The next 18 games are going to be a grind for the Ottawa Senators. As of today, they’re 4 points out of a wildcard spot behind the Pittsburgh Penguins. The odds of the team making the playoffs aren’t high, but much more realistic than they were a month ago. They’ve certainly made a case to be in the conversation, but there’s still a good chunk of the season left. With the remaining 18 games, how can the Senators make the playoffs?
Dividing the remaining games into 4 categories based on the strength of the opponent. Let’s start off with “business as usual”
March 11th: Vancouver Canucks (Away)
March 30th: Philadelphia Flyers (Home)
April 2nd: Columbus Blue Jackets (Away)
Unfortunately, there’s only three games in this category. While 2/3 games are on the road, these opponents have no chance of making the playoffs. All three teams were also sellers at the deadline. With the Sens latest 5-0 loss to the Blackhawks, the team can’t afford to underestimate squads that are full of players trying to secure their next contract. If the Sens want to ultimately reach the postseason then they have to secure points from the low hanging fruit.
Unrealistic:
March 21st: Boston Bruins (Away)
March 25th: New Jersey Devils (Away)
April 4th: Carolina Hurricanes (Away)
These are the games you’d love to see, but probably wouldn’t bet on the Senators winning. Granted, they’ve beaten Boston twice this year, but they were both on home ice. They’ve lost both their games against New Jersey and the one game against Carolina just a few weeks prior. These are all top 5 teams in the league and all games are on the road. If they pick up 3/6 points, many would still consider that a win.
Winnable games:
March 12th: Calgary (Away)
March 14th: Edmonton (Away)
March 16th: Colorado (Home)
March 18th: Toronto (Home)
March 23rd: Tampa Bay (Home)
April 1st: Toronto (Home)
April 8th: Tampa Bay (Home)
April 10th: Carolina (Home)
Most of these games are at home against tough opponents or on the road against talented, but often inconsistent competition. Barring any drastic changes, the Sens won’t be competing for a wild card spot with any of these teams. Their next two games will be against Calgary and Edmonton, whom they can beat if they’re on their game.
They did just that last year, beating both teams on the road during their Alberta swing. The Sens have a 19-12-2 record at home this year and have beaten some great teams, so it’s not inconceivable to see them win a majority of the games on home soil. Unfortunately, 4 home games will be hosting the Toronto Maple Leafs and Tampa Bay Lightning, who are currently competing for #2 in the Atlantic.
Toronto is currently plagued by injuries, and Tampa Bay is inexplicably in freefall at the moment, so perhaps this will be a case of catching their opponents at “the right time”.
Crucial:
March 20th: Pittsburgh (Away)
March 27th: Florida (Away)
April 6th: Florida (Home)
April 13th: Buffalo (Away)
While the other 14 games are important, if the Senators fail to pick up points in these contests then their postseason hopes will take a serious blow. March 20th will be the team’s most important game to date against the Penguins. Don’t count out Florida as well, who are basically in the same spot as the Senators. The last game of the season will be interesting, because that will come against the Buffalo Sabres. It has the possibility of being a win-and-you’re-in scenario, but one of the Islanders or Penguins will have to stumble for this scenario to happen.
When analyzing past #8 seed teams in the Eastern Conference, 98 points is usually the standard to make the playoffs. The Senators currently sit at 70 points, despite being at an impressive 33 wins. This means they’d have to go 14-4-0 to hit that 98 point marker. Even if we move the goalposts slightly and say 96 or 94pts will be enough, that still means winning 2 out of every 3 games down the stretch.
With 3 games already marked as unrealistic, this doesn’t leave a lot of runway for the team to make up points. If the Senators are going to claim a wild card spot, they’ll first need to handle their own business, but also get some help from the hockey Gods as well. The odds aren’t necessarily in their favour, but this team has earned the right to be in conversation for the playoffs.
-Damian Smith
Twitter: @Damian__Smith
Photo: Scorpion0422. This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported license.