UFC Vegas 69 Preview & Predictions

UFC Vegas 69: Andrade vs Blanchfield – 2.18.2023 – Fight Predictions and Analysis

Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC Vegas 69: Andrade vs Blanchfield. Action returns to Las Vegas this weekend after a spectacular card on pay-per-view. Our analysis includes a pick for every bout from Dynes Sports contributors Anthony Marro and Nicholas Marro.

As coverage continues, we will keep our records up to date below. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick though as records will not reflect confidence. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few.

Current Record

Anthony: 27-21-2 (Last Year 320-187-3, 63%)
Nick: 34-14-2 (Last Year 324-183-3, 64%)

*Fight odds were last updated from Bet99 on 2-18-2023 at 1am EST

Preliminary Card- Starts 4:00pm EST

Clayton Carpenter -325 vs Juancamilo Ronderos +250

Anthony: Opening the card today is a flyweight bout between Clayton Carpenter and Juancamilo Ronderos. It is the UFC debut for Carpenter and just the second appearance for Ronderos in the promotion after what was a nearly two year hiatus. Ronderos suffered an injury that kept him out of competition but also faced suspension from USADA following his debut because of a sample positive for cocaine. He is an experienced fighter with some solid offensive grappling, but I have not really seen anything special from Ronderos in his last few fights. He is likely to be outclassed by Carpenter here on the feet. The undefeated prospect is very quick and works far more efficiently from range than his opponent Ronderos. I like the volume that Carpenter is capable of throwing and the overall skillset he possesses, hailing from a great gym in The MMA Lab. He should hold his own just fine against Ronderos if this fight hits the mat for a prolonged period. I’m not very confident picking this bout with a suspicion that Ronderos improved in his time out of action. However, it feels pretty clearly like Carpenter’s fight to lose. This kid seems like a prospect to watch moving forward in the men’s flyweight division. Clayton Carpenter by Decision
Nick: Juancamlo Ronderos is just 4-1 professionally. He’s coming off an ugly submission loss in his UFC debut to a tough opponent in David Dvorak, a fight that took place back in May of 2021. As poor of a showing as he gave in that spot, it’s somewhat understandable as Dvorak is a very skilled opponent and a tough out for anyone outside of the top-10 in the division. Prior to that loss, Ronderos had been coming off a split decision win to Eric Shelton for WXC. He’s lacking experience at the professional level, so his long layoff leading into this fight could prove to be more of a plus as he’s had significant time to improve his game. Clayton Carpenter will be making his UFC debut here, coming off a solid Contender Series win over Edgar Chairez. Similarly to Ronderos he doesn’t have much professional experience, but he’s been fighting tough competition with LFA, winning most of his fights via stoppage. Carpenter is a strong grappler with advanced BJJ offensively. He’s a decent striker at range capable of putting power behind his strikes, but he throws from odd angles which can leave him open to be countered. It feels like the UFC is trying to get Carpenter started off on the right foot here. He’s going to be the stronger and more athletic fighter in this match-up and I expect he’ll have Ronderos covered no matter where this fight takes place. Clayton Carpenter by Round Two KO

