense…was not.
The conclusion, though, was that the Raiders were going to move on from Derek Carr and take the franchise in a newer, fresher direction. Right or wrong, it’s a fair move. The Raiders made the playoffs just once in the Carr era and were falling increasingly further behind the Kansas City Chiefs. Sentimentally, a change probably hurt a portion of the fanbase, but it was needed.
Where the Raiders go next, is up for debate. They have the No. 7 pick in the 2023 draft and are in a decent position to draft one of the second-tier guys, or even trade up for Young or Stroud. But here’s the thing, they don’t need to fall prey to the pressure of urgency. After cutting Carr, the Raiders are walking into the off-season with roughly $46 million worth of cap space – call it $38 million if you’re putting aside money for rookie contracts.
Financially, that’s a great position to be in. It’s flexible which allows you to build a roster and opens up a world of avenues to explore. But the reason the Raiders have so much cap is that the roster frankly needs a lot of work. The defense is bad. The offensive line needs to be re-tooled, and of course, they don’t have a quarterback. They can grab one on a rookie contract this year if the right guy falls to them. But what if he doesn’t?
It’s not hard to convince yourself that unless you’re absolutely sold on a quarterback prospect in 2023, it might be better to wait until 2024 when Caleb Williams and Drake Maye declare for the draft. Both guys would likely be 1st and 2nd off the board in 2023.
There’s no harm in punting on that decision this year. Spend some of that cap space on players who can help improve the defense, whether that means signing a guy like Jamel Dean to improve the secondary, or a few shrewd moves like bringing in rotational pass rushers such as Arden Key or interior defensive behemoths like Poona Ford. After that, just wait and let the rest of the cap roll over until you’re enticed by yet another free-agent class. It’s not good business to blow all your cap in one go anyway. Give yourself some flexibility.
The same can be said for the Falcons as well. They’re in a similar situation where the be-all to end-all isn’t finding a quarterback this year. They can see what Desmond Ridder brings to the table in 2023 and reassess down the line while improving the roster along the way. Jumping the gun and drafting Will Levis or Anthony Richardson could bring riches, but putting them in the best position to succeed is encouraged and it’s hard to say that either the Falcons or the Raiders can do that in 2023.
Afterall, urgency isn’t for everyone. Nor should it be.
-Thomas Valentine
Twitter: @tvalentinesport
Photo: Tennessee Titans. This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported license.