A.J. Fletcher -300 vs Themba Gorimbo +235

Anthony: Next is a bout at welterweight between AJ Fletcher and Themba Gorimbo. This is the UFC debut for Gorimbo who was scheduled to face Billy Goff here this evening. I believe Fletcher poses a much stiffer test to the newcomer compared to the Contender Series’ alum Goff. While Fletcher is thus far 0-2 inside the promotion, he has been facing a decent level of competition. Ange Loosa got the better of Fletcher in his last time out but Gorimbo is far less dynamic an opponent and less adept when bouts hit the mat. Fletcher has a clear advantage in any wrestling exchange, likely relying on his grappling more defensively than offensively today. Fletcher is the more technical striker and while he does mix in quite a few looping hooks, he has far more efficient attacks than his 32-year-old opponent. I see him landing good volume and power on Gorimbo, causing the debutant to shoot out of desperation early on. I do not trust Fletcher’s cardio in a fight expected to go the distance but a finish will very likely materialize here today. I have already seen Gorimbo beaten and finished in the past. AJ Fletcher by Round Two KO
Nick: Fletcher has a solid wrestling base and explosive power striking out of breaks. He’s still not quite technically refined on the feet, but he’s gifted athletically and continues to prove every time we see him in the cage. He’s coming off back-to-back losses under the UFC banner, but they both came to tough outs in Ange Loosa and Matthew Semelsberger. In spite of those results, he gave a decent showing of himself in those match-ups and given his very young age it’s safe to expect he continues to show considerable improvements in all facets of his game. Fletcher is good pretty much everywhere, but he struggles to transition between his striking and grappling. He’s capable of taking advantages against the weaknesses of his opponents, but against other well-rounded fighters he struggles. Themba Gorimbo will be making his UFC debut here, but he’s already 32-years old. He’s a powerful striker on the feet capable of throwing a wide range of creative attacks, but his defense and durability have shown to be weaknesses rather than strengths. He likes to wrestle, but his takedown entries are not technically sound which makes it easy for most of his opponents to stay standing. Gorimbo will have a reach advantage here, but he doesn’t use it very well. I expect as long as Fletcher can maintain a steady pace he should dominate this fight wherever it goes. AJ Fletcher by Round One KO

Phillipe Lins -220 vs Ovince Saint Preux +175

Anthony: Next is a light heavyweight matchup between Phillipe Lins and Ovince Saint Preux. We had originally been promised this bout in December of last year but Lins withdrew. These are not the highest level 205 ers, with OSP experiencing a significant decline from the form he had been in a few years prior. His last matchup was a sloppy victory over Shogun Rua at UFC 274. His speed is declining, but so is his physicality. We see less explosive bursts out of Saint Preux compared to in earlier career fights. I do not think either can be trusted at this juncture and yet Lins sits as a sizeable favorite over OSP. The Brazilian has quicker hands and better overall boxing, but I do not see that advantage being nearly as decisive as these odds imply. He looks to be leaner than usual and likely less effective than OSP in exchanges along the fence. Lins may also struggle to deal with the advanced grappling that OSP possesses if this fight is to ever hit the canvas. It feels like a coinflip to me, so I am happy to bet Saint Preux at plus money. He is going to land a good handful of counters here regardless of the fight outcome. Ovince Saint Preux by Round Two Submission
Nick: Phillipe Lins entered the UFC as a highly regarded heavyweight prospect. He is a former PFL Champion at Heavyweight. He won that title against a low level of competition, so it’s no surprise he’s now fighting at 205 lbs at the UFC level. Eight of Lins’ fourteen professional wins have come via KO. He looked the best he ever has at weigh-ins for this match-up, and I’m encouraged by the fact that he’s been training out of a solid gym in American Top Team. OSP was once a top contender, but his career has been on a major downturn of late. He’s coming off a narrow decision win over Shogun Rua, a boring fight in which he never really got going. There is no denying he has been inconsistent, but he still has a lot of power in his strikes. Additionally, his signature Von Flue choke has to be a concern for any of his opponents. OSP still has finishing, even this late in his career. However, as long as Lins can keep this fight on the feet he should be able to outpoint OSP and pick him apart at range. Additionally, I expect him to be the more aggressive fighter in this match-up and he should have the better cardio as well. The line feels too wide, but Lins is the pick. Phillipe Lins by Decision

Khusein Askhabov -155 vs Jamall Emmers +125

Anthony: This is a very compelling fight at featherweight with Jamall Emmers facing the debuting Khusein Askhabov. The undefeated Askhabov is a Russian prospect with a flawless record of 23-0. While he has been signed to the promotion for quite a while now, Askhabov has not made an appearance fighting in nearly three full years. His last appearance was an impressive win by flying knee at a WWFC event. However, that victory came against a 3-1 opponent. Askhabov’s entire resume is padded with the only solid win coming over Donovan Desmae. He is obviously a talented athlete and dangerous striker in the pocket, I just think in totality Emmers will prove to be superior. We have already seen Emmers share the cage with elite competition the likes of Giga Chikadze, Cory Sandhagen, Julian Erosa and Pat Sabatini. He lands an average of nearly six significant strikes per minute and should find success fighting Askhabov here at range. Emmers holds a reach advantage of five inches and should look quite big in the cage facing a former bantamweight. I think this will be a very competitive fight, but Emmers will keep this upright and pull away from Askhabov as this bout goes late. He has proven capable of fighting a full three rounds against UFC caliber competition. The same cannot be said for Askhabov. Jamall Emmers by Decision
Nick: This is the first time we’ve seen Jamall Emmers in the cage since August of 2021. He’s been working through multiple injuries at the UFC PI, so it’s tough to know which version we see of him this time around. Emmers is a rangy striker with surprising power for his frame. He’s decent on the feet, but he’s also a cerebral wrestler who has shown he can takedown a wide range of opponents. The one major knock on Emmers is his fighting IQ. He almost always seems to be winning fights early until he makes more decisions and gives them away. Khusein Askhabov comes into this match-up with an impressive 23-0 professional record, but most of those wins have come against very low level competition. He’s well-rounded as an effective chain wrestler with solid BJJ and decent power on the feet, but it’s tough to gauge how good he is as he’s yet to face anyone near UFC level. Emmers will have an experience advantage here, and I expect he’ll be dangerous early. However, I’m going to guess we see Askhabov lean on a wrestling heavy game plan until he can eventually find a submission. This is a low confidence play, but I’m siding with the debutant. Khusein Askhabov by Round Two Submission

Mayra Bueno Silva -500 vs Lina Lansberg +375

Anthony: Next is a women’s bantamweight contest between Lina Lansberg and Mayra Bueno Silva. It is jarring to see Bueno Silva as the card’s largest favorite but this is a matchup where she should certainly cruise. She is a scary woman at 135 pounds, aggressively brawling in most of her scraps. Her striking has gotten very technical and while she may not be super flashy in general, her power can take over in fights. Lansberg is now 40-years-old and 10-7 as a professional. She is now on a three fight losing skid and it is hard to imagine any path to victory for the Elbow Queen today. Any situation where Lansberg can throw her sharp elbows will be areas of the clinch Bueno Silva should thrive. It is also apparent that Lansberg will not be shooting given the threat Silva possesses with her jiu jitsu. It feels like we are getting some one way traffic here. Mayra Bueno Silva by Decision
Nick: Bueno Silva is a brawler. She can be dangerous on the feet, but she also carries sneaky offensive grappling ability as a BJJ black belt. She doesn’t really have much wrestling ability, so it’s rare we see her shoot for takedowns, but whenever she’s grounded she’s very capable of finishing her opponent. Lina Lansberg has a solid overall resume, but she is coming off three consecutive losses for the first time in her career. Similarly to Bueno Silva she prefers to stand and strike, but she lands only 2.74 significant strikes per minute in the UFC. Lansberg is durable, having gone to decision in each of her last seven fights. Bueno Silva is the aggressor in most of her fights. She likes to move forward and she generally does a good job forcing her opponents to fight off their back foot. She’ll have to be careful here, as Lansburg is decent at striking in close range, but I do expect her to land the more frequent and damaging strikes. Additionally, if this fight hits the mat she’ll be very live to score a submission. Mayra Bueno Silva by Decision

Nazim Sadykhov -200 vs Evan Elder +160

Anthony: The featured bout is a lightweight matchup with Evan Elder facing Nazim Sadykhov. This was fortunately moved up the fight card as we can expect an exciting back and forth with these two young men. Elder lost his UFC debut to Preston Parsons while up at welterweight, a short notice fight to punch his ticket in the promotion. He performed better than expected, fighting off five submission attempts and surviving to see a decision. Some of the reversals we saw out of Elder in that bout make me excited for today’s matchup to get onto the mat. Sadykhov is a talented grappler training with the team at Serra Longo BJJ. Really though we have seen Sadykhov happy to throw hands and win matchups decisively with finishes on the feet. He is conditioned greatly and throws with a lot more power than what Elder appeared capable of. I think Sadykhov does well in the pocket against Elder, landing on the inside of his two-inch edge in reach. I won’t be betting Sadykhov at -200 in what I expect to be a brawl but certainly I think he emerges victorious. Nazim Sadykhov by Decision
Nick: Nazim Sadykov will be making his UFC debut here, coming off an impressive Contender Series win over Ahmad Suhail Hassanzada. Sadykhov is a dynamic striker on the feet. He has a solid wrestling base and a good understanding of BJJ when his fights hit the mat. Training at an early age, Sadykhov is one of these next generation fighters that has solid ability no matter where his fights go. He trains out of an excellent gym via Longo MMA and he’s the first fighter on the UFC roster to represent Azerbaijan. Elder fights out of Kill Cliff FC, training with the likes of Michael Chandler, Ian Garry, and Gilbert Burns. He’s fairly well-rounded with a 7-1 professional record, coming off a loss in his UFC debut to Preston Parsons. Elder took his debut fight on very short notice, fighting up a weight class as a means to gain entry to the promotion. He was man-handled for three rounds in that spot, but he showed solid durability and a willingness to go out on his shield. This is a tough fight to call as both of these fighters are fairly unproven. Elder has a path to an upset if he can lean heavily on his wrestling, but it seems more likely Sadykhov can mostly keep this fight standing where his technical advantages on the feet should shine through. Nazim Sadykhov by Decision

Main Card- Starts 7:00pm EST

Alexander Hernandez -225 vs Jim MIller +180

Anthony: The main card opens with a lightweight scrap between Jim Miller and Alexander Hernandez. It is tough predicting any of these top five fights tonight but this particular matchup has been one I am very back and forth on. Miller has found a way to win three bouts in a row, finishing UFC newcomers along with a much more established name in Donald Cerrone. He is the all-time leader in UFC wins, fighting in the promotion since 2008 and throwing down with multiple Hall of Famers. I think he has a very good shot at winning against a volatile opponent like Hernandez. After suffering a knockout loss to Billy Quarantillo in December, Hernandez abandoned the 145-pound division to return at lightweight today. He matches up well with Miller on the feet, landing with similar power and much more speed. Miller is usually most dangerous in the first round of fights, as is the case with Hernandez. At this age Miller’s output is dwindling by the start of round two, but Hernandez also lacks the cardio and volume management to survive late in most scraps. It is a contrarian pick but A-10 is the side I ultimately landed on. I think he can stymie the attack of Hernandez who will likely be a bit too reckless in the opening few minutes. If Hernandez does in fact take a more measured approach, Miller’s chances of winning late will only be increased. Jim Miller by Round One Submission
Nick: Alexander Hernandez was once considered a future top contender. He’s a powerful striker who is fairly well-rounded, but lately he seems to wait for fights to come to him. He returned to a more aggressive style his last time out against BIlly Quarantillo, but when he didn’t find a finish he faded quickly and was ultimately KO’d in the second round. Hernandez has KO power on the feet, he’s a decent defensive grappler but his constant movement and aggressive style often leaves him tired and vulnerable in later rounds. It’ll be key for him to secure a finish early here, because if he doesn’t I don’t have much confidence in his gas tank holding up. Jim Miller is one of the more accomplished veterans on the UFC roster. He’s a decent striker, but he’s found most of his success on the mat. He has excellent BJJ and nineteen of his thirty-five professional wins have come via submission. Miller is certainly past his prime, but he is on a three-fight win streak. He’s won via 2nd round finish in each of his last three fights, scoring KO wins over Erick Gonzalez, Nikolas Motta, and most recently a submission win via guillotine choke over Donald Cerrone. If Hernandez can’t find that early finish here Miller will be very live for an upset. That being said, I don’t think Miller will be able to weather that early storm. Alexander Hernandez by Round One KO

William Knight -125 vs Marcin Prachnio +100

Anthony: Next is a light heavyweight contest with William Knight facing Marcin Prachnio. Both Knight and Prachnio enter this bout on a 2-2 stretch. They are solid fighters in this 205 pound division but a bit unpredictable on the basis of fight to fight. Prachnio is usually going to keep distance and strike on the outside with opponents, utilizing advantages in length and his footwork to score points. This matchup just feels like trouble drawing into a more explosive Knight. We have seen Knight do just fine in standup affairs, landing massive blows but also intelligently attacking opponents both high and low. His kicks carry more power than those of Prachnio and I believe he will fare better absorbing the low strikes too just given his physical composition. Pick Em odds seem reasonable in a bout that remains standing, but Knight should also find success on top of Prachnio if he elects to grapple. Knight has averaged two takedowns per fight in the UFC and Prachnio becomes a much easier puzzle to solve if he can bring the fight there. I do not feel confident to put much money on this scrap but Knight is my pick. I see him taking control of this smaller cage at the Apex. William Knight by Round Three KO
Nick: Prachnio is a decent striker at range, but he leaves himself open to counter shots. He is often there to be hit in lengthy exchanges, but at his best he does a good job fighting on the outside of the cage while circling away from the power of his opponents. William Knight is built like a linebacker. He’s short for the division, but he carries a ton of muscle. He has an extremely powerful base with decent grappling ability and KO power on the feet. Many of Knight’s knockout victories have come after he was losing or behind on the scorecards. He is more than willing to put himself in difficult positions in order to throw and land that knockout punch. He does a decent job stringing together powerful combinations and he’s shown continuous improvement on the feet. All that being said, he’d be wise to lean on his grappling in this match-up. I see Prachnio as the better technical striker in this match-up, but Prachnio has just a 53 percent takedown defense in the UFC. I expect Knight to execute a wrestling heavy game plan early, keep Prachnio guessing on the feet until he catches him for a timely knockout. William Knight by Round Two KO

Jamal Pogues -260 vs Josh Parisian +210

Anthony: The card continues with Jamal Pogues fighting Josh Parisian. I really am not excited to see these two throw down but Pogues seems to have a little more upside than your usual 9-3 heavyweight. He has a grappling advantage over a large portion of this division and that is the case here in his debut now facing Josh Parisian. Usually we see Parisian find success controlling opponents on the mat but that will not be the case today against a blackbelt. I think there is a good chance Parisian gets submitted if he elects to engage in grappling exchanges here. Even on the feet though, Pogues should have a slight edge given his speed and the jab he flings out. I think he is in much better shape than Parisian and more likely to find himself a win on the scorecards if he does go there. Jamal Pogues by Decision
Nick: This is a low level heavyweight match-up, but both of these guys are more athletic than they look. Parisian throws a lot of spinning attacks, which is a strange thing to see from a heavyweight. These moves can be effective, but he also compromises his gas tank if he can’t put his opponents out early. Jamal Pogues will be making his UFC debut in this spot, coming off a Contender Series win over Paulo Renato Jr. Pogues is athletic for a heavyweight. He works well behind his jab, and he’s shown in certain match-ups he is more than willing to lean on his solid wrestling base. This is one of the tougher fights on the card to call, but I’ll side with the favorite. Pogues should be able to land more volume behind his jab and he can lean on his wrestling if he finds himself falling behind on the feet. Jamal Pogues by Decision

Zac Pauga -285 vs Jordan Wright +220

Anthony: The co-main event comes at light heavyweight with Zac Pauga taking on Jordan Wright. I have bet on Jordan Wright in all six of his UFC bouts thus far and he has gone 2-4. The guy is a very talented offensive striker, but terrible on the defensive. All four of those losses saw Wright wobbled and finished inside of two rounds. His chin is just not that solid and leaving so many openings in search of attacks ultimately has Wright vulnerable way too often. Pauga is not really a guy known for his power, but he does throw high volume. He got knocked out in his last appearance on The Ultimate Fighter but overall Pauga is a durable guy that can grind out some opponents in this division. As Wright moves back up to 205 pounds I do not imagine his chin is improving much. Pauga lands with rather high accuracy and at the rate I expect him to throw in this bout I feel like a knockout materializes. Wright again will also be dangerous throwing attacks in the clinch and a karate stance at distance, but I decided I won’t be losing money betting on him anymore. Too reckless. It is a bad number for a low-level athlete like Pauga but surely he gets the job done tonight. Zac Pauga by Round Two KO
Nick: Zac Pagua comes into this fight with a narrow 5-1 professional record. He was a finalist as heavyweight on the most recent season of the Ultimate Fighter, where he was KO’d by Mohammed Usman. As ugly of a loss as that was, it is somewhat forgivable as Pauga is not a natural heavyweight. He’ll be returning to his proper division at 205 in this match-up, and it is worth mentioning that he looked excellent at weigh-ins. He fights out of a strong camp in Elevation Fight Team, where he is one of the main training partners for heavyweight contender Curtis Blaydes. Pagua lacks some power, but he is technically sound on the feet, he puts out decent volume, and he continues to show improvements in his grappling. Wright is powerful and athletic, but he seems to fold when he’s met with adversity. He’s a rangy striker with true knockout power, but defensively he leaves a lot to be desired. He’s more than willing to eat shots to throw them, but his durability is questionable at best as three of his last four outings have resulted in losses inside the distance. As the line suggests, I see Pauga as the more technically sound and promising fighter in this match-up. With Pauga coming down a weight class and Wright moving up one, I expect Pauga should have enough strength and power to put Wright up against the cage until he finds a finish. Another low confidence play on a low level fight, but Pauga is the side. Zac Pauga by Round Two KO

Jessica Andrade -125 vs Erin Blanchfield +100

Anthony: The main event is a women’s flyweight bout between Erin Blanchfield and Jessica Andrade. Blanchfield had been scheduled to main event this card against Taila Santos but visa issues resulted in that scrap’s cancellation. Now on just a week notice it will be Andrade stepping in to face the rising prospect. Blanchfield is 10-1 as a professional with her only loss coming against Tracy Cortez by split decision. She is only 23 years old but proving to be a force in this division, coming off wins by finish against Molly McCann and JJ Aldrich. While Blanchfield is refined in all positions, her best work since joining the UFC has been predominantly seen in her offensive grappling. It will be interesting to see how she approaches the takedown here against an opponent in Andrade likely to stay very close inside of the pocket. Blanchfield has good striking but we saw her lose a few boxing exchanges against the likes of Aldrich. When facing Andrade she is likely going to be outclassed in terms of both power and technical skill. Andrade appeared to be in phenomenal shape just a month ago when she beat the brakes off Lauren Murphy. Fighting at home in Brazil, she landed 231 significant strikes. She also defended all fifteen of Murphy’s takedown attempts. Of the three weight classes Andrade has competed in, clearly her best takedown defense comes at 125 pounds. I see her keeping this fight on its feet and overwhelming Blanchfield with her output. Since 2015, Andrade has only lost to UFC champions. Blanchfield may have the potential to win a belt in the future but I do not think she is ready to get locked in there with these upper echelon women quite yet. Jessica Andrade by Round Three KO
Nick: Erin Blanchfield is coming off impressive wins over Molly McCann, Miranda Maverick and JJ Aldrich. She’s primarily a grappler with a solid wrestling base, decent technical ability on the feet and an extremely high Fight IQ. She’s fairly slow and plodding when she strikes, but she puts out a lot of volume. She does an excellent job using her strikes to set up her takedown attempts and once she’s on top she does a good job using her weight to hold position. She continues to make considerable improvements as she’s only 23-years old, and many have her pegged as a future title challenger at 125 pounds. Andrade will be the more powerful striker in this one. Her only recent losses have come against champions or former champions, all of whom are amongst the best strikers in women’s MMA history. Andrade fights out of a compact stance and she’s easily one of the most powerful punchers in women’s MMA. She lands nearly 7 significant strikes per minute in the UFC. She’s taking this fight on short notice, but she looked excellent at weigh-ins and she’s had a lot of success in the past when fighting without a full training camp. Andrade has a solid 73% takedown defense, and I expect she makes it very difficult for Blanchfield to close the distance on her here. Blanchfield could dominate if she can get her wrestling going early, but it seems more likely than not that Andrade can use her powerful strikes to keep her opponent at a distance. Another tough fight to call, but I’m siding with the experience and power advantages of Andrade. She feels like the value side here, even taking this fight on short notice. Jessica Andrade by Round Two KO.

-Nick Marro

Twitter: @NickMarroDFS

-Anthony Marro

Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_

Photo: UFC.com